论环境税收边境调整与WTO规则之间的关系

环境税收边境调整是征收环境税的国家针对进出口产品采取的一种单边措施,其目的是为了扭转一国产品在国际竞争中的价格劣势。但是,这一措施可能会与GATT最惠国待遇原则、国民待遇原则以及反补贴规则产生冲突。虽然WTO成员方可以援引GATT第二十条例外条款,而是否能获得wT0专家小组或上诉机构的认同还是个未知数。对此,各国应同时从国际和国内两个层面寻找出路。     

Trade Liberalization and National Food Security: Rice Trade between Bangladesh and India

Following a poor harvest in late 1997 and a massive flood in 1998, private sector traders in Bangladesh imported several million metric tons of rice from India. This paper presents evidence that this trade, made possible by separate trade liberalizations in India and Bangladesh in the early 1990s, augmented domestic supplies and stabilized prices in Bangladesh at import parity levels. Letters of credit data indicating the participation of hundreds of importers, and a close correlation of price movements across the two countries suggest that the trade was competitive. A risk of co-incident crop shortfalls in the two countries remains, though these have occurred rarely in the past two decades. Bangladesh imports from alternative sources would also enhance food availability if another production shortfall occurs, but these imports face higher transport costs and would involve far fewer importing firms given the economies of scale of shipments by sea.The positive contribution of trade liberalization to short-run food security in Bangladesh in recent years does not minimize the importance of increased agricultural productivity and rural economic growth to provide rural poor households with sufficient incomes to acquire food. Nonetheless, the Bangladesh experience shows that trade liberalization offers potential benefits for national food security by enabling a rapid increase of food supplies following domestic production shortfalls.     

Environmental Taxation in Open Economies: Unilateralism or Partial Harmonization

There are two reasons why countries might set weak environmental policies: transboundary pollution and concerns for competitiveness. This article explores the full interactions between these two features within a unified general equilibrium framework. First, we show that competitive concerns change the structure of output taxes but not that of emission taxes. They lead to a lowering of output taxes, lower polluting good prices, an increase in emission taxes, adoption of less (or same) polluting technologies, increased aggregate emissions, and lower overall welfare levels. Second, we show that partially harmonizing commodity taxes, above their unrestricted Nash equilibrium value, can potentially hurt as well as improve the pollution technology, overall quality of the environment and welfare. The three attributes move positively together. On the other hand, harmonizing of emission taxes above their Nash equilibrium values appear to always lead to improvements in the environment and welfare via adoption of cleaner technologies.     

Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa: Past Performance and the Way Forward

Abstract: Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra‐ and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad‐based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.     

East Asian Export Competitiveness: New Measures and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates the remarkable competitiveness of East Asian countries in world export markets for manufactures and develops some policy implications, both for developed and other developing economies. Using constant market share analysis, applied to data for exports from three East Asian countries–Korea, China and Indonesia–to markets in the industrially advanced economies (IAEs), it shows that East Asian countries have increased their share, not merely in IAE imports, but in total IAE market sales at the expense of exporters from other countries and of domestic IAE producers.     

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations： Effects and China＇s Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

Carbon emissions,trade liberalization,and the Japan–ASEAN interaction: A group-wise examination

As in any modern economy, trade is central to the progress of the economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) region, but environmental degradation occurs with globalization. Using panel data from the period 1970–2006, this study examines the interaction between trade and the environment in terms of carbon emissions for the group of ASEAN countries. The results demonstrate that CO₂ emissions display an inverted-S shape in the region. In general, exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) are main contributors to carbon emissions in the developed, developing and late-developing ASEAN countries. The study found no evidence for the Foreign Direct Investment’s (FDI) deteriorating impact on environmental quality. Moreover, Japan’s imports from the region do not cause pollution while China’s imports stimulate the pollution per capita.     

Wage structure effects of international trade in a small open economy: the case of Belgium

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on wage dispersion in a small open economy, Belgium. It is one of the few to: (i) use detailed, matched employer-employee data to compute industry wage premia and disaggregated industry-level panel data to examine the impact of changes in international trade on changes in wage differentials, (ii) simultaneously analyse both imports and exports, and (iii) examine the impact of imports according to the country of origin. Looking at the export side, we find (on the basis of the system generalized method of moments estimator) a positive effect of exports on industry wage premia. The results also show that import penetration has a significant and negative impact on industry wage differentials. However, the detrimental effect of imports on wages is found to be significantly greater when imports originate from low- and middle-income countries than from high-income countries.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

THE COMPETITIVENESS OF UK MANUFACTURING: EVIDENCE FROM IMPORTS

The paper presents an empirical analysis of the behaviour ofUK imports of manufactures, intended to develop understandingof non-price competitiveness by evaluating the impact of capacityconstraints, international specialisation, and industrial standards.Two data sets are employed: aggregate data for the period 1970–93,and a panel of 81 industries for 1985–90. Structural stabilityin a model of the former suggests that no competitiveness improvementhas occurred in domestic UK manufacturing which matches thatfound elsewhere for exports The panel model shows the importantimpact of standards on imports, while confirming that skilledlabour shortages are a key source of volatility.     

Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for three country groups (industrial, developing and emerging markets) on annual data for 87 countries from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar degree, in the long run for all countries, but the adjustment is significantly slower for industrial countries. Emerging markets and developing countries display relatively fast adjustment. Disaggregation into exports and imports shows that the delayed adjustment in industrial countries is almost entirely on the export side. The rate of adjustment in emerging markets is slowing over time, consistent with their eventual graduation to high-income status. The ratio of trade to GDP is also highly sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, with a real depreciation of 10 % raising the trade/GDP ratio across the sample by approximately 4 %. This result, which presumably reflects movements in the prices of tradables relative to non-tradables, raises questions about the widespread use of the trade/GDP ratio as a trade policy indicator, without adjustment for real exchange rate effects.     

国际竞争力就等于出口竞争力吗?——基于中国制造业的对比实证分析

和产业国际竞争力评价体系的多层次性不同,产业出口竞争力的评价相对单纯,因此用出口竞争力来指代国际竞争力会出现偏误,例如内需大国的国际竞争力被低估,加工贸易的国际竞争力被高估等。因此应同等重视中国制造的内需和外需市场,因为大国国内市场占有率的提高同样显示了产业国际竞争力的提升,它和国际市场份额提高一样,都是产业国际竞争力提升的重要途径。     

Extent and evaluation of protection in developing countries

Tariff protection and nontariff barriers are higher in developing countries than in industrial nations. The tendency of protection to decline with a higher level of development can be explained by the role of import taxes in government revenue, by export pessimism, and by differential treatment of developing countries under GATT.Protection against imports is a burden on the export sector. Trade liberalization has important effects on economic growth and factor productivity. Recent programs of trade liberalization are implemented together with complementary macroeconomic policies to enhance the possibility of sustaining trade policy reforms to be sustained.     

Adjusting to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of Firms in the South African Textile Sector

This paper examines the responses of firms in the textile industryof South Africa to that country's rapid liberalisation of tradesince the early 1990s. The data reveal that there have beenincreased exports accompanied by reductions in employment andcontraction of production of yarns and fabrics. Drawing on asurvey of companies, followed by interviews, it documents howcompetitive pressures from imports have led firms to increasetheir exports. Exporting is not, however, directly associatedwith better performance. This is due to its being a responseby many firms to weak domestic demand and the need to maintainproduction capacity. But, liberalisation has also been accompaniedby much upgrading of equipment and by increased specialisationand vertical disintegration in order to develop competitiveniches despite South Africa's manufacturing wage levels beinghigher than those of many of its international competitors.Firms focusing on non-price factors of export competitivenesshave been better performing. Firms have also been most successfulwhere technological capabilities based on the domestic marketprovided a foundation for export competitiveness. There areindications that with the restructuring induced by liberalisationthe sector is in a position more effectively to exploit itscompetitive strengths in international markets. In addition,the United States' African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)offers some stimulus for the textile industry to supply fabricsto firms in the export garment sector which previously importedthem.     

Who will Meet China’s Import Demand for Forest Products?

Via computable general equilibrium modeling we find that as a result of economic growth, Yuan appreciation, and logging restrictions in China, China’s imports and exports of forest products would dramatically increase, and China’s imports would have displacement effects as timber-exporting countries would increase their exports to China while reducing their shipments to other countries. Such displacement effects would make pressure on forests in supplying countries less than they otherwise might be. Global economic growth is a dominant driving force for China’s imports. Russia, Southeast Asia, and Africa would remain major foreign suppliers of logs to China, while supply sources for Chinese imported lumber and paper products would be relatively diverse.     

The U.S. proposed carbon tariffs, WTO scrutiny and China’s responses

With governments from around the world trying to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40–45% over the same period. This dilemma is partly attributed to flaws in current international climate negotiations, which have been focused on commitments on the two targeted dates of 2020 and 2050. However, if the international climate change negotiations continue on their current course without extending the commitment period to 2030, which would really open the possibility for the U.S. and China to make the commitments that each wants from the other, the inclusion of border carbon adjustment measures seems essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its own greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the joint WTO-UNEP report indicates that border carbon adjustment measures might be allowed under the existing WTO rules, depending on their specific design features and the specific conditions for implementing them. Against this background, this paper argues that, on the U.S. side, there is a need to minimize the potential conflicts with WTO provisions in designing such border carbon adjustment measures. The U.S. also needs to explore, with its trading partners, ccooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at the international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could reasonably be expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. Meanwhile, being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures, China needs to, at the right time, indicate a serious commitment to address climate change issues to challenge the legitimacy of the U.S. imposing carbon tariffs by signaling well ahead that it will take on binding absolute emission caps around the year 2030, and needs the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps. This paper argues that there is a clear need within a climate regime to define comparable efforts towards climate mitigation and adaptation to discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level. As exemplified by export tariffs that China applied on its own during 2006–08, the paper shows that defining the comparability of climate efforts can be to China’s advantage. Furthermore, given the fact that, in volume terms, energy-intensive manufacturing in China values 7 to 8 times that of India, and thus carbon tariffs have a greater impact on China than on India, the paper questions whether China should hold the same stance on this issue as India as it does now, although the two largest developing countries should continue to take a common position on other key issues in international climate change negotiations.     

The Danish agricultural revolution in an energy perspective: a case of development with few domestic energy sources

This article examines the case of Denmark—a country which historically had next to no domestic energy resources—for which new historical energy accounts are presented for the years 1800–1913. It demonstrates that Denmark's take‐off at the end of the nineteenth century was relatively energy dependent. This is related to Denmark's well‐known agricultural transformation and development through the dairy industry, and thus the article complements the literature which argues that expensive energy hindered industrialization, by arguing that similar obstacles would have precluded other countries from a more agriculture‐based growth. The Danish cooperative creameries, which spread throughout the country over the last two decades of the nineteenth century, were dependent on coal. Although Denmark had next to no domestic coal deposits, this article demonstrates that Danish geography allowed cheap availability throughout the country through imports. On top of this it emphasizes that another important source of energy was imported feed for cows.     

Chinese imports and income inequality: evidence from six East Asian economies

The study adopts a mixed‐methods design with quantitative and narrative accounts of inequality formation in Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Imports from China, but not elsewhere, have a strong positive impact on domestic income inequality. With growing volume of cheaper imports, local industries lose competitiveness or even relocate to China in some cases. This paper suggests manufacturing employment as one of the causal pathways from Chinese imports to rising income inequality, as the wage gap between the top and bottom widened following the loss of middle‐wage manufacturing jobs.     

Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries: Implications for employment and wages at U.S. domestic manufacturers

Using confidential linked firm-level trade transactions and census data between 1997 and 2012, we provide new evidence on how American firms without foreign affiliates adjust employment and wages as they adapt to import competition from low-income countries. We provide stylized facts on the input sourcing strategies of these domestic firms, contrasting them with multinationals operating in the same industry. We then investigate how changes in firm input purchases from low-income countries as well as domestic market import penetration from these sources are correlated with changes in employment and wages at surviving domestic firms. Greater offshoring by domestic firms from low-income countries correlates with larger declines in manufacturing employment and in the average production workers’ wage. Given the negative association, however, the estimated magnitudes are small, even for a narrow measure of offshoring that includes only intermediate goods. Import penetration of U.S. markets from these sources is associated with relatively larger changes in employment for arm’s length importing firms, but has no significant correlation with employment changes at firms that do not trade. Given differences in the degree of both offshoring and import penetration, we find substantial variation across industries in the magnitude of changes associated with low-income country imports.