Agricultural commodity futures trading based on cross-country rolling quantile return signals

This paper formulates and examines a new type of bivariate time series trading strategy based on signals generated from cross-country quantiles of return distributions. We conduct rolling quantile trading strategies separately in the U.S. and Chinese futures markets for soybeans, wheat, corn and sugar over very short (daily, intraday and overnight) holding periods. Overall, we find that these practical strategies outperform various benchmarks and there is a large profit potential when trades follow quantile-based signals rather than focusing on the median only. The results highlight the value of cross-country trading strategies and the harnessing of information from different parts of the return distributions which have so far been neglected.     

Betting against beta with intraday and overnight signals

The abnormal returns of the Betting Against Beta (BAB) strategy have attracted much interest among researchers and practitioners. Based on a market anomaly related to the Capital Asset Pricing Model, this strategy uses daily beta as a signal for portfolio construction. However, recent literature shows how some financial quantities, including beta, change between trading and non-trading periods. For this reason, we decided to compare the performance of the original BAB strategy with two BAB variants, where the signal for portfolio construction is given by intraday and overnight beta, respectively. Despite all strategies exhibiting positive cumulative returns, using the intraday beta signal leads to significantly higher performances. Further analyses show that the abnormal intraday BAB returns are mainly due to nano and micro-cap stocks which tend to outperform large-cap stocks, as well known from the literature.     

Institutional Herding in the ADR Market

This study examines institutional herding in the ADR market between 1985 and 1998. We find a significant positive relation between changes in institutional ownership and ADR returns over the same period. The positive relation persists after we control for the momentum effect in the US stock markets. We also find that in the ADR market, past winners (losers) in the herding period continue to be the winners (losers) in the post-herding period. The lack of a returns reversal suggests institutional herding is related to momentum trading. However, the positive relation between institutional ownership changes and ADR returns remains after controlling for momentum trading in the ADR market. Our results also rule out that positive feedback trading is related to institutional herding in the ADR market.     

High frequency momentum trading with cryptocurrencies

Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies have increasingly been discussed as alternatives to traditional fiat currencies. These digital currencies have garnered significant interest from investment banks and portfolio managers as a potential option to diversify the financial risk from investing in other assets. This interest has also extended to the general public who have seen cryptocurrencies as a way of making a quick profit. This paper provides a first insight into the applicability of high frequency momentum trading strategies for cryptocurrencies. We implemented two variations of a signal-based momentum trading strategy: (i) a time series method; (ii) a cross sectional method. These strategies were tested on a selection of seven of the largest cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization. The results show that there exists potential for the momentum strategy to be used successfully for cryptocurrency trading in a high frequency setting. A comparison with a passive portfolio strategy is proposed, which shows abnormal returns when compared with the momentum strategies. Furthermore, the robustness of our results are checked through the application of the momentum strategies other sample periods. We also compare the performances of the signal-based momentum strategies with returns-based versions of the strategies. It is shown that the signal-based strategy outperforms the returns-based strategy. However, there appears to be no single parameterization of the signal-based strategies that can generate the greatest cumulative return over all sample periods.     

Behavioral explanations of trading volume and short-horizon price patterns: An investigation of seven Asia-Pacific markets

We investigate whether behavioral postulations offer any implicit explanation of the country-varying relation between trading volume and price pattern among short-horizon winners/losers in seven Pacific-Basin markets during the period 1990 to 2000. Our findings lend credence to the Lee and Swaminathan [Lee, C. and Swaminathan, B., 2000. Price momentum and trading volume, Journal of Finance 55, 2017–2069.] Momentum Life Cycle explanation that high (low) volume winners (losers) are more likely to experience price reversals, whereas high (low) volume losers (winners), price momentum, in the subsequent period. This observation is especially pronounced in Hong Kong. Other models such as those based on an information diffusion process and overconfidence in glamour stocks offer limited explanation for the relation.     

Are intraday reversal and momentum trading strategies feasible? An analysis for German blue chip stocks

The success of trading strategies that lead to abnormal excess returns based on annual/monthly investment periods has recently declined significantly. We adopt the original frameworks of De Bondt and Thaler (J Finance 40(3):793–808, 1985) and Jegadeesh and Titman (J Finance 48(1):65–91, 1993) to an intraday reversal as well as momentum strategy scheme based on 5-min stock returns. We analyze 16 reversal and momentum strategies each with ranking and holding periods of 60, 120, 180 or 300 min (reversal strategies) and 15, 30, 45 or 60 min (momentum strategies) from a retail investor’s perspective. We find no indications for momentum in stock prices but strong indications for reversals. Our results are furtherly robust regarding to market adjustment, portfolio sizes and skipping periods between ranking and holding periods. Our results show that the returns of the reversal strategies are statistically significant, however, yet too small to be economically significant. Our results also confirm the efficiency on the stock markets.

     

Information transfer,microstmctures and intraday price return spikes

Previous research has identified overnight public information as the cause of higher opening returns and mean reversion in security markets. This paper tests this hypothesis by using an intervention and transfer function time series model to filter out the dynamic effects of an overnight information set on the opening, and subsequent, intraday AOI stock and SPI futures intraday price returns. A further research objective was to analyse the process by which information is transferred into prices and whether there is a differential impact across stock and futures markets. It was determined that the information contained in the overnight US stock market had: (i) a differential impact on the Australian stock and futures market, and (ii) after filtering out the impact of overnight information, a significant reversal tendency remained in both markets after opening. Further analysis supported the conclusion that price spikes at opening were not wholly related to overnight information. Other possible explanations, such as different trading mechanisms, did not provide a satisfactory explanation. Overall, it appears that the uncertainty participants face at the beginning of a trading session may induce a number of subtle market reactions (both rational and irrational), in markets with different microstmctures and trading clientele.     

Are investors consistent in their trading strategies? An examination of individual investor-level data

While it has been demonstrated that momentum or contrarian trading strategies can be profitable in a range of institutional settings, less evidence is available concerning the actual trading strategies investors adopt. Standard definitions of momentum or contrarian trading strategies imply that a given investor applies the same strategy to both their buy and sell trades, which need not be the case. Using investor-level, transaction-based data from China, where tax effects are neutral, we examine investors' buy-sell decisions separately to investigate how past returns impact differentially on the trading strategies investors adopt when buying and selling stock. After controlling for a wide range of stock characteristics, extreme price changes and portfolio value, a clear asymmetry in trading is observed; with investors displaying momentum behavior when buying stocks, but contrarian behavior when selling stocks. This asymmetry in behavior is not driven purely by reactions to stock characteristics or extreme stocks. We discuss behavioral and cultural explanations for our findings.     

Price Momentum and Trading Volume

This study shows that past trading volume provides an important link between 'momentum' and 'value' strategies. Specifically, we find that firms with high (low) past turnover ratios exhibit many glamour (value) characteristics, earn lower (higher) future returns, and have consistently more negative (positive) earnings surprises over the next eight quarters. Past trading volume also predicts both the magnitude and persistence of price momentum. Specifically, price momentum effects reverse over the next five years, and high (low) volume winners (losers) experience faster reversals. Collectively, our findings show that past volume helps to reconcile intermediate-horizon 'underreaction' and long-horizon 'overreaction' effects.     

The 52-week high,momentum, and investor sentiment

This paper examines the link between the profitability of the 52-week high momentum strategy and investor sentiment. We hypothesize that investors' investment decisions are subject to behavioral biases when the level of investor sentiment is high, resulting in higher profits for the 52-week high momentum following high-sentiment periods. Our empirical results confirm this prediction. In addition, we find that the significant profit of the 52-week high momentum following high-sentiment periods persists up to five years. Further investigations show that the strong persistence of the 52-week high winners (losers) is concentrated in stocks with higher (lower) earnings surprises, especially during periods following high sentiment. Overall, our results provide supportive evidence for the anchoring biases in explaining the 52-week high momentum, especially when the role of investor sentiment is taken into account.     

Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition

We explain price and earnings momentum by investigating dynamics of cash flow (CF) news and discount rate (DR) news. We find that before the holding period, winners experience higher DR news than losers, which makes winners display lower ex-ante expected returns than losers. Momentum returns come from the persistently higher CF news for winners as compared to losers both before and during the holding periods. The evidence favors a behavioral explanation that the market incorporates cash flow information too slowly, which drives momentum returns. In addition, we find that the DR news, in particular that of the momentum losers, drives the time-series profitability of momentum strategies. Furthermore, by comparing price momentum with earnings momentum, we show that the relative load on past CF news as compared to past DR news affects long-run portfolio performance.     

Momentum profits in the Australian equity market: A matched firm approach

This paper examines momentum trading strategies within the Australian equity market over the period 1990 to 2007, inclusive. We analyse excess returns employing both Jegadeesh and Titman's (Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency”. The Journal of Finance, 48:65–91) zero cost investment portfolio approach and a matched control firm approach. We also allow for short sale restrictions, liquidity constraints and transaction costs in the form of bid-ask spreads. Testing reveals that both the Jegadeesh and Titman (Jegadeesh, N., and Titman, S. (1993). “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency”. The Journal of Finance, 48:65–91.) zero cost investment portfolio approach and the matched control firm approach yield excess profits. While the implementation of short sale restraints increases momentum profitability, the subsequent inclusion of bid-ask spreads results in a reduction in these gains. Further, we find that executing a momentum strategy in Australia results in statistically significant dollar profits.     

Overreaction of country ETFs to US market returns: Intraday vs. daily horizons and the role of synchronized trading

In this paper we study the intraday price formation process of country Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). We identify specific parts of the US trading day during which Net Asset Values (NAVs), currency rates, premiums and discounts, and the S&P 500 index have special effects on ETF prices, and characterize a special intraday and overnight updating structure between these variables and country ETF prices. Our findings suggest a structural difference between synchronized and non-synchronized trading hours. While during synchronized trading hours ETF prices are mostly driven by their NAV returns, during non-synchronized trading hours the S&P 500 index has a dominant effect. This effect also exceeds the one that the S&P 500 index has on the underlying foreign indices and suggests an overreaction to US market returns when foreign markets are closed.     

Non-parametric momentum based on ranks and signs

This study proposes alternative momentum strategies built on the rank and sign of daily returns. Rank and sign momentum strategies are robust to the presence of extreme price movements. They generate significant profits for short-term holding periods and exhibit no long-term return reversals. More importantly, they subsume traditional price momentum, but not vice versa. In addition, rank and sign momentum strategies experience much weaker momentum crashes. Further evidence indicates that rank and sign momentum profitability is less vulnerable to salient past returns while traditional price momentum winners (losers) tend to be overvalued (undervalued) when they face a higher degree of salience.     

Firm characteristics that drive the momentum pattern in the UK stock market

Previous studies have estimated the company characteristics of previous winners and losers to explore the momentum effect. Using UK data, this study focuses on the characteristics of companies that actually generate the momentum pattern. These are previous winners who keep performing well (WW) and past losers who consistently perform poorly (LL). This study illustrates that WW and LL firms may exhibit market-based characteristics similar to those of young, low-priced, small capitalisation companies, but that there are significant differences. Accounting and fundamental signals (e.g. profitability, value/growth) tend to distinguish winners from losers. Based on firm characteristics, we further develop investment strategies that can outperform significantly the profitability of the momentum strategy.     

Do DOW returns really influence the intraday Spanish stock market behavior?

Although the behavior of the Spanish stock market has been studied from many different points of view, none of the previous research has ever analyzed the influence of previous daytime, overnight and daily returns from the DOW and IBEX upon 5-min intraday returns of the IBEX throughout the complete trading session. Clear evidence is provided relative to the influence of the DOW. The main finding that it underreacts to the DOW returns in the first hours of trading but overreacts during the last 2 h (after the opening of the US markets) would help to develop a profitable trading strategy.     

Does the Momentum Strategy Work Universally? Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market

This paper investigates effectiveness of momentum strategies in the Japanese stock market during the period of 1975 to 1997. The main findings of this research are that momentum strategy portfolios which invest in past three-to-twelve month winners and sell past three-to-twelve month losers lose about 0.5% per month over the subsequent three to twelve months. This means that stock prices in the Japanese stock market reverse rather than continue over a medium-term horizon. The most significant reversal pattern is observed at the first month of portfolio formation and is unique to small stocks. Even with the market risk and size factor controlled, the price reversal is still present.     

Asymmetric dynamics of stock price continuation

This paper finds that the dynamics of stock price continuation are asymmetrical, in terms of both business cycles and past performances. During times of recession, stock returns are explained differently for past losers and winners; the level of credit quality dominates the return dynamics for extreme losers, while levels of information-based trading activity and information ambiguity contribute to winners’ medium-term returns. Such asymmetry is proposed as the source of insignificant profits achieved using conventional momentum strategies. On the other hand, in times of expansion, conventional asset pricing factors are found to affect stock returns with a dependence on the level of credit quality; this suggests that more profitable momentum strategies remain to be discovered.     

Informed trading and the price impact of block trades: A high frequency trading analysis

Using high frequency data from the London Stock Exchange (LSE), we investigate the relationship between informed trading and the price impact of block trades on intraday and inter-day basis. Price impact of block trades is stronger during the first hour of trading; this is consistent with the hypothesis that information accumulates overnight during non-trading hours. Furthermore, private information is gradually incorporated into prices despite heightened trading frequency. Evidence suggests that informed traders exploit superior information across trading days, and stocks with lower transparency exhibit stronger information diffusion effects when traded in blocks, thus informed block trading facilitates price discovery.     

Intraday technical analysis of individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

This paper conducts an intraday technical analysis of individual stocks listed on the Nikkei 225. In addition to the price-based technical rules popularly examined in the literature, we uniquely propose and statistically investigate technical rules that utilize information regarding (1) the order-flow imbalance and (2) the order-book imbalance. Technical analysis using the imbalance-based trading rules is motivated by the evidence presented first in this paper that short-term returns can be predicted from the information regarding the order-flow and order-book imbalances for more than half of Nikkei 225-listed stocks. However, we demonstrate that no strategies, including limit order trading where trading signals are derived from the order-book imbalance, beat the buy-and-hold strategy within our sample. The results imply that past prices and demand/supply imbalances do not contribute to profiting in intraday trading and that non-execution and picking-off risks are too large for limit order trading to be profitable in our sample.