Early beginnings of the quantity theory of money and their context in Polish and Prussian monetary policies, c. 1520–1550

In c. 1540 the counsellors of the King of Poland discovered the central tenet of the quantity theory of money. They were the first to maintain that it was necessary to limit the coinage in order to stop prices rising. Their ideas emerged independently and were much more advanced than the views of Copernicus, and they were applied by the Polish government. The article also claims that this policy was, in principle, appropriate to check the rise of prices. Its investigation of economic conditions in Prussia shows that there is no need for a controversy between the proponents of the monetary and the neo–Malthusian explanations.     

House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy

This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices,and economic activity in industrialized countries over the lastthree decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panelvector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006.The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) Thereis evidence of a significant multidirectional link between houseprices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The linkbetween house prices and monetary variables is found to be strongerover a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effectsof shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger whenhouse prices are booming.     

The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan

Given the credit market imperfections in Taiwan, this paper examines the threshold effects in the adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium relationship between housing prices and household credit. The empirical findings verify the potential for regime shifts in the dynamically adjusted relationship between housing prices and household credit. Only when the benefits cover the cost of market imperfections, do housing and credit markets trigger convergence to their long‐run equilibrium. The hidden effect of the limitations on housing and credit markets is to raise the thresholds of the self‐adjustment mechanisms. As a result, economic boom‐bust cycles will be more severe and increase the fragility of financial sectors.     

David Hume on Banking and Hoarding

David Hume opposes banks and favors hoarding. The only bank he reluctantly approves of is a public, 100% reserve bank. Other banks increase money supply and prices, hindering exports and economic growth. For Hume, a 100% reserve public bank would lead to “the destruction of paper‐credit” ([1752] 1985, p. 285), fostering economic growth instead by preventing inflation. Additionally, a 100% reserve bank hoards a large quantity of gold and silver, which is available in case of national emergency.     

Analysis of the Interactive Linkages Between Gold Prices,Oil Prices,and Exchange Rate in India

This study investigates the co-movements and linkages among gold prices, oil prices, and Indian rupee–dollar exchange rates for the time span of 12 January 2004 to 30 April 2015 to investigate whether Indian economic policy-makers should detach financial policies from energy policies. Various econometrical methods such as Johansen’s cointegration test, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, and impulse response were used to explain the co-movements among the variables. We find that gold prices, oil prices, and rupee–dollar exchange rates stay substantially independent from each other, which denotes energy policies and financial policies must be detached.     

The sixteenth‐century price rise: new evidence from Scotland, 1500–85

This article contributes to the emerging belief among early modern economic historians that sixteenth‐century inflation was primarily caused by monetary factors. The Scottish case study reveals a strong relationship between coinage debasement and rising prices, a contention strengthened by the fact that the Scottish experience of inflation was high in European terms, and, in particular, stands at a considerable distance from the English pattern. This study includes the first scholarly examination of prices during the 1540s, and reveals that substantial inflation first emerged during this hitherto neglected decade. Prices plateaued during the 1550s, and rose consistently from 1560 to 1585. Meanwhile real wages declined during the 1540s and from 1560 onwards. This article is methodologically innovative in constructing two baskets of commodities, designed to represent the elite experience, alongside a more traditional basket based on a working household. These reveal the divergent experiences of the price rise within Scotland: rising prices hit the poor harder than the rich due to the high cost of domestic agricultural goods in the subsistence basket and the deflationary impact of wages and luxury goods upon the overall elite basket.     

Usury ceilings and bank lending behavior: Evidence from nineteenth century New York

Few pieces of economic regulation are ubiquitous as usury limits. Similarly, few economic principles are as widely accepted as the belief that interference with freely contracted prices leads to market distortions, and many studies of financial markets find that usury limits negatively affect credit availability. This study shows that when no regulatory authority monitors and stands ready to punish violators of the usury limit when intermediaries and borrowers form long-term relationships, banks and borrowers regularly contract for interest rates in excess of the usury ceiling. Time-series analysis reveals limited effects on credit availability when market rates exceed the usury ceiling. Cross-sectional analysis of individual loan contracts also shows that the positive effect of a long-term relationship offsets the negative effect of the usury limit on credit availability.     

我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究

本文根据1978～2009年我国历年银行信贷量、居民消费价格指数和货币供应量的有关数据,运用协整理论,从短期和长期两方面对改革开放以来我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量之间的动态关系进行实证研究,结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。从总体上说,货币供应量、银行信贷的变化对物价均有明显的正效应,且货币供应量的变化较银行信贷对物价有更大的影响。从短期看,银行信贷的变化较之货币供应的变化对物价又有更快的更为明显的效果,具有更好的时效性。因此,在制定政策稳定物价、抑制和缓解通货膨胀时,应从总体上着眼于货币供应量的调控,同时考虑到时效性,也要关注银行信贷的短期影响,将二者有机结合起来以达到更好的宏观调控效果。     

房产信贷约束下中国房价波动与非住房消费的门槛效应分析

针对城镇居民非住房消费不足与高房价并存的典型现象,运用面板门槛模型对31个省区市2005—2019年的数据进行研究,探讨房价波动对非住房消费的影响并揭示空间差异。结果表明：房价波动对家庭非住房消费既有挤出效应也有财富效应,其中随着房产信贷约束的放松,挤出效应减弱,而财富效应增强;东部、中部、西部和东北部之间的门槛效应是异质的;各地区住房信贷约束水平存在明显差异,对房价与非住房消费之间的异质性关联起着至关重要的作用;房价波动和房产信贷约束并不是导致低消费的综合因素,无法负担的房价以及家庭抚养负担的增加是低消费的综合因素。因此,稳定房价仍是当务之急,房产信贷政策应与房地产市场的发展相适应,以促进消费。     

Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime

Should monetary policy react to stock prices? The answer depends on whether stock prices are good predictors of future economic activity. Using long annual time-series data for the G-7 countries, data going back over 150 years for some countries, we find that stock prices do not systematically predict output growth regardless of the monetary regime in effect. We also find no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between stock prices and output except during the gold standard, when stock price booms and busts had some predictive power for output growth volatility.     

浅析黄金在非货币环境下的货币地位——从美国金融风暴看增持黄金的重要性

自黄金非货币化后黄金的货币功能弱化。但是,当遇到政治动荡、经济金融危机时又离不开黄金作用。这与黄金价值实体的信用与偿付能力密切相关,任何其他资产都无法与其比拟。目前世界上还未设计出更权威的国际货币来替代黄金,国际货币体系又未建立公平、合理、相互制约的货币制度。因此,黄金的货币地位依然存在。     

Do bank loans and local amenities explain Chinese urban house prices?

Based on Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and controlling for geological, environmental, and social diversity, our multi-step estimation suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008. Local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans on housing prices tend to be related to the level of amenities, suggesting that pooling macroeconomic and urban economic data may be important for housing market research in the future.     

Oil and gold price dynamics in a multivariate cointegration framework

This study delivers further insights into oil and gold price dynamics and their relation to U.S. prices and the dollar exchange rate. Previous studies have frequently analyzed this issue regarding the price either of gold or of oil; however, the role of both quantities has not been analyzed simultaneously in a broader context. To tackle this caveat, we use monthly data for the nominal effective dollar exchange rate, oil, gold and U.S. prices from 1976:01 to 2011:11. We carefully analyze the long-run as well as the short-run dynamics and the long-run impact in terms of shocks, applying a cointegrated VAR model. The main conclusion we reach is that although gold and oil are both important commodities, their economic impact in terms of their shocks differs significantly. In the long-run, both quantities seem to be positively related and shocks to the gold price drive the system. In addition, the gold-oil spread is positively related to U.S. consumer prices, which implies a stronger relationship of consumer prices to the former.     

The Resources Allocation Effects of Indonesia's Financial Repression in the 1974–1983 Period

We found that the selective credit policy of the 1974-83 period benefitted the Indonesian economy in a way unanticipated by the protagonists in the financial repression debate. The selective credit policy by favoring the manufacturing and trade sectors reduced their decimation by the overvalued exchange rate created by expansionary macroeconomic policies. The existence of a sizeable tradeable sector when the negative balance of payments shocks hit after 1981 enabled Indonesia to earn enough foreign exchange to service its external debts and thus avoid the type of prolonged economic crisis experienced by Latin America. (It must be stressed that the selective credit policy constituted only one of the policy actions that preserved the economic viability of the tradeable sector.) Since the selective credit policy was not undertaken with the expectation of negative balance of payments shocks in 1980s, its beneficial effects on economic development were entirely fortuitous.     

动态随机一般均衡模型视角下的预期冲击与住房价格波动

本文通过建立加入金融摩擦的消息推动下的经济周期模型得出房产税试点的消息冲击,预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策和预期紧缩的企业信贷政策均对房价具有重要作用,并且消息冲击影响下的住房价格与传统周期模型下实际政策冲击的影响下的住房价格之间具有明显的区别。同时,本文还通过对上述三种冲击进行相互组合所产生的四组混合预期对住房价格的影响发现：当经济人对未来同时产生多种预期时,由多种预期所产生的对内生变量的影响具有相互增强的性质。最后,本文发现在导致房价上涨的预期冲击中,预期紧缩的企业信贷政策是最微弱的,其次是预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策,房产税试点消息预期则是导致房价上涨方面最不利的预期因素。     

The search for seignorage: periodic re-coinage in medieval Sweden

A specific monetary tax ? called periodic re-coinage ? was applied for almost 200 years in large parts of medieval Europe. Old coins were frequently declared invalid and exchanged for new ones based on publicly announced dates and exchange fees. A theoretical framework of how periodic re-coinage works in practice is tested on Swedish coinage. The theory suggests that economic backwardness, limited monetisation of society and separate currency areas facilitated re-coinage. The Swedish experience is extraordinarily consistent with this theory. It is shown that Sweden adopted coin types similar to those minted in Continental Europe during the Middle Ages and the corresponding coinage and monetary taxation policies. Periodic re-coinage was applied with varying frequency from 1180 to 1290. However, monetisation increased in the late thirteenth century, making periodic re-coinage more difficult, and long-lived coins were introduced in 1290. With the end of periodic re-coinage, Swedish kings accelerated the debasement of long-lived coins, which continued until the beginning of the sixteenth century.     

The Synergistic Effects Between Insurance and Credit Markets on Economic Growth: Evidence from China

Insurance and credit markets share some common roles in stimulating economic growth, whether they are complementary or not is worth researching further. Based on the generalized method of moments, this paper investigates the synergistic effects between insurance and credit markets on economic growth in Chinese different regions using an interaction term in the regression model. Moreover, to understand the different economic roles of life and nonlife insurance sectors, we include them into estimation model as well. The results indicate that total insurance and credit markets are substituted, life insurance and credit markets are substituted, and nonlife insurance and credit markets are complementary in the whole region. Specifically, the synergistic effects between insurance and credit markets on economic growth vary considerably across different regions. These findings offer several useful insights for policy-makers.     

保护弱势群体与社会信用机制的构建

利用委托代理理论构建了不对称信用博弈模型,分析信用危机产生的原因后指出,强势部门可以利用其所拥有的市场力在信用博弈中获取不公正的利益。强势部门的失信行为不仅直接影响经济效率,也对社会诚信道德产生负面作用。因此,在构建进行社会信用制度时,必须考虑社会公正问题,要强调对社会弱势群体的利益保护,限制强势部门的失信行为。道德约束与制度规范在社会信用构建中的作用是相辅相成的,加强制度建设、强化道德教育是加快构建我国信用制度的基本思路。     

Bubbles, crises, and policy

In many recent cases financial liberalization has led to a bubblein asset prices. The bursting of the bubble results in a bankingcrisis and recession. It is suggested such bubbles are causedby an interaction of the risk-shifting problem arising fromagency relationships in intermediaries and uncertainty concerningthe expansion of credit. Two important policy objectives areidentified. The first is the prevention of bubbles in assetprices. The second is minimizing the impact of spillovers onto the real economy during post-bubble banking crises. The differentpolicy approaches taken in Norway and Japan are compared.     

货币演进的内在机理及其贬值规律

文章从货币演进的视角出发,梳理了货币贬值的内在规律;在金属货币阶段,贵金属开采业以及海外贵金属流入量影响铸币购买力的变动,政府介入之后,币值往往受到政府法定购买力和货币相对商品数量的影响;信用货币时代,由于货币具有乘数效应,私人银行或政府若过度发行货币会导致货币贬值幅度较大;货币国际化之后,为了获得国际铸币税收益,政府往往采用通货膨胀政策不断对外输出货币,这种制度最终要走向衰亡。