Risk-Sharing and Benefit Smoothing in A Hybrid Pension Plan

Abstract

A hybrid pension plan with an explicit formula for sharing risk between the plan sponsor and the members is proposed. The performance of this plan is analyzed using a modified version of the model used by Dufresne (1988). Formulas for the variance of the contribution income and benefit outgo are derived, assuming investment returns are independent and identically distributed. The performance of the hybrid plan is compared with a defined contribution (DC) plan providing the same expected retirement benefit. It is shown that the hybrid plan is more efficient in the control of investment risk, and that this gain in efficiency is greater when “lifestyle” investment strategies are adopted in the DC plan. Modifications to the proposed hybrid benefit structure that might be required for a real plan are suggested.     

Florida's Pension Election: From DB to DC and Back

During the year 2002, the State of Florida's 600,000 public employees were given the choice of converting their traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan into an individual‐account defined contribution (DC) plan with full control over asset allocation and investment decisions. To mitigate some of the risk and uncertainty in the decision, the State granted each employee electing the DC plan an additional option to switch back (i.e., change their mind once) at any point prior to retirement. This option has been labeled the 2nd election by the State and the cost of reentry is fixed at the accumulated benefit obligation of their pension entitlement, which is the present value of the life annuity. Our article presents some original analytic insights relating to the optimal time and financial value of this unique 2nd election. Although our model is deterministic in nature, we believe that it provides a number of intuitive insights that are quite robust. Our results can be contrasted with Lachance, Mitchell, and Smetters (2003) . We estimate that the increase in retirement wealth that arises from having the 2nd election is equivalent to at most 30 percent in future value, and only when utilized optimally. Furthermore, for most State employees above the age of 45, the 2nd election has little economic value because the DB plan dominates the DC plan from day one. Of course, it remains to be seen what percent of Florida's 600,000 employees will elect to behave rationally with their newfound pension autonomy.     

Getting Feedback on Defined Contribution Pension Plans

With the growth of private and public defined contribution (DC) pension plans around the world, market rates of return should increasingly play a large role in the retirement patterns of individuals. The reverse could, however, also be true—i.e., a country's population demographics could influence the financial markets. In this article, we model the potential impact of aggregate retirement patterns on macroeconomic variables with the goal of further understanding the implications of a traditional DC pension becoming the predominant source of retirement income for an entire society. We find that the economic-system feedback dampens fluctuations in the size of the working population.     

Impact of Replacing a Defined Benefit Pension with a Defined Contribution Plan or a Cash Balance Plan

Abstract

Four pension plan conversions are examined to determine the impact on retirement benefits of workers. The study was based on interviews with top management, employee surveys, and actuarial analysis of retirement benefits under the old and new pension plans. In general, workers who leave the firm prior to the age of early retirement can expect increased benefits under the new defined contribution and cash balance plans, whereas older, more senior workers can expect to accrue smaller benefits after the plan conversions. Recognizing these potential adverse effects, the employers in our studies provided various types of transition benefits to existing workers or gave employees the choice of remaining in the old defined benefit plan. Employee surveys reveal that younger workers are more supportive of the new pension plans than are older workers. These case studies also indicate that communication by managements with their employees is very important to the successful implementation of plan conversions.     

Risk Allocation in Retirement Plans: A Better Solution

The corporate world is reconsidering the cost‐effectiveness of defined benefit pension plans while contemplating a change to defined contribution plans. This article begins by examining the three primary risks faced by sponsors of most DB pension plans—investment risk, interest rate risk, and longevity risk—and shows how shifting these risks to employees through a DC plan would affect both the corporation and the individual. Although DC plans clearly help companies manage risks, they provide at best an incomplete solution for individual participants. This article describes an innovation in pension design—the Retirement Shares Plan (RSP)—that combines many of the best features of DB and DC plans. An RSP provides:

• ? predictable and stable cost to the plan sponsor, with little chance of unfunded liabilities;
• ? lifetime income, guaranteeing that retirees will never outlive their benefits;
• ? a benefit accrual pattern comparable to that of traditional pension plans that preserves value for older, long‐service employees; and
• ? potential inflation protection for retirees.

The RSP accomplishes this by allocating risk to sponsors and individuals differently than either a traditional DB plan or a DC plan. Unlike most DB plans, the RSP shifts investment and interest rate risks from plan sponsors to participants. Unlike DC plans, the RSP keeps longevity risk with the sponsor.     

Gradual Retirement: An Additional Option in Work and Retirement

Abstract

Aging of the population raises many questions and issues for individuals, families, and society: economic, political, social, psychological, medical, ethical, moral, religious, and legal, all of which bear on the quality of life in its many dimensions. Economic security in old age is one rubric under which many of the problems and their possible solutions may be discussed. How a society arranges for its members to work and retire is an important facet in the provision for old-age economic security.

This article is concerned with the implications of demographic and labor force changes for work and retirement. It discusses the role of gradual (or phased) retirement in introducing flexibility into the range of choices between work and retirement.

Section 1 explains the rationale for gradual retirement. Section 2 spells out the barriers to implementing gradual retirement programs, including legal barriers and barriers relating to pension plan objectives. Section 3 discusses some possible solutions for implementing gradual retirement programs. Section 4 describes some selected examples of gradual retirement programs, and Section 5 contains concluding remarks.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

The Shift to Defined Contribution Pension Plans

Abstract

There has been a strong shift away from defined benefit (DB) pension plans toward defined contribution (DC) pension plans in the United States over the last 20 years. A variety of reasons for this shift have been proposed. In another paper in this issue, Krzysztof Ostaszewski presents a new hypothesis to explain the shift to DC plans in the United States. He argues that the decline in importance of DB plans is due to a shift in the way relative returns to macroeconomic factors of production, that is, capital and labor, are being rewarded in the national economy.

This paper attempts to test the Ostaszewski hypothesis using Canadian data. In Canada there has been only a slight decrease in DB plan coverage. It is shown that the Ostaszewski theory does not fit the Canadian experience well. Instead, it is argued that pension regulation and tax legislation play a crucial role in pension design and reform. It is also argued that the difference in pension regulation and taxation in Canada versus the United States has directly influenced plan sponsors in considering their pension objectives, costs, and risks. Differences in the proportion of the workforce that is unionized may also be important. The paper concludes that pension regulation and taxation are more important variables than are macroeconomic reward systems in the use of DB versus DC pension plans.     

Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement: novel causal evidence

ABSTRACT

We utilise recent Household Finance and Consumption Survey microdata to report first causal effects of financial literacy on voluntary private pension schemes participation for a Central and Eastern European (CEE) country, namely Slovakia. Savings for retirement in the supplementary pension schemes are positively associated with financial literacy after controlling for a set of relevant socio-economic variables. One additional correctly answered financial literacy question leads to a 5.6 percentage points increase in the probability of having a voluntary pension savings plan in our ordinary least squares estimates. The causal impact of financial literacy increases to 19.5 percentage points when we address potential endogeneity problems by novel to the literature instrumental variables.     

Allocating Shareholder Capital to Pension Plans

This article discusses the corporate challenge of providing retirement income to employees while limiting the costs and risks of pension plans to the companies themselves by addressing five main questions:

• ? What are the major issues and challenges surrounding pensions? Although the pension shortfalls have been the focus of attention, the author argues that the more serious concern is the risk stemming from the mismatch between pension assets and pension liabilities— that is, the funding of debt‐like liabilities with equity‐heavy asset portfolios.
• ? To what extent do the equity market and equity prices reflect the shortfall in value and the mismatch in risk? While the author describes some evidence of the market's ability to capture pension risk, analysts' P/E multiples and management's assessments of cost of capital may still be distorted by failure to take full account of the risks associated with pension assets.
• ? How should management analyze and formulate strategic solutions? Without offering specific solutions, the author presents a framework for analyzing the problem from a strategic perspective that can be used in formulating a company's pension policy. In particular, the article recommends that companies take an integrated perspective that views pension assets and liabilities as parts of the corporate balance sheet, and the pension asset allocation decision as a critical aspect of a corporate‐wide enterprise risk management program.
• ? If a company chooses to make a major change in its pension policy, such as a partial or complete immunization accomplished by substituting bonds for stocks, how would you communicate the new policy to the rating agencies and investors?
• ? What are the major issues to be thinking about when contemplating a change from a DB plan to a defined contribution, or DC, plan? The author argues that DC plans without some corporate oversight or responsibility for results are not a long‐term solution.

     

Impacts on Economic Security Programs of Rapidly Shifting Demographics

Abstract

This paper analyzes in some detail potential impacts on economic security programs—government, employer, and individual—that the aging of the baby boom generation may create. It begins by defining what is meant by “population aging” and concludes that fertility shifts are more important than improving life expectancy. It also argues that calling the baby boom the “postwar baby boom” is inaccurate and will lead to missed targets for product development and marketing. Finally, this section of the paper notes that the most rapidly growing segment of the population will be the oldest old—those age 85 and over, who will also put the greatest stress on the provision of health care and retirement income security.

The paper then looks at other demographic shifts of importance, in particular female labor force participation rates. The impact of shifting demographics is reviewed for each sponsor of economic security programs: the government (health care and social security); the employer (pension plans and group benefits); and the individual. Points of concern and offsetting opportunities for the insurance industry are noted. Finally, the paper looks at whether we will be able to “afford” the sudden retirement of the baby boom. The conclusion is that this will be affordable if we can convince a portion of the labor force to stay active longer, and if we have healthy productivity growth rates. The problems of an aging population can all be viewed as opportunities for those who have the map.     

Pension Wealth Uncertainty

Using a representative sample of Italian investors, we measure the uncertainty of social security benefits by eliciting for each individual the subjective distribution of the replacement rate as a summary indicator of pension uncertainty. We find that pension uncertainty varies across individuals in a way that is consistent with what one would expect a priori, given different information sets and pension schemes. In particular, individuals who are a long way from retirement, and thus face more career uncertainty, report more subjective pension uncertainty. Since expectations reveal information about people's understanding of pension reforms, our findings suggest that they should also be an important determinant of how people respond to reforms.     

Real Longevity Insurance with a Deductible: Introduction to Advanced-Life Delayed Annuities (ALDA)

Abstract

This paper explores the financial properties of a concept product called an advanced-life delayed annuity (ALDA). The ALDA is a variant of a pure deferred annuity contract that is acquired by installments, adjusted for consumer price inflation, and pays off toward the end of the human life cycle. The ALDA concept is aimed at the growing population of North Americans without access to a traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan and the implicit longevity insurance that a DB plan contains. I show that under quite reasonable pricing assumptions, a consumer can invest or allocate $1 per month, while saving for retirement, and receive between $20 and $40 per month in benefits, assuming the deductible in this insurance policy is set high enough. The ALDA concept might go a long way in mitigating the psychological barrier to voluntary lump-sum annuitization.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

The Public Responsibility of Actuaries in American Pensions

Abstract

This article traces the history of the public responsibility of actuaries concerning American pension plans. It includes both defined-benefit and defined-contribution plans for employees of both private and public employers. It does not include Social Security. Actuaries have provided innovative approaches to plan design, funding, funding instruments, accounting, and legal and regulatory requirements. Actuaries have made substantial contributions that have enabled pension plans, together with Social Security, to provide economic security for millions of workers and their dependents when employment ends. However, many Americans still lack assurance of a retirement income that is initially adequate, continues for life, and keeps pace with inflation. Thus, challenges will continue to face pension actuaries in the years ahead.     

Factors Affecting Retirement Mortality

Abstract

As many countries consider mandatory individual retirement accounts as their answer to a secure social security system, the question arises as to whether all workers can get true “market value” annuities when they retire. It is clear today that private-sector life annuities are priced assuming that the applicant is healthy—very healthy. Very little underwriting or risk classification now exists in the individual annuity marketplace. However, if a large percentage of the population were looking to annuitize their social security accounts upon retirement, there would be strong pressure for more risk classes in the annuity-pricing structure.

Even without the advent of individual accounts for social security, the authors of this paper feel there may be real market opportunities for more risk classification in the individual annuity market and the offering of “impaired life annuities.” Given that this pressure does or might soon exist, this paper reviews 45 recent research papers that look at factors that affect mortality after retirement. In particular, factors that seem to be important in predicting retirement mortality include age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income, occupation, marital status, religion, health behaviors, smoking, alcohol, and obesity. for each factor, this paper gives highlights relative to the named factor of the impact expected from that variable as described in the 45 reviewed research papers.

The authors believe there is a wealth of information contained in the summaries that follow, and it is our sincere hope that this paper will cause an increased interest in a more broadly based risk classification structure for individual annuities.

Summaries of the 45 papers can be found at www.soa.org/sections/farm/farm.html.     

The new retirement reality: calculating the true cost of retirement income adequacy

Recognizing that 401(k) plans are emerging as many employees' sole source of employer-sponsored retirement income, plan sponsors are increasingly adding paternalistic plan features to increase the amount--and effectiveness--of dollars invested in 401(k) accounts. The authors describe the results of a study they prepared for Hewitt Associates that assesses retirement income adequacy for individuals represented in a plan participant database of 1.8 million individuals. The study includes analysis of retirement income adequacy for the aggregate population as well as the results for different subgroups, reflecting factors such as whether individuals actively contribute; the impact of different levels of retiree medical coverage; and the presence of a defined benefit pension. Finally, the authors discuss how plan sponsors can bolster the adequacy of retirement income from 401(k) plans, depending on employer objectives.     

“Understanding Relationships Using Copulas,” Edward Frees and Emiliano Valdez,January 1998

Abstract

The problem of how to fund a defined-benefit pension plan is detached from the problem of how the cost of such a plan should be recognized. An approach to funding based on the projection of aggregate cash flows and the explicit modeling of new entrants is presented. It is shown that commonly used funding methods can be derived from the cash-flow approach. A generalized funding method for a plan subject to a stationary distribution of new entrants is derived. It is concluded that plan actuaries might need to modify existing funding methods to incorporate useful information about the expected number and distribution of future entrants.     

The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model

Abstract

Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. Recent work on the latter has focused on modeling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modeling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. This methodology has become widely used, and various extensions and modifications have been proposed to obtain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of mortality rates. In order to improve the measurement of uncertainty in survival probability estimates, in particular for older ages, the paper proposes an extension based on simulation procedures and on the bootstrap methodology. It aims to obtain more reliable and accurate mortality projections, based on the idea of obtaining an acceptable accuracy of the estimate by means of variance reducing techniques. In this way the forecasting procedure becomes more efficient. The longevity question constitutes a critical element in the solvency appraisal of pension annuities. The demographic models used for the cash flow distributions in a portfolio impact on the mathematical reserve and surplus calculations and affect the risk management choices for a pension plan. The paper extends the investigation of the impact of survival uncertainty for life annuity portfolios and for a guaranteed annuity option in the case where interest rates are stochastic. In a framework in which insurance companies need to use internal models for risk management purposes and for determining their solvency capital requirement, the authors consider the surplus value, calculated as the ratio between the market value of the projected assets to that of the liabilities, as a meaningful measure of the company’s financial position, expressing the degree to which the liabilities are covered by the assets.