Structural Analysis of a Developing Economy Using the Conventional and Augmented Input-Output Matrix Methods — A Comparison for Sri Lanka

This paper explains why and how the conventional Input-Output Method should be modified to develop the Augmented Input-Output Matrix Method in order to study the structure of a developing economy using Multiplier and Linkage Analysis. This alternative methodology with an endogenous Household Sector is expected to provide a better picture of the structure of the economy by treating demand as partially endogenous and allowing for induced linkage effects transmitted across various sectors of the economy. In contrast, such induced linkage effects are absent in the conventional methodology which is based on the technical relationships of production alone.

Applying the two methods on the economy of Sri Lanka using the Input-Output Tables for 1986 and 1994, we find that the Augmented Input-Output Matrix Method changes the relative importance of the various sectors in terms of their output multipliers and backward linkage strengths, for each of the two years. Overtime, however, the Augmented Input-Output Matrix Method shows less variations in the multipliers, linkages and the resulting key sectors of the economy while rendering the economy more traditional and service-oriented in character. Manufacturing and allied sectors are more often absent than present among the strong or key sectors of the economy.

Economic Liberalization was initiated in the 1970’s in Sri Lanka. But the economy has not yet experienced any fundamental change in its structure. The results of the Augmented Matrix Method suggest that the economy should be more diversified and modernized in order to fully reap the benefits of liberalization in terms of economic growth.

     

Integrating the valuation of ecosystem services into the Input-Output economics of an Alpine region

Traditional economic accounting mostly ignores the benefits provided by nature, and thus falls short in giving incentives for improving the way the economy uses natural resources. In this study, we develop a general framework for integrating the value of ecosystem services into an Input-Output Table. In particular, we integrate regionally valued ecosystem services on the supply side of an Input-Output Table to quantify what natural resources offer to economic development. Using several different indicators, we show the benefits of the ecosystem services under the status quo and a scenario for regional development. Our results suggest that economic activities should be encouraged to use the ecosystem services more intensively, while landscape development should aim at providing the required services. We conclude that such an approach can provide a platform for decision-makers to learn quantitatively about the dependency of the regional economy on natural services.     

Comparison of alternative methods of updating Input-Output tables: A note

Various methods for updating Input-Output tables have been proposed and comparisons have been made on statistical bases. In this note we show on theoretical bases that several linear programming formulations are not suitable to this problem, since a large proportion of the resulting coefficients assume arbitrarily preset values.     

Testing for Ongoing Convergence in Transition Economies, 1970 to 1998

In this paper, the authors use a time-varying parameters procedure to test for a common growth path in the ex-Communist bloc, both pre- and postreform. They test whether there has been convergence within the bloc or between the bloc as a group and the West. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of convergence within the bloc, which brings into question the effectiveness of policies to reduce differentials in income per capita under the Communists. There is also little evidence of convergence with respect to the West, either during the period from 1970 to 1990 or if the reform years are included (i.e., 1970 to 1998). J. Comp. Econ., December 2001, 29(4), pp. 677–691. © 2001 Elsevier ScienceJournal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O40, C22, C23, C15.     

The economic impacts of river rehabilitation: A regional Input-Output analysis

We developed a model to predict the impacts of river rehabilitation activities on the local economy. The model is based on the Input-Output analysis technique and was applied to the planned rehabilitation project for the River Thur in northern Switzerland, along the 4 km stretch between the communities of Bürglen and Weinfelden. We estimated changes in local employment and local economic output resulting from government spending on rehabilitation, associated changes in adjacent land use, and increased recreational activity. Accounting for land use changes required a modification of the conventional Input-Output analysis technique which should be of general interest. We accounted for uncertainty in the data and in some of the model assumptions by using a probabilistic formulation and propagating uncertainty through the model equations. As time-consuming local surveys were beyond the scope of this study, we used the Location Quotient non-survey technique to construct the local technical coefficients from national data and local employment data. This implies that the model can be applied quite easily to a different study area in Switzerland as long as local employment data are available. For each CHF 1 million expenditure per year on rehabilitation activities in our study region, we estimate an extra 8 fulltime employment equivalents (standard deviation, σ = 0.4 fte) and an increased output of CHF 1.4 million (σ = CHF 0.05 million). The low uncertainty of these estimates can be partly attributed to the structure of Input-Output analysis and partly to the fact that we estimated changes in the economic output, rather than output itself. In addition to the above impacts, we estimate that increased recreational use of the area will increase output by as much as CHF 0.17 million (σ = CHF 0.12 million) and employment by as much as 1.7 fulltime employment equivalents (σ = 1.3 fte), depending on the specific rehabilitation option selected.     

产品内分工视角下服务贸易竞争力的影响因素及其启示

产品内分工影响服务贸易的基本途径是服务外包;基于11个OECD国家投入产出表的数据,实证分析了制造业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入和服务业消耗的生产性服务业中间投入、生产性服务业的劳动力成本和信息与通讯技术发展水平对服务贸易竞争力的影响,并给出了政策启示。     

A New Matrix Theorem: Interpretation in Terms of Internal Trade Structure and Implications for Dynamic Systems

Economic systems often are described in matrix form as x = Mx. We present a new theorem for systems of this type where M is square, nonnegative and indecomposable. The theorem discloses the existence of additional economic relations that have not been discussed in the literature up to now, and gives further insight in the economic processes described by these systems. As examples of the relevance of the theorem we focus on static and dynamic closed Input-Output (I-O) models. We show that the theorem is directly relevant for I-O models formulated in terms of difference or differential equations. In the special case of the dynamic Leontief model the systems behavior is shown to depend on the properties of matrix M = A + C where A and C are the matrices of intermediate and capital coefficients, respectively. In this case, C is small relative to A and a perturbation result can be employed which leads directly to a statement on the systems eigenvalues. This immediately suggests a solution to the well-known problem of the instability of the dynamic Leontief model.     

A note on the one-deviation property in extensive form games

In an extensive form game, an assessment is said to satisfy the one-deviation property if for all possible payoffs at the terminal nodes the following holds: if a player at each of his information sets cannot improve upon his expected payoff by deviating unilaterally at this information set only, he cannot do so by deviating at any arbitrary collection of information sets. Hendon et al. (1996. Games Econom. Behav. 12, 274–282) have shown that pre-consistency of assessments implies the one-deviation property. In this note, it is shown that an appropriate weakening of pre-consistency, termed updating consistency, is both a sufficient and necessary condition for the one-deviation property. The result is extended to the context of rationalizability.     

Asymmetric information without common priors: an indirect evolutionary analysis of quantity competition

The common prior assumption justifies private beliefs as posterior probabilities when updating a common prior based on individual information. We dispose of the common prior assumption for a homogeneous oligopoly market with uncertain costs and firms entertaining arbitrary priors about other firms’ cost-type. We show that true prior beliefs can not be evolutionarily stable when truly expected profit measures (reproductive) success.     

Bayesian–Walrasian equilibria: beyond the rational expectations equilibrium

In general rational expectations equilibrium (REE), as introduced in Radner (Econometrica 47:655–678, 1978) in an Arrow–Debreu–McKenzie setting with uncertainty, does not exist. Moreover, it fails to be fully Pareto optimal and incentive compatible and is also not implementable as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of an extensive form game (Glycopantis et al. in Econ Theory 26:765–791, 2005). The lack of all the above properties is mainly due to the fact that the agents are supposed to predict the equilibrium market clearing price (as agent’s expected maximized utility is conditioned on the information that equilibrium prices reveal), which leads inevitably to the presumption that agents know all the primitives in the economy, i.e., random initial endowments, random utility functions and private information sets. To get around this problematic equilibrium notion, we introduce a new concept called Bayesian–Walrasian equilibrium (BWE) which has Bayesian features. In particular, agents try to predict the market-clearing prices using Bayesian updating and evaluate their consumption in terms of Bayesian price estimates, which are different for each individual. In this framework agents maximize expected utility conditioned on their own private information about the state of nature, subject to a Bayesian estimated budget constraint. Market clearing is not an intrinsic part of the definition of BWE. However, both in the case of perfect foresight and in the case of symmetric information BWE leads to a statewise market clearing; it then becomes an ex post Walrasian equilibrium allocation. This new BWE exists under standard assumptions, in contrast to the REE. In particular, we show that our new BWE exists in the well-known example in Kreps (J Econ Theory 14:32–43, 1977), where REE fails to exist. This work was done in the Spring of 2005, when EJB was a visiting professor at the University of Illinois.     

Joining a Queue or Staying Out: Effects of Information Structure and Service Time on Arrival and Staying Out Decisions

We study a class of single-server queueing systems with a finite population size, FIFO queue discipline, and no balking or reneging. In contrast to the predominant assumptions of queueing theory of exogenously determined arrivals and steady state behavior, we investigate queueing systems with endogenously determined arrival times and focus on transient rather than steady state behavior. When arrival times are endogenous, the resulting interactive decision process is modeled as a non-cooperative n-person game with complete information. Assuming discrete strategy spaces, the mixed-strategy equilibrium solution for groups of n = 20 agents is computed using a Markov chain method. Using a 2 × 2 between-subject design (private vs. public information by short vs. long service time), arrival and staying out decisions are presented and compared to the equilibrium predictions. The results indicate that players generate replicable patterns of behavior that are accounted for remarkably well on the aggregate, but not individual, level by the mixed-strategy equilibrium solution unless congestion is unavoidable and information about group behavior is not provided.JEL Classification: C71, C92, D81     

Exogenous information and input-output updating: An evaluation

Input-output coefficients' intertemporal instability, costs, and time lags involved in the construction of survey-based tables necessitate employment of nonsurvey updating techniques. Analysts, however, may want to include exogenous information in the updating process. The issue, then, is whether this inclusion ameliorates or aggravates the results. This paper attempts to assess the wisdom of incorporating exogenous information into the updating procedure. First, using the naive, RAS, and LaGrangian techniques, the 1966 table of the former Soviet Union was updated to 1972. Next, treating the top 10 percent largest 1972 coefficients as exogenous estimates, the remaining coefficients were updated via the same three methods. Comparison of the results indicates that exogenous determination of the largest coefficients does not change the methods' rankings while yielding substantial improvements in the forecasts. This paper was presented at the Forty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Boston, MA, October 8–11, 1998.     

Factor-price equalization under joint and nonjoint production

We investigate how joint production affects the likelihood of factor price equalization (FPE) through trade. Following up on recent contributions by Samuelson (1992) and Jones (1992), we propose to take the relative size of the FPE region of endowment distributions to measure this likelihood, and we show that it mayincrease even if joint production leads to adecrease of the number of basic production processes, and it maydecrease even if the number of basic production processes operated in equilibrium isthe same as under nonjoint production. A 2×2×2 example is analyzed in more detail. Moreover, we show that the argument of Jones (1992) can be reinterpreted in a more applied direction by considering the effects of switching from a regime where only intermediate products are traded to a regime where all products are traded. The paper shows that the likelihood of FPE may decrease by integrating product markets in this way. Still more surprising is the fact that integration may even destroy FPE.     

Profitability and Concentration in Australian Manufacturing Industries 1970-71 to 1972-73:A Further Examination*

In a recent issue of the Economic Record, D. K. Round found that, using I.A.C. data for 32 industries for the period 1970-71 to 1972–1973, sales-based measures of profitability were linked positively and significantly with concentration, but that funds-based measures showed a negative relationship. In this paper, the I AC profitability ratios are adjusted from an historical cost to a current value basis. Regressions of the adjusted profitability ratios on concentration, over the period 1970-71 to 1972-73, conflict with Round's finding that the concentration coefficient using net profit/sales was significant, and a much weaker relationship is found with all of the regressions that used adjusted, as compared to unadjusted, I AC profitability ratios.     

A contribution to the empirics of convergence in real GDP growth: the role of financial crises and exchange-rate regimes

This paper investigates the convergence in real gross domestic product growth focusing on the impact of financial crises (i.e. banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and nominal exchange-rate regimes (i.e. fixed, intermediate and flexible) on convergence. To that end, we compute four convergence indicators (σ-convergence, γ-convergence, absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence) for 163 countries classified into four income groups during the period 1970–2011. The results suggest that (i) there is evidence in favour of σ-convergence and γ-convergence only for high-income countries; (ii) absolute and conditional β-convergence are present in each of the four income groups of the countries under study; (iii) exchange-rate regimes seem to play some role in upper-middle and lower-middle-income countries; and (iv) financial crises have a negative and significant impact on GDP growth independently of the income level of the countries.     

Results of a Delphi survey in drawing up the input-output tables for Catalonia

This work presents the results of an ambitious and innovative use of the Delphi technique in supplying a quantitative economic model, specifically in the preparation of the Input-Output Tables for Catalonia (TIOC 2001). Using this technique for obtaining subjective information from experts comes forward as a valid and reliable option for improving the quality of the data with which the Input-Output tables are constructed, also providing further economic and social advantages. The application presented thus opens up an interesting field of development for this technique and also gives several contributions for appraising the execution of a Delphi exercise of this type.     

中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵的编制

本文从突出金融部门角度 ,编制了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵 ,该项研究对于决策者和研究人员全面了解和分析地区经济状况 ,提供了科学的经济数据库。首先 ,论文从宏观经济循环角度 ,在分析了金融部门和地区部门的特点基础上 ,研究了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵的结构和内容 ;其次 ,以《江苏投入产出表》( 2 0 0 0 )和《江苏统计年鉴》为基础 ,结合大量调查 ,编制了江苏宏观金融社会核算矩阵 ;最后 ,利用跨熵 (crossentropy ,CE)技术 ,对矩阵进行了平衡处理