Agricultural landscape dynamics in response to economic transition: Comparisons between different spatial planning zones in Ningbo region,China

Many major agricultural regions worldwide are experiencing drastic landscape transformations. Examining the complex links among agricultural landscape dynamics (ALD), land use and land cover (LULC) change, socioeconomic development and government planning is pivotal to enhance the efficiency of agricultural landscape management. With a case of the Ningbo region (China), this paper employs the structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify and compare the relationships between ALD and economic transition as well as the mediating LULC factors in different spatial planning zones. ALD are quantified by time series remotely sensed imageries and a set of landscape metrics; and economic transition is described by a set of indicators from three aspects (globalization, decentralization and marketization). Results show that ALD present similar trend in the two spatial planning zones between 1979 and 2013. However, the magnitude of ALD is larger in the non-urban planning zone. In particular, agricultural landscapes change into the fragmented, irregular, decreased, and isolated patterns at a more rapid pace. Economic transition drivers and LULC mediators differ remarkably between the two spatial planning zones. For the urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through construction land morphological changes and water body spatial density increases. For the non-urban planning zone, economic transition influences ALD through forest morphological changes and construction land spatial density increases. In addition, the relative importance of ALD determinants differs between the two spatial planning zones. Marketization plays a more critical role in driving ALD in the urban planning zone, while decentralization has a stronger impact on ALD in the non-urban planning zone. It is argued that land use master plan for agricultural landscape protection should be implemented in the non-urban planning zones and land use plan in the two spatial planning zones should be integrated. This study contributes to the understanding of the complex mechanism of ALD in response to economic transition.     

Identifying deforestation attractors and patterns of fragmentation for seasonally dry tropical forest in central Veracruz,Mexico

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are exposed to numerous threats stemming from human activity and are considered a high conservation priority globally. Nevertheless, planning the conservation, management, and restoration of forests requires a detailed regional understanding of current forest distribution, and patterns and attractors of deforestation. We explored SDTF cover in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, where little is known about this type of forest since it was erroneously considered to have been eliminated and thus has not be included in recent conservation planning in Mexico. A time-series of land use and land cover (LULC) maps, based on Landsat imagery from 1973 (MSS), 1990 (TM), and 2000 (ETM+), was used to analyze historical patterns of deforestation and fragmentation of SDTF in a priority watershed in central Veracruz. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main attractors of forest loss. Maps based on higher resolution SPOT imagery (2007–2008) were used to determine the current extent of SDTF. Results from our LULC analysis revealed landscapes that were consistently dominated (>50%) by some combination of intensified land use including cattle pastures, rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands, with closed SDTF cover fluctuating from 11.3 to 9.26% during the study period (1973–2007). Annualized rates of forest loss between Landsat images (1973 vs. 2000; −2.02%) and between Landsat and SPOT images (1973 vs. 2007; −0.59), were moderate to low, with historical records suggesting that most deforestation occurred more than a century ago before the Mexican revolution. Nevertheless, rates of forest loss varied considerable between different time periods, with slight reforestation initially (1.55%; 1973–1990), followed by a marked decline (−8.08%; 1990–2000), and finally a noticeable increases in forest cover (4.92%; 2000–2007) that corresponds with changes in public policy and trends in population migration. The number of forest patches tripled between 1973 and 2000 and the mean forest patch area decreased almost 80% over the same time period. Logistic regression analysis (1973–2000) indicated that the main attractors of closed forest transformation were proximity to gentle slopes, cattle pastures, and the hydraulic infrastructure needed for crop irrigation. Although SDTF is highly fragmented and perturbed, important remnants of this diverse native forest still persists in the region. Our findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and restoration efforts.     

The forest transition: Towards a more comprehensive theoretical framework

Building on the contributions of Mather and others, this paper offers an approach for developing a more comprehensive theory of the forest transition. We argue that long-run changes in forest cover in a country or region cannot be separated from the overall pattern of land use changes. Moreover, this pattern is determined by relative land values; forest cover changes over time as the value of one land use relative to the value of its competing use changes over time. However, the actual values that are used to allocate land may be far from optimal; that is, the presence of market, policy and institutional failures can distort economic and political incentives that can lead to bias in favour of one type of land use over the other, and may ultimately explain why a forest transition may be delayed unnecessarily in some countries and regions.     

Stakeholder perceptions and governance challenges in urban protected area management: The case of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area,Philippines

The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.     

Assessing the fragmentation of construction land in urban areas: An index method and case study in Shunde, China

The fragmentation of construction land due to decentralised urban development, disorderly mixed land use, and large-scale transportation infrastructure poses a threat to urban integrity. There is a need to quantify the fragmentation level in a consistent way for inclusion in planning-related decisions. In the context of China's urban sprawl, this study develops a quantitative and intuitive index approach that planners can use to analyse multiple fragmentation features of construction land within urban areas. The approach can be used in planning policy reviews for timely land-use assessment and can be integrated into urban planning processes for developing strategic land-use scenarios. The method was applied in Shunde, a typical urban area in southern China, and construction-land fragmentation and its impacts on environmental quality were analysed. The results show that the entire built-up area in Shunde displays a high level of fragmentation. Patches of industrial and rural residence have been identified specifically higher fragmentation level. The shortage of available construction land makes land consolidation within built-up areas very important in planning Shunde's future development. Moreover, the land shortage requires the progressive reduction of construction land fragmentation. The results of the study also indicate that although land fragmentation has been affected by transportation infrastructure and the existence of rivers and hills in this region, decentralised decisions from hierarchical local governance regimes have greatly exacerbated this situation. Shunde provides examples of typical land-use problems associated with quasi-urbanised regions in China; construction-land fragmentation is a greater determinant for the sustainable development of urban and rural areas than construction-land growth.     

Drivers of land change: Human-environment interactions and the Atlantic forest transition in the Paraíba Valley,Brazil

Human societies constantly interact with the environment through mutual feedbacks and adaptations. The aim of this research was to analyze human and environmental dimensions so as to understand how the dynamic processes of land use and land cover change are contributing to the increase of forest cover observed between 1985 and 2011 in the Paraíba Valley, Brazil. The forestry sector, based on eucalyptus plantations, is given particular attention due to its role in these change processes. Multi-layer perception neural network (MPNN) models were adopted to evaluate the influence of independent variables in the process of the forest transition. Based on the model's results, we conclude that the process is conditioned by a set of biophysical and socioeconomic variables that operate during different historical periods and in different landscape settings. The proximity of Atlantic forest remnants was influential in the forest transition for the three periods analyzed: 1985–1995, 1995–2005, and 2005–2011. In the first period of change (1985–1995), topography was most influential. Between the periods of 1995–2005 and 2005–2011, the proximity to eucalyptus plantations was an important factor, indicating a high probability of native forest recovery occurring in the vicinity of these monocultural areas. The forest transition tends to occur in areas less suitable for agriculture at the outset, but as these areas are replaced by forest cover, socioeconomic drivers such as farm credit and economic development play important roles in forest recovery.     

Is Oregon's land use planning program conserving forest and farm land? A review of the evidence

Planners have long been interested in understanding ways in which land use planning approaches play out on the ground and planning scholars have approached the task of evaluating such effects using a variety of methods. Oregon, in particular, has been the focus of numerous studies owing to its early-adopted and widely recognized statewide approach to farm and forest land protection and recent experiment with relaxation of that approach in 2004 with the passage of ballot Measure 37. In this paper we review research-based evidence regarding the forest and farm land conservation effects of Oregon land use planning. We document the evolution of methods used in evaluating state land use planning program performance, including trend analysis, indicator analysis, empirical models, and analysis of indirect effects on the economic viability of forestry and farming. We also draw on data documenting Measure 37 claims to consider the degree to which Measure 37 might have altered land use and development trends had its impacts not been tempered by a subsequent ballot measure – Measure 49. Finally, we provide a synthesis of the current state of knowledge and suggest opportunities for future research. Common to nearly all of the studies we reviewed was an acknowledgement of the difficulty in establishing causal relationships between land use planning and land use change given the many exogenous and endogenous factors involved. Despite these difficulties, we conclude that sufficient evidence does exist to suggest that Oregon's land use planning program is contributing a measurable degree of protection to forest and farm land in the state.     

Land use and land cover scenarios: An interdisciplinary approach integrating local conditions and the global shared socioeconomic pathways

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have profound impacts on the functioning of (agro)ecosystems and have potential to mitigate global climate change. However, we still lack interdisciplinary methods to project future LULC scenarios at spatial scales that are relevant for local decision making and future environmental assessments. Here we apply an interdisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit projections of LULC at a resolution of 30 × 30 m informed by historic relationships between LULC and their key drivers, within the context of the four qualitative scenarios of global shared socioeconomic pathways. We apply this methodology to a case study in the Zona da Mata, Brazil, which has a history of major LULC changes. The analysis of LULC changes from 1986 to 2015 indicates that pasture area decreased from 76 to 58 % of total area, while forest areas increased from 18 to 24 %, and coffee from 3 to 11 %. Environmental protection legislation, rural credit for smallholder farmers, and demand for agricultural and raw products were identified as main drivers of LULC changes. Projected LULC for 2045 strongly depends on the global socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and forest and coffee areas may increase substantially under strong government measures in the environmentally conscious Green Road scenario or decrease in the high consumption Rocky Road scenario. Our study shows that under the set of drivers during the past three decades reforestation can go hand in hand with increase of agricultural production, but that major and contrasting changes in LULC can be expected depending on the socioeconomic pathway that will be followed in the future. To guide this process, LULC scenarios at the local scale can inform the planning of local and regional development and forest conservation.     

Modeling the drivers of urban land use changes in Lusaka,Zambia using multi-criteria evaluation: An analytic network process approach

Curbing the historically unplanned urban development in African cities crucially demands that the drivers of urban land use (urban-LU) changes are comprehended. However, this has become a complex decision problem for African urban planners and policy makers owing to the interconnections among urban-LU drivers and the complicated mixed development of planned and unplanned areas. Therefore, this study presents a new framework to model drivers of urban-LU changes in Lusaka, Zambia for the last 50 years using ground questionnaire surveys and the analytic network process (ANP). The study considers the growth of six urban-LUs, namely, unplanned high density residential (UHDR), unplanned low density residential (ULDR); planned medium-high density residential (PMHDR), planned low density residential (PLDR), commercial and industrial (CMI); and public institutions and service (PIS). The results revealed that socio-economic (55.11 %) and population (27.37 %) factors have been the major drivers of urban-LU changes while political factors (13.07 %) have also played a role. The role of biophysical factors (4.44 %) has been insignificant. The ANP model ranks UHDR (1st) and CMI (2nd) areas as the fastest-growing primarily driven by interactions amongst migration, economic opportunities, social services and land market. The growth of PMHDR, PIS and PLDR areas, ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively, has been largely driven by plans and policies and the political situation. The growth of ULDR areas is ranked (6th) as the lowest. The study discusses the urban planning and land use policy implications and suggests several strategies including strengthening of the local planning authority; improvement of the land tenure policies and delivery systems; establishment of satellite economic zones to decongest the city; investment in both green and blue infrastructure; and timely policy reviews.     

Analyzing the drivers of tree planting in Yunnan,China, with Bayesian networks

Strict enforcement of forest protection and massive afforestation campaigns have contributed to a significant increase in China's forest cover during the last 20 years. At the same time, demographic changes in rural areas due to changes in reproduction patterns and the emigration of younger population segments have affected land-use strategies. We identified proximate causes and underlying drivers that influence the decisions of farm households to plant trees on former cropland with Bayesian networks (BNs). BNs allow the incorporation of causal relationships in data analysis and can combine qualitative stakeholder knowledge with quantitative data. We defined the structure of the network with expert knowledge and in-depth discussions with land users. The network was calibrated and validated with data from a survey of 509 rural households in two upland areas of Yunnan Province in Southwest China. The results substantiate the influence of land endowments, labor availability and forest policies for switching from cropland to tree planting. State forest policies have constituted the main underlying driver to the forest transition in the past, but private afforestation activities increasingly dominate the expansion of tree cover. Farmers plant trees on private incentives mainly to cash in on the improved economic opportunities provided by tree crops, but tree planting also constitutes an important strategy to adjust to growing labor scarcities.     

Planning for social inclusion: The impact of socioeconomic inequities on the informal development of farmland in suburban Beijing

Informal development on farmland is not only a major problem facing thousands of people, but also a major challenge to land use planning. In the rapidly growing literature on informal land development in China, most authors claim that ambiguous property rights and the dual land tenure system are the primary factors involved. As a result, existing state-led land use planning responses to informal development are solely focused on strengthening the legal regulation of land development. This paper challenges this approach, on the basis of the theory of urban informality. By examining many illegal gated communities in suburban Beijing, the paper argues that the informal development of farmland on the urban fringe is the result of local grassroots groups spontaneously responding to socioeconomic inequities in the context of transition to a market economy. These inequities mainly concern distributive inequity, procedural inequity and contextual inequity in relation to land use. It appears that the ongoing market-oriented initiatives of the state government could worsen informal land development unless these socioeconomic inequalities at the local level are tackled. The growing civil society is another change to the state's control of informal land development in China's cities. A new land use planning system which has more concern for social inclusion rather than focusing on centralized control is imperative in China.     

Mechanism of regional land use transition in underdeveloped areas of China: A case study of northeast China

By using Northeast China as example, this study measured the characteristics of the land use transition of underdeveloped areas (UAs) of China and explored the underlying transition mechanism. This study found that, the main characteristics of the land use transition of Northeast China during the last two decades (1995–2015) were continuous expansion of cropland, accelerated growth of construction land, and continuous reduction of woodland and grassland, as well as unused land. Policies dominate the process of land use transition of the UAs of China. The land use transition of UAs of China is a result of interaction and coupling between socio-ecological feedback under the guidance of policies and socio-economic change under the influence of policies. The former determines the direction of regional land use transition while the latter determines the intensity of this transition. During the process of land use transition, the sustainable use of land of the UAs of China faces several severe issues: inefficient use of urban construction land caused by unreasonable policy support, degradation of the ecological environment caused by irrational expansion of cropland, and both policy instability and policy conflicts. To resolve these issues, punishment and accountability of local governmental violations of land use should be strengthened. Furthermore, a land use information disclosure system and public supervision mechanism should be established by policy makers. The starting point of policy formulation should be shifted from quantity growth to quality improvement as well as from economic benefits to comprehensive benefits.     

Urban spill over vs. local urban sprawl: Entangling land-use regulations in the urban growth of China's megacities

Rather than a bad case of urban sprawl, the physical expansion of China's megacities may be viewed as a combination of ‘urban spill over’ and ‘local urban sprawl’. This paper reviews land use regulations in their institutional context and argues that conflicts in land use regulation are related to ideologies of land ownership and embedded in different planning doctrines. These hypotheses are investigated with special reference to Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province in southern China. The evidence suggests that entangled land use regulations for “urban” and “rural” land have imposed serious constraints on urban growth, while the contradictions of different policies and regulations in the use of rural lands for urban construction have led to intensive and unhealthy competition among stakeholders. As a result, not only have the costs of land conversion from rural to urban uses increased, but the spatial development of Guangzhou has been distorted. The implications of these failures for future policy are discussed with emphasis on the reform of the land use regulation system.     

Land administration “best practice” providing the infrastructure for land policy implementation

Land administration systems, and particularly their core cadastral components, are an important infrastructure which facilitates the implementation of land use policies. While most land administration systems traditionally have a primary objective of supporting the operation of land markets, they are increasingly evolving into a broader land information infrastructure which supports economic development, environmental management and social stability in both developed and developing countries. While a great deal of attention is given to land use policies worldwide concerned with such areas as forest management, coastal zone management, environmental sustainability and managing the urban environment, less attention is given to the infrastructures which facilitate the implementation of the associated policies and programmes. Importantly, all these activities rely on some form of land administration infrastructure which permits the complex range of rights, restrictions and responsibilities in land to be identified, mapped and managed as a basis for policy formulation and implementation. As a result, there is an increasing interest in the concept of land administration infrastructures and their core cadastres, in the principles and policies concerned with establishing such infrastructures and in “best practices”. In addressing this need, this paper attempts to explain the evolving concept of land administration infrastructures, the concept of “best practice” and the concept of a land administration “tool box” of principles, policies, laws and technologies which are useful in reforming or re-engineering land administration systems in support of a broader land policy agenda.     

我国土地利用和管理形势政策研判

目前土地利用和管理的政策重点为:调结构、调过剩产能、完善城乡统筹中土地制度,严格保护耕地.针对资源供应的刚性影响逐步扩大,全社会的发展理念发生着深刻的变化,为提高资源利用效率、走节约集约道路提供了良好的外部环境.应该供需双向调节,加速结构调整、统筹城乡发展,促进城市转型,加快宜居城市建设、实施建立差别化供地政策、强化耕地建设性保护专项工作.对2011年来讲,促进经济发展方式转变,节约集约用地是关键,严格保护耕地是硬任务,应推动土地利用方式根本转变.促进经济发展方式转变和经济社会又好又快发展.     

Nourishing urbanism: a case for a new urban paradigm

True sustainability demands that we seek to more than ‘prop up’ traditional approaches to our environment; rather, it requires that we redress current shortcomings in the planning and design of our urban environment at both bio-regional and local scales. Nourishing Urbanism proposes a shift in the urban and non-urban paradigm relating to energy, water and food; all face significant climate-related challenges—and are united by land-use policy, planning and design. We need a renewed planning and design framework for cities and regions that allows the retrofitting of today's urbanity, and prepares our cities for a new tomorrow. Nourishing Urbanism seeks to provide a malleable planning and design framework that embraces the symbiosis between urban and non-urban, and provides for the well-being of the human condition through recommending policies and technical solutions that readdress land use, ultimately impacting the security of our energy, water and soil resources, as well as infrastructure, food supply, health and design.     

Land use policy in China: Introduction

This themed issue of Land Use Policy builds mainly on papers presented at an international conference on ‘Land Use Issues and Policy in China under Rapid Rural and Urban Transformation’, convened by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, China, in October 2012. The conference set out to share and promote new scientific findings from a range of disciplines that advance research on land use policy in China. The contributions to this themed issue provide conceptual–theoretical and empirical takes on the topic, around four main areas of interest to both researchers and policymakers: nation-wide land use issues, the Sloping Land Conversion Program, land engineering and land use, and land use transitions. Various land use issues have been associated with rapid urban–rural transformations in China, giving rise to formulation of new policies directly affecting land use. However, these have contributed to new land use problems due to the nature of the policies and the difficulties in policy implementation constrained by the special ‘dual-track’ structure of urban–rural development in China. In view of this, this themed edition makes a compelling call for more systematic research into the making and implementation of China's land use policy. It also emphasizes the challenges for further research on land use policy in China.     

Conversion of agricultural and forest land to other purposes in the context of land protection: Evidence from Polish experience

The protection of agricultural land and forests is a relatively new concept in Poland, and it began with forest protection in the 1920s. The first regulations on the protection of agricultural land were introduced only in the 1960s. Agricultural land and forests received comprehensive protection pursuant to the provisions of the Act of 26 October 1977 on the protection of agricultural land, forests and land recultivation. This legal act set the foundations for the protection of farmland and forests in successive decades.The aim of this study was to determine the influence of farmland and forest protection on spatial planning and to highlight the loss of agricultural and forest land resulting from conversion to other purposes. Legal regulations pertaining to spatial planning and the protection of agricultural and land forests were analysed. The scale of the problem was identified, and future land-use types were forecast based on the data developed by Statistics Poland (GUS). The existing spatial plans (municipal master plan - MMP) were analysed to determine the conversion loss index (CLI) associated with the conversion of agricultural land and forests to other uses. Legal regulations pertaining to the protection of agricultural land and forests were also analysed, and the extent of the relevant conversion measures was determined. The study demonstrated that urban development and the inevitable urbanization of rural areas contribute to the loss of agricultural and forest land that are converted to other uses.     

Environmental impact assessment of urban land use transitions—A context-sensitive approach

Land consumption due to residential development, economic growth and transportation belongs to the most serious environmental pressures on landscapes worldwide, in particular in urbanised areas. Accordingly, the aim of containing the development of land is rated increasingly high on the agenda of environmental policy, at least in densely populated countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands or the UK. As a result, different strategies and instruments to prevent excessive land consumption are being discussed. However, many of these strategies and instruments adopt a rather general approach, while it seems more effective to define the particular areas where the goal of reducing land consumption is to be pursued. Such an approach must draw on information about how detrimental specific land use transitions are with regard to, for instance, the functionality of soils, water balance or habitat quality at specific locations. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for the impact assessment of land use transition in urban areas which highlights how such information can be acquired. This framework includes the differentiation of two levels of impact assessment: the level of the single land unit and the context level which takes into account regional and aggregated impacts of land use transition bound to the spatial context. The conceptual framework provides a basis to disaggregate (supra-)national policy targets regarding land use, to scale them down to the regional level, and thus to clarify the spatially explicit implications of land use policies.     

基于产权与利用视角的台中市土地变化分析

[目的]以我国台湾省台中市为研究对象,利用多源统计数据,对其2011—2015年土地产权变化及土地利用变化进行分析,以揭示台中市几年来土地产权变化和土地利用变化的主要特征。[方法]文章主要采用描述性分析和统计分析方法。[结果](1)2011—2014年台中市共计增加登记土地产权面积621 hm2,公私共有产权土地面积先减少后增加,至2014年达到643hm2。(2)已登记非都市土地总面积,从2011年起处于先减少、后增加的趋势,特别是2014年已登记非都市土地总面积增加较多,相对于2013年增加了1.4196万hm2。(3)都市发展区中的住宅用地、商业用地、文教用地、特定专用区的面积皆有增长,而工业用地、公共设施用地、其他区的面积有所下降;非都市发展区中的保护区面积比较稳定,而农业区、风景区和河川区的面积处在调整的状态。[结论](1)台中市私有土地面积占比处于下降趋势,但整体不是非常明显;土地所有制包括公有、私有和公私共有等多种形式完全可以共存;东南亚人取得的土地所有权数量在总体上增减变化不大;(2)台中市都市发展区用地虽有增长但增幅较小,而都市区土地、非都市区土地内部的用途竞争导致了各类用地功能区的面积此消彼长;土地所有制对城市用地扩展没有构成制约,即土地所有制不是城市发展的分歧所在;(3)非都市土地转换为都市土地,不仅取决于各类土地竞租能力的差异,还取决于都市发展计划与土地使用分区管制,土地用途转换应以经济高质量发展与居民社会福利增进为目标。最后,提出完善土地权利结构体系,增加公有土地面积占比来保障社会公共福利等政策建议。