和田地区人口增长及存在的问题

运用和田地区的第六次人口普查及相关资料,对和田地区新中国成立以来的人口发展历程,人口数量、人口年龄构成、民族构成、受教育程度等进行分析并找出和田地区人口发展中存在的问题,同时为解决目前和田地区面临的人口问题提出建议。     

和田地区人口增长对可持续发展的影响

人口、资源、环境、经济等问题是当前实现可持续发展的关键问题。为了和田地区经济的稳定发展,实现资源的可持续利用,就必须解决日益增长的人口问题。解决和田地区的人口问题必须采取相应配套措施。     

和田地区人口发展现状及特点

本文利用“五普”、“六普”及相关人口统计资料,对和田地区人口发展现状及特点进行研究.研究结果表明,和田地区人口发展具有人口数量稳步增长,家庭户数有所增加,人口以少数民族为主,人口文化素质显著提高,人口密度逐年增大,总人口性别比进一步优化,人口向成年型转变,人口生活质量明显改善,人口健康水平进一步提高等特点.研究的结论有助于促进和田地区人口与经济的协调发展,同时为和田地区人口发展“十三五”规划提供借鉴.     

北京市人口增长原因及其调控对策研究

本文从户籍人口和非户籍常住人口两个方面对北京市人口增长的原因及其调控对策进行分析.其中影响户籍人口增长的原因包括户籍人口的自然增长和机械增长;影响非户籍常住人口增长的原因有经济、政策因素.相应地,本文也从户籍人口和非户籍常住人口两方面对北京市人口调控政策进行研究,提出促进北京市人口合理流动、降低北京市中心城区人口密度的对策.     

建国以来人口结构变迁与经济增长关系研究

文章梳理讨论了我国人口变迁的历史过程,在此基础上分析人口结构的变化趋势。人口结构的改变带来劳动力供给增加及高储蓄、高投资、高增长的"人口红利",促进了经济快速发展。当婴儿潮出生的大量人口相继到达退休年龄时",人口红利"窗口逐渐关闭,与其相对应的人口负债即将到来。人口老龄化是我国未来的趋势,我国的老龄化同时还具有老年人口规模大、增加速度快的特点。我国在经济发展水平较低时期进入老龄化社会,可能使经济陷入未富先老的境地。文章系统分析了人口老龄化将对我国经济增长造成的影响,并从提高劳动者素质、完善社会保障体系、升级产业结构等方面提出切实可行的应对措施。     

人口城镇化对经济增长的影响机理分析

推进城镇化发展,是中国经济和社会发展战略的一个重大转折.人口城镇化所蕴含的强大内需潜能、集聚效应,是促进国民经济发展和社会进步的重要动力,在转移农村富余劳动力,拓宽农民增收渠道方面发挥了重要的作用.     

人口增长对经济增长的影响作用分析——对广东改革开放以来的实证检验

人口增长与经济增长的相互关系是经济研究中长期关注的问题.本文就改革开放以来广东省的经验数据,通过对人口变动与经济增长的相关分析,以及利用生产函数模型对人口增长在经济增长中的贡献进行计量分析.实证结果表明:人口规模及增速与经济增长呈弱性相关,人口结构与经济增长呈高度相关;人口因素对经济增长的贡献率不高,人口增长率下降对经济发展起到较明显的促进作用.     

黑龙江省人口增长与经济发展

人口增长对一个国家或地区的经济发展有重要影响,充分了解人口增长与经济发展的关系,对推动经济可持续发展起重大作用。黑龙江省地处中国最东北,2000年以来,总人口数不断增加,但幅度不大,截至2012年,黑龙江省GDP总量较2000年翻了4倍多,通过21世纪以来黑龙江省人口变动对经济发展的影响,得出相应结论提出合理化建议。     

中国人口与经济增长影响分析

中国发展到今天,已经积聚起一定的财政力量,每年的财政预算已经达到了相当可观的数额,这些进步,很大程度上是源于之前一直被推崇的简单的资源密集型、劳动力密集型的经济发展方式。中国是一个人口大国,进入21世纪后,中国社会的老年化速度不断加快,人口转变对经济增长的贡献将由人口红利阶段转为人口负债阶段,社会养老负担的加重以及合适劳动力的逐渐减少将会对中国经济发展带来一定的冲击。     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.     

西部地区人口迁移与经济增长关系的演进分析

笔者首先对改革开放以来西部地区人口迁移的规律和特征做出分析和判断,在此基础上运用内生人口迁移经济增长模型,实际测算了近十几年来西部各省区省际人口迁移对经济增长的影响强度。结果显示,各省区的人均产出与人口净迁移率之间存在较高的正相关性,但人口迁移对经济影响的强度有所差别,从整体来看,西南地区净迁移人口的作用更大一些。此外,没有任何迹象表明省际人口迁移伴随有地区间经济发展水平的收敛(趋同),相反,正是因为地区间经济发展水平的不断扩大,才会形成以四川、新疆、陕西等为流入中心的省际迁移人口聚集地。     

新疆人口迁移与经济增长的协整分析

人口迁移带来的大量劳动力有利于解决新疆劳动力有效供给不足的问题,促进新疆经济的发展。选取新疆1990—2007年的数据,用单位根检验、协整检验以及granger因果检验等统计方法,研究了新疆人口迁移和经济增长二者之间的关系,并根据研究结果提出相应的对策建议。     

Population distribution,effective area and economic growth

The usual measure for the factor land is the total area. But total area is a flawed measure because land is of unequal quality. To account for land quality, we use an alternative measure called effective area. Effective area is based on spatial population distribution which captures both natural conditions and human activity. Theoretically, effective area explains economic growth better than total area that biases the measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Empirically on the basis of 40 years of panel data for the United States, an increase of 10% in effective area is associated with an economic growth of 5%, and the omission of effective area undervalues the growth of TFP by 8.1%.     

The Ramsey model with AK technology and a bounded population growth rate

This paper generalizes the Ramsey AK model by allowing the population growth rate to be variable over time subject only to be between prescribed upper and lower limits. Contrary to the standard AK setting, convergence can occur. Moreover, monotonicity as well as an asymptotic balanced growth path equilibrium may arise in the model.     

On the dynamics of a three-sector growth model

Uzawa’s two-sector growth model is extended into a three-sector model, where the labor growth rate is variable and bounded over time. The solution of this economic system is determined, as well as its long-run growth and asymptotic stability are investigated.      

Challenges of population aging in China

Utilizing the most recent census and survey data as well as the new ProFamy method, this paper presents and analyzes the trends of challenges of population aging and elderly living arrangements in China in the first half of twenty-first century. It discusses the serious challenges and related policy recommendations concerning the old-age insurance program in rural China.     

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective

This article examines the relationship between Population Growth (PG) and Economic Growth (EG) in the framework of simultaneous structural equation models. Based on Lewbel (2012), the structural parameters can be estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Identification requires a heteroscedastic covariance restriction that appears in some models of endogeneity, measurement errors and panel data. This study obtains several findings. First, the current and lagged variables of PG negatively and positively affect EG in the short run. Second, PG does not significantly influence EG in the long run. Third, the reverse relations running from EG to PG are weak in both the short and long run, regardless of economic development conditions.