Managing wetlands: an ecological economic analysis of the Hong Kong Wetland Park

This paper addresses the question of whether the Hang Kong government made a rational economic decision when it decided to set aside land to develop a Wetland Park, or whether it should have used the land for alternative commercial developments. Different analytical methods are used to estimate the economic value of the environmental benefits of the Wetland Park： the Value Transfer Method is used to estimate the economic value oJ the ecological services provided by the Park. the Direct Market Price analysis for the economic value of the goods purchased in the Wetland Park, the Hedonic Housing Price Analysis for the value of the Park to those residing in its proximity, the Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Method for the value of the Park to the visitors, and the Contingent Valuation for the Passive （Nonuse） Values of the Park. These benefits are compared to the opportunity cost of the land and the cost of running the Wetland Park. The article concludes that if a rate of 5% or less is used to discount fiture costs and benefits, we would find that the government＇s decision to set aside land for a Wetland Park was economically sound while using a discount rate of 6% or more shows that it was not.     

SUBSIDY TO NUCLEAR POWER THROUGH PRICE-ANDERSON LIABILITY LIMIT

Between 1959 and 1982, the Price-Anderson Act placed a limit of $560 million on the liability of nuclear power plant operators for accidental damages. This limit grew to $7 billion due to the 1988 amendments to the act. This paper using insurance premiums charged for the first $160 million of coverage and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's estimate of the probability of a worst-case loss, models the distribution of damages with a log-logistic density function. The study finds that the value of the Price-Anderson subsidy was $60 million per reactor year before 1982 but then dropped to $22 million per reactor year following the 1988 amendments.     

Combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management: A choice experiment application

Increasing pressure to diversify development of national parks emphasizes the need for new and relevant information for park management decisions. In this paper, we use choice experiment to value different tradeoffs that evolved in park development scenarios. Specifically, we examine which kind of development profiles are worth considering and which paths not to follow. We focus on biodiversity and recreational services provided by Oulanka National Park in Finland, which represents a popular recreation site attracting a large number of visitors. The increase of biodiversity was the most highly valued feature by the respondent national park visitors. Thus, our results show that the protection of biodiversity and recreational and tourism use of national parks can cause conflicting welfare effects if managed in inappropriate ways. Increasing the number of visitors, expanding present resting places, constructing new resting places and an intense increase in information boards, especially if combined with shrinking biodiversity, are welfare reducing managerial actions in national parks.     

The social value of carbon sequestered in Great Britain's woodlands

The economic value of carbon storage associated with British woodland is calculated. Models were developed to estimate C flux associated with live trees, forest floor litter, soils, wood products, harvest, fossil fuel used in manufacturing and C displacement from biofuels and products for representative British plantation species: Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and beech (Fagus sylvatica). Map databases of publicly and privately owned woodlands were compiled for Great Britain. Carbon flux was determined for individual woodland sites, and monetised using candidate parameters for the social discount rate (1, 3, 3.5 or 5%) and social value of carbon (US$109.5, $1, $10 or $17.10/t). A conventional discount function was applied. Final results are expressed as Net Present Values, for the base year 2001, with discounting commencing in 2002. The minimum suggested NPV (discount rate = 3% and social value of carbon = $1) of GB woodlands already existing in 2001 is $82 million, with a further $72 million that might be added by future afforestation. These figures rise dramatically if a discount rate of 1% and social value of sequestered carbon = $109.5/t are assumed. The calculated total value of C stored in British woodland depends significantly on parameter assumptions, especially about appropriate discount rate and social value of sequestered carbon.     

A Latent Class Nested Logit Model for Rank-Ordered Data with Application to Cork Oak Reforestation

We analyze stated ranking data collected from recreational visitors to the Alcornocales Natural Park (ANP) in Spain. The ANP is a large protected area which comprises mainly cork oak woodlands. The visitors ranked cork oak reforestation programs delivering different sets of environmental (reforestation technique, biodiversity, forest surface) and social (jobs and recreation sites created) outcomes. We specify a novel latent class nested logit model for rank-ordered data to estimate the distribution of willingness-to-pay for each outcome. Our modeling approach jointly exploits recent advances in discrete choice methods. The results suggest that prioritizing biodiversity would increase certainty over public support for a reforestation program. In addition, a substantial fraction of the visitor population are willing to pay more for the social outcomes than the environmental outcomes, whereas the existing reforestation subsidies are often justified by the environmental outcomes alone.     

Estimating the benefits of low flow alleviation in rivers: the case of the Ticino River

In Switzerland 60% of electricity is produced by hydropower plants. The construction and operation of these plants determine some negative environmental externalities, such as diminishing groundwater levels and spring flows, and a reduction in river flow, which can severely curtail recreational and fishing activities. This study concentrates on an ex-ante appraisal of the monetary benefits resulting from an enhancement of river flow for recreational fishing purposes. A comparison of estimates of these benefits to the corresponding costs, in terms of loss of electricity production, incurred by hydropower plants to alleviate low flows may be useful for policy makers. For this analysis, as suggested by Layman et al. (Land Economics 72, pp. 113-128, 1996), the Travel Cost Method (TCM) is extended to estimate the economic value of recreational fishing in the Ticino River (the most important river of the Canton Ticino) under existing and hypothetical river flow conditions. Anglers were asked to state how the number of trips they took to the Ticino River would change if an increase in the river flow was imposed on the hydropower plants. The empirical results show that an enhancement of river flow increases the annual consumer surplus for a typical angler by approximately 440 SFr.     

Non-market Value of Winter Outdoor Recreation in the Swiss Alps: The Case of Val Bedretto

A longstanding interest from environmental economists on winter outdoor recreation has overlooked activities practiced outside the boundaries of winter resorts—e.g. ski mountaineering. This paper implements the Travel Cost Method to estimate consumer surplus per season derived from ski mountaineering and snowshoeing in Val Bedretto—a valley located in the Swiss Alps. In addition, the Contingent Behavior Method is used to estimate the changes in welfare associated with the construction of an alpine center that would provide services aiming to reduce the risk of injury and death associated with winter outdoor recreation. The data is analyzed by means of latent class panel on-site count models. The latent class approach allows us to identify subpopulations that benefit from the alpine center. The results show that 33% of visitors would experience an increase in their consumer surplus per season equivalent to €31 per visitor.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR DESERT PROTECTION

This paper uses a referendum-style survey approach known as dichotomous-choice contingent valuation to estimate the benefits of restricting the uses of 6.9 million acres of desert land. Statistical techniques estimate the value to California residents of creating three new national parks and 76 new wilderness areas in the high and low deserts of eastern California. The total amount that California residents would be willing to pay to enact desert protection legislation ranges from $177 million to $448 million per year. This estimate hinges on the assumptions that (i) the residents who did not complete and return the survey questionnaire ("nonrespondents") would receive no benefits from desert protection and (ii) the estimate of willingness to pay for the "respondents" is unbiased.     

海岸带地区环境资源经济价值的评估方法及实证分析

以大连市金石滩国家海洋公园为例,利用条件价值法,通过建立双边界二分式Logit模型,分别计算了居民和游客对改善和保护海岸带三种最重要环境资源(海水、沙滩、生物种群)的平均意愿支付,进而评估了金石滩国家海洋公园海岸带游憩资源的经济价值。结果显示:金石滩国家海洋公园的海水、沙滩和生物种群的经济价值分别为4.30亿元、3.92亿元和3.57亿元。最后指出:将这些信息纳入海岸带地区的综合管理成本效益分析,对于实现海岸带资源的可持续发展有重要意义。     

Testing whether waterfowl hunting benefits increase with greater water deliveries to wetlands

The change in waterfowl hunting benefits due to an increase in water deliveries to the levels required for biologically optimal wildlife refuge management at California's San Joaquin Valley National Wildlife Refuges are estimated with the Travel Cost Method, using both ordinary least squares and Poisson count data estimators. To test whether these increases were statistically significant, the Krinsky and Robb technique was used to find confidence intervals around the consumer surplus point estimates. The increases in consumer surplus were found to be statistically significant in 5 of the 6 refuges based on OLS regression estimates and in all 6 refuges using Poisson count data regression estimates. In addition, a comparison of the marginal value of an acre-foot of water in consumptive recreational use versus agriculture use is made, with the finding that the marginal value of water in waterfowl hunting was greater than the marginal value of water in agriculture for one of the six refuges.     

The budget impact of using enteric-coated aspirin 325 mg + immediate-release omeprazole 40 mg to prevent recurrent cardiovascular events

Objective: Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid; ASA) is commonly used for secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events, but may be associated with gastrointestinal (GI) adverse events, which can reduce adherence. Use of ASA co-therapy with proton pump inhibitors in patients at risk may be suboptimal. PA32540 (Yosprala?) is a coordinated-delivery tablet combining EC-ASA 325?mg and immediate-release omeprazole 40?mg. The objective of this flexible budget impact model was to project the financial consequences of introducing PA32540 325?mg/40?mg to prevent recurrent CV events, while reducing ASA-associated GI events in US adults.

Methods: A Markov Model was employed to estimate health state transitions associated with ASA 75–325?mg, ASA 75–325?mg?+?generic delayed-release omeprazole 40?mg, PA32540, or clopidogrel 75?mg to prevent recurrent CV events. Health states included ulcers, GI bleeding, CV events, and death. Model inputs included demographics, treatment dosages, treatment costs, adverse GI and CV events, and premature death. Data from peer-reviewed literature and censuses enabled appropriate allocation of CV and GI disease prevalence and mortality. The PA32540 non-adherence rate was conservatively set at 20%. PA32540 market share was set to 50%.

Results: The model projected annual savings of $81.0 million to $190.9 million within 1–5 years after PA32540 introduction to the plan, which included 134,558 members at risk for recurrent CV events. These values translate into savings of $602 (year 5) to $1,419 (year 1) per patient per year, and $81 (year 5) to $191 (year 1) per member per year. These values were robust to variations in parameters under a deterministic sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion: PA32540 use to prevent recurrent CV events was associated with cost reductions in each year examined with the model. From a health plan perspective, PA32540 is likely to have a net overall effect, resulting in significant cost savings.     

Cost benefit analysis of conservation efforts to preserve an endangered species: The Griffon Vulture (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gyps fulvus</Emphasis>) in Israel

The major goal of this study was to determine whether protective measures in the case of the Eurasian Griffon Vulture are in accordance with public priorities. To this end we used the Travel Cost (TCM) and Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM) to estimate its value. We also determined the break even point in the allocation of funds targeted to protection at the regional level and performed a cost-benefit analysis of conservation efforts on a national level in Israel. The value of the marginal vulture was found to be approximately 34,000 NIS at Gamla and 316,000 NIS at Hai-Bar Nature Reserves. The economic efficiency of feeding stations was examined from two aspects: At the regional level, the break-even point for a feeding station to be efficient was 0.24 and 2.20 vultures per year for the Hai-Bar and Gamla NRs respectively. At the national level, in most cases, the national project to save vultures, ‘Porsim Kanaf’ (‘Porsim Kanaf’ is the national birds of prey conservation project in Israel) passes a Cost-Benefit test based on the valuation results.     

WAREHOUSES,TRUCKS, AND PM2.5: HUMAN HEALTH AND LOGISTICS INDUSTRY GROWTH IN THE EASTERN INLAND EMPIRE

The eastern Inland Empire of Southern California has experienced dramatic growth of the logistics industry since 2000. This paper analyzes the air pollution implications of that expansion. It is found that truck traffic will generate significant air pollution, especially PM_2.5. The estimated excess mortality associated is 32–64 cases per year, with a combined excess mortality and morbidity value of $247–$455 million per year. This represents 44%–81% of the estimated wages generated by industry growth and $5 million–$9 million per distribution facility. These estimates suggest that policies should be developed to internalize those costs.     

Estimating the market value of collegiate football players from professional factor shares

Although the level and growth of revenue in college football has drawn increasing public attention, reliable estimates of the value of college and associated rents remain elusive. Many players do not have easily observable performance statistics and there are significant complementarities. Using a simple estimation strategy based on professional factor shares and rooted in economic theory, we generate estimates of market value for college players across seven National Collegiate Athletic Association conferences using professional football and basketball salaries from 2011 to 2013 as shadow prices. With this method, market value of an average starting football player in a Bowl Championship Series (BCS) conference ranges from $120,000 to $1.7 million per year. The value of superstar players may exceed $4 million per year. We find that rents can flow from the institutions to players in some cases at relatively low-revenue institutions outside the BCS.     

Estimated annual and lifetime labor productivity in the United States, 2016: implications for economic evaluations

Abstract

Background: Human-capital based lifetime productivity estimates are frequently used in cost-of-illness (COI) analyses and, less commonly, in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Previous US estimates assumed that labor productivity and real earnings both grow by 1% per year.

Objectives: This study presents estimates of annual and lifetime productivity for 2016 using data from the American Community Survey, the American Time Use Survey, and the Current Population Survey, and with varying assumptions about real earnings growth.

Methods: The sum of market productivity (gross annual personal labor earnings adjusted for employer-paid benefits) and the imputed value of non-market time spent in household, caring, and volunteer services was estimated. The present value of lifetime productivity at various ages was calculated for synthetic cohorts using annual productivity estimates, life tables, discount rates, and assumptions about future earnings growth rates.

Results: Mean annual productivity was $57,324 for US adults in 2016, including $36,935 in market and $20,389 in non-market productivity. Lifetime productivity at birth, using a 3% discount rate, is roughly $1.5 million if earnings grow by 1% per year and $1.2 million if future earnings growth averages 0.5% per year.

Conclusions: Inclusion of avoidable productivity losses in societal-perspective CEAs of health interventions is recommended in new US cost-effectiveness guidelines. However, estimates vary depending on whether analysts choose to estimate total productivity or just market productivity, and on assumptions made about growth in future productivity and earnings.     

Pricing Lives: International Guideposts for Safety

Government agencies throughout the world use the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetise the mortality risk reduction benefits of government policies. The most reliable empirical estimates of the VSL using US labour market data are about US$10 million (year 2015 US dollars). Based on international estimates of the income elasticity of the VSL, one can transfer these values to other countries, leading to my VSL estimate for Australia of US$7.9 million, or A$10.0 million, which is over double the current Australia best‐practices value. Transferring US VSL estimates to other nations after accounting for income differences will boost global VSL estimates. Potential refinements of the VSL based on age and income are also feasible. The VSL could serve a pivotal role in promoting safety by valuing lives in litigation contexts, regulatory sanctions, and corporate risk analyses.     

VALUING HEALTH EFFECTS: THE CASE OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICLES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

This study presents a conservative estimate of the health benefits that would result from attainment of the federal ozone and fine particle (PM_2.5) standards in the South Coast Air Basin of southern California. A three‐stage approach is used that links pollution exposures to adverse health outcomes to economic values. The annual value of the aggregate health benefits approaches $500 million (with a range of $295–$646 million) for ozone and exceeds $21 billion (with a range of $12.85–$34.22 billion) for fine particles. Such results are useful to regulatory agencies and other policy makers when evaluating the merits of various air pollution reduction strategies. (JEL Q51, Q53)     

Valuing Changes in the Quality of Coral Reef Ecosystems: A Stated Preference Study of SCUBA Diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park

We estimated the economic value of changes in the quality of a coral reef ecosystem to SCUBA divers in the Caribbean using a stated preference mail survey. Our sampling frame was all divers with U.S. home addresses who purchased a tag required for diving in the Bonaire National Marine Park in 2001. Divers were asked how they might have altered their trip choice had the quality of the coral reef system been different from what they experienced. From these responses we inferred the value of three different levels of quality defined by visibility, species diversity, and percent coral cover. We used random utility theory and mixed logit to analyze the choice questions. Our sample size was 211, and our survey response rate was 75%. For modest changes in quality we estimated per person annual losses at $45. For larger losses the value was $192. Presented at the 3rd World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists in Kyoto, Japan, July 2006.     

Economic evaluation of a pharmacogenomic multi-gene panel test to optimize anti-hypertension therapy: simulation study

Abstract

Aims: Hypertension is the strongest modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, affecting 80 million individuals in the US and responsible for ～360,000 deaths, at total annual costs of $93.5 billion. Antihypertension therapies guided by single genotypes are clinically more effective and may avert more adverse events than the standard of care of layering anti-hypertensive drug therapies, thus potentially decreasing costs. This study aimed to determine the economic benefits of the implementation of multi-gene panel guided therapies for hypertension from the payer perspective within a 3-year time horizon.

Materials and methods: A simulation analysis was conducted for a panel of 10 million insured patients categorized clinically as untreated, treated but uncontrolled, and treated and controlled over a 3-year treatment period. Inputs included research data; empirical data from a 11-gene panel with known functional, heart, blood vessel, and kidney genotypes; and therapy efficacy and safety estimates from literature. Cost estimates were categorized as related to genetic testing, evaluation and management, medication, or adverse events.

Results: Multi-gene panel guided therapy yielding savings of $6,256,607,500 for evaluation and management, $908,160,000 for medications, and $37,467,508,716 for adverse events, after accounting for incremental genetic testing costs of $2,355,540,000. This represents total 3-year savings of $42,276,736,216, or a 47% reduction, and 3-year savings of $4,228 and annual savings of $1,409 per covered patient.

Conclusions: A precision medicine approach to genetically guided therapy for hypertension patients using a multi-gene panel reduced total 3-year costs by 47%, yielding savings exceeding $42.3 billion in an insured panel of 10 million patients. Importantly, 89% of these savings are generated by averting specific adverse events and, thus, optimizing choice of therapy in function of both safety and efficacy.