日本会成为贸易逆差国吗?——基于经常项目的跨期均衡分析

战后日本贸易长期顺差,它支撑了日本经济的顺利增长。2011年日本贸易收支却出现自1980年以来的首次贸易逆差。那么,日本的贸易逆差会否成为一种长期趋势,日本会成为贸易逆差国吗?作为世界第一大出口国和日本的重要贸易伙伴国,中国又会从中得到什么样的启示?这是本文关注的重点问题。针对该问题,我们以跨期迭代模型为理论基础,从日本的财政状况和人口特征角度入手,并利用1965~2013年的时间序列数据进行了实证检验。结果显示:第一,政府预算差额对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用;第二,少儿抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的正向作用,老年抚养比对日本经常项目差额有显著的负向作用,而且老年抚养比比少儿抚养比的作用更为明显;第三,日本财政赤字的不断攀升和少子老龄化的持续发展,带来了日本总储蓄率的不断下降和海外净资产的持续上升,这一降一升意味着日本的贸易逆差可能会成为一种趋势,日本有迈入逆差国的内在因素。本文的结论对于中国也有相当的借鉴意义。     

中、日、韩在美国市场上的竞争性分析

本文应用显性比较优势指数(RCA)和斯皮尔曼等级系数测量了1999到2003年中、日、韩三国在美国市场上的竞争情况及其变化,得出中、日、韩三国在美国市场上存在竞争,而且中国和日本、中国和韩国的竞争有不断加剧的趋势,日本和韩国的竞争性虽有不断下降的趋势,但总体竞争性还是比较强。     

学会与13亿人沟通

"终于被中国赶超过去了。"当2010年中国GDP比日本多出4044亿美元时,大多数日本人心里,会有这种感觉。不仅如此,很多日本人都明确地知道中国是世界的增长中心,其存在感不断地提高。     

学会与13亿人沟通

＂终于被中国赶超过去了。＂当2010年中国GDP比日本多出4044亿美元时,大多数日本人心里,会有这种感觉。不仅如此,很多日本人都明确地知道中国是世界的增长中心,其存在感不断地提高。     

20世纪90年代日本商业银行破产原因分析及启示

20世纪90年代日本许多金融机构和银行相继破产,这其中的主要原因既有汇率因素和货币政策因素,也有制度性因素和金融管理方面的因素等。当今中国经济发展中有一些迹象与泡沫经济破灭前后的日本相似:本币升值,国际热钱不断流入,股票价格暴涨暴跌等。我国要汲取日本的教训,防止金融机构和银行出现系统性危机。     

日本港口设施的老化及更新改造

一、近年日本港口设施老化的现状1.日本港口的设施老化据统计,在日本现有的1064个港口中,主体港口设施约有4.4万个,分别为水域设施、外围设施、相关设施、临港交通设施等。1950年前,日本港口主体设施为数不多。此后60多年来,日本港口设施建设不断发展和完善。1960～2010年年均港口设施建设约增200个。     

日本劳动力市场的特征与发展变化

在战后日本的经济发展中,劳动力市场的培育和发展起了重要作用。日本的劳动力市场和雇佣机制及工资制度等,都有一系列与众不同的特点。随着日本经济和社会的不断发展变化,这些特点也发生变化或日益受到挑战。一、日本劳动力市场的主要特征过去一般认为大企业劳动者的劳动力市场与中小企业劳动者的劳动力市场同时并存的二元性,是日本劳动力市场的典型特征。但是,仅这一特征还不足以充分说明日本劳动力市场的二元性特征全貌。笔者认为,日本劳动力市场的二元性主要有三个特征。（－）大企业劳动者的劳动力市场与中小企业劳动者的劳动力市…     

日本劳动力供不应求和中日劳务合作

长期以来,日本人口增长缓慢,老龄化不断发展,近年日本的劳务市场出现了明显的供不应求的局面。在这种情况下,来日本就业工作的外国人大量增加,从而,外国劳动力问题成为日本社会所关注的一个课题。日本政府对此正在酝酿制定和调整有关政策,适当放宽对外国劳动者进入日本的限制。劳务合作是我国对外合作的重要领域之一,我们应该积极地,有计划、有步骤地开展中日之间的劳务合作。     

日本企业伦理与治理结构的协同演进与创新研究

第二次世界大战以后，日本企业开始采用内部控制型治理结构。之所以形成这种治理结构的根源在于日本企业的伦理属性决定了其企业的发展模式。从董事会治理伦理、股东治理伦理以及主银行治理伦理三个角度都可以体现出日本企业独特的治理特点。随着外部环境的不断变化，日本企业的治理结构和伦理观念在协同演进的过程中不断发展变化，两者的逻辑关系决定了日本企业治理结构的创新和发展方向。     

现代日本女性的地位现状分析

文章从日本女性的地位演变出发,分析了当今日本女性的地位现状.认为随着经济发展,文明程度不断提高,一直扮演着贤妻良母角色的日本女性女权意识越来越强,无论是在社会、职场、家庭中,女性地位均有或多或少的提高,她们以努力与自信赢得了更多的尊重.     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.