Transient Crowding and Crime:

A bstract . The effects on crime rates of the intrusion of large numbers of strangers into an area are investigated. The sensitivity of six different crime types ( murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary , and larceny ) to density of strangers is estimated using a standard model of criminal behavior. The variables which reflect this density are measures of tourists, college students, shoppers from other areas, opportunities to consume alcohol , and the presence of interstate highway exits. The results suggest that an increase in the number of strangers into an area has a positive effect on the crimes of burglary, larceny, and robbery, but very little effect on assault, murder and rape. A significant finding is that "wet" counties have a higher incidence of each crime type than do "dry" counties. From a policy standpoint, officials who support economic growth in urban areas should keep in mind that an increase in the opportunity for illegal activity accompanies such growth and plan accordingly.     

The Distribution of Criminal Offenses in an Urban Environment: A Spatial Analysis of Criminal Spillovers and of Juvenile Offenders

A bstract . In order to derive a basis for an optimal allocation of police manpower among contiguous communities criminal spillovers among these communities must be explicitly taken into account. Under the assumptions established in the economic theory of choice a criminal spillovers model is derived. The hypothesized variables within this model which serve as motivating factors for criminal spillovers are economic gain and competitive criminal pressures. Those factors which deter criminal spillovers are costs of committing offenses and the relative risks in committing crimes in distant communities. The model is then tested using data on juvenile offenders supplied by the City of Los Angeles , for the crimes of robbery, burglary and larceny. The results suggest that on an aggregate basis juvenile criminal behavior is not purely opportunistic and that certain control and motivating factors are significant in the juvenile's judgments for the spatial selection of offense targets.     

Crime in urban areas: New evidence and results

Crime supply functions are reestimated in this paper using data corrected for victim underreporting. It is found in both a mean-variance specification and a conventional crime supply function, which includes measures of the offender's gains and losses involved in property crimes, that certainty and severity of punishment still deter. When correction for underreporting is made, the effects on the rates of robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft of increases in prison admission rates and prison sentence lengths remain negative. This seeming support for the “deterrence hypothesis” must be balanced against the strong evidence that improved legitimate opportunities have a negative effect on crime. Use of improved crime data and a more intuitive economic specification of the offense supply function leads to the conclusion that higher income is a better deterrent to some crimes than increased punishment.     

An Examination of the Link Between Employment Volatility and the Spatial Distribution of Property Crime Rates

Abstract . Recent criminological research has produced inconsistent findings in its attempts to establish a statistical relationship between economic marginalization and the spatial distribution of crime rates. This paper contends that this inconsistency is partly attributable to the way in which economic marginalization has been conceptually defined and measured. By focusing strictly on unemployment and poverty as the processes that produce economic marginalization, researchers have ignored other important economic dynamics that can marginalize workers and provide an environment conducive to crime. Further, commonly used indicators of economic marginalization, such as the unemployment rate and poverty rate, fail to measure the full range of dynamics that produce marginalization. It is our contention that employment volatility represents an important source of economic marginalization that can help foster higher levels of criminal activity. This hypothesis is tested using regression procedures to analyze the effects of employment volatility measures and frequently identified structural correlates of crime on change in the rate of property crime offenses across 683 U.S. metropolitan counties during the 1980–1983 period. The findings suggest that high levels of employment volatility are conducive to the maintenance of higher levels of property crime in general, as well as less severe forms of property crime such as larceny, when such crimes are examined on an individual basis.     

Casinos,casino size,and crime: A panel data analysis of Michigan counties

Growth in legal gaming in the United States over the past quarter century or so is well-documented. One important factor fueling this growth was the passage of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act of 1988, which permitted Native American tribes to establish, under agreements or “compacts” with the states in which they are located, casinos offering what is known as Class III gaming: slot machines, blackjack, roulette, and other games. Since the passage of the Act, there have been 21 Native American casinos established in Michigan. Also, three non-Native American casinos opened in Detroit in 1999 and 2000. This growth in the number of casinos has sparked a wide-ranging debate over the social and economic impacts of casino development.The purpose of this research is to focus on the crime issue in the broader casino debate. We investigate the impact of these Michigan casinos on the rates of burglary, robbery, larceny and motor vehicle theft (property crimes) in casino host counties as well as in nearby counties. We employ a panel data set with annual observations on all 83 Michigan counties for the period 1994–2010. The dataset includes crime rates taken from the FBI crime data series, variables for the presence of a casino in a county or in a nearby county, the scale of a casino's operations as measured by revenues, and a variety of control variables suggested by the broader literature investigating the factors that determine crime rates generally.Our results suggest that in most cases the property crime rates studied are not affected by the presence or size of a casino in a county or in a nearby county. The largest such impact, which is negative, is for motor vehicle theft. The size of a casino does have a small positive effect on the motor vehicle theft rate.     

Economy and Race: Interactive Determinants of Property Crime in the United States, 1958-1995

ABSTRACT Drawing upon rational choice, routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study investigates changes in rates of property crime known (reported) to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995. Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and frictional unemployment; arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR); the interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment (to test effects of rising unemployment on whites versus blacks); and a measure of police provisioning. A Beach-MacKinnon Full Maximum-Likelihood FGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is employed. Significant positive effects are established for (a) inflation, (b) cyclical unemployment, (c) frictional unemployment, and (d) the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment. Police provisioning is not found to be significant. Policy implications are explored along with future policy considerations.     

Some Determinants of Property Crime: Economic Factors Influence Criminal Behavior But Cannot Completely Explain the Syndrome

Abstract . An empirical analysis of the property crimes, robbery, burglary and larceny, is presented for all 120 counties in Kentucky. While this analysis is based on an economic model of crime, certain sociological and legal variables are included as well in the system of equations. Overall, the empirical results support prior studies’findings with the exception that a quadratic relationship is found to exist between urbanization and each of the property crimes. Furthermore, neither the economic nor the non economic influences measured appear more important for affecting crime rates. Specifically, results indicate that the level of poverty, the degree of tourism, the presence of police, the unemployment rate and the apprehension rate all affect property crimes. In contrast, the length of sentence, the degree of industrialization, the level of public assistance payments and the proportion of youth in the county have no affect on property crime rates in these areas.     

How do trade openness,public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach

This study explores the relationship between trade openness, public expenditure, institutional performance, and unemployment in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (formerly the Organization of the Islamic Conference). The conventional panel data techniques overlook cross-sectional dependence and yield-biased results. A new methodology called dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) is employed to deal with the issue of cross-sectional dependence. The long-run results demonstrate that trade openness is inversely and significantly associated with overall unemployment and youth unemployment in lower-income as well as all the OIC economies and positively correlated in the higher-income OIC group. Public expenditure has an inverse and significant correlation with unemployment in OIC countries overall and higher-income OIC countries. Moreover, institutional performance and foreign direct investment are negatively related to unemployment in all OIC economies. The research shows the need for the continuation of open trade policies, strong institutions, and higher public expenditure in the OIC countries in order to decrease overall unemployment—in particular, youth unemployment.     

Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East,North Africa,Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region

This paper builds on existing research investigating the root causes of terrorism by considering youth unemployment as a measure of economic deprivation. In particular, the study focuses on terrorism in Middle Eastern and North African (MENAP) countries and features terrorism incident count data for the period 1998–2012 using negative binomial regression models. In our exogenous model, we find that while youth unemployment tends to increase domestic terrorism, it does not have any significant effect on transnational terrorism. Given concerns about endogeneity of youth unemployment in these models, we use two kinds of corrections-instrumental variables and lagged variables. We control for endogeneity by using military expenditure, under-five mortality rate and foreign direct investment as instruments. We are not able to reject the null hypothesis that youth unemployment is exogenous. Using lagged variables, we find a similar result as noted in the exogenous specifications with regard to the effect of youth unemployment on domestic and transnational terrorism. We also find evidence that domestic terrorism tends to have a positive relationship with press freedom, religious and linguistic fractionalization, and area of the country. Transnational terrorism has a positive association with the quality of democracy and a negative association with political stability and regulatory quality. The amount of natural resources tends to be negatively associated with domestic terrorism and positively associated with transnational terrorism.     

Larceny

A dynamic general equilibrium model of larceny - or property crime - is presented in which both economic conditions and government policies affect the commission calculus. The model provides a behavioral framework that is used to estimate the effects of government policies on the commission of larceny. Calibrating the model using data from cities in Los Angeles County, the impact of a number of government policies and of economic development on larceny are quantified. The simulations show that longer prison sentences and higher conviction rates for criminals are the most effective methods to reduce larceny; subsidizing leisure activities, increasing police expenditures and income transfers have little effect on larceny. Using a game-theoretic optimality criterion, all the policies examined are currently overfunded.     

Discussing the intriguing relation between unemployment and giving practices

This research attempts to provide responses to the question “Does unemployment make people less likely to give?” by developing a theoretical model based on consumer choice and labor supply and using data from the World Giving Index, collected for 153 countries from 2010 to 2015. The results from panel data and from ordered probit estimations revealed that countries with higher unemployment rates (especially male and female youth unemployment) are associated with values related to a less generous profile on the part of respondents. Our results were obtained while controlling for a convenient set of variables, and the estimated coefficients generated an extension of this discussion toward the models of welfare states and the giving practices worldwide.     

Distortionary Taxation and Labour Market Performance

Quarterly estimates of consumption, capital and labour tax rates are provided for six major OECD countries. We then use the 'stylized facts' methodology to evaluate the strength, sign and phase of cyclical comovements between tax rates and labour market variables. Labour taxes distort labour market de-cisions and help explain why the unemployment rate is so high in continental Europe. However, labour taxes cannot be the only determinant of diverging unemployment rates since the labour force is also reduced by higher taxes. Finally, we offer some preliminary structural evidence showing employment growth in particular to be negatively related to the taxation of labour.     

Demographic and education effects on unemployment in Europe

We analyse the effects of demographic and education changes on unemployment rates in Europe. Using a panel of European countries for the 1975–2002 period - disaggregated by cohort and education - we empirically test the economic effects of the “baby bust” and the “education boom”. We find that structural shifts in the population age structure play an important role and that a significant share of variation in unemployment rates is also attributable to educational changes, the latter being usually neglected in aggregate studies. Results show that demographic and education shocks are qualitatively different for young (adult) workers as well as for more (less) educated people. Changes in the population age structure are positively related to the unemployment rate of young workers, while have no effect on adults. Conversely, changes in the education structure show a negative effect on the unemployment of the more educated. Labour market institutions also influence unemployment rates in different ways. Employment protection for regular workers increases unemployment rates, while temporary employment provisions reduce it. Unemployment benefits are found to have a displacement effect on unemployment, while corporatism of wage bargaining improves employment performance.     

Some Alternative Definitions of Youth Unemployment: A Means for Improved Understanding and Policy Formulation

Abstract . Current definitions of unemployment are inadequate for analyzing and understanding the problem of youth unemployment in the United States. By focusing on alternative definitions of youth unemployment, this study seeks to better understand the nature of the problem. Alternative rates of unemployment using data disaggregated by age, race, and gender from 1971 to 1983 are presented. Some findings: (1) all of the rates taken together provide a much better understanding of the youth unemployment problem; and (2) more effort should be devoted to developing, analyzing, and applying alternative concepts of satisfactory or unsatisfactory status for young people. Further, detailed studies of the activities, needs, and goals of a diverse population of young people and of societal preferences are clearly warranted. Without such efforts, youth unemployment policies will most likely be misdirected.     

Impact of the Great Recession on unemployed and NEET individuals’ labour market transitions in Ireland

The impact that the Great Recession has had on countries’ labour markets has been well documented. In Ireland, the contraction in economic activity that took place resulted in the country's overall unemployment rate increasing from 4.6% in 2006 to 15% in 2012. The country's youth unemployment rate rose from 9.9% to 33% over the same time period, while the proportion of NEETs increased from 10.1% in 2006 to 18.7% in 2012. Policymakers are aware of the unemployment rates of young and prime-aged people as well as the NEETs rate. However, little is known about these groups’ profiles, whether their profiles have changed since the recession and also their labour market transition patterns pre and post the Great Recession. Given the importance of this information in the design of effective activation measures to assist unemployed and NEET individuals, this paper examines each of these issues in turn. Overall, the study found for all three groups examined that the rate of transition to employment fell dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The analysis showed that the drop in the groups’ transition rates was not due to changes in the underlying sub-group population structures but to changes in the external environment that resulted in the impact of possessing certain characteristics changing over the recession. For example, education and nationality have become more important in finding a job in Ireland over the course of the recession, while there has been a fall in the scarring impact of unemployment durations.     

School Kids and Oil Rigs: Two More Pieces of the Post‐Katrina Puzzle in New Orleans

Shortly after Hurricane Katrina's landfall in August 2005 and the reports of rampant looting of businesses in the city, we became curious about the extent of Katrina looting as compared to that after other major storms that hit New Orleans in 1947 and in 1965. Using burglary as a proxy variable for looting, we discovered that the burglary rates in the month before and the month after Katrina were significantly higher than those before and after the other two hurricanes. We then investigated the socioeconomic conditions in the city in an effort to explain these numbers. Population loss and high unemployment rates, coupled with a decline in high‐paying manufacturing jobs and an increase in low‐wage food and hotel service jobs generated severe economic inequality in the city that exacerbated the situation created by Katrina. Our current analysis of the impact of public school desegregation and the oil bust suggests that both events contributed to population loss and the increase in low‐wage jobs prior to the storm. We believe that this type of research can assist in the recovery of New Orleans by providing an understanding of the city's pre‐Katrina social and economic conditions and make clearer which post‐Katrina changes are desirable.     

Early Labor Market Experiences of Youth and Subsequent Wages

A bstract . High youth unemployment continues to be a major concern to policymakers in the United States. In view of the many studies that have documented a perpetuation of the relatively high jobless rates for youth in the postwar period whether disaggregated by age, sex , or race , the debate on the youth employment-unemployment problem has begun to focus more recently on its socioeconomic consequences. One of the overriding concerns is that early labor market unemployment experiences might carry over into later labor force performance. The cumulative effects of prolonged periods of unemployment and intermittent unemployment (i.e. , duration and spells of unemployment) on the subsequent wages of a cohort of young men are examined. Spells of unemployment experienced early in the labor market careers of the cohort tended to have an increasing effect on their later wages , while spells occurring later and the duration of unemployment then serve to lower their subsequent wages.     

Youth labour market performances in the Russian and Italian regions

The focus of this paper is on youth unemployment in Italy and Russia: in both countries, youth unemployment rates (YURs) are higher than adult (or total) ones. Despite these general trends, there are significant regional differences in YURs and above-average YUR regions tend to cluster close to each other. Moreover, a distinction between “North” and “South” regions seems appropriate for both countries. The purpose of this study is to identify key determinants of YURs in the Russian and Italian regions, for the period 2000–2009. We also search for the existence of distance spatial effects. In particular, we estimate a modified Arellano–Bond model for the regional YUR, including some explanatory and control variables (e.g. regional GDP in PPP, regional population density, regional total unemployment rate), together with year dummies and North/South dummies. The use of distance matrixes enables important analysis to be conducted on the role played by spatial effects, which turn out to be significant. Also the negative impact of the 2008–2009 crisis is statistically confirmed (at least in the case of Italy). The relevant policy implications are highlighted in the conclusions.     

Minimum Wages and Youth Unemployment: Will Britain Learn from Canada?

Norman Tebbit is spending vast sums on palliatives for youth employment. Minimum wage legislation may be responsible for nearly 40 per cent of youth unemployment in Britain. Canada suggests that unemployment must result if the labour market is prevented from accommodating population change through state-imposed rigidities which prevent changes in the price of labour.     

Volatility, growth, and welfare

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model driven by self-fulfilling expectation shocks to explain the stylized fact that the average growth rate of GDP is related negatively to volatility and positively to capacity utilization. The implied welfare gain from further stabilizing the U.S. economy is about a quarter of annual consumption, which is consistent in order of magnitude with estimates based on the empirical studies of Ramey and Ramey (1995) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004). Hence, policies designed to reduce fluctuations can generate large welfare gains because smaller fluctuations are associated with permanently higher rates of growth.