Can Japan Make a Comeback?

Since the beginning of the 1990s Japan has experienced economic stagnation. The economy had been allowed to overheat in the 1980s and a bubble had been built up. When this burst, there was massive asset‐deflation, which led to a banking crisis. The bad debts were not faced up to effectively. Japanese banks could not achieve high enough margins to recapitalise themselves, and the government was for a long time reluctant to intervene effectively. The shock made economic agents more pessimistic, which led to an imbalance between savings and investment‐demand. Excess savings were placed abroad and used to finance a domestic fiscal deficit, but this was not enough to close the gap and sustain growth. To be able to run a large current account surplus the yen needed to depreciate, but this was not achieved due to expectations about a future appreciation. The strategy to get out of the liquidity trap would include credible inflation targeting and yen depreciation. Monetary policy should have an inflation target well above zero per cent. Such macroeconomic measures need to be complemented by structural reforms such as deregulation of financial services, competition policy and reallocation of public investments. The Japanese development model with close connections between firms and banks needs to be reformed. Japan should be able to achieve stable growth again, but since the catch‐up phase is over one would not expect growth in Japan to be higher than in other developed countries, even if Japan undertakes the needed reforms.     

Heterogeneity in performance within the bank holding company sector: Evidence and implications

The performance of banks affiliated with the holding company sector has been heavily investigated. Empirical studies have sought to determine if the alleged efficiency of holding companies does in fact exist; and if such efficiency outweighs the anticompetitive effects introduced into the banking structure. Research methodologies, nevertheless, have tended to view the holding company sector as homogeneous in its performance characteristics as compared to independent banking. In this study, however, it is found that there is considerable heterogeneity in performance within the holding company sector. The findings have implications for the direction of future research as well as the formation of public policy in banking.     

Problems and challenges facing the islamic banking system in the west: The case of the UK

This study investigates the main problems, challenges, and opportunities facing Islamic banking in the United Kingdom. The study reports the results of interviews that were undertaken with senior officials of several key financial institutions who have had many years of experience in dealing with Islamic banking. Our interviews revealed that, although by strict definition Islamic banks do not currently exist in the UK, London is one of the major centers for Islamic banking and finance. It is apparent that the experience of previously established Islamic institutions, such as Al‐Baraka, has made other institutions realize that it is possible to provide Islamic banking services in the UK under nonbanking regulations. The interviews also revealed that the main problem that Islamic banking faces in the UK is heterogeneous clients and potential clients. Moreover, regulatory hurdles, competition from conventional banks, and lack of adequately qualified and trained personnel exacerbate the situation. The study concludes by identifying opportunities such as e‐banking that may have a significant impact on the future of Islamic banking in the UK. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Why on Earth Should Foreign Banks Invest in Africa's Financial Services Sector? Evidence from Financial Multinationals in Ghana

While sub‐Saharan African countries have been able to attract some degree of resource‐seeking foreign direct investment (FDI) due to their abundant natural resources, financial FDI inflows have proved to be elusive for the region, in spite of the widespread financial‐sector adjustment programs that offer attractive incentive packages for financial multinational corporations (MNCs). Literature surrounding the determinants of FDI inflows has mainly focused on manufacturing and real production activity. We analyzed the root causes of the weak administrative and institutional framework in Africa's banking industry, using Ghana as a case in point. Focusing on two financial MNCs as case studies, this article validates the significance of a thorough qualitative investigation in evaluating the explanations as to why most foreign banks do not invest in sub‐Saharan Africa and why the few that do have relatively insignificant operations. The study also reveals that despite the far‐reaching reforms, there are several structural constraints and deficiencies placed on financial MNCs that affect the size of the business they can conduct and their future investment decisions. One of the major issues prior to the financial‐sector reforms in Africa was disintegration, and the restructuring was not designed to create an attractive location for foreign capital; hence, the low financial FDI inflows to Ghana in particular and Africa in general. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Central Banks: Confronting the Hard Truths Discovered and Tough Choices Ahead

Central banking has faced new levels of complexity since the onset of the financial crisis. Central banks might have saved the world economy from plunging even further, but their unconventional actions created risks that require continued vigilance. This paper presents six “hard truths” that must remain at the forefront of central banking policy for the indefinite future. They imply new and largely unexplored risks and require central banks to take important measures to protect from their realization.     

江门市三农问题现状及对策研究

江门市三农问题主要体现在农业基础设施脆弱,农产品加工流通体系不健全,集约程度不高;农村公共服务体系不完善,土地承包管理滞后,沼气工程建管服务相对滞后,农民收八低,农民素质不高,妇女权益问题没有得到解决,应加强基础设施建设,优先农业产业结构和区域布局,加强农产品流通体系建设,拓宽农民增收渠道,加快农村沼气发展,规范土地流转,保障农村出嫁女权益。     

Economic policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk

At present, the structural contradiction between Economic Financialization and the real economy's long-term weakness has become increasingly prominent. As China enters a “new normal” stage of economic growth, the real investment rate drops, non-financial enterprises continuously allocate resources to the shadow banking system. The financial economy becomes increasingly divorced from reality. This leads us to the questions: will the shadow banking behavior of non-financial companies exacerbate the risk of stock price crash risk? How does the increase in economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk?This article uses non-financial listed companies' data from 2007 to 2017 and conducts empirical analysis to answer this question. The study finds that companies engaged in high-leverage, high-risk shadow banking business exacerbate stock crash risk. This effect is only pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and low social trust regions. The increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty positively impacts the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking business and stock price crash risk. The theoretical mechanism is as follows: the rise in economic policy uncertainty amplifies the positive relationship between shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and stock price crashes by increasing bank loans, investors' sensitivity to external information, risk cross-contagion, and inefficient investment mechanisms. Various robustness tests do not change the research conclusion. This paper has important theoretical and policy guidance significance for reviewing the existing diversified shadow banking system and preventing systemic risks.     

哈大齐工业走廊金融服务外包产业集聚区发展问题探析

随着国际服务外包市场的快速发展,未来哈大齐工业走廊金融服务外包市场具有强大的发展潜力。银行业应全方位支持服务外包产业发展,为服务外包企业拓展更多的直接融资途径。同时,要抓住有利时机,充分考虑服务外包产业特点和实际情况,配合优惠财税补贴政策。稳步有序地开展金融服务工作,努力通过金融支持,寻求自己新的盈利增长点。     

The West and China: Shake‐up in global banking?

The global recession of 2007–2009 is altering the structure of the global banking industry. Many Western banks suffered after the fallout of the subprime mortgage market in 2007 and are having to respond to the policy ramifications of the crisis and recession. China's banks, however, have undergone performance improvements in a number of areas, both leading into and during the crisis, and they are now emerging as significant players in the global banking market.¹ This “shake‐up” in global banking is occurring in five areas: independence, profitability, market focus, business models, and talent. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

What's in a relationship? The case of commercial lending

This article presents a survey and an analysis of the academic literature on relationship lending to small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is noted herein that relationship lending depends on soft (non-quantifiable) information, while other “lending technologies” depend on hard (quantifiable) information. Based on relative benefits and costs, relationship lending may be best suited for some types of SMEs, with alternate lending technologies better matched to others. Also discussed in this article are some interesting managerial and public policy issues. On the bank management dimension, relationship lending may create a special challenge for risk managers. On the public policy dimension, evidence suggests that relationship lending may be better delivered by smaller community banks; banking industry consolidation could, however, threaten the presence of such providers. Counter-intuitively, it is possible that banking industry competition may not be the best environment for relationship lending. Finally, this article highlights potentially interesting differences in the relative importance of relationship lending and the other lending technologies across countries with different financial architectures, and examines a potentially powerful link between relationship lending and monetary policy and other monetary shocks.     

Evaluating Enterprise Policy Interventions in Africa: A Critical Review of Ghanaian Small Business Support Services

Enterprise policies play a central role in economic development across Africa, but more effective, evidence‐based policy evaluation is required to inform future interventions. The paper makes two contributions: (1) to filling this gap in our understanding and (2) to developing more rigorous and appropriate evaluation methodologies. The issues are examined through an empirical study into nonuse of small business support services in Ghana. Survey evidence from 253 owner–managers is complemented by interviews with owner–managers and service providers. The paper concludes that policy evaluation in Sub‐Saharan Africa would benefit from multimethod approaches to address limitations in official data sets and to facilitate more in‐depth understanding.     

Internationalization of multinational banks: a study of foreign direct investment in seven Latin American countries

The article attempts to explore and contrast the different factors that influence the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational banks. Employing eclectic theory, an estimation model with panel data from seven Latin American countries is set to test the proposed hypotheses. The results highlight an increase in foreign assets, removal of banking restriction, banking concentration, and capital cost differential in the local banking system as determinants of specific location advantages for attracting banking FDI. Other factors such as cultural proximity and crisis also have a significant impact on banking FDI. Discussions and implications are debated before conclusions are drawn for a future research agenda.     

An Exploratory Study of Managers' Perspective of Work‐Life Balance in Nigeria: A Case Analysis of the Nigerian Banking Sector

This study describes an exploratory research of managers' perspective of the concept of work‐life balance (WLB) policies and practices in Nigeria. This is done through in‐depth case studies of 20 banks in the banking sector. The data set is comprised of responses from 102 middle line managers in the Nigerian banking institutions. A review of the extant literature on WLB initiatives in the banking sector revealed that there is a dearth of knowledge on WLB policies and practices in an African context. In an attempt to fill the gap in the literature, this study examines the range and scope of WLB practices, managers' perception of WLB, and the forces helping or constraining to shape the choices of work life balance practices and policies. The findings reveal that there is diversity in terms of how middle‐line managers understand and experience WLB initiatives in Nigeria. Another finding highlights the practice of favoritism in most banks using WLB initiatives. In addition, the study shows that cultural sensitivity affects how WLB is appreciated and utilized. The study suggests some policy implications in the form of support for WLB policies in this context. © 2013 Crown copyright.     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

A POST‐KEYNESIAN STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL FOR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCK ON BANKING BEHAVIOUR

We try to make Keynes' approach compatible with an endogenous theory of the money supply. For that purpose, the principle of liquidity preference is generalized within a competitive banking framework. Private banks can impose a monetary rationing independently of the central bank. Then, we analyse the consequences of a monetary policy shock on the financial behaviour of banks. We clarify the dynamic process between the monetary policy and net investment within a Minskyan approach. First, we build a Post‐Keynesian stock‐flow consistent model with a private‐bank sector introducing more realistic features. Second, we perform some simulations.     

当前国有银行改革的政策风险与政策启示--兼论外汇储备注资的货币扩张效应

当前以外汇储备注资开始的国有银行改革试点蕴含着很高的政策风险.在微观层面,政府所有(或控制)的股权结构能否衍生出健康良好的银行公司治理机制,能否真正划清政府与银行之间的界限,本身存在疑问;在宏观层面,货币化的操作方式会加剧甚至诱发宏观不稳定.国有银行的风险归根结底是一种系统性的制度风险,是一种道德风险,最终要通过全面的体制转轨和健康、持续的经济增长来消化.     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

“后危机”时代中国银行业的竞争政策

对银行特殊性的认识导致人们对银行业竞争政策产生了一些误解。中国银行业的竞争政策建设还十分薄弱,在＂后危机＂时代,尤其需要加强对银行业竞争政策的建设。银行业的竞争政策可分为供给边的竞争政策和需求边的竞争政策,对需求边的竞争政策,中国目前急需加强消费者保护政策和降低消费者转换成本的政策;对供给边的竞争政策,中国目前急需加强确保可竞争性市场的进入与退出规则的建设和利率市场化改革建设。     

A SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH MODEL WITH EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

We introduce efficiency‐wage unemployment in a model of growth with endogenous technical change. Our research aim is twofold. First, we try to provide an analytically tractable model of growth with efficiency‐wage unemployment that can be viewed as alternative to the standard models of growth and search unemployment. Second, we try to analyze the steady‐state effects of some labor market policies on unemployment and growth. We find that a positive relationship between growth and unemployment exists and that the effectiveness of any labor market policy aimed at improving the performance of the labor market crucially depends on how individuals discount future income.     

The Implications of WTO and GATS for the Banking Sector in Africa

In this paper we assess the implications of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) for the banking sector in African signatory countries. With emphasis on the free trade element, we first review the relevant provisions of the GATS for banking services and the main exemptions held by African countries. We then analyse the main efficiency indicators for a sample of the top banks in 18 African economies for the period 1997‐1998. We also use univariate statistics to analyse the dispersion of the key bank pricing and liquidity indicators in these economies for the period 1994‐1998. The main findings imply that although full liberalization, implicit in the WTO and GATS protocols, will lead to a substantial shake‐up of the African banking industry. However, provided they have an appropriate regulatory framework and allow sufficient lead time, most African countries have little to fear from liberalization at least in terms of the continuing existence of a locally owned banking industry; and indeed, these countries could reasonably expect to be able to restructure and compete, at the very least in African‐wide or regional markets.