The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration

How did the large asylum-seeker inflow to Germany in 2015 affect concerns about immigration? Using individual-level panel data for the years 2012–2018 and a policy that allocates asylum-seekers to districts, I identify the effect of exposure to asylum-seekers. In line with the contact hypothesis, living in a high refugee migration district reduced concerns about immigration by 3 pp. Alternatively, a 1 pp. increase in the share of asylum-seekers in the population reduced these concerns by 3.4 pp. The effect appears larger for right-leaning respondents and is driven by districts that do not host a large reception centre. However, the overall trend indicates that after 2015 concerns about immigration increased by about 21 pp. and support for extreme right-wing parties by about 1.7 pp. These trends show considerable heterogeneity for different demographic groups.     

The impact of welfare benefits on natives' and immigrants' attitudes toward immigration

We investigate the effect of the relative welfare dependence of immigrants on attitudes toward further immigration of different groups of the population in a pooled cross-section of 24 European countries for the 2004–2010 period. Explicitly controlling for the dependence of immigrants and natives on welfare benefits we find that in countries with higher take-up rates among immigrants relative to natives pro-immigration attitudes, very robustly, increase more strongly with increasing educational attainment and, slightly less robustly, decline more strongly with the age of natives. Within the group of immigrants, by contrast, the impact of age on pro-immigration attitudes is more favorable with increasing relative benefit take-up of immigrants.     

Public opinion on immigration in Europe: Preference and salience

Studies of public opinion on immigration have focused on the responses to survey questions about whether the individual would prefer more or less immigration (preference) but not on his or her assessment of its importance as a policy issue (salience). Analysis of data from the European Social Survey and Eurobarometer indicates that preference and salience are associated with different individual-level characteristics. At the national level they move differently over time and in response to different macro-level variables. Both dimensions of opinion must be taken into account as influences on the formation of immigration policy.     

The effect of mode 4 liberalization on illegal immigration

This paper aims to assess the impacts of the temporary movement of workers on the illegal immigration. It uses a discrete time, forward-looking model with heterogeneous agents, in order to describe the decision made by illegal migrants from developing countries. Illegal migrants are supposed to accede only to the informal sector and are price takers, as they have no negotiating power. Taking into account these specifications, the theoretical model is solved analytically and illustrated numerically. It demonstrates that under some conditions, the liberalization of temporary movement of workers could lead to a decrease of illegal migration.     

The determinants of individual attitudes towards immigration

The paper formulates hypotheses and reports on individual attitudes towards immigration based on data for 24 countries on socioeconomic position, sociodemographic characteristics and political attitudes. The results are consistent with the predictions of factor proportions trade theory, but also suggest that a range of other economic and cultural factors influence attitudes towards immigration.     

A permanent effect of temporary immigration on economic growth

Immigration can help to lessen the burden of ageing for the welfare states of most Western economies. To show this, we develop a decomposition framework for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita which deals with the impact of both ageing and immigration on economic growth. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the Netherlands during 1973 to 2009, we demonstrate the empirical relevance of some crucial interactions between elements of that decomposition. The conclusion is that even temporary immigration may help to alleviate the ageing problem through a positive long-term contribution to employment, wages and GDP per capita, as long as the immigrants are able to participate in the labour force in tandem with the native population. Unfavourable short-term effects should be avoided through a gradual phasing in of immigration policies.     

Comments on John Roemer’s first welfare theorem of market socialism*

Abstract

In this comment on John Roemer’s “theory of cooperation with an application to market socialism”, I extend Roemer’s first welfare theorem of market socialism in two directions. First, I prove a version of the theorem that deals with non-linear taxation. Second, I offer a connection between the theorem and welfare equality. I then argue that the models and questions that Roemer contribute to bring to welfare economics raise questions that go much beyond the research on socialist ethics. In particular, I introduce a positive model of moral behavior that yields different predictions from Roemer’s Kantian model. I conclude that individual morality should become a central concern of welfare economists.     

谈国家审计、民间审计、内部审计之区别

本文分内外、外外两个层次分析了国家审计、民间审计和内部审计的区别。从审计的性质、审计的独立性、审计方式等十一个方面阐述了内部审计和外部审计的区别；国家审计和民间审计的区别则表现在审计主体和审计权限等四个方面的不同。最后得出内部审计与国家审计、民间审计都是我国完整的审计组织体系的重要组成部分，三者特征突出、自成体系、各司其职，又相互联系、相互补充。共同构成了我国完善的审计监督体系。     

国际贸易投资中的签证壁垒辨析

签证壁垒不属于非关税壁垒,而是服务贸易壁垒中自然人流动壁垒是一种间接但明显的歧视性服务贸易壁垒.由于国家安全、经济利益、非法移民和法律差异等因素,签证壁垒不仅存在,而且不会消除.签证壁垒中的一些偏颇观点需要澄清,以免在寻找解决办法时陷入误区.     

Labor market dynamics in urban China and the role of the state sector

This paper studies the effect of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the dynamics of the Chinese urban labor market. Using longitudinally matched monthly panel data, we document very low labor force dynamics in the state sector, which leads to a high long-term unemployment rate. We develop and estimate an equilibrium search and matching model with three differences between the state and non-state sectors: labor productivity, labor adjustment cost, and workers’ bargaining power. Counterfactual analysis shows that, among the three channels, reducing the bargaining power of state sector workers is most effective in reducing unemployment duration and unemployment rate.     

The subversive nature of inequality: Subjective inequality perceptions and attitudes to social inequality

This paper shows that higher levels of perceived wage inequality are associated with a weaker (stronger) belief into meritocratic (non-meritocratic) principles as being important in determining individual wages. This finding is further corroborated using various complementary measures of individuals’ perception of the chances and risks associated with an unequal distribution of economic resources, such as their perception of the chances of upward mobility. I finally show that those individuals perceiving a high level of wage inequality also tend to be more supportive of redistributive policies and progressive taxation. Taken together, these findings suggest that high levels of perceived wage inequality do have the potential to undermine the legitimacy of market outcomes.     

On the effects of income volatility on income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S.

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of income volatility on income inequality in the U.S. used state level data and a balanced panel model to conclude that increased volatility worsens income distribution in the U.S., which implies that decreased volatility should reduce inequality. We use the same data set that is extended by nine years and revisit the issue using linear and nonlinear ARDL time-series models to show that the above conclusion does not hold in every state. While we discover short-run asymmetric effects of income volatility on a measure of inequality in most states, they translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in 16 states. Both increased volatility and decreased volatility are found to have unequalizing effects on income distribution in these states.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

The impact of immigrant concentration in schools on grade retention in Spain: a difference-in-differences approach

Since the late 1990s, Spain has played host to a sizeable flow of immigrants who have been absorbed into the compulsory stage of the education system. In this article, our aim is to assess the impact of that exogenous increase in the number of immigrant students from 2003 to 2009 on grade retention using Spanish data from PISA 2003 and 2009. For this purpose, we use the difference-in-differences method as a dose treatment capable of detecting whether the immigrant concentration has had a significant effect on student performance. Our results evidenced that their arrival does not on average decrease school promotion rates with respect to 2003 and is even beneficial to native students. However, although the concentration of immigrant students at the same school does have a negative impact on immigrant students generating more grade retention, native students are unaffected until concentrations of immigrant students is above 15%.     

The dynamic impact of immigration on natives' labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel

This paper studies the short and medium run impact of highly skilled immigrants from the Former Soviet Union to Israel on natives' wages and employment. If immigrants are relatively good substitutes for native workers, the impact of immigration will be largest immediately upon the immigrants' arrival, and may become smaller as the labor market adjusts to the supply shock. Conversely, if immigrants upon arrival are poor substitutes for natives, the initial effect of immigration is small, and increases over time as immigrants acquire local labor market skills and compete with native workers. We empirically examine these alternative hypotheses using data from Israel between 1989 and 1999.We find that wages of both men and women are negatively correlated with the fraction of immigrants with little local experience in a labor market segment. A 10 percent increase in the share of immigrants lowers natives' wages in the short run by 1–3 percent, but this effect dissolves after 4–7 years. This result is robust to a variety of different segmentations of the labor market, to the inclusion of cohort effects, and to different dynamic structures in the residual term of the wage equation. On the other hand, we do not find any effect of immigration on employment, neither in the short nor in the medium run.     

The legacy of the past: ancient economic thought on wealth and development

Ancient economic thought was in general hostile to enrichment and saw wealth as inner wealth. This attitude was coherent with an economy mainly closed and static, based on agriculture and on slave work. But also it greatly contributed to restrain economic development in ancient societies. Ancient economic thought had an enormous influence on early modern thought. The latter borrowed its hostility from enrichment, which contradicted the real tendency of the new society. Thus, from the beginning, modern economy could not enjoy the support of a high economic theory. It could not legitimate enrichment and the increase in consumption.     

高校社会主义核心价值体系研究综述

从党的十六届六中全会提出社会主义核心价值体系命题,到党的十八大强调社会主义核心价值体系是兴国之魂,决定着中国特色社会主义发展方向。学术界关于高校社会主义核心价值体系建设的研究如火如荼。对已有研究成果进行分析梳理,可以为深入研究社会主义核心价值体系提供参考和借鉴,推动高校更好地践行社会主义核心价值体系。     

马克思社会分工制度理论研析:一个视角和两个维度

基于分工和社会分工制度动态演进的视角,本文力图从纵、横两个维度揭示分工与技术进步、生产力发展、商品经济和迂回生产之间交互作用、循环累积的内在机制。在纵向上,探索不同社会形态下社会分工制度与商品经济和市场经济同步互动发展的历史演进规律;在横向上,从当代不同劳动分工形态共生并存和相互转化中考察社会分工制度的最新发展及其演进趋势,进而揭示和丰富马克思社会分工制度理论的科学内涵。在此基础上,回答与社会分工制度密切相关的几个问题,并引出相关结论。     

The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.     

The legacy and promise of Vannevar Bush: rethinking the model of innovation and the role of public policy

The linear model of innovation argues that innovation takes place in a unidirectional sequence, with basic research directly diffusing in marketable product or process innovations. This perspective has served society well in past decades. However, recent productivity slowdowns in developed economies and the failure of innovation policies to continue to deliver desired results have called this perspective into question. Scholars explain these slowdowns by the oversimplification of the linear model which fails to consider the complexities associated with innovation processes. Although it is generally believed that Vannevar Bush’s report Science – The Endless Frontier – was based on his belief in a linear model of innovation and the notion that basic research is the ultimate source of all innovation, an examination of Bush’s writings and his life reveals that he believed in a more sophisticated model in which basic and applied research cross-fertilize each other and in which government’s job is not so much to stimulate basic research as it is to facilitate interactions between basic and applied research for the benefit of both and the prosperity of society. This paper explicates Bush’s model of the research and innovation process, explores the implications of that model, and derives policy recommendations.