Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach

Applying the TVP-VAR model, we creatively construct multilayer information spillover networks containing return spillover layer, volatility spillover layer and extreme risk spillover layer among 23 countries in the G20 to explore international sovereign risk spillovers. From the perspective of system-level and country-level measures, this article explores the topological structures of static and dynamic multilayer networks. We observe that (i) at the system-level, multilayer measures containing uniqueness edge ratio and average edge overlap show each layer has unique network structures and spillover evolution behavior, especially for dynamic networks. Average connectedness strength shows volatility and extreme risk spillover layers are more sensitive to extreme events. Meanwhile, three layers have highly intertwined and interrelated relations. Notably, their spillovers all show a great upsurge during the crisis (financial and European debt crisis) and the COVID-19 pandemic period. (ii) At the country-level, average overlapping net-strength shows that countries’ roles are different during distinct periods. Multiplex participation coefficient on out-strength indicates we’ll focus on countries with highly heterogeneous connectedness among three layers during the stable period since their underestimated spillovers soar in extreme events or crises. Multilayer networks supply comprehensive information that cannot obtain by single-layer.     

Dynamic risk spillovers and portfolio risk management between precious metals and global foreign exchange markets

This study examines portfolio management and risk spillovers between four major precious metals (gold, silver, palladium and platinum) and 20 important U.S. exchange markets. To this end, we employ the multivariate DECO-GARCH model and the spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2016) to examine the spillovers between those metal prices and the exchange rates and design portfolios and hedging strategies using different risk measures. The results show evidence of weak average conditional equicorrelations among the considered markets over time, excluding the turbulent 2008–2010 period. Furthermore, the precious metals (excluding platinum) and the currencies (with the exception of the Australian, Brazilian, Denmark, Euro, Mexican, Norwegian, New Zealand and Swedish currencies) are net receivers of shocks. Finally, the four precious metals provide strong risk and downside risk reductions, underscoring the usefulness of including precious metals in a traditional foreign exchange-dominated portfolio.     

Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies

The paper investigates return co-movement and volatility spillover among the currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (the BRICS member countries) and four major developed countries from April 2006 to October 2019. Using Bloomberg daily data on exchange rates, the study employs a flexible multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH)–dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model and a vector autoregressive (VAR)–based spillover index, as the empirical strategy. Along with evidence of exchange rate volatility in BRICS currencies, among which the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan are explosive, the econometric estimation results show the presence of significant return co-movement and volatility spillover among the foreign exchange markets across different countries. The currency markets in developed countries, as leaders, are found to transmit volatility mostly to BRICS currency markets, which are net receivers. The degree of spillover, however, varies across countries, with Brazil and Russia passing on volatility to the developed countries whereas India, China, and South Africa receive volatility from their developed counterparts.     

A GUIDED TOUR OF THE MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION

Abstract.  We propose a critical review of recent developments in exchange rate economics which have offered a novel approach to exchange rate determination. This new strand of research, the market microstructure approach to exchange rates, is motivated by some very stark empirical evidence, relating exchange rate dynamics to the imbalance in the sequence of purchases and sales of foreign currencies in the markets for foreign exchange. Through our review we outline the results this new strand of research has achieved alongside its open questions and future challenges.     

A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets

The existence of time-varying risk premia in deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) is investigated based on a conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) using data from four Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets. A parsimonious multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) parameterization is employed to model the conditional covariance matrix of excess returns. The empirical results indicate that when each currency is estimated separately with an univariate GARCH-M parameterization, no evidence of time-varying risk premia is found except Malaysian ringgit. However, when all currencies are estimated simultaneously with the multivariate GARCH-M parameterization, strong evidence of time-varying risk premia is detected. As a result, the evidence supports the idea that deviations from UIP are due to a risk premium and not to irrationality among market participants. In addition, the empirical evidence found in this study points out that simply modeling the conditional second moments is not sufficient enough to explain the dynamics of the risk premia. A time-varying price of risk is still needed in addition to the conditional volatility. Finally, significant asymmetric world market volatility shocks are found in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets.     

Spillovers of currency carry trade returns,market risk sentiment,and U.S. market returns

This paper examines the link between spillovers of currency carry trade returns and U.S. market returns. Following Tse and Zhao (2012), this paper hypothesizes that the magnitude of spillovers of currency carry trade returns is positively correlated with market risk sentiment and, therefore, has an impact on market returns. Using the G10 currencies and S&P 500 index futures, the empirical results present a high magnitude of spillover effects of currency carry trade markets. The empirical findings also show a significantly positive relationship between spillovers of currency carry trade returns and subsequent market returns. Furthermore, the results indicate that this relationship is stronger in bear markets than in bull markets. Finally, our findings show that spillovers of currency carry trade returns significantly affect the subsequent transition probabilities of market returns.     

Spillover shifts in the FX market: Implication for the behavior of a safe haven currency

This paper explores the behavior of safe haven currencies by analyzing shock transmission among major currencies. To capture state-dependent directional spillovers, we incorporate Markov regime-switching parameters into the spillover model and estimate them using a Bayesian MCMC algorithm. By considering weekly data from September 2000 to March 2020, we find that the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, both of which yield relatively high excess returns in times of crisis, exhibit larger reductions of shock transmission and reception during periods of high-volatility than during periods of low-volatility. This implies that the safe haven currencies insulate themselves from shocks from other currencies by reducing interdependence across the FX market in crisis.     

Robust tests of forward exchange market efficiency with empirical evidence from the 1920s

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails, and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide. In addition, our methods allow for stochastic trend non-stationarity and general forms of serial dependence. The methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920s, which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system. The tail behaviour of the data is analysed using an adaptive data-based method for estimating the tail slope of the density. The results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods. We find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider (the Belgian and French francs, the Italian lira and the US dollar, all measured against the British pound), we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the Belgian franc, the Italian lira and the US dollar, and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis (where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium) in the case of the US dollar.     

Risk spillover from crude oil prices to GCC stock market returns: New evidence during the COVID-19 outbreak

In this study, we examine oil price extreme tail risk spillover to individual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets and quantify this spillover’s shift before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive heteroscedastic (DCC- GARCH) model is employed to estimate three important measures of tail dependence risk: conditional value at risk (CoVaR), delta CoVaR (ΔCoVaR), and marginal expected shortfall (MES). Using daily data from January 2017 until May 2020, results point to significant systemic oil risk spillover in all GCC stock markets. In particular, the effect of oil price systemic risk on GCC stock market returns was significantly larger during COVID-19 than before the pandemic. Upon splitting COVID-19 into two phases based on severity, we identify Saudi Arabia as the only GCC market to have experienced significantly higher exposure to oil risk in Phase 1. Although all GCC stock markets received greater oil systemic risk spillover in Phase 2 of COVID-19, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates appeared more vulnerable to oil extreme risk than other countries. Our empirical findings reveal that investors should carefully consider the extreme oil risk effects on GCC stock markets when designing optimal portfolio strategies, minimizing portfolio risk, and adopting dynamic diversification process. Policymakers and regulators should also enact awareness, oversight, and action plans to minimize adverse oil risk effects.     

Feedback trading in exchange-rate markets: Evidence from within and across economic blocks

This paper examines the pattern of autocorrelation of exchange rates in the EU, ASEAN, and NAFTA. We find no feedback trading within blocks among developed financial markets’ currencies, but it exists for less developed financial markets. Across blocks, no feedback trading is found. ASEAN currencies are an exception on both counts. When present, feedback trading is a destabilizing factor, and it takes place during rising volatility. Finally, the prevalence of negative feedback trading suggests that, in spite of the recent addition of new players into the market, such as mutual funds and hedge funds, the foreign exchange market is mainly influenced by informed players and/or central banks which intervene to protect their currencies.     

Is bitcoin a safe haven or a hedging asset? Evidence from China

Based on daily data about Bitcoin and six other major financial assets (stocks, commodity futures (commodities), gold, foreign exchange (FX), monetary assets, and bonds) in China from 2013 to 2017, we use a VAR-GARCH-BEKK model to investigate mean and volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and other major assets and explore whether Bitcoin can be used either as a hedging asset or a safe haven. Our empirical results show that (i) only the monetary market, i.e., the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIIBOR) has a mean spillover effect on Bitcoin and (ii) gold, monetary, and bond markets have volatility spillover effects on Bitcoin, while Bitcoin has a volatility spillover effect only on the gold market. We further find that Bitcoin can be hedged against stocks, bonds and SHIBOR and is a safe haven when extreme price changes occur in the monetary market. Our findings provide useful information for investors and portfolio risk managers who have invested or hedged with Bitcoin.     

The transmission of US economic policy uncertainty shocks to Asian and global financial markets

This paper proposes a novel approach to investigating the spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty shocks on the global financial markets. Employing a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we model US economic policy uncertainty jointly with the latent factors extracted from equity prices, exchange rates, and commodity prices. We find that US economic policy uncertainty affects these factors significantly. A country-level analysis shows heterogeneous responses to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty. With regard to equities, US economic policy uncertainty adversely affects equity prices. However, its impact on the Chinese equity market is relatively small. As for foreign exchange markets, while many currencies depreciate in response to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty, the US dollar and the Japanese yen appreciate, reflecting their safe-haven status. The Chinese yuan, whose nominal exchange rate is closely linked to the US dollar, also appreciates in response to uncertainty shocks.     

Multiscale features of extreme risk spillover networks among global stock markets

This paper studies the multiscale features of extreme risk spillover among global stock markets over various time–frequency horizons. We propose multiscale risk spillover indexes based on GARCH-EVT-VaR, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform method, and forecast-error-variance decompositions. We further construct multiscale risk spillover networks to visualize risk spillovers at different scales. Our findings show that the US and the UK are detected as the centers of risk spillovers, while Asian stock markets are mainly at the edge of the risk spillover network. The topological properties are unevenly spread over each time scale. The network tends to be closer not only at the short-term scale but also during the financial crisis. For individual features, the US and the UK are super-spreaders of risk spillover at each time scale, while most developing markets mainly act as absorbers. The role of European stock markets is complex at different scales.     

Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions

This paper applies a Diagonal BEKK model to investigate the risk spillovers of three major cryptocurrencies to ten leading traditional currencies and two gold prices (Spot Gold and Gold Futures). The daily data used are from 7 August 2015 to 15 June 2020. The dataset is analyzed in its entirety and is also subdivided into four distinct subsets in order to study and compare the patterns of spillover effects during economic turmoil, such as the 2018 cryptocurrency crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results reveal significant co-volatility spillover effects between cryptocurrency and traditional currency or gold markets, especially during the whole sample period and amid the uncertainty raised by COVID-19. The capabilities of cryptocurrency are time-varying and related to economic uncertainty or shocks. There are significant differences between normal and extreme markets with regard to the capabilities of cryptocurrency as a diversifier, a hedge or a safe haven. We find the significant co-volatility spillover effects are asymmetric in most cases especially during the COVID-19 pandemic period, which means the negative return shocks have larger impacts on co-volatility than positive return shocks of the same magnitude. Evidently, cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies or gold can be incorporated into financial portfolios for financial market participants who seek effective risk management and also for optimal dynamic hedging purposes against economic turmoil and downward movements.     

Explaining the Czech interbank market risk premium

This paper focuses on the development of the interbank market risk premium in the Czech Republic during the global financial crisis. We explain the significant departure of interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate by a combination of different factors, including liquidity risk, counterparty risk, foreign influence, interbank relations, and strategic behavior. The results suggest a relevant role of market factors and some importance of counterparty risk.     

Dynamic interactions between Central European currencies and the euro

We argue that the non-euro EU currencies of Central European countries have moved increasingly together with the euro in foreign exchange markets. To prove this point, we examine the dynamics of cross-elasticity between selected Central European currencies (the Czech koruna, Polish zloty, and Hungarian forint) and the euro exchange rates in U.S. dollar terms using daily data for the January 4, 2000 to April 5, 2019 sample period. We adopt the cross-elasticity model originally proposed and tested for the EU currencies by Orlowski (2016). To test the currency co-movements over time, we employ the Bai-Perron multiple breakpoint regression and two-state Markov switching tests. We find evidence of increasing co-movements between the Central European currencies and the euro that become particularly pronounced in times of financial distress. Co-movements of local exchange rates with the euro are also more pronounced during the euro-periphery sovereign debt crisis.     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

We employ a two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model. Second, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model to estimate the effects of the news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on the exchange rate as well as its volatility. The analysis is performed during the pre-crisis (2004–2007) and crisis (2008–2009) periods. CEE currencies react to macroeconomic news during both periods in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. However, the responsiveness of the currencies to central bank verbal interventions becomes important only during the crisis period.