How Robust is the Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence

Previous literature has established a positive correlation between openness to international trade and GDP per capita growth for developed and developing economies in recent decades. However, looking at historical evidence from 1870 to the present, this paper finds no support for a positive growth-openness connection before 1970. In fact, the correlation is negative for the period 1920–1940. Cross-country growth regressions estimated for the period 1920–1990 suggest that the positive correlation between openness and growth is only a recent phenomenon. The paper provides useful conclusions regarding the robustness not only of the openness variables but also of other growth determinants.     

Effect of trade openness on regional economic growth in China: revisiting the discussion

Increasing openness contributes to economic growth in developing countries, but the endogeneity problem impedes drawing this conclusion. This paper uses the constructed trade share to circumvent the effects of endogeneity according to a method proposed by Frankel and Romer. The results demonstrate that increasing openness has a positive impact on provinces’ GDP and GDP per capita. In addition, an increase in lagged openness is beneficial for present economic growth, and even openness gained many years ago, which is measured by the number of treaty ports, makes a difference in present economic growth.     

Economic openness and income growth in developing countries: a regional comparative analysis

This article examines and compares the openness–growth relationship between the high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs) and the rest of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa-SSA, South East Asia-SEA and Latin America and Caribbean-LAC). We applied the SYS-GMM estimator to a dynamic standard endogenous growth model which relates economic openness to real per capita income growth. A few key findings emerged from this study. First, economic openness led to increase in real per capita GDP growth in HPAEs and SSA, but not in LAC and SEA. Second, openness to trade accelerated income convergence among countries in SSA, SEA, and HPAEs, however, whereas foreign direct investment inflows accelerated income convergence only in SSA, it rather de-accelerated income convergence in HPAEs. Thirdly, the HPAEs recorded higher positive effect of openness on real per capita GDP growth than any of the other developing regions because they created sufficient stock of human capital that enhanced their absorptive capacity of imported advanced technology. They also created a more stable macroeconomic environment which consolidated the income growth gains from openness. The results of this study highlight the importance of the implementation of policies that are complementary to economic openness in promoting economic growth in the developing world.     

Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration

This paper investigates flows of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI-to-GDP ratios in a sample of 62 countries over a 30 year time span. Using several endogenous structural break procedures (allowing for one and two break points), we find that: (1) the great majority of the series have structural breaks in the last 15 years, (2) post-break FDI and FDI/GDP ratios are substantially higher than the pre-break values, and (3) most breaks seem to be related to globalization, regional economic integration, economic growth, or political instability. Static and dynamic panel-data analyses accounting for and/or addressing endogeneity, simultaneity, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence show that FDI is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and GDP per capita, but positively related to some regional integration agreements, trade openness, GDP, and GDP growth. Most notably, the European Union is the only regional economic integration unit found to consistently have significant and positive effects on FDI.     

Openness in the Canadian economy: 1870–1988

The causal relation between openness and GDP and between exports and imports are examined. Causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870–1988 openness, both narrowly and broadly defined, Granger-causes GDP growth; tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results, validating causality from GDP growth to export plus import growth, but rejecting causlaity from GDP growth to export growth; it was also found that export growth causes import growth, but not the opposite. Causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of Canadian economic development. While the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries, no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of Canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments.     

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.     

Sources of inequality in selected MENA countries

The paper deals with income inequality in the selected MENA countries focusing on the dynamics of domestic wage differentiations. The main aim is to identify the sources of inequalities. GDP per capita, share of manufacturing sector, urban share of population, gender participation in the labor force, education and openness may be possible factors. The paper analyzes pay inequalities using a panel regression model where the Theil index is used as the dependent variable. The results show that GDP per capita and female labor force participation have positive (increasing) effects, and openness has a negative (decreasing) effect on pay inequalities in these countries.     

Gender‐specific Human Capital,Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia

Using data covering 1970–2008 for South Asia, this study investigates the influence of human capital disaggregated by gender, on economic growth. We use an extended version of the Solow growth model with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) a function of the key variables, viz. physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation, trade openness and capital flows, fiscal policy and financial development. The key contribution of this study is to show that openness when interacted with the human capital stock disaggregated by gender, has differential impacts on economic growth. While the positive impact of male secondary schooling captures the direct skill effect relative to primary schooling, the marginal influence of female primary/secondary schooling fails to show a positive impact on growth at higher levels of openness. An implication stemming from this study is that educational opportunities for females at the secondary level should be increased for South Asia.     

In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward

This paper challenges the widespread belief that FDI generally has a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and re-examines the FDI-led growth hypothesis for 28 developing countries using cointegration techniques on a country-by-country basis. The paper finds that in the vast majority of countries, there exists neither a long-term nor a short-term effect of FDI on growth; in fact, there is not a single country where a positive unidirectional long-term effect from FDI to GDP is found. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is no clear association between the growth impact of FDI and the level of per capita income, the level of education, the degree of openness and the level of financial market development in developing countries.     

R&D spending in the high-tech sector and economic growth

The present paper provides new estimates of the impact of investment in R&D on long-term economic growth. In particular, we estimate a dynamic empirical growth model using panel data for OECD countries from 1970 to 2004. This study is the first to investigate whether the specialization of R&D activities (i.e. share of R&D investment in the high-tech sector) has an additional effect on GDP per working age population. Using a system GMM estimator in order to control for endogeneity, we find that both the ratio of business enterprises’ R&D expenditures to GDP and the share of R&D investment in the high-tech sector have strong positive effects on GDP per capita and GDP per hour worked in the long term.     

Natural resource dependence, non-tradables, and economic growth

I argue that the commonly used nominal measure of natural resource dependence – the share of exports of primary products in GNP – understates in growth regressions the negative link between natural resource dependence and per capita GDP growth. I show that using a purchasing power parity adjusted measure yields an economically much larger negative relationship between per capita GDP growth and natural resource dependence than what has been suggested by the nominal measure. Consistent with the rent-seeking literature, I show that the resource curse is a symptom of societies characterized by high levels of corruption and sluggish checks and balances on political decision-making.     

Productivity and per capita GDP growth: The role of the forgotten factors

Average hourly productivity has often been used to draw conclusions on long run per capita GDP growth, based on the assumption of full utilization of labor resources. In this paper, we argue that a failure to recognize the potential significant wedges among the two variables - even in the long run - can be misleading. By applying both time series and panel cointegration techniques on data on 19 OECD countries, we fail to reject the hypothesis of the absence of a long run common stochastic trend among the two variables in the period 1980-2005. Furthermore, we apply a simple decomposition of GDP growth into five variables, including some related to the supply-side and demographics, so to verify the single contributions to income growth and variance over our period of interest. We conclude that variables that have been so far absent in the growth literature indeed have a non-negligible role in explaining the dynamics of long run per capita GDP growth. In particular, these “forgotten factors” (that we identify with the employment and the activity rates and a demographic ratio) matter more in better performing economies, where we also highlight that productivity has been less important in determining GDP growth than in relatively bad performers.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

Inequality and economic growth: the role of initial income

We estimate a panel model where the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth depends on countries’ initial incomes. Estimates of the model show that the relationship between inequality and GDP per capita growth is significantly decreasing in countries’ initial incomes. Results from instrumental variables regressions show that in Low Income Countries transitional growth is boosted by greater income inequality. In High Income Countries inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional growth. For the median country in the world, that in the year 2015 had a PPP GDP per capita of around 10000USD, IV estimates predict that a 1 percentage point increase in the Gini coefficient decreases GDP per capita growth over a 5-year period by over 1 percentage point; the long-run effect on the level of GDP per capita is around ??5%.     

Service trade network structure and its determinants in the Belt and Road based on the temporal exponential random graph model

Service trade has become an important engine of world economic growth. Using complex network method and temporal exponential random graph models, we constructed the Belt and Road service trade networks (BR-STNs) and global service trade networks (G-STNs) in 2010–2017, systematically analysed the features of BR-STNs compared with G-STNs, and tested the factors affecting their evolution. We find that (a) the scale of BR-STNs is small, but potential is huge. The BR-STNs present the features of small-world, larger degree disassortativity, lower reciprocity, and smaller heterogeneity than G-STNs. (b) The BR-STNs are divided into three communities and their pattern is more stable than G-STNs. (c) Luxembourg, Italy and Singapore are the core in BR-STNs, but there is a gap compared with the USA, the UK and Germany. (d) Reciprocity, structural embeddedness, the clustering effect and stability play important roles in the evolution of BR-STNs and these effects increased after the proposal of the BRI. Economy-pairs with similar trade openness, urbanization rates and quality of institution, and with different GDP and per capita GDP are more likely to trade. Countries with higher GDP, trade openness or quality of institution are active. Sharing a language, religion, colonial relationship or border, signing regional trade agreements and using a common currency facilitate service trade between countries in BR.     

Cuba’s reform and economic growth: a comparative perspective with Vietnam

Cuban reform process lags behind the GDP growth reached by the Vietnamese. When comparing the evolution of the different sectors and demand components of GDP, Vietnam has had higher growth rates in all cases, highlighting exports first and investment second. Once the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model has been estimated, the significant effect of the foreign exchange constraints on growth for both countries is confirmed. However, the Vietnam growth can be explained not only by its export success. International openness, which included the end of the US embargo, and institutional factors also explains the differential of results.     

A panel data analysis of the effect of corruption on tourism

This study empirically tests the hypothesis that corruption has a negative effect on tourism. Having to pay bribes while on holiday or a business trip increases the costs of travelling to a country where corruption is prevalent. Tourists are thus more likely to travel to countries where these additional costs do not need to be incurred. This hypothesis is tested using a panel data set of over 100 countries and 16 years. The results indicate that a 1-point increase in the Corruption Perception Index (implying a decrease in corruption) results in a 2% to 7% increase in tourist inflows. In addition, tourist inflows rise with GDP per capita, openness and growth and are higher in countries with a temperate climate.     

Trade openness and government size of small developing countries

This paper examines the causal effect that trade openness has on government size in small developing countries (SDCs). We use the construction of the trade cost variables based on Baltic Dry Index in primary goods as instruments of trade openness to address the endogeneity issue. We find that the increase in trade openness leads to an increase in government size: a 1 percent expansion in trade openness (trade GDP ratio) raises government consumption over GDP ratio by approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points on average. Its quantitative significance emphasizes the importance of rethinking the costs and benefits of trade openness for SDCs.     

Trade-induced technological change: Analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963–2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.