Market segmentation and information values of earnings announcements: Some empirical evidence from an event study on the Chinese stock market

This paper investigates the trading activities of two distinct classes of shareholders, namely, the Chinese domestic investors and the foreign investors in the segmented Chinese A- and B-share markets, respectively. We conduct an event study on the annual earnings announcements based on two different accounting standards: International accounting standards (IAS) and PRC generally accepted accounting principles (PRC GAAP). The earnings announcements based on IAS and PRC GAAP are value relevant. The investors in the B-share market react to both the IAS and PRC GAAP earnings announcements, while the investors in the A-share market pay more attention to the PRC GAAP earnings reports. In the B-share market, positive abnormal returns are associated with positive earnings surprise and negative abnormal returns go with negative earnings surprise. We find preevent abnormal trading volumes without significant price changes for the A shares, which may be due to existing information in the A-share market prior to earnings announcements. The postevent abnormal trading volumes last for a longer period in the A-share market than in the B-share market.     

Short Selling Pressure,Reporting Transparency,and the Use of Real and Accruals Earnings Management to Meet Benchmarks

Abstract

Prior literature finds that short selling is beneficial to the market because it increases liquidity and helps to discipline optimistic market prices. The authors use 2 controlled experiments to examine the potential for an unintended consequence of allowing short selling or easing short selling restrictions. Because prior research identifies short sellers as sophisticated market participants who have the ability to see through accrual earnings management choices, we predict and find that, when reporting is transparent, managers are more likely to use real earnings management relative to accrual earnings management when short selling restrictions are relaxed. This is consistent with the idea that real earnings management activities are more defensible as the result of legitimate operating decisions and are therefore more likely to hold up to scrutiny from short sellers. Overall, the results suggest that regulations that are unrelated to financial reporting can affect how managers respond to the transparency that arises from financial reporting regulations.     

融券制度与内部人寻租——来自准自然实验的经验证据

内部人寻租一直以来是理论与实务界关心的重点,如何有效抑制内部人寻租行为是资本市场的重大课题。本文以内部人交易度量内部人寻租,分析了融券制度对内部人寻租的影响。研究发现:(1)融券制度对内部人寻租有显著抑制作用,并且融券规模越大,内部人寻租越少。(2)相比于国有企业,非国有企业当中融券制度对内部人寻租的抑制作用更加明显。本文还将内部人交易分方向进行回归,结果显示融券制度对内部人寻租的抑制作用主要体现在卖出方向上。本文进一步分析了融券制度影响内部人寻租的路径,发现“竞争效应”和“信息效应”是融券制度影响内部人寻租的两条重要路径。本文考虑了竞争性解释——分析师关注的作用,发现分析师关注并不能影响本文结论的正确性;本文还利用反面事实推断、倾向得分匹配、反向因果检验等方法,确保实证结论的稳健性。本文的研究结果,丰富了内部人寻租的特征及影响因素研究,有利于市场监管部门加强对内部人寻租行为的控制;扩充了有关融券制度的文献,为卖空制度的推行及完善提供理论依据。     

The effect of short sale constraints on analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

We examine the effect of short selling on analyst forecast quality following the pilot program in China in 2010 that allows short selling for selected companies. We find that reduction in short sale constraints significantly improves analyst forecast quality for these pilot-firms when compared to non-pilot firms. Specifically, analyst forecast errors for pilot firms are smaller and forecast dispersions are narrower. Further, we show that the improvement of analyst forecast quality is more prominent for firms with lower prior price efficiencies and disclosure quality, and in locations with lower institutional development. Our findings suggest that short selling activities serve an important role in facilitating the speed of information incorporation and improving the information environment faced by firms.     

Do short sellers outperformthe market?

During the current financial crisis, short sellers have been blamed for causing or at least accelerating the crash of the financial market. They have been accused of manipulating stock prices so that they would fall and getting rich at the ‘naive’ investors' expense. This study investigates the validity of these accusations by following the TA100 Index and four designed portfolios during the period 2006 to 2008. The designed portfolios were constructed in accordance with the weekly report on short selling activity issued by the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. The results show that short sellers did not succeed in outperforming the market during that 3-year period. Moreover, the portfolios that did not include the stocks picked by the short sellers performed more poorly (they should have been sold short) than the portfolios that included stocks chosen by the short sellers. These results contradict the hypothesis that short selling disrupts market efficiency.     

公司治理视角的中国上市公司盈余管理研究

盈余管理是一个令全球投资者和政府关注,但一直未能得到有效解决的问题。使用修正的Jones模型对1999—2010年中国上市公司的盈余管理进行估计,可以看出中国上市公司存在较为严重的盈余管理,盈余水平与总资产之比的平均值为7．6％左右。对公司治理变量与盈余管理之间关系作进一步的实证研究发现,第一大股东持股比例对盈余管理存在显著的正向影响,第二到第十大股东持股比例和高管持股比例对盈余管理的影响显著为负;民营控股企业进行盈余管理的倾向高于国有控股企业。这些结果意味着,中国需进一步完善上市公司治理机制,降低盈余管理的幅度。     

Intermarket sweep order trade size clustering around corporate announcements

Investors have different trade size preferences depending on their information advantage. Using intermarket sweep orders (ISOs), we find that investors appear to prefer using small, round lot trades around corporate events with higher announcement frequency and more predictable timing, such as earnings announcements. Around these corporate events, information is revealed, and analyst estimates are confirmed or rejected. Conversely, share repurchase announcements happen less frequently and the timing of these announcements are unpredictable. Relative to earnings announcements, share repurchase announcements create more uncertainty than they resolve. We find that when investors have less information, they tend to use costlier, larger trade size multiples. We further support the extant finding that trade sizes are smaller with the advent of high-frequency trading.     

卖空压力影响公司融资约束吗——基于中国A股上市公司的实证证据*

代理成本和信息不对称是导致公司出现融资约束的重要原因。本文以2010年3月正式推出的融资融券制度为外生冲击,以2005—2015年间沪深两市A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,利用双重差分（difference in difference)模型实证检验了卖空压力对公司融资约束的影响。本文研究发现：（1）卖空压力能够提高公司银行贷款规模,降低贷款成本;（2）卖空压力能够降低公司的现金持有水平;（3）卖空压力能够降低公司的现金—现金流敏感性。综合来看,卖空压力能够缓解公司融资约束。进一步的,卖空压力对公司融资约束的缓解作用在民营企业中更加显著,并且卖空压力可能是通过降低公司代理成本和信息不对称程度进而缓解融资约束的。在各种稳健性检验后,本文研究结论保持不变。     

An Investigation of Analysts' Praise of Management During Earnings Conference Calls

Through the textual analysis of a large sample of earnings conference calls, the authors find that analysts praise management on over half of earnings conference calls by saying complimentary phrases such as “congratulations on the great quarter.” The results show that analysts' complimentary phrases reflect the nature of the information released at the earnings announcement. The authors find that the amount of praise by analysts on an earnings conference call is strongly associated with the earnings surprise and to a greater extent the earnings announcement stock return. They also find that there is value to investors in tracking analysts' flattery of management during earnings conference calls, as it predicts abnormal stock returns over the following quarter. The findings, which are incremental to prior research on the tone of earnings conference calls, highlight a previously ignored aspect of analyst feedback.     

卖空机制、股价信息含量与暴跌风险--基于融资融券交易的经验证据

文章利用我国逐步推出融资融券交易的自然实验机会,运用双重差分的研究设计,考察了卖空机制对股价反映负面消息效率的影响。文章以2007-2012年的数据为样本研究发现：相对于非标的股票,融资融券标的股票在成为标的之后,其股价对市场的向下波动及时做出了调整,使得股价对市场正负向波动反应之间的不对称性显著降低,表明标的股票更加及时和充分地吸收了有关公司价值的负面信息;同时,相对于非标的股票,融资融券标的标的股票在成为标的之后,其股价暴跌风险显著降低。文章结果表明,我国股市推出融资融券交易后,卖空机制提高了市场对标的股票负面消息的定价效率。     

Unexpected Share Repurchase Announcements

Abstract

Open-market stock repurchase announcements are generally perceived by the stock market as a signal of firm undervaluation. Our study shows that repurchase announcements that were preceded by SEOs of other firms in the same industry within the prior six months (namely SEO-RPs) are more likely the result of lacking investment opportunities than signaling undervaluation, especially in concentrated industries. Specifically, we find investors response negatively to SEO-RP announcements while react positively to regular repurchase announcements. The higher the intensity of SEO activities in the industry, the more negative market reaction to SEO-RP announcements. We argue that the market doesn’t expect a repurchase announcement when other rival firms are raising more capital via SEOs. These SEO-RPs represent a negative surprise to the market and lead to a downward adjustment in value of the repurchasing firms in the announcement window. In the three-year post-announcement periods, the SEO-RP firms underperform regular repurchasing firms in both stock return and operating performance. Moreover, while regular repurchasing firms gradually increase their capital expenditures, SEO-RP firms significantly reduce their capital expenditures. These findings support our arguments that repurchase announcements that immediately follow SEOs of rival firms (SEO-RPs) more likely indicate the announcing firms entering a slower growth rate with fewer investment opportunities than signal the undervaluation problem. The underperformance in stock return and operation combined with a significant reduction in capital expenditures in the post-announcement periods are consistent with this logic and also explain why the market reacts negatively to SEO-RP announcements.     

机构投资者持股和会计盈余质量

本文从会计盈余质量的角度来研究机构投资者(’在公司治理中的作用。我们从盈余管理程度、盈余信息含量和盈余稳健性等三个方面来衡量会计盈余的质量。三方面的研究结果显示,机构投资者持股有助于改善会计盈余的质量:机构投资者持股公司的会计盈余质量显著高于其他公司,并且会计盈余的质量随着机构投资者持股比例的增加而增加。进一步研究发现,机构投资者还能够缓解大股东对会计盈余信息含量的恶化,起到一定的制衡作用。本文的研究表明,机构投资者能够在一定程度上改善上市公司的盈余质量,其快速成长有助于公司治理结构的改善,也有助于资本市场信息披露环境的良性发展。     

Earnings management by firms announcing earnings after SEC filing

This study examines motivation and stock market reactions of firms announcing earnings in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) after filing with the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). Most firms announce earnings in the WSJ before SEC filing. Firms that reverse this sequence are voluntarily delaying public earnings announcements. The authors find that these firms are not only poor financial performers but also engage in earnings managements. They are delaying their WSJ announcements to postpone announcing bad news. The authors find significant stock price reactions to both the SEC filing and the WSJ announcement. The price reaction to earnings is incomplete at the SEC filings. The market continues reacting to firms' subsequent WSJ announcements as if the SEC filing fails to communicate earnings information to some investors.     

Skewness,short interest and the efficiency of stock prices

We examine the association between return skewness, short interest and the efficiency of stock prices. Since preferences for skewness have been shown to impact asset prices, we examine how skewness relates to market efficiency. We find that stocks with positive skewness are less efficient, which might be explained by investor preferences for positive skewness. Next, we document that short interest reduces both total skewness and idiosyncratic skewness. Finally, while research has shown that short selling can improve the efficiency of markets generally, we show that short interest’s ability to improve market efficiency is strongest in stocks with the highest skewness.     

资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

审计师变更、时机选择与投资者评价

文章从投资者评价的角度对我国证券市场中审计师变更事件的经济后果进行考察。研究发现,在我国证券审计市场中,审计师变更事件具有显著为正的市场反应;市场总体正的累计超额回报主要是由晚变更样本的公告信息引起,晚变更公司在变更公告日附近的累计超额回报为正,并且显著大于早变更的公司;总体来看,审计师变更会显著降低公司的财务盈利可信度,并且在审计师变更以后,晚变更公司盈利可信度的下降程度显著大于早变更的公司。     

The effect of Airbnb announcements on hotel stock prices

The sharing economy model that was developed in the last decade has a major effect on a different aspect of life. The purpose of this research is to test the effect of a sharing economy product on its competitors. Specifically, this study used the event study approach to examine how Airbnb announcements affected hotel stock prices. To accomplish this goal, we used 180 Airbnb announcements to investigate the general effect of Airbnb, and the effects according to the type of announcement and the type of audience. The findings indicate that general Airbnb announcements have a negative effect on the hotel stock prices. In addition, investors respond negatively to positive announcements but not to neutral ones. Finally, announcements targeting young people have no effect on the stock prices of hotel companies, while the effect of announcements targeting families lasts the longest. We also explored investment strategies for general investors and those with inside information. We suggest that general investors short sell the stock on the day of the news announcement. Investors with inside information should short sell the stock a few days before the day of the news announcement. In both cases, investors should close their positions a few days later depending on the type of announcement.     

卖空压力对国有企业创新产出的影响

基于公司外部治理机制的视角,检验了资本市场的卖空压力对国有企业创新产出的影响。以历次融资融券扩容为政策冲击,采用多时点双重差分模型,验证了卖空与国有企业创新产出的关系。结果显示:加入融资融券标的后,国有上市公司的专利申请量相比民营上市公司有显著增长;卖空对国有企业创新产出的激励作用在市场化程度较低的地区以及地方国有企业上更为显著。     

Does Social Media Get Your Attention?

The author investigates how social media affects stock prices and post–earnings announcement drift in response to companies’ quarterly earnings announcements. Using quarterly earnings data as well Twitter and StockTwits data, the author utilizes Twitter volume and a residual methodology to generate an attention proxy that is orthogonal to the growth of Twitter accounts. The author finds that the new attention brought by social media after the earnings announcements positively affects the cumulative abnormal returns. Further, even companies reporting bad news can still have positive immediate cumulative abnormal returns if they attract enough attention from investors after an earnings announcement. The new attention effects are different in both magnitudes and statistical significance between social media popular and unpopular industries.