Production location and random input price

The purpose of this paper is to develop systematically the theory of plant location for a competitive firm facing random input price. It will be shown that the impact of input price uncertainty on the firm's optimum location depend crucially upon (i) the firm's attitude toward risk, (ii) the characteristics of the production function, (iii) the structure of transport costs on inputs and output, and (iv) the type of input usages. Moreover, and more importantly, some conclusions obtained by prior studies on location theory in a certainty world can also be shown to be special cases of our more general results, but some are not justifiable in a world with random input price.     

Monopsony and the production-location decision of the firm

This paper incorporates monopsony power in one of the input markets within the context of the Weber-Moses triangular framework and examines the effect of an increase in monopsony power on the production-location decision of the firm. In particular, this paper shows that the optimum location of the firm is independent of monopsony power if the production funstion is homogeneous of degree one. However, if the production function is not homogeneous of degree one, the firm possessing monopsony power will have an incentive to move its location away from the monopsonized input market towards other markets under certain reasonable assumptions. Finally, some important policy implications are generated from the analysis.     

From Hot Cakes to Cold Feet: A Contingent Perspective on the Relationship between Market Uncertainty and Status Homophily in the Formation of Alliances

In this study, we reconsider the classical positive association between the level of market uncertainty and an organization's propensity to form ties with organizations of similar status. Although prior research argues that the greater the uncertainty, the higher the level of status homophily, we suggest that this relationship is contingent upon framing that affects positive or negative valence towards uncertainty. In an up market, organizations tend to frame uncertainty as upside risk, and thus will subsequently favour explorative uncertainty‐mitigation devices; whereas, in a down market, organizations primarily frame uncertainty as downward risk, and thus will rely on more conservative uncertainty‐mitigation mechanisms. We therefore predict that a greater number of status‐heterophilous ties will be formed in an up market than in a down market. We discuss the implications of our results for status theory and more broadly for research on strategic decision making under uncertainty.     

Uncertain outlays in time-to-build problems

In this paper we analyze investment projects in which there is uncertainty in the total investment cost in addition to uncertainty in the completed project value. We deal with an uncertain time-to-build. Uncertainties in investment cost are quite common in long-term, large-scale, path-breaking undertakings such as some R&D projects. We find that the inclusion of uncertainty in investment cost tends to mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty of completed project value. The implications of the results are significant. First, when uncertainty of investment cost is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment will result; and second, the existence of uncertainty in investment cost will cause long-term projects to require larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment should occur.     

Agency costs and the discount rate for public sector enterprises

In this paper, we examine the implications of agency costs on the discount rate for public sector enterprises (PSEs); we do this in the framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. With the addition of agency costs, the discount rate for Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) under uncertainty becomes the risk-adjusted discount rate plus a premium for agency costs; under certainty, the discount rate for PSEs is shown to be the risk-free rate plus a premium for agency costs. Use of a discount rate by PSEs without adjusting for agency costs both under certainty and uncertainty, will lead to sub-optimal capital investment decisions by PSEs.     

Enhancing effects of manufacturing flexibility through operational absorptive capacity and operational ambidexterity

A large body of research investigates how manufacturing flexibility in uncertain environments leads to firm performance, with mixed results. The mixed findings could be due to differences across firms in terms of the capabilities to acquire, assimilate, and transform knowledge and to simultaneously pursue both the exploitation of existing operational capabilities and the exploration for new operational capabilities. Building on the literature that suggests that manufacturing flexibility mediates the relationship between environmental uncertainty and firm performance, we explore the applicability of two organizational learning contingencies to the operations environment: operational absorptive capability and operational ambidexterity. Absorptive capacity enables the recognition and assimilation of new knowledge. Ambidexterity determines whether this knowledge will be applied for both exploration and exploitation. Using a sample of 852 manufacturing firms, we find that environmental uncertainty affects firm performance directly and indirectly through manufacturing flexibility. Furthermore, both operational absorptive capacity and operational ambidexterity moderate the relationship between environmental uncertainty and manufacturing flexibility and the relationship between manufacturing flexibility and firm performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise value: Evidence from Chinese listed enterprises

In this paper, we investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) influences enterprise value based on China’s EPU index and financial data on A-share listed enterprises from 2004 to 2018. Our empirical results show that uncertainty in economic policy has a significant restraining effect on enterprise value in general and that the degree of the impact is closely related to enterprise characteristics, including financial leverage, scale, R&D intensity, the degree of marketization, ownership, and location. More precisely, an increase in financial leverage and scale can mitigate the restraining effect of EPU on enterprise value, while an increase in R&D intensity and marketization degree will exacerbate the restraining effect. In addition, non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and firms located in first-tier cities are more vulnerable to rising EPU. The evidence indicates that policymakers should pay attention to stability in macroeconomic policy and micro-enterprises should be concerned about the impact of uncertainty in economic policy, plan ahead, and take precautions.     

Applicability of the M5 to Forecasting at Walmart

The M5 Forecasting Competition, the fifth in the series of forecasting competitions organized by Professor Spyros Makridakis and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center at the University of Nicosia, was an extremely successful event. This competition focused on both the accuracy and uncertainty of forecasts and leveraged actual historical sales data provided by Walmart. This has led to the M5 being a unique competition that closely parallels the difficulties and challenges associated with industrial applications of forecasting. Like its precursor the M4, many interesting ideas came from the results of the M5 competition which will continue to push forecasting in new directions.In this article we discuss four topics around the practitioners view of the application of the competition and its results to the actual problems we face. First, we examine the data provided and how it relates to common difficulties practitioners must overcome. Secondly, we review the relevance of the accuracy and uncertainty metrics associated with the competition. Third, we discuss the leading solutions and their implications to forecasting at a company like Walmart. We then close with thoughts about a future M6 competition and further enhancements that can be explored.     

State-contingent representations, strategic market games and systematic uncertainty

In this paper it is argued, in the context of a Walrasian market game, that the statecontingent representation of uncertainty is not compatible with the existence of what we call systematic uncertainty, that is, uncertainty that cannot be removed whatever the decision maker's conduct and past experience. The implications of this conclusion from the point of view of the foundations of decision theory are also drawn.     

Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain

Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear. We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under this uncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternative von Neumann Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian, Rawlsian, and an extension of the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy (without production), where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation. Second, a productive economy with education and capital, where it turns out that the recommendations of the two EOs are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, then we prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possible disappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implications for intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming.     

The Future of Japanese Manufacturing in the UK

The expansion of Japanese FDI into the UK manufacturing sector during the 1980s and early 1990s gave rise to the debate on the Japanization of British industry. The paper argues that this debate was constructed from a Western perspective. It did not locate the strategies and structures of Japanese subsidiaries within the broader context of how Japanese multinational corporations were evolving in this period. The necessity to look at these issues from a more global perspective is reinforced by the changes which have occurred since the mid 1990s in the environment for Japanese multinationals. The global economy offers more choices to firms about their location as well as facing them with a more competitive environment. In the Japanese case, this is leading to a growing differentiation between standardized mass production (which can be located in Asia and Eastern Europe) and science–led sectors of industrial production (which necessitate location near to centres of research and development expertise in the USA and Europe). This means that Japanese firms are reconsidering the strategy and structure of their subsidiaries in the UK. Standardized mass production will only survive in the UK as long as costs can be pushed further down and productivity increased, both of which are difficult conditions to meet given possibilities elsewhere in the world for cheap mass production. The growing area of investment will be in science–based manufacturing, though here the UK will be competing against the USA and Germany for Japanese investment. Here, however, the organizational and management characteristics of Japanese subsidiaries will make the necessary connections with local managers and local networks of expertise difficult to achieve. Thus Japanese subsidiaries in the UK are in a period of prolonged uncertainty about their role in the future. These changes open up the necessity for a new agenda of research which goes beyond the Japanization approach and is concerned with the organization and management of Japanese multinationals in an era of global competition.     

Managing Dispersed Knowledge: Organizational Problems,Managerial Strategies,and Their Effectiveness

While there has been much progress in understanding organizational knowledge and knowledge management practices, some questions still remain unresolved. This paper argues that at least one important driver of knowledge‐related organizational problems has been rather neglected so far: that is, the dispersed nature of organizational knowledge. The paper analyses the organizational problems and managerial responses arising from dispersed knowledge. It identifies three drivers by which the dispersedness of knowledge leads to management problems: namely, it creates large numbers, asymmetries, and uncertainty. A number of managerial strategies for dealing with the different components of the problems created by the dispersedness of knowledge are identified and their effectiveness analysed, thereby informing managers as to how best to deal with dispersed knowledge. The analysis of uncertainty‐related implications of dispersed knowledge uncovers an overlooked distinction that is helpful for understanding dispersed knowledge and its managerial implications. This is the distinction between uncertainty and ambiguity, i.e. a strong form of uncertainty that cannot be remedied by the standard strategy of increasing the information available.     

Endogenous R&D spillovers and locational choice with discriminatory pricing

We present a model of spatial price discrimination where R&D spillovers are endogenous as they depend on firms' location. We establish that both the distance between locations and R&D efforts are an increasing function of the transportation cost coefficient and show that there is a continuum of cases where firms will choose an intermediate location. The managerial implications from the model are discussed using examples of marketing behavior by Internet retailers. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of spatial scale in the timing of uncertain environmental policy

The spatial scale of an environmental problem is dictated by boundaries. Physical boundaries limit the extent of impacts while the scale of decision making creates perceived boundaries beyond which impacts are ignored by decision makers. While it is well understood that uncertainty and irreversibility will alter policy decisions aimed at alleviating environmental impacts, the effect of spatial scales, both physical and perceived, is less understood. When spatial scale is included in a real options model of environmental policy adoption results indicate that the importance and influence of spatial considerations depends on the level of uncertainty, stringency of the proposed policy and flexibility of the policy decision. Recognizing spatial scale may force policy adoption to take place within a window of current damage. When spatial scale is small or uncertainty high, this window for policy adoption can close precluding policy adoption entirely. This undermines well-known results demonstrating that changes in uncertainty will only alter the timing of policy adoption. In other instances, the policy adoption window remains open but the option value increases faster than the benefits of the policy creating a scenario where it is always preferable to delay. Here the inclusion of an option value can prevent adoption of policies that would be adopted according to traditional cost-benefit analysis. In general policy decisions will be most affected by spatial considerations when the spatial scale is small, damage is spreading fast, and the uncertainty in damage spread is high.     

The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty,investor sentiment,and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements

We use daily data of the Google search engine volume index (GSVI) to capture the pandemic uncertainty and examine its effect on stock market activity (return, volatility, and illiquidity) of major world economies while controlling the effect of the Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) sentiment index. We use a time–frequency based wavelet approach comprising wavelet coherence and phase difference for our empirical assessment. During the early spread of the COVID-19, our results suggest that pandemic uncertainty, and FEARS sentiment strongly co-move, and increased pandemic uncertainty leads to pessimistic investor sentiment. Furthermore, our partial wavelet analysis results indicate a synchronization relationship between pandemic uncertainty and stock market activities across G7 countries and the world market. Our results are robust to the inclusion of alternative pandemic fear measure in the form of equity market volatility infectious disease tracker. The pandemic uncertainty and associated sentiment implications could be one plausible reason for increased volatility and illiquidity in the market, and hence, policymakers should look upon this issue for the financial market stability perspective.     

Services cultural alignment in offshoring: The impact of cultural dimensions on offshoring location choices

Empirical research on the growing wave of services offshoring has examined the impact of several key factors such as wages and personnel quality on firm choices of offshore locations. However, examinations of culture in services offshoring to date have largely been confined to the relatively coarse concept of aggregate cultural differences between the home and host countries. We propose that specific cultural attributes are more closely aligned with successful service provision. We empirically examine our theoretical development of service cultural alignment and investigate the impact of cultural dimensions on the location of service offshoring projects. In addition, we examine whether Western and Asian firms have different cultural preferences in terms of the location of services offshoring projects. We find that host countries with lower levels of Hofstede's uncertainty avoidance as well as higher levels of individualism and power distance are able to attract greater numbers of service offshoring projects, even after controlling for macroeconomic, linguistic, and risk-related factors. We did not find that Western and Asian firms have different cultural preferences in this regard. We discuss implications of the findings with respect to theory, managerial practice, and governmental policy.     

Price uncertainty and the optimal production-location decision

The integrated production-location decision involves the simultaneous choice of facility design (input mix) and plant location. This paper generalizes earlier work by incorporating price uncertainty and risk preferences into the problem. Properties of the optimal solution are characterized, and detailed comparative statics analyses are performed to identify the effects of price uncertainty, risk preferences, and production structure on the optimal solution. These results, which illuminate the economic mechanics and parametric sensitivity of such decisions, can be useful for developing and evaluating national and local public policies. An example of their potential use is given.     

Economic uncertainty,oil prices,hedging and U.S. stock returns of the airline industry

This paper examines the impacts of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks on stock returns of U.S. airlines using both industry and firm-level data. Our empirical approach considers a structural vector-autoregressive model with variables recognized to be important for airline returns including jet fuel price volatility. Empirical results confirm that oil price increase, economic uncertainty and jet fuel price volatility have significantly adverse effect on real stock returns of airlines both at industry and at firm level. In addition, we also find that hedging future fuel purchase has statistically positive impact on the smaller airlines. Our results suggest policy implications for practitioners, managers of airline industry and commodity investors.     

基于改进蚁群算法的应急物流中心选址问题研究

针对灾情等级不确定情况下应急物流的特点,本文利用不确定理论的相关方法,就应急物流中转站选址问题进行了相关分析和研究,构建了适应于应急物流特性的中心选址模型。最后进行仿真实例,利用改进蚁群算法求解模型,并得出相关结论。     

The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan

Economic uncertainty has only recently begun to appear in research on the determinants of fertility. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate how economic uncertainty affects the fertility rate in Taiwan. Official county-level panel data from 1998 to 2016 for 20 counties are utilized in DIFF-GMM and SYS-GMM models in dynamic panel regression estimation. The major finding of this study is that higher volatility of household disposable income will reduce the fertility rate. The empirical results support the proposition that economic uncertainty might be an important determinant of fertility decisions, explaining the decline in fertility in Taiwan.