Book production and the onset of modern economic growth

We provide a new data set on per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills, and assess this relative to other measures. While literacy proxies very basic skills, book production per capita is an indicator for more advanced capabilities. Growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role in creating the ‘wealth of nations.’ This study tests whether human capital formation has an impact on early-modern growth disparities. In contrast to some previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of long-term growth, we confirm its importance.      

Private versus social returns to human capital: Education and economic growth in India

This paper investigates whether differences between private and social returns to education of government sector employees can contribute to an explanation of the “micro–macro paradox” in the literature on education and growth. We hypothesize that in India educated people find privately rewarding jobs in a sector in which social returns are low, namely the government sector. This could help explain high returns to education at the micro level and small or negative coefficients on education growth in growth regressions at the macro level. The empirical results, which are consistent with this hypothesis, are based on an analysis of state-level data from India spanning 40 years.     

Population and economic growth with human and physical capital investments

We present a two-sector endogenous growth model with human and physical capital accumulation to analyze the long-run relationship between population growth and real per capita income growth. Formal education and investment in physical capital are assumed to be two separate components of human capital production. Along the balanced growth path equilibrium, population change may have a positive, negative, or else neutral effect on economic growth depending on whether physical and human capital are complementary/substitutes for each other in the formation of new human capital and on their degree of complementarity.

Human capital,innovation capability and economic growth in Portugal, 1960-2001

In maintaining that the main flaw in empirical studies on economic growth derives from the fact that they employ Solow-style neoclassical growth models, rather than testing actual endogenous growth theory, we examine the human capital-innovation-growth nexus, thus testing new growth theory more directly. We test its insights against the economic evolution of an individual country, Portugal, using time series data from 1960 to 2001. Estimates based on vector autoregressive and cointegration analysis seem to confirm that human capital and indigenous innovation efforts were enormously important to the economic growth process in Portugal during the period of study. In particular, the indirect effect of human capital through innovation, emerges here as being critical, showing that a reasonably high stock of human capital is necessary to enable a country to reap the benefits of its indigenous innovation efforts.Received: November 2003, Accepted: November 2004, JEL Classification: C22, J24, O30, O40 Correspondence to: Aurora A.C. TeixeiraThe authors are grateful to two anonymous referees, Paulo Brito and the participants of the 2003 Portuguese Society for Economics Research (SPiE) in Lisbon, Portugal for helpful comments and suggestions. CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.     

Migration, human capital accumulation and economic development

We study how the possibility of migration changes the composition of human capital in sending countries, and how this affects development. In our model, growth is driven by productivity growth, which occurs via imitation or innovation. Both activities use the same types of skilled labour as input, albeit with different intensities. Heterogenous agents accumulate skills in response to economic incentives. Migration distorts these incentives, and the accumulation of human capital. This slows down, or even hinders, economic development. The effect is stronger, the farther away the country is from the technological frontier.     

A note on work–leisure choice, human capital accumulation, and endogenous growth

The growth model of Lucas [Lucas Jr., R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1), 3–42] is enriched with people having the opportunity to optimally allocate a fraction of their time to non-productive activities (‘leisure’). It is found that the chosen amount of leisure reduces the steady-state rate of growth of per capita output. This implies that the association between income and welfare may not be as strong as it is usually assumed to be. The optimal allocation of time among activities depends on some of the parameters and the marginal product of physical capital per capita.     

A reformulation of the foundations of welfare economics

Neoclassical welfare economics takes an outcome-oriented approach that uses Pareto optimality as its benchmark for welfare maximization. When one looks at the remarkable improvements in economic welfare that have characterized market economies, most of those improvements in welfare have been due to economic progress that has introduced new and improved goods and services into the economy, and innovations in production methods that have brought costs down, leading to higher real incomes. Pareto optimality is only peripherally related to actual economic welfare, and no economist would argue that people are materially better off today than a century ago because the economy is closer to Pareto optimality. After analyzing the actual factors that lead to improvements in welfare, this paper suggests a reformulation of the foundations of welfare economics to replace the almost irrelevant outcome-oriented concept of Pareto optimality as the benchmark for evaluating welfare with a process-oriented benchmark based on factors that generate economic progress. The paper then explores some implications of this reformulation.

The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth

This paper analyses whether Maastricht and Stability and Growth Pact fiscal rules have affected growth in the European Union negatively. A growth equation is specified for a group of 15 European Union countries (and 8 OECD countries) over the period 1970-2005 to analyse this issue. Panel estimations using fixed-effects, pooled mean group and system-GMM estimators show that the institutional changes that occurred in the European Union after 1992 were not harmful to growth. Moreover, results show that growth is slightly higher in the period in which the fulfilment of the 3% criteria for the deficit started to be officially assessed, i.e. after 1997.     

Three levels of education and the economic growth

The aim of this article is to solve the question how the three main stages of education contribute to the labour productivity growth in selected 125 countries in the period 1999–2014. The model is based on the neoclassical production function enhanced with human capital. The authors draw on the Penn World Tables 9.0 and UNESCO databases. The key benefit of this article is that human capital is characterized according to the returns to education from average number of years of formal schooling at the primary, secondary and tertiary level. Based on the panel data analysis, the contributions of capital and of the three levels of education to the growth of labour productivity are estimated. At the same time, the model allows to estimate the contribution of total factor productivity. The results of the analysis show that tertiary education has the strongest impact on labour productivity across the considered economies. At the same time, the breakdown of aggregate human capital by level of education leads to better clarification of the effects of human capital and physical capital on labour productivity. The conclusions also indicate a tendency towards rising returns to scale induced by the secondary and tertiary education.     

Non-monotonic welfare dynamics in a growing economy

In an overlapping generations economy with endogenous income growth, I combine themes from the work of Cooper et al. (2001), Kapur (2005) and Eaton and Eswaran (2009) in order to provide an example of an economy whose welfare dynamics are non-monotonic. Particularly, the evolution of social welfare can be distinguished between two different regimes that arise naturally during the process of economic development. At relatively early stages, status concerns are inactive and welfare increases following the rising consumption of normal goods. During the later stages, however, individuals engage in some type of status competition that does not allow consumption to improve their well-being: their welfare actually declines as successive generations of agents increase labour effort at the expense of leisure.     

Endogenicity of economic growth models

In his celebrated 1956 article, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Solow calibrated the stylized facts of economic growth observed in the Western developed countries and summed up by Kaldor. Solow reconciled steady-state rate of growth of per capita output with constant capital/output and capital/labor ratios by introducing labor augmenting technological progress and measuring physical labor time in efficiency units. A series of articles have appeared since the mid-1980s, which have substantially extended the neoclassical model of growth theory presented by Solow. Most of these are entitled endogenous in juxtaposition to Solow's model, which is considered and often labeled exogenous. The purpose of this article is to show that this dichotomy is not worthwhile by arguing that the way technological progress enters in Solow's model plays a crucial role. Moreover, the designation of a model need not depend on the way it employs just one element among others.     

Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation

Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.     

The human capital and economic growth nexus: in East and South Asia

This study adopts a disaggregated regional focus to test for the human capital (HC)-growth nexus in selected nine Asian countries. It utilizes the Empirical Bayesian methodology which addresses not only the heterogeneity issue but it also utilizes the common structural priors of regional countries to yield ‘informationally’ efficient estimates of the impact of HC on the stock and levels of GDP. Various measures of HC are utilized to determine which of these produces a better explanation of economic growth in the two Asian regions. The study finds that primary and secondary education was more prominent in explaining the fluctuations of economic growth in East Asia, whereas tertiary and vocational education showed positive effects on economic growth in South Asia. Government expenditures on education were also found to positively affect economic growth in both regions. The results shed new evidence to establish that the differences in growth rates within East and South Asia are associated with differences in educational progression in the regions.     

The interactive effects of human capital and quality of life on economic growth

To bridge the gap in the quality of life (QOL) and economic growth literature and understand the reinforcing effects of QOL and human capital on economic development, we examine the interactive effects of these two factors on wage growth from 2000 to 2007 at the county level across the United States. First, a Rosen–Roback model is employed to estimate implicit values of amenities including climate, clean air and other natural attributes, which are used to generate QOL indices. Second, QOL, human capital represented by the share of college graduates, and their interaction serve as key variables in the wage growth model. An instrumental variable approach and location fixed effects are used to address endogeneity of human capital and control for location-specific unobservable characteristics. Results suggest that human capital and QOL significantly contribute to economic growth and the growth effects are even larger in nonmetropolitan counties. Importantly, we find that the effect of human capital on growth is larger in high-QOL counties and QOL enhances the effect of human capital on growth. Our results provide empirical support for community development strategies through providing utility-enhancing amenities that improve QOL and retain human capital.     

New insights into macro-financial stability and welfare

This editorial provides an overview of recent theoretical and empirical contributions to the debate on macro-financial stability and welfare, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). It introduces a special issue composed of a selection of articles presented during the 19th Annual Conference of the International Network For Economic Research (INFER). The conference took place at the University of Bordeaux in June 2017. The articles included in this special section discuss the impact of the economic policy on macro-financial stability and welfare, they highlight the importance of the mobility of production factors in a globalized world and analyze the role of institutions in promoting sustainable growth and macroeconomic stability.     

The nexus among foreign investment,domestic capital and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region

The objective of this paper is to estimate an econometric model for analyzing the interrelationship among foreign direct investment, domestic capital and economic growth in 13 MENA countries by using a ‘growth model’ framework and simultaneous-equation models estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) during the period 1990–2010. Our empirical results show that there is bi-directional causal relationship between foreign investment and economic growth, as well as domestic capital and economic growth, and there is uni-directional causal relationship from foreign direct investment to domestic capital for the region as a whole.     

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.     

中国经济增长的特征、可持续性与潜在增长率估算:一个综述

在本文通过对中国经济增长的表现特征、可持续性和潜在增长率估算三方面的理论综述,进一步论述了中国经济增长的发展脉络,并在此基础上提出研究中国经济增长理论尚需改进的空间.     

银行贷款与利用外资对经济增长作用比较的实证研究

我国的经济发展在近些年来始终保持着良好的态势，而支撑经济增长的因素众多，其中，作为企业运行的必要前提的资金来源问题，是我们要重点关注的。传统的资金来源就是银行贷款，另外一个值得关注的渠道为外资。本文对这两个因素加以比较，运用实证分析工具来考察两者发挥作用的大小，从而对政策取向产生某些启示。