The determinants of retail petrol prices in Greece

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between retail prices of petrol, international oil prices and tax rates in Greece. We examine not only the hypothesis that retail prices act asymmetrically to crude oil price changes and the pass-through rates of tax increases, but also use the cross-sectional dimension of the data to explore whether the existence or otherwise of market power affects retail prices. Our results provide little evidence for asymmetric behaviour. However, the degree to which prices overreact to tax changes and the significance of market power across the different regions suggests that the market for petrol/diesel is not very competitive.     

Petrol prices,oil price rises and oil price falls: some evidence for the UK since 1972

This paper examines the relationship between retail petrol prices, excise duties and crude oil prices in the UK over the period 1973–1988. The existence of a stable relationship between the petrol price, level of excise duty and spot oil price is confirmed through use of the cointegration approach. Although the speed of reaction of petrol prices to changes in the crude price depends on whether crude prices are rising or falling, any asymmetry in the pricing response is virtually absent after an adjustment period of only four months.     

Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence

In this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel‐fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so‐called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negative‐ of the change in international oil prices, is inadequate for the Spanish case and the magnitude of the change in international oil prices is also relevant. For small changes in international oil prices there is neither price asymmetry nor rockets and feathers behavior in the retail markets. However, price asymmetries in line with rockets and feathers behavior in retail gasoline and gasoil markets are present when these changes exceed a certain threshold. Following Martín‐Moreno et al. (2018) we first apply an Auto‐regressive Error Correction Model and endogenously estimate the threshold triggering the rockets and feathers behaviour. A time‐varying nature for the dynamic response of retail prices to oil price shocks is revealed when we estimate the TAR‐ECM model using rolling windows. Hence, in a second stage, we use a Markov‐switching estimation of the model to test the robustness of the results given its suitability to changing environments. This study could have relevant policy implications for the Spanish gasoline and gasoil retail markets due to the ongoing debate on the existence of a rockets and feathers behavior in gasoline and gasoil retail markets between the Spanish regulatory body and the oil companies.     

The relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between crude oil and retail gasoline prices during the last 21 years and determines that, in February 1986, the relationship had drastically changed. Since that date, the results show that gasoline prices include higher profit margins, respond substantially less to changes in crude oil prices(but still within one month), and are more volatile. Also discussed are the developments in crude oil and gasoline markets that have led to the above changes.     

Price transmission and local market power: empirical evidence from the Austrian gasoline market

We analyse the impact of local market power on price margins and different dimensions of price adjustment dynamics (speed and asymmetry of price transmission) using data for a large number of individual gasoline stations in Austria. Specific attention is paid to threshold effects in price adjustment. Our results clearly suggest that the speed of price transmission between the Brent crude oil index and retail diesel prices is higher in a more competitive environment. While evidence on the relationship between local market power and asymmetries in the speed of price adjustment is mixed, our findings regarding asymmetries in price thresholds are clear: in regions where competition from neighbouring rivals is weak and/or consumers’ price elasticity of demand is low (stations located on the highway), positive thresholds significantly exceed negative ones, which corresponds to the ‘rockets and feathers phenomenon’. As expected, we observe that prices are lower in more competitive local markets.     

Using threshold cointegration to estimate asymmetric price transmission in the Swiss pork market

This paper employs threshold cointegration tests that allow for asymmetric adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium relationship to examine the relationship between producer and retail pork prices in Switzerland. The short-run adjustments are also examined with asymmetric error correction models that are compared to the conventional symmetric error correction models. The results indicate that price transmission between the producer and retail levels is asymmetric, in the sense that increases in producer prices that lead to declines in marketing margins are passed on more quickly to retail prices than decreases in producer prices that result in increases in the marketing margins.     

Asymmetric evidence of gasoline price responses in France: A Markov-switching approach

It has been documented that retail gasoline prices respond more quickly to increases in wholesale prices than they do to decreases in wholesale prices. However, there is little empirical evidence that identifies the link between the pass-through of oil prices to gasoline in different volatility regimes. Using a Markov-switching model on weekly observations of fuel prices from 1990 to 2011, we find that fuel prices respond significantly faster to increases in crude oil prices than to decreases in crude oil prices. However, when volatility is low, the transmittal of a price change from crude oil to retail fuel is higher compared to periods of high volatility. These results provide important information on the behavior of retailers. The findings of this paper therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of fuel prices and some policy implications.     

Market structure and market performance in E-commerce

We analyze the interaction between market structure and market performance and how it varies over the product cycle. To account for the potential endogeneity in this relation, we use an instrumental variable approach. We combine data from the largest Austrian online market for price comparisons with retail data on wholesale prices provided by a major hardware producer for consumer electronics. Our results show that instrumenting is important for estimating the empirical effect of competition on the markup of the price leader. One more firm in the market is associated with a reduction of the price leader׳s markup which is equivalent to competition between existing firms for an additional 3 weeks in the product life cycle. Our results support search theoretic models and contradict models of monopolistic competition. Moreover our results support the existence of price dynamics over the product cycle. They also highlight the substitutability between newly innovated and old expiring technologies and how it varies with respect to competitors׳ and own brand innovations.     

The effects of resale price maintenance laws on petrol prices and station attrition: empirical evidence from Wisconsin

The state of Wisconsin's Unfair Sales Act prevents the sale of any item below cost in order to attract business, and specifically requires petrol (gasoline) stations to mark up their prices by at least 6% over the wholesale price. While the ostensible reason for this law is to protect small, independent retailers and thus enhance competition, the evidence suggests that the primary result of this law has been to inflate the price of petrol for Wisconsin consumers and facilitate tacit collusion in retail petrol markets. Petrol prices in two major markets in the state are examined, as well as in one market outside of the state where no minimum markup is required. The data show that when the penalties for violating the Unfair Sales Act were strengthened, the average markup of retail petrol over the wholesale price increased significantly in Wisconsin without a commensurate change in the average markup in the market outside of Wisconsin. It is also found that price dispersion is significantly lower over a two-year period in the protected Wisconsin market than in the unprotected markets.     

Energy price shocks and milk price adjustments

Much previous research on energy price transmission sheds light on the relationship between oil prices and aggregate commodity prices, such as for agricultural products, or food price indexes. This letter uses data from 12 U.S. cities between 2001 and 2011 to examine how energy prices are transmitted to fluid milk products at the retail level. Results indicate the existence of an asymmetric energy pass-through (a rise is transmitted faster than a fall in prices) and that private label milk products are more insulated from energy price shocks and adjust at similar rate with national manufacturer brands.     

An investigation into the dynamic relationship between international and China’s crude oil prices

This article studies the dynamic relationship between international (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and domestic (Da Qing) crude oil prices in China using threshold cointegration method. We find evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between each pair of international and Da Qing oil prices, favouring the market integration hypothesis. We also estimate asymmetric adjustments under the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) specification in a TVECM, and the results show that adjustments to eliminate disequilibrium happen faster when oil price spread increases than when it decreases. The long-run and short-run Granger causality tests support the notion that China has influence on the international oil markets. The results imply that China should open up its domestic and imported oil markets, and also establish a well-functioning crude oil futures market, as they are essential for arbitrage and hedging strategies.     

Competition and petrol pricing in the smartphone era: Evidence from Singapore

This paper examines how pre-tax petrol and diesel prices in Singapore respond to changes in crude oil prices using an asymmetric error correction model. We pay particular attention to the effect increased use of smartphones may have had in altering the pattern of price adjustment as consumers become more informed about fuel prices and as search costs decline. The results suggest that increases in the use of smartphones and tablets have increased the estimated short-term response rate but only for the adjustment of retail prices to decreases in crude oil prices. We find no evidence of a smartphone effect for wholesale prices indicative of the different roles played by consumers in competition.     

Structural breaks,cointegration and the farm-retail price spread for lamb

This paper examines the farm—retail price spread for lamb from monthly UK data for 1979–1993. Using cointegration, it examines seasonal patterns in producer and retail prices and seeks to identify a long-run relationship between them. Results show that a long-run relationship exists, and that the direction of Granger-causality is from retail to producer prices. Lamb prices are therefore set in the retail market. Results also show that there is a structural break in the relationship in January 1990 when the price increases; this coincides exactly with a change in policy.     

Price gouging versus price reduction in retail gasoline markets during Hurricane Rita

Using extensive hand-collected retail gas prices, I show that there was no price gouging in Bryan/College Station during Hurricane Rita. Instead, the retail price markup dropped by twelve cents during the hurricane, despite most stations running out of gas.     

Testing for Temporal Asymmetry in the Price‐Volume Relationship

This paper presents some evidence for the presence of temporal asymmetry in the price-volume relationship in the crude oil futures market. By using threshold models we show that there is bidirectional causality between volume and prices, whereas the conventional model that assumes symmetry can only detect unidirectional causality. The results also show that the price-volume relationship is asymmetric, in the sense that negative price and volume changes have stronger effects (on each other) than positive changes. Some explanations for asymmetry in the price-volume relationship are suggested.     

Multi‐product exporters,variable markups and exchange rate fluctuations

In this paper we investigate how firms adjust markups across products in response to fluctuations in the real exchange rate. We estimate markups at the market–product–plant level using detailed panel production and cost data from Mexican manufacturing between 1994 and 2007. Exploiting variation in the real exchange rate in the aftermath of the peso crisis in December 1994, we provide robust empirical evidence that plants increase their markups and producer prices in response to a real depreciation and that this increase is greater for products with higher productivity. Thus, we provide direct evidence for the theoretical mechanism of variable markup response behind incomplete and heterogeneous exchange rate pass‐through on producer prices. Our empirical methodology allows us to decompose the producer price response to exchange rate shocks into a markup and a marginal cost component using our markup estimates. Using these estimates, we establish that marginal cost at the product–plant level increases more in response to real exchange rate depreciation if the plant has higher share of imported inputs.     

A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence

This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and US dollar exchange rates using wavelet multi-resolution analysis. We characterized the oil price–exchange rate relationship for different timescales in an attempt to disentangle the possible existence of contagion and interdependence during the global financial crisis and analyze possible lead and lag effects. For crude oil prices and a range of currencies, we show that oil prices and exchange rates were not dependent in the pre-crisis period; however, we did find evidence of contagion and negative dependence after the onset of the crisis. Additionally, we found that oil prices led exchange rates and vice versa in the crisis period but not in the pre-crisis period. These findings have important implications for risk management, monetary policies to control oil inflationary pressures and fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries.     

Price Dynamics in Repeat-Purchase Markets*

A retail market in which customers repeat purchase is modelled. When customer movement between firms is sluggish, price overshooting characterizes firms' optimal response to demand or cost shocks. Thus retail prices would be predicted to be more variable than wholesale prices, a prediction at variance with empirical evidence. Uncertainty in demand and customer imperfect information are introduced into the model to attempt to reconcile this inconsistency between theory and evidence. The introduction of demand uncertainty actually increases the magnitude of price overshooting. By contrast, the introduction of imperfect customer information reduces the variability in retail prices.     

The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms

This paper is concerned with the interaction between price and inventory decisions in retailing firms and its implications for the dynamics of markups and the existence of sales promotions. We consider a model where a monopolistically competitive retailer decides price and inventories, and assumes lump-sum costs when placing orders or changing nominal prices. In this model, the existence of stockout probabilities and fixed ordering costs generate a cyclical price behaviour characterized by long periods without nominal price changes and short periods with very low prices ( i.e. sales promotions). We estimate this model using a unique longitudinal dataset with information about retail and wholesale prices, inventories, orders, and sales for several brands in a supermarket chain. Based on the estimated model we perform several counterfactual experiments that show the important role that inventories and fixed ordering costs play in the dynamics of retail prices and the frequency of sales promotions in this dataset.