Is insurance normal or inferior? -A regret theoretical approach-

This study considers how changes in wealth affect insurance demand when individuals suffer disutility from regret. Anticipated regret stems from a comparison between the ex-post maximum and actual wealth. We consider a situation wherein individuals maximize their expected utility incorporating anticipated regret. The wealth effect on insurance demand can be classified into the risk and the regret effects. These effects are determined by the properties of the utility function and the regret function. We show that insurance can be normal when individuals place weight on anticipated regret, even though the utility function exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion. This result indicates that regret theory is a possible explanation to the wealth effect puzzle, in which insurance is normal from empirical observation, but it should be inferior by theoretical prediction under expected utility theory.     

基于行程费用的城市物流配送通道选择模型

从时间质量的角度出发,指出行程时间最小化和行程时间可靠性最大化是城市物流配送通道选择的两个重要目标。定义行程费用等于行程时间费用和行程时间可靠性费用的加权平均值。在此基础上,建立了基于行程费用的物流配送通道选择模型。最后,对北京市实际路网进行了实例分析。     

What Makes a Good Cargo Bike Route? Perspectives from Users and Planners

Cargo bikes—bicycles made to carry both goods and people—are becoming increasingly common as an alternative to automobiles in urban areas. With a wider and heavier body, cargo bikes often face problems even in the presence of cycling infrastructure, thus limiting their possibilities of route choice. Infrastructure quality and the route choices of cyclists have been well studied, but often solely based on a quantitative approach, leading to tools such as BLOS (bicycle level of service). With various designs of cargo bikes being used for a wide range of purposes, the route choice of cargo bike users is difficult to generalize. This study combines quantitative and qualitative approaches in order to explore what is important for cargo bike users’ route choice, and how this knowledge can be effectively used for planning. Our results suggest that while some general preferences exist, route choice involves complex dynamics that cannot be fully explained by quantitative measures alone: in addition to understanding “what” is important for cargo bike users, we need to understand “why” it is important. Furthermore, route choice is also influenced by the city context, making a study tailored to the local context essential.     

Diversification preferences in the theory of choice

Diversification represents the idea of choosing variety over uniformity. Within the theory of choice, desirability of diversification is axiomatized as preference for a convex combination of choices that are equivalently ranked. This corresponds to the notion of risk aversion when one assumes the von Neumann–Morgenstern expected utility model, but the equivalence fails to hold in other models. This paper analyzes axiomatizations of the concept of diversification and their relationship to the related notions of risk aversion and convex preferences within different choice theoretic models. Implications of these notions on portfolio choice are discussed. We cover model-independent diversification preferences, preferences within models of choice under risk, including expected utility theory and the more general rank-dependent expected utility theory, as well as models of choice under uncertainty axiomatized via Choquet expected utility theory. Remarks on interpretations of diversification preferences within models of behavioral choice are given in the conclusion.     

基于心理账户和后悔理论的报童问题研究

考虑到零售商存货后悔和缺货后悔的心理效用,文章将心理账户理论和后悔理论纳入报童模型,建立了报童的随机后悔效用函数,证明了期望后悔效用函数的凹性,以及最优购量满足的最优性条件。同时解析地进行了存货后悔和缺货后悔决策权重系数的比较静态分析。结果发现:其最优订购量随存货后悔权重系数增加而减少,随缺货后悔权重系数增加而增加。最后,数值验证了存货后悔和缺货后悔对最优订购量的影响。     

A reformulation of the maxmin expected utility model with application to agency theory

Invoking the parameterized distribution formulation of agency theory, the paper develops axiomatic foundations of the principal’s and agent’s choice behaviors that are representable by the maximization of the minimum expected utility over action-dependent sets of priors. In the context of this model, the paper also discusses some implications of ambiguity aversion for the design of optimal incentive schemes.     

A mixed behaviour equilibrium model with mode choice and its application to the endogenous demand of automated vehicles

This study develops a mixed behavioural equilibrium model with explicit consideration of mode choice (MBE-MC) in a transportation system where fully automated vehicles (AV) coexist with conventional human-driven vehicles (HV). For the mode choice, travellers select among three options, following a logit modal split: driving their private HV, or taking an AV mobility service provided by either a firm or the government. For the route choice, the HV drivers follow the random utility maximisation principle while central agents route the AV passengers following the Cournot Nash (firm agent) or Social Optimal (government agent) principles. We consider two types of travel costs (i.e. travel time and monetary travel cost) to characterise the new features (e.g. expanded link capacity and reduced value of time) of the mixed AV–HV transportation system. We model the MBE-MC problem in a combined mode–route choice framework and formulate it as a route-based variational inequality (VI) problem. We show the equivalence between the VI formulation and the MBE-MC problem, and the existence of a solution to the MBE-MC problem. Then, we modify a partial linearisation algorithm for solving the proposed model. Numerical results validate the equilibrium conditions and show the efficacy of the new model in capturing the features of the mixed AV–HV transportation system. The impact patterns of different parameters on (1) the network performance in terms of AV share and system cost and (2) on the solution efficiency are analysed.     

Excessive banking preference in emissions trading

Firms tend to bank permits excessively, resulting in a lack of supply in the market and uncertainty regarding the ability to achieve the planned emissions target. This excessive banking preference is difficult to explain in terms of rational cost minimization for regulatory compliance. This study provides hypotheses to explain banking preference using cognitive bias concepts such as prospect theory, mental accounting, and regret aversion. The hypotheses are supported by three survey-based experiments. This view of cognitive bias on banking preference justifies the use of active measures to prevent excessive banking, such as market makers and market restrictions.     

Stopping with anticipated regret

This paper analyzes a stopping problem where the decision maker is driven by anticipated ex-post regret. There are two sources of potential dynamic inconsistency, one is arrival of information and the other is changing choice opportunities over time—discarding the current stopping option may change how she stops the game in the future.First we consider a naive planner who prescribes a commitment solution, and illustrate the nature of the inconsistency problem. Then we consider a sophisticated planner who plays backward induction against her ‘successive selves’. The resolution of dynamic inconsistency does not in general allow the use of standard dynamic programming technique. We provide, however, a simple characterization of the backward induction strategy, which is given in a recursive formula.We also provide a behavioral implication, that larger indeterminacy of belief may lead to a more aggressive behavior, that is, continuing the gamble longer, which contrasts to the implication of ambiguity aversion.     

A psychometric analysis of residential location

Traditional housing needs studies focus on the trade-off between location and housing amenities. In most models, mode choice is viewed as conditional behavior in a given setting. New movers, however, select a new environment which includes a house, neighbourhood and transportation system. By using psychometric techniques, the attitudes and preferences of new movers to the suburbs of a large northeast city were analyzed to determine the relative importance in their selection process of the transportation characteristics of the new location. It was found that local and regional transportation and public transit played little role in selecting an apartment. There was no evidence of tradeoffs between travel time and living space postulated by urban economics. Most important to the choice process of these residents were internal characteristics of the apartment and pricing issues. This supports the idea that suburbanites chose to be captive auto users even when equivalent housing opportunities with transport alternatives are available. Implications for public transit and land use planning alternatives for the suburbs are discussed.     

Decision making under risk in Deal or No Deal

We analyse the choices of 399 contestants in the Australian version of the television game show Deal or No Deal. We calculate risk aversion bounds for each contestant, revealing considerable heterogeneity. We then estimate a structural stochastic choice model that captures the dynamic decision problem faced by contestants. To address individual heterogeneity, we nest the dynamic problem within the settings of both a random effects and a random coefficients probit model. Our structural model produces plausible estimates of risk aversion, confirms the role of individual heterogeneity and suggests that a model of stochastic choice is indeed appropriate. We find mixed evidence of greater risk aversion by females. We also examine generalizations to expected utility theory, finding that the rank‐dependent utility model adds non‐negligible explanatory power and indicates optimism in probability weighting. Finally, we test, but are unable to confirm, the existence of an endowment effect for lotteries. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

物流节点最优选址与规模的双层规划模型

物流节点的规划与布局不仅影响着企业的经营活动,而且影响城市的交通运输功能.本文同时考虑物流规划部门及使用者的利益,采用双层规划模型来描述物流节点最优选址与规模问题.上层规划从决策者的角度出发,通过考虑物流节点布局与运输作业、仓储作业成本间的关系,使广义物流总费用最小;下层规划描述使用者的选择行为,对应于最大效用值选择物流节点及对应于交通条件选择运输路线.并设计了该模型的求解算法.     

Optimal highway design and user welfare under value pricing

This paper investigates the optimal design of highways operated under a form of congestion pricing called value pricing. Value pricing involves dividing a highway into free and priced lanes so that in equilibrium the highway effectively operates at two levels of service, with those users placing a higher value on travel time savings selecting the faster, priced route. A tractable analytical framework is developed which allows analysis of equilibrium and welfare on value priced highways when users vary in their value of time. The model is used to characterize optimal toll and capacity policies, as well as investigate the fiscal implications of value pricing. The analysis concludes with results on how welfare changes induced by value pricing are distributed over the population of users when the government finances any funding shortfall through a non-discriminatory taxing mechanism. A realistic numeric example is used to illustrate how the model can be applied to evaluation of actual and proposed value pricing implementations.     

Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators’ as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without insurance innovation completely disappears in the long run. The present paper introduces risk averse agents into an occupational choice model of endogenous growth in which insurance against failure to innovate is not available. We derive a clear negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and long run growth. Surprisingly, we show that in an equilibrium there exists a cut-off value of risk aversion below which the growth rate of the mass of innovators tends to a strictly positive constant. In this case, innovation persists on the long run and consumption per capita grows at a strictly positive rate. On the other hand, for levels of risk aversion above the cut-off value, the economy eventually stagnates.     

基于灰色关联的应急物流最优路径选择

面对突发事故,合理运输路径的选择旨在最大程度的提高救援效率。文中选定运输时间、运输距离、行驶困难度、货物运输的安全性和运输组织的有效性五个指标,利用熵值法来确定各评价指标的权重系数,并运用灰色关联理论建立了应急物流的最优路径选择方法。     

Statistical treatment choice based on asymmetric minimax regret criteria

This paper studies the problem of treatment choice between a status quo treatment with a known outcome distribution and an innovation whose outcomes are observed only in a finite sample. I evaluate statistical decision rules, which are functions that map sample outcomes into the planner’s treatment choice for the population, based on regret, which is the expected welfare loss due to assigning inferior treatments. I extend previous work started by Manski (2004) that applied the minimax regret criterion to treatment choice problems by considering decision criteria that asymmetrically treat Type I regret (due to mistakenly choosing an inferior new treatment) and Type II regret (due to mistakenly rejecting a superior innovation) and derive exact finite sample solutions to these problems for experiments with normal, Bernoulli and bounded distributions of outcomes. The paper also evaluates the properties of treatment choice and sample size selection based on classical hypothesis tests and power calculations in terms of regret.     

新媒体背景下大学生旅游消费行为调查研究

互联网+旅游的兴起,不断改变着旅游者的旅游消费行为.大学生群体作为旅游客户细分市场的重要组成部分,他们的旅游消费行为改变对旅游市场产生重要的影响.文章以合肥师范学院在校大学生为调查对象,采取问卷调查的方式,对其在新媒体背景下的旅游认知情况、旅游行为方式、使用有关旅游APP的现状及期望等进行了调查.通过数据分析显示,大学...     

The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

Coexistence of surplus labor and the Lewis turning point in China: a unitary household decision-making model study

This paper discusses the underlying relationship between surplus labor and the Lewis turning point in the duration of rapid economic growth in China. An agent-based model was proposed for studying the Lewis turning point and labor resource allocation, in which the decision-making interactions were made among the members of a household. This model differs from traditional development economics theory in which only an individual’s behavior is considered. How peasant households allocate their human capital to maximize the utility of a household unit was investigated on the basis of the unitary principle under the assumption of risk aversion. The roles of living expenses, subsidies and income adjustment factors were also considered. Our results revealed the paradoxical phenomenon that rural surplus labor and the Lewis turning point coexist.     

The location of public services considering the mode of travel

By reason of their generally longer travel times, transit users are not so well-served by many public facilities as are automobile drivers. This paper investigates the implications of this fact for the location of a specific type of service, public child day care. A location-allocation model is employed to determine the most accessible locations for a set of centres in Edmonton, Canada, for users of both modes. Transit is found to be capable of providing only 51% of the accessibility of the automobile, at 2.4 times the average travel time. The argument is advanced that in order to reduce the inequality of service to a minimum, public facilities should be located with the accessibilities of transit users in mind. The optimal systems are compared with Edmonton's present system which is found to be spatially inefficient and quite discriminatory in its inefficiency against transit users. This is attributed to the city's piecemeal planning policy and an inadequate understanding of the notion of accessibility. The paper concludes by recommending improvements which would improve our simple diagnostic model to the level of a useful planning device.