中国森林保险高质量发展路径研究

通过探讨森林保险高质量发展的内涵,对全国森林保险发展情况深入分析,提出参保率进一步提升难度较大、风险保障水平总体偏低、费率厘定缺乏差异化和动态调整、险种创新推广力度不足、财政补贴机制不够完善等发展不平衡、不充分问题是制约森林保险高质量发展的主要瓶颈。从提高风险保障水平、加大险种创新力度、科学厘定保险费率、推进管理服务数字化改革、完善财政补贴机制这5个方面提出森林保险高质量发展路径。     

基于水库库区特征水位下的洪水保险费率厘定初探

根据"因水库拦洪超蓄导致库区淹没而造成损失的,有关人民政府应当按规定给予适当补偿"的原则,提出在水库库区建立洪水保险的设想。针对洪水保险的核心问题——保险费率厘定问题进行研究,初步提出了历史损失率调查法、抽样损失率调查法和设计损失率分析法3种方法,为水库库区洪水保险试办期洪水保险费率厘定提供参考借鉴。     

基于风险区划的我国森林火灾保险费率厘定研究

随着我国集体林权制度改革的不断深化,森林火灾保险在林业发展中的作用越来越突出。为合理厘定我国森林火灾保险费率,文章通过构建森林火灾风险区划指标体系,运用聚类分析法,对我国进行森林风险等级区划,将我国区划为4个不同的风险等级区。基于区划结果,应用指数平滑法预测我国各省(市、自治区)的森林火灾损失率,进而估算出我国各省(市、自治区)的森林火灾保险费率。研究结果显示:我国森林火灾保险费率最高的是福建省5.62‰,最低是宁夏回族自治区和上海市2.21‰,其中高风险区费率是5.62‰~4.46‰,较高风险区费率是4.46‰~3.17‰,一般风险区费率是3.17‰~2.21‰,低风险区费率是2.21‰~2.16‰。     

我国政策性农业保险水平对粮农收入的影响分析——以湖南省为例

本文从农业保险影响种粮者收入的角度展开分析,以湖南省14个市、州为研究对象,针对农民收入与粮食产量、农业保险的关系,建立聚类模型,在对各市、州进行区域风险分化的基础上,通过经验费率法对粮食单产的保险纯费率进行厘定。结果显示,粮食保险的纯费率在全省的分布情况和全省的自然灾害等级划分的区域分布上大体是相一致的,纯费率较高的地区在湖南省的西部和南部,而位于湖南省东、中部地区的各市其纯费率相对较低,因此,区域粮食保险应给予有区别的保费补贴。     

基于Copula方法的大豆收入保险费率测定:理论与实证

本文基于Copula方法联接农产品价格及单产分布建立联合分布函数,通过Monte Carlo模拟预期收益并测算收入保险费率及单位面积纯保费。以大连商品交易所黄大豆1号期货合约价格、大连及所辖4县区大豆单产数据为基础展开实证分析。研究认为,区域收入保险费率及保额存在明显区域差异;基于期货价格的收入保险无法维持当前预期收益;以期货价格为基础的农业收入保险不能完全取代农业价格支持政策。提出加快构建农产品市价格及单产数据库;健全农业支持与保险政策互补的收入保障机制;依照不同保障水平进行差异化费率补贴;建立多层次的巨灾分散体系的政策建议。     

基于林农视角的政策性森林保险完善与创新研究——以湖南省怀化市为例

总结政策性森林保险投保理赔、保险金额和费率、林业经营主要风险等情况,调查和分析林农对政策性森林保险需求等情况,分析近几年来森林保险工作中存在保险费率高、保障水平低、理赔较难、林业部门缺乏经费保障等问题,提出了调整森林保险费率和赔偿标准,加大财政支持力度,创新森林保险产品,建立以保险为手段的融资机制,健全森林防灾减灾体系,引入承保竞争和考核机制,探索森林互助保险,进一步创新和完善政策性森林保险的建议。     

阿克苏苹果怎破“李鬼危机”

正最近,阿克苏苹果有点烦。据新疆某媒体披露,2017年,阿克苏地区工商局带领当地公安、苹果协会,组成阿克苏苹果维权打假专项行动组,在为期一个月的时间里,前往浙江、上海、广东等主要销售市场,总共揪出的"李鬼"多达5.8万箱之多。这还是突击检查、冰山一角,可见鱼龙混杂之严重!此消息一出,阿克苏苹果顿时成为舆论热点。阿克苏苹果属于地理标志农产品,其保护范围为阿克苏市、阿拉尔市、库车县、沙雅县、温宿县、阿     

品牌“公地悲剧”如何不再上演?

正近年来,阿克苏糖心苹果声名鹊起,成为继山东烟台、陕西洛川、甘肃静宁苹果之后的又一个响亮的苹果地域品牌。但如同所有的农产品地域品牌所遇到的成长烦恼一样,"阿克苏苹果"也面临被假冒的问题,"李鬼"层出不穷。为了维护"阿克苏苹果"的形象,2017年11?12月,新疆阿克苏地区工商局牵头,带领地区公安局、地区苹果协会等相关部门单位赴浙江、上海等地的"阿克苏苹果"集散地、零售终端市场以及北京、广州等     

阿克苏苹果产业发展现状及建议

在积极推进乡村振兴战略背景下,新疆阿克苏苹果产业发展面临着新的机遇和挑战.本文利用SWOT分析法对新疆阿克苏苹果产业发展的优劣势、机会和威胁进行分析,并提出促进阿克苏苹果产业发展的几点建议.     

我国农机保险财政补贴方案研究

农机保险的正外部性与有效需求不足表明了实施农机保险财政补贴的必要性,文章结合现有补贴试点地区实践经验与数据,利用统计优化思想与系统分析方法对农机保险方案中的补贴机型、保险费率与保障金额、补贴比率与补贴金额等问题进行了研究。主要结论如下:(1)农机保险财政补贴的主要机型应该是拖拉机与联合收割机,允许部分地区开展特色农机保险;(2)补贴险种应该主要是交强险、第三者责任险、农机操作人员意外伤害险及农机损失险,综合试点地区费率水平确定了各险种的保费与保障金额;(3)基于财政收入水平、粮食产量、人均收入水平、农业保险补贴比率现状、粮食主产区划分等因素,确定了三类补贴区域及补贴比率,分别为35%、40%及45%;(4)测算了参与率分别在30%~100%情况下的补贴金额为21.7亿元与72.5亿元之间,其中最有可能参与率的补贴金额为42.7亿元。研究结果对相关部门推动农机保险开展与制定农机保险财政补贴政策,具有重要参考依据。     

森林保险保费补贴政策林业产出激励效应评估

基于开展森林保险保费补贴政策的23个省(市、自治区)2014—2018年面板数据,在分析正向激励效应与负向抑制效应下的森林保险保费补贴政策产出效应传导机制的基础上,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与面板数据模型从林业产出视角分别对全国层面、东部地区和中西部地区的森林保险保费补贴政策实施效果进行评估。结果表明:森林保险保费补贴政策存在产出激励效应,且存在1期滞后;同时,森林保险保费补贴对林业产出的促进效果受影响于林业风险,风险水平的上升会抑制保费补贴政策对林业产出的促进作用;森林保险保费补贴政策产出激励效应及林业风险对补贴政策产出激励效应的影响均存在区域差异性。最后,提出实施保费补贴差异化、逐步提升保障水平等建议。     

风险区划下棉花“保险+期货”定价与运行机制分析——以山东省为例

目的 棉花“保险＋期货”模式的出台对保障棉农收入起着至关重要的作用，但随着地区差异性增强、生产成本上升、目标价格统一不变等问题的出现导致该模式的作用有所减弱。方法 文章基于2021—2022年棉花期现货价格数据，运用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算统一费率，运用熵值法对各地级市棉花价格风险进行综合评价，并运用聚类分析法对棉花种植区域进行风险区划。结果 （1）棉花价格风险主要集中于鲁西北和鲁西南地区，专业化程度是产生价格风险的主要原因；（2）修正目标价格和保险费率后，高风险区和次高风险区目标价格高于全省平均水平，保险费率增长速度随保障水平提高而降低；（3）通过构建期货市场、现货市场与保险公司的信息联动机制，拓宽了信息交流的渠道。结论 为更好地发挥“保险+期货”保障农民收入的作用，提出针对不同风险区域，实施精细化产品设计；多方主体相互配合，减轻地方政府保费压力两点建议。     

What Future for Agricultural Safety Net Programs?

The early 1990s held the promise of decoupled farm programs in Canada and the U.S.; however, the potential benefits of decoupling have been eroded by ad hoc disaster programs. This paper assesses the benefits and difficulties of disaster programs relative to traditional farm programs, and proposes gross margin insurance as an approach to safety nets that captures the benefits of both. Gross margin insurance is applied to hogs in Ontario and Minnesota as case studies, with the cost and level of income protection compared. We show that based on simple estimates of actuarially fair premium costs, gross margin insurance compares favorably with programs that have been used to support hog farm incomes in both regions.     

PREMIUM RATEMAKING IN AN ALL RISK CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM1

Fluctuation in farm incomes resulting from variation in crop yield is one of the most significant features in agriculture. Crop insurance is a feasible method by which the farmer can protect his income and his investment from the disastrous effects of crop losses due to natural hazards. This study has attempted to cover two parts. First, it has examined the most important-factors influencing crop yields in connection with the premium rate scheme (i.e. the long-run average yield and the level of coverage). These factors include resource inputs, technology, weather, and stochastic variable. Second, it has developed a refined method of approximating the premium rate. The data used in testing normality were based on the Manitoba Crop Insurance Corporation's annual yield survey covering the years 1916 to 1964. The test shows that none of the annual yield distributions within the area surveyed was normally distributed, revealing that a cartful and exact delineation of a crop risk area is necessary. The findings also show that the cyclical pattern of weather and the upward trend in crop production due to technology were evidently important for the adjustment of the level of coverage and premium rate over time. Additional research relating the effects of weather and technology on crop yields would help to establish a more realistic insurance program. Other aspects should not be overlooked. These include (a) other possible levels besides the existing level of coverage and (b) a livestock or a combined crop-livestock insurance program along with the crop insurance program. The purpose of these additional aspects is to provide farmers with a fuller measure of protection.     

Is There a Viable Market for Area-Based Crop Insurance?

The performance of area yield insurance and farm-level multiple peril crop insurance is analyzed for cotton and soybean production in Georgia and South Carolina. The analysis improves on many previous studies by utilizing actual farm-level yield data and by comparing the two types of insurance products not only for actuarially fair premium rates but also for actual unsubsidized and subsidized premium rates. Results suggest that, even in heterogeneous production regions, area yield insurance may be a viable alternative to farm-level insurance when premium rates for farm-level insurance contain large positive wedges.     

内蒙古自治区森林保险优化策略

内蒙古自治区森林保险自2013年正式启动试点工作以来,虽然森林保险的覆盖率稳步增长,但仍存在森林保险发展极不均衡、商品林参保所占比例偏低、保险产品尚难以满足灾害恢复需要、部分市县配套保费补贴压力过大、现行招标模式未能形成有效市场竞争等问题,这些问题严重制约内蒙古自治区森林保险的发展。为了促进内蒙古自治区森林保险高质量发展,必须丰富和创新保险产品,提高商品林参保意愿;提升灾害风险区划和费率厘定的科学性;调整保费补贴标准,减轻地方财政压力;优化完善招标机制,提高保险服务质量。     

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross‐sectional differences as the county‐level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end‐of‐century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO₂ emissions projection.     

成本收益视角下政策性森林保险供需分析——以福建省为例

周期长和风险高是林业生产的两个显著特点,而政策性森林保险的实施能够帮助林农有效分散经营风险、保障经济收益。自2009年我国进行政策性森林保险试点以来,尽管取得一定成效,但试点过程中仍面临一系列难题,其中关键为林农自愿投保积极性不高、保险公司收取保费成本较高等因素导致的市场失灵。通过构建"负担率"和"综合保障度"两个指标,从供需双方成本收益的角度分析导致政策性森林保险市场失灵的因素,并在此基础上提出相关的政策建议。     

Developing Experience-Based Premium Rate Discounts in Crop Insurance

This article addresses the feasibility of implementing an experience-based premium rate discount system in crop insurance. While adverse selection and moral hazard in crop insurance have been extensively studied in the past, discount systems or bonus–malus incentives have not, to our knowledge, been investigated. Our empirical analysis indicates that a crop insurance discount system could be implemented based on a measure of favorable past insurance experience. The estimated average discounts based on the rating methods developed in this study ranged from 5% to 9% (depending on the crop being considered).