COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model

Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant.     

A Primer on Financial Contagion

Abstract.  This paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks. We first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature. We then use a simple multi-country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy. In particular, the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries, without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections. Finally, tracking our classification, we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion.     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONTAGION RISK IN BANKING

The recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro‐prudential regulation and supervision. In this paper, we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system. It is argued that the structure of the interbank market, the size of banks, the linkages among them, the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion. We discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research.     

Towards an integrated model for the transference of environmental responsibility

This research explores how environmental responsibility transfers to others. Although environmental responsibility is one of the most debated topics in environmental management literature, a framework describing how a teacher's environmental responsibility shapes the student's environmental responsibility is still lacking. Adopting emotional contagion theory as a lens, the paper addresses this issue via the mediation of emotional contagion and the moderation of a teacher's environmental concern. Based on a survey of teachers and students (N = 283) conducted in Pakistan, our findings provide evidence that a teacher's environmental responsibility can better transfer to students via emotional contagion. Additionally, our data establish that the transference of environmental responsibility from teachers to students via emotional contagion is more effective when the teacher has a high level of environmental concern than when he or she has a low level of environmental concern. Finally, the authors discuss the implications for policy in detail.     

The nature,consequences, and management of emotions in interfirm paradoxical relationships—A conceptual framework

We develop a theory of emotions in interfirm paradoxical relationships with a focus on coopetition and emotional ambivalence. We suggest that appraisals of paradoxical coopetition situations lead to the arousal of multiple, oppositely valenced emotions of various intensities, combinations of which correspond to different states of emotional ambivalence. We explicate how emotional ambivalence, through managers’ appraisal and emotional contagion processes becomes collective and how it impacts coopetition performance. We further theorize how the negative effect of ambivalence on performance could be minimized and the positive effect could be amplified through emotional capability. Our theory provides a nuanced understanding of the complex nature of emotions, and how they arise, manifest, and impact outcomes in interfirm paradoxical relationships.     

Overlapping portfolios,contagion, and financial stability

We study the problem of interacting channels of contagion in financial networks. The first channel of contagion is counterparty failure risk; this is captured empirically using data for the Austrian interbank network. The second channel of contagion is overlapping portfolio exposures; this is studied using a stylized model. We perform stress tests according to different protocols. For the parameters we study neither channel of contagion results in large effects on its own. In contrast, when both channels are active at once, bankruptcies are much more common and have large systemic effects.     

A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement

The financial crisis led to a number of new systemic risk measures and a renewed concern over the risk of contagion. This paper surveys the systemic risk literature with a focus on the importance of contributions made by those emphasizing a network-based approach, and how that compares with more commonly used approaches. Research on systemic risk has generally found that the risk of contagion through domino effects is minimal, and thus emphasized focusing on the resiliency of the financial system to broad macroeconomic shocks. Theoretical, methodological, and empirical work is critically examined to provide insight on how and why regulators have emphasized deregulation, diversification, size-based regulations, and portfolio-based coherent systemic risk measures. Furthermore, in the context of network analysis, this paper reviews and critically assesses newly created systemic risk measures. Network analysis and agent-based modeling approaches to understanding network formation offer promise in helping understand contagion, and also detecting fragile systems before they collapse. Theory and evidence discussed here implies that regulators and researchers need to gain an improved understanding of how topology, capital requirements, and liquidity interact.     

Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets

This paper investigates contagion to European stock markets associated with seven big financial shocks between 1997 and 2002. We apply methods using heteroscedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficients to discriminate between contagion, interdependence and breaks in stock markets relationships. The analysis focuses on a comparison between developed Western European markets and emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe. We find modest evidence of significant instabilities in cross-market linkages after the crises. The Central and Eastern European stock markets are not more vulnerable to contagion than Western European markets.     

Global finance,sovereign risk and economic performance of Brazil

This paper examines the impact of globalized financial markets on domestic economic policymaking and, ultimately, on economic sovereignty. It argues that the development of dollar-denominated Brady bonds, eurobonds, and global bonds issued by Latin sovereigns opened a new venue for foreign capital to participate in economic affairs of these countries. A natural outcome of the globalization of Brazil’s financial markets has been the increased vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to contagion from financial crises in other troubled markets of the globe. This paper focuses on how the contagion channel compromised domestic economic policymaking and affected the real sector of the Brazilian economy. It offers the first analytical attempt at estimating the real cost of contagion by investigating the impact of the Russian and the Argentine crises on Brazil’s output and production.     

Dynamic credit contagion and aggregate loss in networks

We develop a dynamic model to illustrate the credit risk contagion mechanism caused by interaction between firms. Specifically, we formulate the sources of risk into idiosyncratic risk and contagion risk, and introduce recovery ability to model the scenario of a firm changing from default into normal status. Our result shows that there always exists a steady state in a network under some trivial conditions. For quasi-regular networks and bipartite networks, the expected aggregate loss remains unchanged as long as the product of the contagion probability and the partner number is fixed.     

The contagion effect of foreclosed properties

Although previous research shows that prices of homes in neighborhoods with foreclosures are lower than those in neighborhoods without foreclosures, it remains unclear whether the lower prices are the result of a general decline in neighborhood values or whether foreclosures reduce the prices of nearby non-distressed sales through a contagion effect. We provide robust evidence of a contagion discount by simultaneously estimating the local price trend and the incremental price impact of nearby foreclosures. At its peak, the discount is roughly 1% per nearby foreclosed property. The discount diminishes rapidly as the distance to the distressed property increases. The contagion discount grows from the onset of distress through the foreclosure sale and then stabilizes. This pattern is consistent with the contagion effect being the visual externality associated with deferred maintenance and neglect.     

Did Vietnam stock market avoid the “contagion risk” from China and the U.S.? The contagion effect test with dynamic correlation coefficients

This paper examines the Vietnamese stock market with an extension of the recent investigation of risk contagion effects. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006–June 19, 2009 are sourced for the empirical validation of the risk contagion between the stock markets in Vietnam, China, and the U.S. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariable EGARCH model of dynamic condition correlation coefficients. First, we examine whether there are contagion effects when there is a financial crisis in the Vietnamese stock market. Next, we verify whether the contagion risk triggered by the crisis can affect the Vietnamese market and examine which market influences the Vietnamese market the most. We find that compared to the U.S. stock market, the Chinese stock market brings more contagion risk to the Vietnamese market, and these effects gain more significance after the sub-prime mortgage crisis.     

Does the bank risk concentration freeze the interbank system?

Probably, one test of the stability of the banking system is to evaluate how risky assets are distributed across banks’ portfolios and the implications for the contagion via interbank relations. This paper explores theoretically a bank sector with risks concentration and the functioning of interbank markets. It employs a simple model where banks are exposed to both credit and liquidity risk that suddenly correlate over the business cycle. We show that risk concentration makes interbank market breakdowns more likely and welfare monotonically decreases in risk concentration.     

Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models

This paper studies the problem of disentangling risk correlation and contagion in a set of individual binary processes. The two admissible values correspond to bad and good risk states of an individual. The risk correlation is captured by introducing a dynamic frailty, whereas the contagion passes through the effect of the lagged number of individuals in the bad risk state. We study carefully the dynamic properties of the joint process. Then, we focus on the limiting case of large populations (portfolios). The difficulty to identify risk correlation and contagion in finite samples is illustrated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations.     

How supervisors set the tone for long hours: Vicarious learning,subordinates' self-motives and the contagion of working hours

This paper develops a theoretical model that highlights the mechanisms underlying the contagion of long working hours from supervisors to subordinates at different stages of their relationship. Drawing upon social learning theory, we suggest that subordinates mimic the supervisor's working hours through vicarious learning. Focusing first on the role-taking stage of the supervisor-subordinate relationship, we identify four factors, namely supervisor's perceived status, subordinate's work centrality, congruence between organizational norms and supervisor's working hours, and subordinate's identification with the supervisor, that may influence the perceived desirability of adopting the supervisor's working hours. We then examine the relative influence of each of these factors through the lens of subordinates' self-motives. Turning, next, to the routinized supervisor-subordinate relationship, we elaborate on how social contagion may evolve over time. Lastly, the implications of our model as well as future research avenues are presented.     

The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic

This paper tests the market jump contagion hypothesis in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first use a nonparametric approach to identify jumps by decomposing the realized volatility into continuous and jump components, and we use the threshold autoregressive model to describe the jump interdependency structure between different markets. We empirically investigate the contagion effect across several major Asian equity markets (Mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan) using the 5-minute high frequency data. Some key findings emerge: jump behaviors occur frequently and make an important contribution to the total realized volatility; jump dynamics exhibit significant nonlinearity, asymmetry, and the feature of structural breaks, which can be effectively captured by the threshold autoregressive model; jump contagion effects are obviously detected and this effect varies depending on the regime.     

Understanding undergraduate students’ experience: a content analysis using NSSE open-ended comments as an example

This study demonstrates how a qualitative content analysis method may be used to help understand undergraduate students’ experience. We examine and rationalize the methodological concerns regarding content analysis of open-ended comments in the qualitative study. We describe a data analysis technique, using qualitative responses from National Survey of Student Engagement (NSSE) as an example, and highlight the findings in a thematic way to convey how undergraduate students perceive issues that challenge them to develop skills, awareness, and confidence, as well as the potential factors that influence student engagement and future success. Finally, we provide potentials of how these findings can be utilized to improve student experience, limitations of this study as well as suggestions for future research.     

Green supply chain integration and financial performance: A social contagion and information sharing perspective

Although green supply chain integration (GSCI) has received wide attention, how it diffuses among supply chain members to affect the manufacturer's performance is still unclear. This study examines the relationships among GSCI, information sharing, and financial performance from a social contagion lens. By conceptualizing GSCI into three forms, two types of contagion mechanisms (i.e., cohesion and structural equivalence) were identified to investigate the underlying contagion effects between different forms of GSCI and the effects of various GSCI on information sharing and financial performance. Survey data were collected from 206 Chinese manufacturers and analyzed using structural equation modeling to test hypotheses. The results indicate that green supplier integration directly promotes green internal integration, green customer integration, and information sharing with suppliers. Green internal integration positively influences green customer integration and financial performance. Green customer integration enhances information sharing with customers. Both information sharing with suppliers and customers improve financial performance. This study contributes to the GSCI literature and provides novel managerial implications for manufacturers.