Maintaining competitiveness of aviation hub: Empirical evidence of visitors to China via Hong Kong by air transport

Prior studies have not extensively researched and explored the key determinants (aviation and tourism attributes) that could affect Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a transit hub for international visitors using Hong Kong as a stopover to Chinese cities when travelling by air. This study adds to that knowledge to empirically investigate Hong Kong’s eight major tourist source markets (Germany, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US), and also provides an insight to policy-makers in Hong Kong to help them understand the factors that influence Hong Kong’s aviation hub competitiveness and tourism development. The findings of the study suggest that increased air transport capacity from foreign countries and Hong Kong to China, trade volumes between China and its trading partners, air transport costs, and the global financial crisis are the key factors affecting the number of visitors to China by air passing through Hong Kong as their preferred stopover. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

A case study: The impact of low-cost carriers on inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia

This study investigates the impact of low-cost carriers (LCCs) on Saudi Arabia's tourism demand. It also provides an understanding of the relationship between air transport development and tourism development in the Gulf region. The Box–Jenkins SARIMA-X models were employed to model and forecast international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia, using monthly international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia from July 2010 to December 2015. The forecasting models were significantly accurate, with lower values of MAPE, MAP, and RMSE. The findings suggest that an increase in airline capacity, religious travel, and airline competition are associated with the increasing international tourist arrivals to Saudi Arabia. This also indicates that there is a positive relationship between air transport development and tourism development. Further aviation liberalisation in the Gulf region is discussed to give opportunities for the region's LCCs to increase their share of the increasing air travel demand, thereby enhancing tourism development.     

The effect of LCCs operations and scheduled services deregulation on air charter business in Japan

Recent aviation deregulation is producing structural changes within leisure industries in many parts of the world. This paper reviews the development of low cost carriers (LCCs) and assesses its effects on both of domestic and international charter markets in Japan since 2007. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the effect of scheduled services deregulation on international tourism to Japanese regional areas in relation to charter services. The results suggest that in the domestic market, LCC operations have seldom impacted charter traffic due to the differences in target markets and routes. In the international market, LCCs launched scheduled services to Japan but mainly on high demand routes. The deregulation of scheduled services led to a passenger shift from charters to newly scheduled flights and a concentration of tourist arrivals in regional centres. It also led to a decline in international tourist arrivals in some remote destinations. This paper indicates a current trend in which charter business is still an important sector in aviation and leisure markets.     

Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments

In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to find events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We find that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non‐recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we find that the exchange rate influences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand

International visitor arrivals are considered to be a major source of foreign exchange, tourism-related employment and other tourism-related activities. This study used SARIMAX/(E)GARCH volatility models to forecast visitor arrivals by air transport to New Zealand from its eight key tourist source markets (Australia, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US)) and control macroeconomic factors together with global and regional structural changes. The empirical models reveal that the macroeconomic factors contributed at various levels to different markets, and the models we provided made accurate and reliable forecasts for visitor arrivals by air transport from all studied markets. The results from the markets for Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK showed that significantly negative tourism demand shocks increased the volatility of tourism arrivals, more than positive tourism demand shocks of equal magnitude. Accordingly, the findings of this study will allow policy-makers in the New Zealand tourism sector and other stakeholders (e.g. airline management) to better understand the impacts on the volatility of visitor arrivals to New Zealand.     

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.     

Assessing mainland Chinese tourists' satisfaction with Hong Kong using tourist satisfaction index

The purpose of this study is to test a two‐step tourist satisfaction index framework empirically. The first step estimates sectoral‐level satisfaction indexes based on a structural equation model, and the second obtains an overall tourist satisfaction index by conducting second‐order confirmatory factor analysis. This study is a pilot test of the theoretical framework based on three tourism‐related service sectors in Hong Kong. The results indicate that mainland Chinese tourists are most satisfied with the hotel sector in Hong Kong, followed by the retail sector, and least satisfied with local tour operators. The aggregate tourist satisfaction index is 74.04 out of 100. The results of this study have important practical implications for long‐term destination management. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism Policy in Jamaica: A Tale of Two Governments

This paper explores the role of public policy in the development of tourism in Jamaica. It focuses on two separate and contrasting periods. In the first, 1972–80, referred to here as 'The Socialist Era', the Jamaican government pursued goals of self-reliance combined with seeking to integrate tourism into Jamaican life. In the second period, 1980–89, 'The Period of Capitalism', emphasis was shifted to reducing government intervention and pursuing foreign exchange earnings. A comparison of tourism development during these two periods reveals that during the 'Socialist Era' some success was achieved in the Jamaicanisation of tourism but at the same time government policies contributed to an overall decline in the industry as measured by the traditional indicators of tourist arrivals, hotel occupancy, hotel provision and employment. During the 'Period of Capitalism' a change in policy is associated with a successful recovery of tourism numbers but an increasing tension between locals and tourists. The study cannot provide causal explanations of the links between policy shifts and tourism development. The wide range of external variables, including oil crises and world inflation, that occurred during the periods is too great to admit this kind of certainty. However, the policy background provides an important context for understanding the link between policy and development in one of the oldest and most well-developed tourist destinations in the Caribbean.     

Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the factors that shape governments’ willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels – especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations – will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry.     

Entry patterns of low-cost carriers in Hong Kong and implications to the regional market

This study aims to provide a better understanding of Asia's low-cost carriers (LCCs) by empirically analysing their route entry patterns in Hong Kong. Two alternative models have been tested, namely a standard probit model and a generalized least squares estimation. Consistent findings from the two models suggest that LCCs in Asia have a preference for large markets with big populations, high incomes and high traffic volume. On the other hand, the dominance of incumbent full service airlines (FSAs), fierce route competition and the lack of secondary airports are not critical to the growth of LCCs. However, government regulations and airport access are main impediment factors. Despite the adoption of long-distance low-cost models by the region's airlines, geographic distance still plays an important role in LCCs' entry decisions. For the growth of low-cost travel and associated benefits in the tourism industry and overall economy, it is important for governments in the region to liberalize aviation markets, provide sufficient airport capacity, and promote efficient allocation of airport slots.     

Air transport policy and its impacts on passenger traffic and tourist flows

This paper attempts to derive policy indices to quantify the restrictiveness of the aviation regimes in the Asia-Pacific region, and use the indices to establish the relationship between people movement and liberalisation in policy. Australia and Singapore have the most liberalised environment in this region. Evidence has been found that passenger traffic between city-pairs has been hampered by the restrictive air transport policies. Restrictions on the air transport sector also have a substantial negative impact on bilateral tourist flows. Further liberalisation in this sector could help build up a stronger tourism industry.     

International arrivals to Australia: Determinants and the role of air transport policy

Air transport policy, national income, bilateral trade volume, distance, common language and immigration are significant determinants of international arrivals to Australia. The close link between aviation policy and the number of international travellers might suggest that Australia has benefited from the liberalisation of the airline industry globally in recent decades.     

Research on China's Tourism: A 35‐Year Review and Authorship Analysis

This study reviewed 333 articles on China's tourism from 96 English‐language academic journals within and outside of tourism from 1978 to 2012. Tourism policy and impacts, and tourism industry development and promotion were the two predominant research themes. Tourism development, policy, ecological impacts, attractions and markets were the five most popular topics. On the basis of an authorship relationship analysis, three research networks were producing most of the China tourism research output in English. A majority of the authors were based in Mainland China, the USA and Hong Kong. Trends and gaps in the literature on China's tourism were identified. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perception and attitude of Hong Kong hotel guest‐contact employees towards tourists from Mainland China

In recent years, the majority of arrivals to Hong Kong, which were once dominated by the Western and Japanese markets, were replaced by arrivals from Mainland China. The number of tourists from Mainland China has overtaken others to become the largest single market for the territory. With its increasing significance, providing quality service to these visitors becomes crucial to the success of the tourism industry and of the hotel industry in particular. Unfortunately, the satisfaction rating of the Mainland visitors on hotel services in Hong Kong is reported to be relatively low when compared to those given by other major markets. It is suspected that the perception and attitudes of the service staff may influence their behaviour in serving customers. As such, this study conducted a survey questionnaire with 228 guest‐contact employees of hotels in Hong Kong. Results indicate that most respondents have a fairly positive perception towards the Mainland tourists in relation to the economic and financial benefits that they bring to Hong Kong. However, a majority of the respondents express negative perception and attitudes towards these tourists in respect to their appearance, personalities and behaviour. Despite some respondents indicating that they exhibit different service behaviour towards visitors from Mainland China and other countries, no major significant differences in their perception and attitudes were found in this study. It is recommended that various types of cross‐cultural training, such as sensitivity training and role playing, would be helpful to guest‐contact employees in enhancing their ability to be more objective and more tolerant of other people's behaviour. This study concludes that hotel employees, especially those who work as front‐line staff, must remain aware of their subjective judgments when dealing with guests and be more accepting of others. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is the tourism‐led growth hypothesis valid for malaysia? a view from disaggregated tourism markets

This research note attempts to re‐investigate the validity of tourism‐led growth hypothesis for Malaysia based on the data set of 12 different tourism markets from January 1995 to February 2009. The error‐correction modelling‐based cointegration test shows that economic growth and international tourist arrivals are cointegrated for all tourism markets. Nevertheless, the Granger causality results demonstrate that not all international tourism markets Granger‐cause economic growth. Therefore, identification of potential tourism markets is vital for implementing effective tourism marketing policies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global financial crisis and stationarity of tourist arrivals: evidence from Mauritius

The purpose of this research note is to examine whether shocks such as the recent global financial crisis of 2007–2009 had a permanent or transitory effect on tourist arrivals in a developing country – Mauritius. Principally premised on a new nonlinear unit root test, the results show that tourist arrivals are stationary. The implication of these findings is that the shocks inclusive of those induced by the latest credit crunch had a temporary impact on tourism markets in Mauritius.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

The impact of low cost carriers on Korean Island tourism

Given the mixed findings of extant research on the impact of low-cost carriers (hereafter LCC) on aviation markets (with some studies showing stimulation of new demand, other studies showing LCCs encroaching on the turf of full-service carriers), the emergence of LCCs in Korea raised an interesting question as to whether or not they actually contribute to overall growth in domestic air traffic. The literature has paid limited attention to this issue so far. Employing a multivariate regression analysis with monthly data from 2000 to 2009, the impact of LCCs on tourism demand to a popular destination in Korea, Jeju Island, is examined, focusing on two specific questions: Have LCCs generated new tourism demand and brought more tourism revenue into the island’s economy? Have LCCs mitigated tourism seasonality on the island? Controlling for the effects of a number of factors, results showed that LCCs have generated new demand in addition to existing tourist flows to the island. Korean LCCs accounted for 35% of total passengers in 2009, which indicates an average growth rate of 161.7% over the last 4 years, compared to a −0.3% growth rate for all full-service carriers in Korea. However, LCCs seem to have had little impact on reducing seasonal fluctuations in passenger traffic to Jeju Island. The findings of this study will be of interest to researchers, policy makers, and a variety of stakeholders in the tourism industry interested in the relationship between no-frills airlines and island economies.     

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.