The role of communication on an experimental market for tradable development rights

Tradable development rights (TDR) are discussed as a means of containing urban sprawl in numerous countries. Introducing a novel experimental setting, we simulate a cap & trade TDR scheme and investigate the effects of communication, specifically among competing market participants and within teams of decision-makers. Communication reduces auction prices, leading to substantially less income redistribution from participants to the auctioneer. Nevertheless, no collusion is sustained. Team decision-making reduces overshooting prices and improves the system’s efficiency. We interpret these results as emphasizing the efficiency and political feasibility of TDR schemes for economic contexts in which communication among its participants can be assumed.     

Effects of international shocks and domestic macroeconomic policies upon Brazilian agriculture

An identified vector-autoregressive model is used to analyze the transmission of external commodity shocks to the Brazilian economy. The effects of the interaction between domestic macroeconomic (monetary and exchange rate) policies and external shocks to agricultural commodity (raw material and food) prices and crude oil price upon domestic (agriculture/industry) terms of trade are estimated.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor‐augmented VAR analyses

Fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied. This study is to examine the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. The major contributions of this study are twofold. First, unlike other studies that use indexes, this study analyzes the commodities individually, affording the inclusion of commodity‐specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory—an important determinant of commodity price—in a structural VAR framework. Second, it exploits a rich data set of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature, and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of comovement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the “comovement” in a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework. The findings show that monetary policy, global economic conditions, and the U.S. dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices.     

The financial crisis and its impacts on global agriculture

The financial crisis arose in the industrial countries, but has affected developing countries through higher interest rates, sharp changes in commodity prices, and reductions in investment, trade, migration, and remittances. For most low‐income countries, shocks that affect food prices or wage rates for unskilled workers seem likely to have the biggest impact on poverty, with the declines in key food prices associated with the crisis helping to reduce poverty. Policies to address the crisis must include measures to deal with: financial sector problems; the resulting reductions in aggregate demand; and the particular vulnerabilities of poor people.     

关于森林认证本质的探讨

探讨森林认证的本质对我国森林认证发展具有现实意义。森林认证的本质主要体现在市场机制、信息传递机制、学习机制3个方面。森林认证作为市场机制的含义是指森林认证是林产品生产和消费者的外部性通过市场内部化的一个过程,同时森林认证是以市场为驱动的机制;森林认证还是一种减少信息不对称的信息传递机制;森林认证作为一种学习机制是指生态知识、技术、经营实践等可以在不同的参与方之间转移。从森林认证这3种本质出发,对我国森林认证体系的建设和政府在森林认证中的作用等提出了相应的建议。     

Reconstructing production efficiency,land use and trade for livestock systems in historical perspective. The case of France, 1961–2010

This paper provides an original accounting of changes in livestock production efficiency per livestock category in historical perspective and connects livestock consumption with land requirements and virtual land trade. We use France as a demonstration study and account for productivity changes in terms of energy. Feed rations composition are reconstructed per livestock production and feed crop group over time to account for changes in land use in relation to dietary changes. Land requirements for consumption in France dropped by 28% over the study period besides an increase by 35% of the human population and by 53% of the livestock consumption. The two-fold increase in agricultural productivity is due, for half, to energy conversion efficiency improvements and for half to agricultural yields. Overall, the livestock energy conversion efficiency increased by 45% from 1961 to 2010, poultry gained 84%, pork 17%, sheep&goat 67% and cattle 27%. The feed share of oilcrops and cereals in animal rations doubled against a drop by 35% of feed from pastures. Virtual land imports for oilcrops in relation to livestock consumption in France today amount to 0.9 million ha against a maximum of 1.9 million ha in 1979. Besides its dependence on oilcrops imports, the French livestock sector displays net virtual land exports ranging from about 2.5–5.3 million ha per year over the study period. Gross virtual land trade is today five times higher than the net virtual trade. The difference highlights the share of circular product loops in increasingly integrated agricultural markets at the international scale.     

Tradable planning permits for land-use control in Germany

In addition to a broad range of qualitative land development objectives, the German Federal Government has committed itself to reduce the growth of settlement and traffic areas from currently 113 ha (2004–2007) to 30 ha per day by 2020. In order to attain this ambitious quantitative goal, our paper presents a market-based policy of ‘tradable planning permits’. This system would control land development by fixing the total amount of open space loss in a period with allocated planning permits, which can be traded between local jurisdictions. Since this approach is based on the cap-and-trade principle, we evaluate the transfer of traditional emission trading concepts to land-use control and explore regulatory options of potential systems: an undifferentiated permit system, a trading-ratio system and variations of zonal permit systems. We subject these alternative approaches to critical evaluation by using a variety of important criteria including efficiency gains, ecological effectiveness, hot spot formation and transaction costs. Finally, we summarize the potentials, limitations and risks of a permit trading system in general while reflecting the ongoing German debate on open space preservation.     

Shocks to food market systems: A network approach

In order to better understand how cross-border price shocks are transmitted to domestic food markets, we augment an error correction model with a network approach and apply it to Tanzania. We show the following. First, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's largest city and port, is not a significant influence. Second, demand shocks emanate primarily from border markets that may serve as conduits for informal trade. Third, market linkages differ considerably across seasons and commodities. Fourth, prices in areas with high production potential are especially sensitive to systemic shocks. More broadly, we show that a network approach in conjunction with time series analysis can enhance our understanding of the origins and channels through which shocks are transmitted to food markets.     

EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE CHINESE POLICIES ON THE WORLD GRAINS MARKET

The implications for the world grains market of a reduction in China's domestic absorption, and of the removal of its key manufacturing protection, are analysed in this paper. These policy changes are modelled both alone and together with grain self-sufficiency in China and with reduction in farm support in the US and EC. In themselves, the reduction in absorption and removal of manufacturing protection in China would have only marginal effects on the world grains market. If, however, China were to achieve grain self-sufficiency while adopting these macroeconomic and trade policies, world grain prices and trade would fall considerably. In contrast, even a partial removal of protection in the US and EC, simultaneously with the above Chinese macroeconomic and trade policy changes, could substantially increase world grain prices and trade. These positive effects would be considerably reduced if at the same time China were to become self-sufficient in grain.     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

Economic development and farmland protection: An assessment of rewarded land conversion quotas trading in Zhejiang,China

Facing a substantial loss of farmland in the reform era, the Chinese central government established a highly centralized land management system in 1998 to guarantee its capacity to meet the domestic food needs. In order to maintain high-speed economic growth, local governments in China made great efforts to circumvent the stringent constraint on land use by launching various innovative land management schemes, among which Zhejiang's rewarded land conversion quotas (RLCQ) trading scheme, a program similar to the transfer of development rights (TDR) in Western countries, has attracted a lot of policy and scholarly attention. In this research, we first provide an overview of China's farmland protection policy and the RLCQ trading scheme in Zhejiang Province. Then, using the system GMM estimator for economic growth models and a panel dataset of 69 local jurisdictions in Zhejiang Province covering the period of 1989–2008, we assess the impacts of RLCQ trading on local economic growth. The empirical results corroborate our hypotheses that participation in land quota trading in general led to faster local economic growth, and that the trading had a stronger and more lasting impact on the economic growth of the quota buyers than on that of the sellers. The analysis suggests that in order to balance the competing goals of economic development and farmland protection, market-based land management tools have a good potential for further development in China and other countries confronting similar challenges.     

水利水电工程移民土地补偿中的社会公平问题研究

土地是移民最重要的自然资本,也是维持生存最基本的生产资料。但在水利水电工程移民土地补偿中存在很多不公平的做法,包括补偿面积小于实际淹没面积、因投资主体多元化和移民安置周期长导致同地不同价、安置模式导致的土地补偿价格差异、新老政策交替与政策滞后导致的政策差异、土地补偿款兑现导致的个体差异、附着在土地上的隐性收入无法得到补偿等。上述不公平的做法导致移民心理失衡,存在诱发社会稳定风险的可能。为了规避社会风险,需要采取制度与安置模式创新等措施,保障基线公平、弥合参照公平,实现水库移民工程与水利水电工程的和谐共生。     

The land footprint of the EU bioeconomy: Monitoring tools,gaps and needs

The bioeconomy is gaining growing attention as a perceived win-win strategy for environment and economy in the EU. However, the EU already has a disproportionately high global cropland footprint compared to the world average, and uses more cropland than domestically available to supply its demand for agricultural products. There is a risk that uncontrolled growth of the bioeconomy will increase land use pressures abroad. For that reason, a monitoring system is needed to account for the global land use of European consumption. The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at the tools needed to monitor global cropland footprints, as well as the targets needed to benchmark development. This paper reviews recent developments in land footprint accounting approaches and applies the method of global land use accounting to calculate the global cropland footprint of the EU-27 for the years between 2000 and 2011. It finds a slight decrease in per capita cropland footprints over the past decade (of around 1% annually, reaching 0.29 ha/cap in 2011) and advocates promoting a further decrease in per capita cropland requirements (of around 2% annually) to reach global land use targets for keeping consumption within the safe operating space of planetary boundaries by 2030. It argues that strategic land reduction targets may still go hand in hand with the growth of a smart, innovative and sustainable bioeconomy by reinforcing the need for policies that support greater efficiency across the life-cycle and reduce wasteful and excessive consumption practices. Recommendations for further improving land footprint accounting are given.     

农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿及影响因素分析

[目的]与参与政府主导的生态补偿项目不同,农户参与市场化生态补偿有更大的自主性,因此在"建立市场化、多元化生态补偿"背景下,加强农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿的研究具有重要意义。探究农户参与市场化生态补偿的意愿,并识别出影响因素,寻求提高农户市场化生态补偿参与意愿的发力点。[方法]文章基于贵州省仁怀市208户农户问卷调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归从农户个体特征、家庭特征、农业经营特征和农户行为态度四个方面研究农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿及其影响因素。[结果]农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿整体较高,81.25%的农户表示愿意参与市场化生态补偿。家庭务农人数越多、家中有村干部、平地数量越多、坡地数量越少、对坡耕地经济收益越不满意、认为水质下降对作物产量影响越严重、越认同参与生态补偿可获得荣誉感的农户,越愿意参与市场化生态补偿。[结论]增强农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿要从以下三个方面发力:保障和提高农户参与市场化生态补偿后的经济收益;降低农户对土地的依赖程度;增强农户参与市场化生态补偿的荣誉感和参与感。     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

The Variable Response of Agricultural Supply to World Price Instability in Developing Countries

This paper analyses the effect of world price instability on the agricultural supply from developing countries and determines to what extent this effect is dependent upon the macroeconomic environment. Producers from agricultural commodity‐exporting countries are particularly vulnerable to the fluctuations of world prices: they are widely exposed to price shocks and have little ability to cope with them. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of risk‐coping strategies is conditioned by the influence of macroeconomic factors (infrastructure, inflation and financial deepening). Thus country‐specific price indices are established, and the response of production indices to price instability indices is estimated by using a panel model including macroeconomic variables which interact with price instability. Such analysis is based on a sample of 25 countries between 1961 and 2002. The results highlight a significant negative effect of the world price instability on supply, and further show that high inflation, weak infrastructure and a poorly developed financial system exacerbate this effect.     

Diet,trade and land use: a socio-ecological analysis of the transformation of the olive oil system

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972–2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades.     

Impacts of climate change,agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity in Bangladesh (1948–2008)

The paper examines the impacts of climate change, agroecology and socio-economic factors on agricultural land use diversity (ALUD) using a panel data of 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61 year period (1948–2008) by applying a dynamic panel GMM estimator. Results revealed that ALUD and total rainfall have actually increased @ 0.19% and 0.02% per year whereas variability in temperature has declined @ 0.06% with significant differences across agroecological zones (AEZs). Among the climatic factors, total rainfall significantly increases ALUD. ALUD is also significantly influenced by agroecological characteristics. ALUD is significantly higher in Ganges River Floodplains but lower in Meghna River Floodplains and Chittagong Coastal Plain. Among the socio-economic factors, ALUD increases significantly with increase in the prices of vegetables, jute and phosphate fertilizer and R&D investment. ALUD significantly decreases with increase in the prices of lentil, onion, sugarcane, nitrogen and potassium fertilizers and extension expenditure. Policy implications include price policies to improve vegetable and jute prices, stabilise/reduce fertilizer prices and investments in R&D to develop crops that are suitable for high rainfall areas as well as specific AEZs in order to promote ALUD in Bangladesh.     

Livestock pricing policy in sub-Saharan Africa: objectives,instruments and impact in five countries

Livestock pricing policies in many developing countries are often instituted without a good appreciation of the consequences of such policies for allocative efficiency, output and trade. This paper evaluates, in a comparative cross-country context, the objectives and instruments of livestock pricing policy in five sub-Saharan African countries: Ivory Coast, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Zimbabwe during the period 1970-86. It assesses the extent to which pricing policy objectives have been attained, and also estimates the effects of price interventions on output, consumption, trade and government revenues in order to draw out lessons for the future. The empirical results indicate that in comparison with real border prices, a certain degree of success was achieved in stabilising real domestic producer prices in the study countries. The results also show that since the early 1980s, there has been a gradual shift away from taxation of producers. However, consumers still appear to gain as much as producers in three of the study countries, with negative consequences for foreign exchange earnings and government revenues. The analysis reveals the importance of domestic inflation and exchange rates as key variables for livestock pricing policies and highlights the need to address the macroeconomic imbalances that cause exchange rate distortions and high domestic inflation at the same time that direct price distortions are being tackled.