中国金融业发展的全能银行研究

全能银行的发展是一个自然历史演化过程，有其深刻的宏观经济背景和微观经济动因，以及自身的动力。各种全能银行模式是与各国的工业化的发展模式相适应的银行组织形式。中国全能银行应服务于中国企业集团的国际市场战略，应整合国内市场的银、证、保等业务，通过并购、重组等手段，以构建国际一流的全能银行集团。     

构建金融控股集团公司的思考

我国国有商业银行与发达国家全能银行相比存在两大差距，我国目前仍不具备发展的全能银行模式和银行母公司模式所需要的金融监管能力，完善的资本市场和市场经营主体，构建金融控股集团公司是我国现阶段的一个现实选择，是我国金融发展新思路的集中体现，它的特点与“阶段发展，多元投资，适度超前，国际接轨”的目标相一致。     

我国金融业重组模式

从世界各国的实践来看,金融业重组就是由分业经营向混业经营发展.金融业混业经营主要有三种模式:一是以德国为代表的全能银行模式,即在银行内部设置业务部门,全面经营银行、证券、保险、信托等金融业务;二是银行母子公司模式,即商业银行对证券公司、保险公司和信托投资公司控股,直接以子公司的方式进行业务渗透和扩张;三是金融控股公司模式,即在相关的金融机构之上建立金融控股公司,通过对银行、证券、保险和信托子公司控股实现业务渗透,各子公司相对独立运作,但在诸如风险管理和投资决策等方面以控股公司为中心.从我国金融业发展的现状来看,我国目前仍不具备发展全能银行模式和银行母子公司模式这两种混业经营所需要的金融监管能力、完善的资本市场和市场经营主体.     

全能银行论

<全能银行论>是发表于[美]<经济暸望杂志>(Journal of Economic Perspectives)1994年夏第3期(卷8)的一篇综述性文章.作者乔治·J·本斯通(George J·Benston)是美国乔治亚州亚特兰大市艾默瑞(Emory)大学金融、会计与经济学教授,他从20世纪70年代开始就一直跟踪研究全能银行问题,并对德国的全能银行体制和1929-1933年大危机之前、之中的美国全能银行进行了深入研究.本文认为,限制银行业从事证券业务的分业经营模式,是对全能银行在大危机中"负面"作用和表现的历史误解,也是证券行业因既得利益和自身无能而推行行业垄断的结果.在考察了全能银行与金融稳定性、经济发展、金融机构之间的竞争、经济与政治权力的集中度、消费者选择及利益冲突等六大问题后,文章得出的结论是全能银行利大于弊,美国应实行全能银行制.因而,本文对1999年11月起美国推行的全能银行制,发挥了重要的理论指导和现实推动作用.对探究中国金融业混业经营问题也具有借鉴意义.     

次贷危机对美国银行业结构调整影响研究

次贷危机正以前所未有的力度改写着美国银行业的格局。美国银行业将经历一轮市场结构的整合,银行业的集中和垄断程度将进一步上升。随着传统银行经营模式的复兴,影子银行将继续萎缩,银行的杠杆率进一步降低,盲目做大表外业务和顺周期的经营方式将有所改变。以金融控股公司为主的全能银行仍将是美国银行业的主要发展模式,全能银行通过分拆之路从追求范围经济向归核化转变。全球金融危机造就金融监管改革的契机,监管机构将从资本管理、信息披露和流动性管理等方面对银行业实施更加全面严格的监管。     

加入WTO我国银行业如何应对全能银行的挑战

在中国加入世界贸易组织两年之后 ,外资银行将获准在中国经营外汇业务 ,同中国企业进行人民币业务 ;五年之后 ,外资银行将获准在中国金融市场上经营人民币零售业务 ,地域限制和客户限制将取消。在金融市场向外资银行开放后 ,国有商业银行将丧失其传统垄断地位 ,外资银行凭藉完备的全能银行优势与中资银行展开激烈的客户争夺战。对此 ,我国银行业将如何来应对 ,显然是一个需要重视的问题。　　一、全能型银行体制已经成为现代金融业的发展潮流纵观世界各国的金融制度可以分为两种 :全能银行制和专业银行制。全能银行可以提供包括商业银行、投…     

解读外国商业银行的混业经营与监管

外国商业银行混业经营的三种模式考察经济发达国家的商业银行,其业务经营范围普遍比较广泛。商业银行在证券、保险、房地产以及非金融公司等方面一般没有受到太多的限制。世界范围内商业银行混业经营模式可以划分为三类:德国全能银行模式、日英的母银行模式以及美国的控股公司模式。全能银行模式。这种模式的特点是银行以自己的账户从事证券保险等业务,部门作为内部附属机构而存在,没有独立的权力,且各业务之间联系紧密,整个体系为一级法人体系。全能银行型模式在业务经营方面最具开放性和自由性,是最彻底的混业经营。该模式可以使商业银行…     

金融控股公司:中国商业银行综合化经营的可行选择

综合化经营作为国际银行业发展的主流模式，是国内经济金融发展的必然要求，为中国商业银行积极实践综合化经营提供了必要和可能。金融控股公司是综合化经营的重要形式，相对于全能银行和母子公司制银行两种方式更具有相对优势，应成为我国商业银行综合化经营的组织模式。     

德国全能银行制度及其对我国的启示

德国全能银行制度具有业务领域充分多元化、通过股权投资形成业务网络、广泛的集团外部相互持股以及全能银行是证券市场的主体等特点。德国全能银行的优势主要体现在经济范围优势、资金优势、成本优势、网络优势以及抗风险优势等方面;其潜在风险因素包括道德风险、投机风险以及传导风险。德国金融监管制度是德国全能银行制度得以顺利实行的根本保障。我国银行业实行全能银行制具有必要性和可行性,发展全能银行是我国商业银行的必然选择。     

我国商业银行经营模式的结构再造:基于国外零售银行发展趋势的价值链分析

当前国际零售银行业发展具有三方面变化:一是满意的客户成为行业最稀缺的资源;二是价值创造由“后台”向“前台”转移;三是信息技术成为零售银行实施增长战略的根本。行业价值链日趋动态化和开放性,零售银行商业模式趋向专业化和集中化,市场呈现为少数全能零售银行与众多专业化机构结成的网络。为了降低成本和提高效率,增强竞争力,我国商业银行应该按照专业化和集中化的要求实现商业模式重新定位和结构再造。具体可支持发展一些“全能零售银行”、培养银行业的“产品生产者”和“分销者”,加快发展零售银行的“管理者”模式。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.