The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

Grain Production and Food Security in Arab Countries

Grains are the most important group of products in the food security programs of the Arab countries. These countries suffer from a shortage of food in general and in particular a shortage of grains. This results from a rapidly growing population and growing disposable incomes. This paper describes the grain sector in the economy of the Arab countries with special attention to its role in the national and regional food security programs. First, output and consumption of grains between 1973 and 1984 are analysed in all Arab countries, with special attention to wheat. Second, the concept of food security is discussed. Food security is defined as continuity of food supply to the whole population and unhampered access to food by all groups of the population. Food security is considered principally as a problem of short-term variability of food production and instability of imports. Food insecurity is thus measured by the size of production and consumption variability in relation to the long-term levels of consumption and production. The standard deviation and the coefficient of variation are used as indicators of the variability. Last, strategies and policies for achievement of food security are discussed. The growing food supply gap in the Arab countries implies the need to increase grain production as an element of major importance in the development of food-security programs. Proper grain policies must foresee increases of yields, reduction of post-harvest losses, and increased capacity to handle and store grain reserves. The establishment of national and regional Arab strategic grain stocks equal to the average magnitude of harvest shortfalls is recommended as one measure of short-term strategy. The long-term strategy, in turn, focuses on development of domestic agricultural production and greater cooperation among the Arab countries.     

Food aid,food policy and the Uruguay round: implications for Bangladesh

The relationship between the effects of food aid and those of the completion of the Uruguay Round of the GATT are studied in this paper, focusing upon the food aid recipient countries, and taking Bangladesh as an illustrative example. It is argued that, among other factors, the magnitudes of these effects depend crucially on the policy environment within the food aid recipient country itself, particularly the government's policy with respect to commercial food imports. It is shown that when the quantity of Bangladesh's commercial food imports is controlled by the government, the benefits derived from food aid are smaller than when these imports are liberalised. Likewise, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round may be expected to have on Bangladesh will also he larger if commercial food imports are subject to quantitative controls than if they are liberalised. The effects the Uruguay Round will have on Bangladesh will also depend on the way food aid donors respond to the Round. If donors reduce the volumes of food aid, either because of reduced food surpluses resulting from lower agricultural subsidies, or in response to increased international food prices resulting from the Round, the losses incurred by Bangladesh will be magnified. But these effects will also depend heavily on whether Bangladesh itself participates in the liberalisations that are central to the Round itself. If it were to participate fully, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round would otherwise have on Bangladesh may be entirely offset by the gains Bangladesh would derive from its own liberalisation.     

Food Aid, Food Prices, and Producer Disincentives in Ethiopia

Although the short-term aims of food aid are well conceived, strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long-term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries. This article examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in Ethiopia over the period 1996–2006. Monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices. Results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets. These effects, however, appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed. A recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges. Food aid shipments that constitute less than 10% of domestic production appear to be benign, but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets. We use a simple policy simulation to argue that production-sensitive targeting, e.g., conditioning food aid on local food production, would help to circumvent disincentive effects.     

“一带一路”背景下的中国大米外交策略

[目的]农业外交是一种古老的外交形式,也是一项崭新的研究议题。大米外交是农业外交的重要内容,"一带一路"建设为中国开展与沿线国家大米外交提供了新契机。研究大米外交的实施路径,有助于提高中国大米国际竞争力。[方法]研究以如何开展大米外交为研究对象,分析了中国开展大米外交面临的机遇及相应实施路径。[结果]中国实施"大米外交"战略面临重要机遇,如粮食外交已成为世界各国外交战略的重要形态。中国杂交水稻技术国际领先优势明显,大米是"一带一路"沿线部分国家的重要贸易产品,中国水稻生产可持续发展环境亟需改善。针对不同国家及地区具体情况,通过大米贸易、技术合作、农业投资、粮食援助等多种形式,积极实施差别化的"大米外交"战略。如对东南亚、南亚主要是增加大米进口和技术交流,对中亚、俄罗斯主要是增加农地投资和劳务输出,对东非、北非主要是增加大米援助和技术输出,对东亚、中东欧主要是增加粳米出口和技术引进等路径。[结论]文章提出了加强金融支持、创新合作模式、把握进口时机和增加种子出口等推进中国"大米外交"的政策建议。     

Impacts of official development assistance on agricultural growth,savings and agricultural imports

This paper explores the links between development assistance, agricultural output growth and imports in 56 developing economies over the period 1974–1990. The empirical model treats agricultural growth and imports, savings and aid as endogenous. The analysis also accounts for differences in macroeconomic policies. The results show that aid had a positive impact on agricultural growth. A robust relationship exits between aid and agricultural imports consistent with the argument that aid helps industrialized countries through market expansion and strengthened trade ties.     

On the resurgent population and food debate

Since Malthus wrote his famous Essay on Population , the world has witnessed great improvements in numerous measures of well–being — life expectancy, infant mortality, incidence of famines and plagues, per capita food consumption as well as real per capita incomes. These improvements have come about during rapid population growth in both industrial and developing countries. Food demand and supply projections suggest that growth of supply will fully meet growth of consumption while grain prices continue to decline. While China may increase grain imports early next century, Central and Eastern Europe is likely to emerge as a major grain exporter and thus help to meet the increase in China's imports.     

Food Aid and Food Security: A Cautionary Note

A simple model is presented to examine the effects of instability in global food aid supplies on foreign exchange expenditures and food availability in recipient countries. When global food prices rise, food aid recipients are doubly affected through decreased availability of food aid, and through higher costs of additional commercial imports needed to make up the shortfall. Empirical estimates of key parameters of the model suggest that countries with a high dependence on food aid may place their food security at risk.
Suit un modèle simple qui permet d'analyser les conséquences de l'instabilité des approvi-sionnements destinés à l'aide alimentaire sur les dépenses en devises étrangères et l'offre d'aliments dans les pays bénéficiaires. Lorsque le prix mondial des aliments augmente, les bénéficiaires de l'aide alimentaire subissent le contrecoup à la fois d'une aide alimentaire réduite et du coût plus éléve des produits importés pour répondre à la pénurie. Une estimation empirique des principaux parametrés du modele suggére que les pays qui dépendent fortement de l'aide alimentaire compromettent leur sécurité alimentaire.     

The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis

The major expansion of U.S. ethanol production raises concerns about the potential detrimental impacts on developing countries’ agricultural prices, farm income, and food security. To assess the sensitivity of maize prices to ethanol production, this study explores the linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices. The econometric approach, based on a panel structural vector autoregression model, captures market interdependencies and the likelihood that developing countries’ responses are both heterogeneous and dynamic. The results indicate that the U.S. ethanol market's impacts on maize prices in developing countries are heterogeneous and that coastal countries are more susceptible to U.S. economic shocks. The estimates also suggest that countries more dependent on food imports and/or receiving U.S. food aid are at a higher risk of being affected by such shocks. Overall, the results indicate that those countries with the greatest sensitivity and exposure to global agricultural commodity markets could benefit from domestic policies and international assistance, which reduce their exposure to impacts from the U.S. maize market.     

警惕我国粮食安全保障能力下降

我国粮食生产"七连增",也出现粮食进口"七连增",突破95%的粮食自给保障线,大规模"进口土地"成为常态。当前,诸多不利因素都在动摇粮食稳产增产的基础,特别是水资源约束、耕地数量与质量下降将严重影响我国粮食安全保障能力。必须调整国家工业化、城镇化空间布局战略以保证粮食资源,大幅度减少耕地占用指标,实行部分农田的"零"占用制度,建立粮食进口多元支撑战略。     

Relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in LDCs: a Sims' causality test based on 35 countries

Previous empirical studies on the relationship between agricultural growth and farm imports in the LDCs suffer from serious methodological defects, which to some extent may invalidate their results and interpretations. This study used Sims' causality test to examine interactions between agricultural output and agricultural imports for 35 LDCs individually. It was found that there was no causality from agricultural output to agricultural imports for a majority of countries under study. For countries where agricultural growth did have a causal effect on agricultural imports, the effect was positive in some countries and negative in others.     

U.S. food aid and American exports to recipient countries during the Cold War

In this article, we test to what extent the food aid granted by the U.S. during the Cold War was strategically motivated and used to promote U.S. interests. Using the data for the period 1971–1990, we investigate whether U.S. wheat aid had an effect on recipient countries’ total import of American products. The evidence we provide suggests a positive and robust relationship and thus it is consistent with the argument that U.S. food aid helped to create larger markets for U.S. producers.     

Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

How can trade partners be chosen when facing food scandals? China's milk scandal as a natural experiment

Using China's milk scandal as a natural experiment, this paper explores whether the countries of origin and export destinations have the same responses to the original country's food scandal. Our difference-in-difference estimation shows that the outbreak of China's milk scandal had asymmetric impacts on China's total imports (increased by 23.4%) and exports (sharply dropped by 65.8%). The results further show that China's milk scandal contributed to import increases from European and Oceanian countries. Moreover, China's milk scandal worsened exports, mainly those going to neighbouring Asian regions but increased exports to Oceania. A product quality index is constructed to explain this finding. Intuitively, consumers' perceived quality of Chinese products declined, and they tended to consume products from other countries. The lower the product quality was with those in China, the lower the perceived quality and safety, thereby affecting demand. During the scandal, Chinese consumers tended to buy high-quality dairy products from Europe and Oceania rather than the perceived unreliable dairy products produced by China or neighbouring countries. We conclude that product quality plays a key role in imports and exports when facing food scandals.     

Forecasting Japan's Frozen Potato Imports

THe U.S. potato industry is the main supplier of frozen potatoes to a rapidly growing Japanese food service market. A two-stage budgeting procedure was employed to estimate total Japanese imports of frozen potatoes and imports by country of origin. Japanese demand for frozen potatoes was found to be own-price inelastic and income elastic. The complementary relationship between hamburger and frozen potatoes suggests that replacement of tariffs for beef import quotas will impact the Japanese potato market. Imports from the United States are expected to increase substantially and remain in constant proportion to total imports.     

中美贸易摩擦对中美农产品贸易结构的影响研究

中美农产品贸易一直是双方经贸关系中的重要组成部分.自2018年4月中美贸易摩擦发生以来,中美双方公布的贸易清单几乎涵盖两国双边贸易所有产品,这一决策可能会使中国农业产业和粮食安全面临严峻考验.本文获取了中美分三次发布的加征关税产品清单,对加征关税产品占中美农产品贸易的份额进行核算,并使用贸易强度指数、基尼-赫希曼指数,...     

Tariff equivalents of nontariff measures: the case of European horticultural and fish imports from African countries

In the context of the Partnership Agreements between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries, this study estimates ad valorem tariff equivalents of European food safety standards on imports of key horticultural and fish products from Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The study uses an extension of the price‐wedge method to account for imperfect substitution and factor endowment in monopolistic competition. The estimated tariff equivalents are 55% and 98% for imports of fresh peas from Zambia to the Netherlands and the U.K., respectively. They range from 39% to 64% for imports of green beans and avocados from Kenya and from 63% to 270% for imports of frozen fish fillets in EU countries from the East African Community. We also observe large variations in tariff equivalents for the horticultural and fish products over time and EU importing countries.     

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

Food consumption patterns in Asia show a trend away from staples toward high protein food derived from animal and dairy products, fruit and vegetables, fats and oils. Such changes in food consumption patterns are due to rising incomes, urbanization, globalization, and modernization of marketing infrastructure. In this article, we analyze the demand for the animal‐derived food group comprising meat (chicken, beef, pork, and mutton), eggs and fish, and derive income and price elasticities in seven Asian countries using the system‐wide approach. Demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry properties were tested and found to be compatible with the data. Our findings reveal that animal‐derived food as a group is a necessity (except in Taiwan) and its demand is price inelastic (except in Taiwan and Sri Lanka). The implied unconditional demand elasticities reveal that, in all countries (except beef in Japan and Taiwan), chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs and fish (except in Taiwan) are all necessities and the demand for all types of animal‐derived food in all seven countries are mostly price inelastic. The cross‐price elasticity estimates are mostly found to be positive, meaning that there is a higher degree of substitutability between chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs, and fish.     

Food Preferences and Ethnicity

Policies to curb food imports in food deficit Sahelian countries have been unsuccessful. Sahelian countries are ethnically diverse and each group has demonstrated strong preferences for cereals and other foods. Yet, research on the consequences of expressed food preferences on food production, consumption, and importation is limited. In this paper, the effects of ethnic identity and income class on food consumption choices were investigated. The results showed that all consumers, use the same criteria in evaluating a given set of foods irrespective of ethnic group, or income class. Ethnic groups and income classes choose a given food basket, which maximizes their welfare, if the same criteria are used in making their food choices.