Climate precarity in rural livelihoods: Agrarian transformations and smallholder vulnerability in Vietnam

In recent decades, agrarian transformations in Southeast Asia have resulted in significant environmental and social change, yet insufficient attention has focused on the particular pathways by which these changes have increased vulnerability to climate change. In particular, climate precarity, a situation in which class, social, labour and/or gender inequities amplify negative impacts from climate change, has been on the rise for many smallholders. Using case studies in Vietnam of changes to swidden agriculture in upland areas and the loss of deepwater rice systems in the Mekong Delta lowlands, the paper examines social differentiation and ecological outcomes of these processes and how they have increased climate precarity, particularly for poor households and women. Based on longitudinal fieldwork in affected regions, we identify key changes contributing to climate precarity as farming systems intensify. In particular, loss of flexibility in farmer decision-making, loss of voluntary engagement with markets, and declining access to social capital and entitlements have increased risks for households and reduced adaptation options. Suggestions are made to more directly address these elements in future agricultural and climate policies, rather than current approaches to climate adaptation that often promote even more intensification of agriculture, which runs the risk of exacerbating precarity.     

Social Capital,Income Diversification and Climate Change Adaptation: Panel Data Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

The choice between specialisation and diversification of income is driven by multiple, interacting factors, such as economies of scale and scope, risk considerations, context, and household characteristics. Using panel data from Ethiopia, we investigate the role of social capital and the covariate risk of climate change and their interaction. We find that households with greater social capital tend to be more specialised, implying that diversification and informal insurance are substitutes in the mitigation of risk. We also find that this effect is significantly weaker in regions more prone to climate change, which is consistent with the average farmer being aware that informal insurance is not an effective protection against risks that affect the entire social network. We use instrumental variable random effects estimation to account for the plausible endogeneity of social capital and we also establish that our results do not depend on the poorest and most constrained individuals in our sample.     

Differential uncertainties and risk attitudes between conventional and organic producers: the case of Spanish arable crop farmers

The growing importance of economic factors in farmers' decisions to go organic has raised interest in characterizing the economic behavior of organic versus conventional farms. In general, published analyses so far have not considered differential uncertainties, abilities to control production risk, and farmers' risk preferences between conventional and organic practices when comparing these techniques. Our article attempts to assess this issue. We use a model of farmer decision under risk to analyze the differential values between organic and conventional Spanish arable crop farms and to assess the incentives for adoption of organic practices. Results show that organic and conventional farms do have different production risks as well as different aversions to risk. Organic price premiums and subsidies are found to be powerful instruments to motivate adoption of organic techniques.     

A real options analysis of Australian wheat production under climate change

A significant portion of the world's agricultural systems currently operate at the extreme end of the climate conditions that are considered to be suitable for crop and livestock production. Under these conditions, even moderate climate changes are anticipated to drive substantial transformational changes to agricultural systems. Transformations require new investments and infrastructure and can leave some assets stranded. These transformations can be partially or wholly irreversible, and hysteresis effects can make switching difficult and mistakes costly to reverse. This study demonstrates how a real options decision framework, ‘Real Options for Adaptive Decisions’ (ROADs), can be used to investigate how uncertainties about the climate affect the adaptation and transformation of agricultural systems. By building upon recent developments in the mathematics of stochastic optimisation, we extend traditional economic analyses of agricultural investment decisions based on net present values to better represent incomplete knowledge and uncertainty. We report results from a case study in South Australia that describes the transition pathways farmers might follow as their industries are transformed in response to climate change.     

Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China

Farmers’ risk preferences play an important role in agricultural production decisions. This study characterizes risk preferences among farmers in Yongqiao and determines how these risk preferences are related to their choices regarding climate change adaptation strategies. We find that most farmers in the study area were aware of climate change. They were taking measures to protect their livelihoods against perceived changes to the local climate. The risk experiment result shows that the representative subject was risk averse, and women were more risk averse than men. The relationships between farmers’ risk preferences and different climate change adaptation choices were different. Farmers’ risk aversion was negatively and significantly related with adaptation strategies on planting new crop varieties and adopting new technology, but it had a significantly positive effect on purchasing weather index crop insurance. The results also indicate that the level of education, farming experience, farm size, household income and perception of climate change impacts influence farmers’ adaptation decisions.     

Understanding rural household behavior: Beyond Boserup and Becker

New data and new methods have provided many new insights into rural households in the past 50 years. We analyze what we have learned from household models since Boserup and Becker, using this to frame more recent findings about household behavior from three types of studies: observational studies, experimental games, and impact evaluations. More sex-disaggregated data, as well as data that are collected at smaller units, such as agricultural plots, have allowed us to better understand agricultural productivity, risk sharing, and spousal cooperation. However, the focus on bargaining within households has often led us to ignore the cooperation that occurs within households. Many resources are owned and managed jointly by household members and many decisions are made jointly, although not all parties necessarily have equal voice in these decisions. Research demonstrating that households often do not reach efficient outcomes suggests that we still have much to learn about rural household behavior. Understanding both individual roles within households and the levels of cooperation, including joint decision making and ownership of resources, is essential to analysis of households, especially in rural areas where households engage in both production and consumption.     

Impact of farmer self-identity and attitudes on participation in agri-environment schemes

Influencing farmers to make positive contributions to the environment is one of the goals of agri-environment schemes (AESs). Understanding the drivers of farmer behaviour and the choices they make with regards to AESs is important as this aids policy makers in creating schemes that have a wider scope and are more likely to achieve environmental goals. Past studies have identified the importance of farmer self-identity and attitudes in decisions made on farms. Little emphasis has been put on modelling the relationship between self-identity and attitudes towards schemes and the resulting impact on participation in voluntary AESs. Using Ireland as a case-study, this paper employs a survey of 1000 farms to look at participation in AESs through the lens of farmer perceived self-identity and their attitudes towards schemes. A relatively novel approach of combining factor analysis, to generate a self-identity typology, with an AES participation regression model is implemented. The model results suggest that self-identity and attitudes have a significant impact on AES participation. Neighbouring farmers’ viewpoints also have a significant and positive impact on the participation decision made by farmers.     

Public participation and local environmental planning: Testing factors influencing decision quality and implementation in four case studies from Germany

Public and stakeholder participation in environmental planning is often assumed to enhance effectiveness through improving the environmental quality of decisions and enhancing implementation. We draw on the literature on participatory environmental governance in order to derive key participation-related factors that are hypothesized to impact on decision quality and implementation. We then outline four cases of decision-making processes in local environmental planning in Germany, representing a variety of forms of public participation, and what we suggest can be seen as four different pathways to ‘success’ in participatory planning. The case studies, recounted on the basis of stakeholder interviews and secondary research, are subjected to a cross-case analysis in order to examine the influence of participation in each case. We consider how key participation-related factors played out across the cases, and assess both decision quality and implementation against counterfactual non-participatory, or less-participatory, scenarios. In moving beyond accounts of ‘what happened’, and considering how participation changed the order of things relative to ‘what would have happened’ under different scenarios, the research highlights how very different pathways may lead to ‘success’ in participatory environmental planning from the viewpoint of process organizers and planners sympathetic to environmental issues. We conclude that, given the significance of context and surprises, planners and process organizers must be open to different pathways to the successful conclusion of participatory planning processes.     

Risk aversion and land allocation between annual and perennial crops in semisubsistence farming: a stochastic optimization approach

This article analyzes the effect of production uncertainty on farmland allocation decisions between perennial and annual crops, focusing on a representative farmer's attitude toward risk. A dynamic stochastic optimization model that considers net planting—the difference between new plantings and removals of perennial crops that achieve full production cycle—is used. The effect of uncertainty on the representative farmer's decisions to increase or decrease perennial crops’ acreage, on the optimal path, is examined. Our results reveal that the response of optimal path of net planting to uncertainty related to perennial crop production is highly affected by the farmer's attitude toward risk. A risk‐averse or a low‐risk loving farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops under uncertainty, while a high‐risk loving farmer will do exactly the opposite. Also, due to disutility of farming, the farmer tends to reduce land allocation to perennial crops when prices are high enough for him to attain a desired income level expectation. One implication of this research is the need for mechanization—in sub‐Saharan countries in particular—that increases per‐acreage yield and output in semisubsistence agriculture.     

农户参与农地整理项目后期管护意愿的影响因素研究

研究目的:揭示农户参与农地整理项目后期管护意愿的行为选择机理。研究方法:实地调查法,实证研究法。研究结果:户主文化程度、耕地面积、非农就业比例、项目后期管护认知程度、项目前期参与程度、后期管护资金来源、组织健全程度、监督检查机制、宣传等因素对农户参与农地整理项目后期管护意愿影响显著。研究结论:为充分调动农户参与农地整理项目后期管护的积极性,政府部门在制定政策时应以显著性因素作为重点参考依据。     

Brownfield risk communication and evaluation

Brownfield development is a risky business requiring specific knowledge and sensible judgement in order to create valuable real estate capital. This paper approaches brownfield risk in a multi-criterion, multi-actor interactive framework, taking into account the risks perceived and communicated by key actors. The paper begins with the development of a generic risk evaluation model using the analytical hierarchical process; this is followed by a primary purposive survey of experts’ stated-preference for weighting, ranking and scoring of risk factors developed earlier by the authors. The risk evaluation leads to a consistent hierarchy of risk factors influence brownfield decisions in the Melbourne context. Results indicate that site specific and project risks are the most important in brownfield development decision-making. Financial and market and planning risks are moderately important. Political and legal and socio-economic risks are relatively less important. The findings also indicate some inter sub-group variation in the relative importance of the risk factors. Developers rate financial and market and site specific risks most highly. Least of the developers’ concern is the socio-economic risk. Planners and consultants rate site specific and project risks highly. The AHP-based risk evaluation model is a new addition to the literature, and the findings may help improve explicit evaluation and communication in brownfield project financial decision and value reporting.     

An actor-oriented approach to understanding dairy farming in a liberalised regime: A case study of Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme

With the abolition of dairy quotas in 2015 major change in Europe’s dairy industry is anticipated at the level of individual farms, with consequences for how land is utilised and managed. Critical questions in this context are how farmers react to the myriad challenges coming forth from changed policy circumstances and, more specifically, the factors that influence their responses to these challenges at farm level. As part of a broader multi-disciplinary research project, this paper presents a narrative analysis of dairy farmers participating in Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme, an initiative that has facilitated the establishment of over two hundred new dairy farms. Salient with an increasing literature on Agriculture Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKISs) within agriculture, the paper focuses specifically on the actors who influence the decisions of the New Entrants (NEs) at this critical juncture in the transformation of dairy policy. Led by Norman Long’s actor-oriented approach, we examine social interfaces involving NEs and different categories of actors. We found that interfaces conditioned by coercive behaviour on the part of actors had a narrow scope of influence on farmers’ decisions compared to interfaces characterised by relatively equal power relations. The latter interfaces had the capacity to be strongly influential on broad habitual production and management decisions. Interfaces involving family members, however, had ultimate influence on major strategic decision-making, including decisions to establish new enterprises. Overall, our analysis suggests that NEs are empowered decision-makers in their social interfaces with other AKIS actors and our biographical approach to the analysis indicates that quota deregulation itself has not led to radical changes in who influences NEs’ decision-making.     

Risk aversion in agricultural water management investments in Northern Ghana: experimental evidence

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is one of the regions in the world most affected by food price volatility and production variability. Poor small‐scale farmers in this region are particularly vulnerable to this variability. As a result, households may be reluctant to adopt new agricultural water management (AWM) technologies when they involve more risk than what they mitigate. Despite risk's role in AWM investments, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion in relation to this type of farm decisions. To partially close this gap, this article uses an experimental approach applied to 137 households in Northern Ghana. We find that more than 70% of households are moderately or slightly risk averse. This contrasts with other studies in SSA, where most household decision‐makers exhibit severe to extreme risk aversion. We also find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are less risk averse than households playing gains‐only games. This result suggests that most farmers’ current wealth put them at risk of falling into a poverty trap. Thus, the losses from the riskiest investments on AWM technologies may fall more heavily on the poor, suggesting that additional efforts be given to the creation of viable insurance mechanisms.     

基于行为决策理论的宅基地退出影响因素分析——甘肃省654户调查数据的实证

文章根据甘肃省654户农户问卷调查数据,基于行为决策理论,运用Probit模型和结构方程模型揭示了农户宅基地退出的影响因素。研究结果表明:农户的文化程度差异、是否在外非农务工、是否有城镇户口等自身特征的不同,会使他们对退出宅基地的态度产生差异;农户的从众示范效应和退出宅基地后不确定性风险对农户宅基地退出意愿影响最大,是影响农户退出宅基地意愿的主导因素;宅基地的禀赋效应也显著影响农户宅基地退出。相关政策建议:(1)从社保、就业和宅基地退出后生活支出三个方面减少农户宅基地退出后的不确定性风险,从而消除其宅基地退出后顾之忧;(2)利用农户的从众示范效应分批退出;(3)采取多样化的退出补偿方式。     

Access to markets,weather risk,and livestock production decisions: Evidence from Ethiopia

Despite several studies showing the effect of access to markets and weather conditions on crop production, we know quite little on whether and how livestock production systems respond to variation in weather risk and access to markets. In this paper, we study whether and how livestock production responds to (access to) markets and varying weather risk. We also explore whether such responses vary across livelihood zones and livestock production systems. We study these research questions using households’ livestock production, ownership, and marketing decisions of households in Ethiopia. We find that households living close to markets are more likely to engage in market-oriented livestock production and use modern livestock inputs. We also find that households exposed to more unpredictable weather are less likely to engage in livestock production for markets, rather they are more likely to engage in livestock production for precautionary savings and insurance. Furthermore, greater rainfall uncertainty influences livestock portfolio allocation toward those which can be easily liquidated while also discouraging investment in modern livestock inputs. However, these responses and patterns vary across livelihood zones and production systems; most of these stylized responses and impacts are more pronounced and significant in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, where livestock herding remains a dominant source of livelihood. Those households relying only on livestock production seem more sensitive and responsive to weather risk and weather shocks. The heterogeneity in responses and impacts of weather risk among farming systems and livelihoods highlights the need for more tailored livestock sector policies and interventions.     

Factors Affecting Farmers’ Crop Insurance Participation in China

China's latest crop insurance program, launched in 2007, provides an excellent opportunity to explore the factors affecting farmers’ crop insurance purchase decisions, particularly decision making when crop insurance was first introduced into rural communities. This study surveyed all households in Kuangjiaqiao Village, Changde, Hunan Province, China over a four‐year period, from 2007 to 2010. Using basic regression models for cross‐sectional analysis and advanced models to consider lag effects, this study identifies the dominant factors influencing farmers’ crop insurance decisions. Results indicate farmers developed a dynamic adaptive process toward the new crop insurance. Farmers initially made relatively arbitrary decisions that were significantly influenced by community insistence or pressure to conform. Then, farmers gradually established more rational decision‐making mechanisms in which yield volatility, education, and engagement experience became statistically significant. The focus on the initial stages of the crop insurance program from this study helps improve our understanding of the demands within this rapidly growing market in China.     

Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems

This paper develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific biophysical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision-making process of the farmer as a sequence of discrete and continuous land-use and input-use decisions. An econometric-process model of the dryland grain production system of the Northern Plains demonstrates the capabilities of this type of model to simulate decision making both within and outside the range of observed data.     

Volatility,agricultural risk,and household poverty: micro‐evidence from randomized control trials

Households in developing countries are often highly exposed to risk and despite households’ risk strategies negative shocks often result in substantial welfare losses. Given the possibility that weather risks in particular might be further increasing, there is renewed policy attention on improving households’ risk management strategies. This article provides an overview of insights learned from recent randomized control trials on predictions coming out of the theoretical literature on households’ ex ante risk management. It reveals new puzzles and questions regarding households’ inter‐temporal decision making under risk, and draws lessons for effective policy design.     

Barriers and requirements to climate change adaptation of mountainous rural communities in developing countries: The case of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China

Systematically identifying the barriers and requirements to adaptation is critical to the successful implementation of climate adaptation planning and policies at the local level, especially in the mountainous rural communities of developing countries with limited resources and technology. We conducted an empirical study of the barriers and requirements to adapting to climate change of 539 peasant households in an ecologically vulnerable area of China to enhance their resilience to climate change by improving our understanding of adaptation process and decision-making. Our findings indicated that farmers in the Gannan Plateau face multiple adaptation barriers, of which normative, information and technology barriers were more serious, such as lack of meteorological information service, infrastructure and technology extension in agriculture or animal husbandry. Adaptation requirements are an important way to effectively reduce or eliminate obstacles and improve farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. The survey found that local households have an urgent requirement for infrastructure, information and production technologies, such as water, electricity, transportation facilities, disaster warning information, employment information and farming or breeding techniques. In addition, due to the influence of economic level, education level, years of farming, gender and other factors, differences exist in the adaptation barriers and requirements faced by farmers in different regions. These findings extend empirical evidence in favor of formulating a reasonable adaptation framework and choosing optimal adaptation strategies, which are essential for enacting well-targeted regional adaptation policies.