我国燃油期货市场成交量和持仓量对价格波动的影响研究

研究燃油期货市场成交量、持仓量对价格波动的影响,有利于降低燃油期货市场风险。建立EGARCH-t模型,分别考察成交量、持仓量以及同进考察成交量与持仓量对我国燃油期货价格波动的影响。研究结果显示：在分别考察成交量和持仓量时,当期成交量对价格波动方差具有比较明显的影响,滞后成交量与持仓量对价格波动方差都没有很显著的影响。在同时考察成交量和持仓量对价格波动方差的影响时,有A〈B（若当日成交量和持仓量同时增加,则令当日价格波动幅度大小为A;若当日成交量减少（或不变）,则令当日价格波动幅度大小为B）成立。同时,燃油期货市场的滞后成交量和持仓量对价格波动方差的影响不明显,说明我国燃油期货市场运行效率较好。     

上海黄金期货市场波动性实证分析

本文首先对上海黄金期货市场进行了分析,论证其收益率时间序列具有尖峰肥尾、波动率集聚特征以及存在持续的A R C H效应。同时利用EGARCH(1,1)模型对黄金期货的收益率波动进行分析,考察了交易量、持仓量与收益波动的动态关系,以及加入滞后一期交易量和持仓量对收益波动的影响。实证结果显示:上海期货市场不存在杆杠效应和高风险高回报特征;黄金期货交易量和收益率波动没有显著的关系,但是同期和滞后一期持仓量对收益率波动有显著的负向影响。     

台湾股指期货收益波动性与交易量、持仓量考察

采用VAR模型和扩展的GARCH族模型,研究台湾股指期货收益波动性、交易量和持仓量三者之间的动态关系,同时检验交易量和持仓量在GARCH模型中的预测作用。结果表明:台湾股指期货交易量对收益波动性的直接影响存在着滞后效应,波动性间接地依赖于持仓量的变化,交易量和持仓量之间存在明显的双向因果关系。交易量和持仓量的引入能否有助于基础GARCH模型预测收益波动性取决于样本观测期的选择,从均方误差来看三个最好的非样本收益波动性预测模型都是扩展后的GARCH变形模型。     

金融周期波动下股指期货对现货市场价格波动的影响

期货合约引入对现货市场波动性的影响一直备受争议,且现阶段金融周期与宏观经济的联系也备受关注。故本文以沪深300股票指数及对应的期货合约为研究对象,通过构建EGARCH模型,探究股指期货的引入能否有效抑制现货市场价格波动,以及在金融周期波动下,股指期货对现货市场的影响,并从期货市场参与者的角度解释股指期货对于现货市场的作用机理。最终得出结论:沪深300股指期货合约可以有效抑制现货市场的价格波动,而在金融周期的剧烈波动下,股指期货的引入会反向加大现货市场的价格波动;股指期货市场的套期保值交易可以有效抑制现货市场价格波动,而投机交易则增大现货市场的不稳定性,并且在金融周期波动较低时,期货市场交易对现货市场价格波动性的影响更为显著。     

我国豆油期货市场价格波动的效应研究

豆油与人们的日常生活息息相关,其价格波动直接影响到人们的生活。本文基于2006年1月至2012年10月大连商品交易所豆油期货市场日收盘价数据,运用GARCH模型对豆油期货价格波动进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:我国豆油期货价格收益率具有ARCH效应,豆油期货市场当期价格波动显著受前期影响,且影响时间较长。基于此,本文提出相关政策建议。     

我国黄金期货和现货市场价格波动的实证研究

期货市场作为在现货市场上高度组织化和规范化而形成的市场形式,其价格发现的功能起到促进现货市场价格合理完善的作用.2008年1月9号上海期货交易所推出黄金期货合约以来,黄金期货市场已经运行了四年多的时间.本文通过对我国黄金期货市场和现货市场的价格发现机制进行实证检验,分析我国黄金期货市场是否起到对黄金现货市场价格引导和发现的作用.实证结果表明:黄金期货价格和黄金现货价格存在长期协整关系.在短期,黄金现货价格变动对黄金期货价格变动的影响强于期货价格变动对现货价格的影响.我国黄金期货市场运行效率还有待提高,其价格发现功能有待进一步改善.     

上海黄金期货波动率的实证分析——基于夜盘交易推出对黄金期货价格影响机制研究

2008年国内黄金期货市场就已正式建立,但是长期面临交易量低迷、市场不活跃的问题。直到2013年7月上海期货交易所推出黄金期货夜盘交易,才真正连通了国内外黄金市场,有效缩减了隔夜"跳空"价差,降低了投资者的风险暴露。本文运用EGARCH模型研究了国内黄金期货价格的波动率特征,特别研究了夜盘交易推出对黄金期货价格波动率的影响。实证结果显示,夜盘连续交易的推出显著增加了市场活跃度,降低了长期平均波动率水平。     

我国黄金期货市场套期保值功能的实证研究

本文选取2008年1月9日至2010年12月31日之间期货价格和现货价格数据,运用传统回归模型(OLS)、双变量向量自回归模型(B-VAR)、误差修正套期保值模型(ECM)、误差修正GARCH模型(EC-GARCH)对样本数据进行平稳性和协整关系检验,在估计最小风险套期保值比率的基础上发现:(1)我国黄金期货市场运行三年多来,通过黄金期货市场进行套期保值是有效的,可以较为明显地降低参与者面临的价格波动风险;(2)在具体进行套期保值操作时,应该根据套期保值时限长短的不同和预期效果的差异,采用不同的模型来合理确定自身的套期保值比例。在此基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

An Empirical Study on China＇s Gold Futures Market Hedging Performance

本文选取2008年1月9日至2010年12月31日之间期货价格和现货价格数据,运用传统回归模型（OLS）、双变量向量自回归模型（B—VAR）、误差修正套期保值模型（ECM）、误差修正GARCH模型（EC—GARCH）对样本数据进行平稳性和协整关系检验,在估计最小风险套期保值比率的基础上发现：（1）我国黄金期货市场运行三年多来,通过黄金期货市场进行套期保值是有效的,可以较为明显地降低参与者面临的价格波动风险;（2）在具体进行套期保值操作时,应该根据套期保值时限长短的不同和预期效果的差异,采用不同的模型来合理确定自身的套期保值比例。在此基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

涨跌停板制度对我国期货市场的影响——基于上海期货交易所的实证研究

文章通过检验在出现涨跌停板之后一个交易日的期货价格、波动性、交易量及持仓量的变化情况,研究了涨跌停板制度对上海期货交易所期货价格变动、波动性及流动性的影响。研究结果显示:对不同的期货品种,涨跌停板制度的影响存在一定的差异,但总体而言,涨跌停板制度并没有起到防范价格过度反应和降低市场波动性的作用,相反,在一定程度上延缓了期货市场价格发现功能的发挥,增大了市场的波动性。并且对期货市场还是存在一定的"流动性干扰效应"。因此,建议放宽上海期货交易所涨跌停板的幅度,甚至可以考虑取消涨跌停板的限制。     

从国际期货定价机制变化看我国期货市场风险管理

在国际金融危机持续的背景下,以石油、黄金为代表的商品价格出现了剧烈震荡,国际期货市场定价机制的变化及期货交易规则的高杠杆效应也使得市场风险被明显放大。面对世界复杂的经济环境及国内通胀压力,如何增强我国期货市场抗风险能力,保护投资者正当利益成为社会各界普遍关心的问题。     

中美玉米期货市场功能效率比较

价格发现与套期保值是期货市场的基本功能,能够反映期货市场的运行效率。通过对比中美贸易摩擦前后期货市场的价格发现和套期保值功能,分析中美玉米期货市场效率间的差距,探究我国玉米期货市场运行效率低的原因。利用格兰杰(Granger)因果分析、协整检验、分位信息份额模型、套期保值比率及绩效分析方法,定量对中美两国2013—2019年玉米期货及现货的数据进行分析,结果表明,中国玉米期货市场存在较强的价格发现功能,但套期保值绩效不佳。使用前沿分位信息份额模型和滚动格兰杰因果法分析中美两国期现货市场动态关系的区别,发现中国仅存期货市场对现货市场的单向引导,而美国在中美贸易摩擦前表现为玉米期现货市场具有相近的引导能力,套期保值效率较高,中美贸易摩擦增强了其现货市场对期货市场的引导能力,降低了期货市场运行效率。从期现货市场双向引导关系视角来看,中国玉米期货市场效率低的原因主要是现货市场的信息不完全、发展不完善,期现货市场缺少长期稳定的双向引导关系抑制了期货市场功能发挥。中国应全面加强期货市场建设,提升期货市场定价效率,推动农产品期货市场快速健康发展。     

Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures

We show how trading protocols impede the price discovery process in single stock futures as implicit trade costs outweigh explicit costs. Despite the trade volume dominance, trade costs advantage and leverage efficiency in futures markets, single stock futures account for only 35% of the price discovery vis-á-vis the spot market. Futures market's informational efficiency is adversely affected by market frictions in the form of marketwide position limits, minimum contract values, and margin requirements.     

Causality in the VIX futures market

This study examines the price‐discovery function and information efficiency of a fast growing volatility futures market: the Chicago Board of Option Exchange VIX futures market. A linear Engle–Granger cointegration test with an error correction mechanism (ECM) shows that during the full sample period, VIX futures prices lead spot VIX index, which implies that the VIX futures market has some price‐discovery function. But a modified Baek and Brock nonlinear Granger test detects bi‐directional causality between VIX and VIX futures prices, suggesting that both spot and futures prices react simultaneously to new information. Quarter‐by‐quarter investigations show that, on average, the estimated parameters are not significantly different from zero, thus providing further evidence supporting information efficiency in the VIX futures market. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

我国钢材期货对现货价格波动的影响

我国钢材期货和现货价格波动存在正相关性,即使价格短期出现分歧,但从长期来看也会趋向于一致;钢材期货表现出了一定的价格发现功能;上一期现货价格的波动会引起当期期货价格和现货价格的同方向变动,且影响远大于同期期货价格波动和前一期期货价格和现货价格波动的影响;钢材期货的上市不仅不是钢材现货市场价格大幅波动的原因,而且在一定程度上对现货价格的大幅波动起到了抑制作用.钢材期货的推出,无论是对涉钢企业规避价格风险,还是对钢材市场平稳发展及稳定钢材价格,都具有一定的积极意义.     

The price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality

This study examines the price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality by analyzing the continuous trading session dataset of KOSPI 200 futures, including the opening and closing periods. For this purpose, the study analyzes the futures dataset that contains information on transaction times, trade directions, order sizes, and the types of investors initiating the transactions. The results suggest several novel findings. First, a substantial portion of the price impact of futures trades is persistent, indicating the presence of informed trading in the futures market. Second, informed trading is concentrated in the opening period and liquidity trading is concentrated in the closing period of the continuous trading session. Third, small trades usually have a greater price impact than large ones, supporting the existence of stealth trading by futures traders. Fourth, trades by institutional investors have a greater price impact than those by individuals, suggesting that institutional investors are better informed and/or more sophisticated than individual investors in the futures market.     

The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets

This paper investigates whether market quality, uncertainty, investor sentiment and attention, and macroeconomic news affect bitcoin price discovery in spot and futures markets. Over the period December 2017–March 2019, we find significant time variation in the contribution to price discovery of the two markets. Increases in price discovery are mainly driven by relative trading costs and volume, and uncertainty to a lesser extent. Additionally, medium-sized trades contain most information in terms of price discovery. Finally, higher news-based bitcoin sentiment increases the informational role of the futures market, while attention and macroeconomic news have no impact on price discovery.     

Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification

This paper uses transaction data to examine hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange; the Fish Pool salmon futures exchange in Norway. The paper utilizes data on firm-level exporter/importer transaction prices to quantify firm-level futures hedging efficiency. This allows us to address heterogeneity in hedging efficiency and basis risk at the firm level. The main result of this paper shows that larger firms with greater trade partner diversification have lower basis risk. Such firms align their internal transaction price closer to the common spot price in the market, which encourages greater futures market participation. Results are discussed in light of recent declines in participation in the salmon futures exchange.     

Price impact asymmetry of futures trades: Trade direction and trade size

By analyzing the high-quality intraday transaction dataset of KOSPI200 index futures contracts, one of the most actively traded index futures products in the world, this study examines price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated trades and the difference in information content across the size of trades. To measure the permanent price impact incurred by each futures trade, which can be translated into the quality of information content of each trade, we use a modified version of the MRR model (Madhavan et al., 1997), which is appropriate for gauging the price impact and information content as well as analyzing the intraday price discovery issues that arise in purely order-driven markets.Consistent with the empirical results of previous studies on market microstructure issues in Korea's index derivatives market (i.e., KOSPI200 index futures and options market), we find that large trades generally incur greater permanent price impacts than small trades. This indicates that large trades generally have greater information content than the smaller ones. However, in contrast to the majority of empirical studies in this area, which have reported that buy trades are more informative than sell trades in global financial markets, we find that the permanent price impact of seller-initiated trades is clearly and substantially larger than that of buyer-initiated trades in the KOSPI200 futures market. This indicates that sell trades are more informed than buy trades in the index futures market, where informed investors can freely submit sell orders without any restrictions. The greater information content of sell trades is also apparent when trades are classified by their size. These results are quite remarkable considering that the sample period of this study (2003–2006) corresponds to a recovery period, during which the underlying stock index price and the futures price continued to increase.