Convergence (and divergence) in the biological standard of living in the USA, 1820–1900

Standard economic indicators suggest that the USA experienced long-run economic growth throughout the nineteenth century. However, biological indicators, including human stature, offer a different picture, rising early in the century, falling (on average) mid-century, and rising again at the end of the century. This pattern varied across geographical regions. Using a unique data set, consisting of mean adult stature by state, we test for convergence in stature among states in the nineteenth century. We find that during the period of declining mean stature (1820–1870), heights actually diverged. Later in the century (1870–1890) we find a type of “negative” convergence indicating that stature among states tended to converge to a new, lower steady state. Only towards the end of the century (1880–1900) do we find classic convergence behavior. We argue that the diversity of economic experiences across regions, including urbanization, industrialization, and transportation improvements, explain this pattern of divergence and then convergence.

Romer revisited: long-term changes in the cyclical sensitivity of unemployment

In this paper we employ microeconomic evidence on the unemployment experiences of American males to evaluate the sensitivity of unemployment to business cycle fluctuations in the late nineteenth century as compared to the mid-twentieth century. Our results indicate a substantial decline in the value of the Okun coefficient (from −0.65 to −0.32) between the 1890s and the 1960s. These findings challenge Christina Romer’s interpretation that the measured decline in cyclical volatility of unemployment over the twentieth century was created by improvements in the statistical record. Rather, it was changes in the underlying dynamics of the labor market over the cycle, most notably the transition to procyclical productivity patterns and the shift from an added to a discouraged worker effect among secondary workers, which may be summarized as the development of modern labor market behavior, that account for the declining cyclical sensitivity of employment and the drop in the cyclical volatility of unemployment over the century.

Anthropometric evidence on economic growth, biological well-being and regional convergence in the Habsburg Monarchy, c. 1850–1910

We examine secular trends in biological well-being in the Habsburg Monarchy circa 1850–1910 on the basis of evidence on the physical stature of recruits disaggregated at the regional level. We find that heights stagnated generally among the 1850s birth cohorts. The secular increase in heights that lasted until the twenty-first century began among the 1860s birth cohorts. Men born in the more developed Czech and Austria areas were as tall as many populations in Western Europe, whereas the men born in the Polish/Ukrainian provinces were about as tall as the Mediterranean populations. There was a 3.3 cm gap between the heights of men living in the core versus periphery of the Monarchy, which reflects a substantial gap in biological living standards. We also consider spatial convergence of biological living standards. Heights did not converge across the different provinces of the Monarchy at all in the 1850s, diverged in the 1860s, and began to converge subsequently. Convergence was more rapid among those born in the 1880s than among the cohorts of the 1870s, even though the average rate of increase in heights was greater in the 1870s than in the 1880s. The convergence was limited to the peripheral regions (Polish/Ukrainian, Romanian, and Slovakian). No convergence was evident among the Austrian, Czech, Hungarian or Croatian areas. By the end of the period under consideration the gap between Austrian and Polish/Ukrainian heights was reduced to 1.5 cm. The evidence on heights is quite similar to the evidence on GDP growth insofar as it points to some positive elements but is by no means uniformly favorable. The Monarchy was not stagnating, or about to collapse on the eve of World War I on account of economic considerations as the Soviet Union did, but it was also not among the high-achievers of the era as the Scandinavian countries or Germany.

Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: a new sectoral data set

Recent studies of economic growth have moved from explaining average trends in long-term growth to study growth accelerations and decelerations. In this paper we argue that the standard shift-share analysis is inadequate to measure the contribution of sectors to accelerations in productivity. We present a modified shift-share method, which takes account of surplus labour in agriculture and accounts for the contribution to growth from expanding sectors. We apply this novel methodology to the GGDC 10-sector database, which is a new data set with annual time series of value added and persons employed for the ten main sectors of the economy. The data set covers 19 countries in Asia and Latin America spanning the period from 1950 to 2005. We find that growth accelerations are explained by productivity increases within sectors, not by reallocation of employment to more productive sectors. Challenging conventional wisdom, productivity improvement in market services is more important than productivity growth in manufacturing.

The fiscal impact of the War of the Pacific

In the War of the Pacific (1879–1883), Chile defeated Peru and Bolivia, and acquired territories that contained vast deposits of sodium nitrate, a leading fertilizer. Chile’s export tax on nitrates later accounted for at least one half of all government revenue. We employ a multi-country model of export taxation in order to simulate the potential government revenues that Bolivia, Chile and Peru could have earned under the counterfactual scenario that Chile did not conquer the nitrate-rich provinces of its adversaries. Our results are that Peruvian and Bolivian government revenues could have been at least double their historical levels. We estimate that, over the remainder of the nineteenth century, Chile’s earnings from nitrates would have fallen by 80%.

The moderating role of institutional networking in the customer orientation–trust/commitment–performance causal chain in China

This study uncovers the ignored role of institutional environment for marketing strategy and customer relationship management. Hypothesis tests in a sample of Chinese firms find support that channel networking strengthens the customer orientation–customer trust/commitment–firm performance (CTP) causal chain. In addition, the results show that government networking moderates this chain in a non-linear fashion. The CTP linkages are most salient when the firm develops a moderate level, rather than a high or low level of networking ties with government agencies.

A critical note on “This time is different”

This article is structured as follows: the first section is based on Reinhart and Rogoff’s seminal papers (Am Econ Rev 98(2):339–344, 2008a, b, Am Econ Rev 99(2):466–472, 2009a, This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009b, Am Econ Rev 100(2):573–578, 2010) and text book (2009), which today constitute the new cornerstones of conventional wisdom on the recurrence of financial crises throughout History, their development and aftermath. We deliver a critical view of this attempt to infer some systematic empirical relationship between debt, growth and inflation and underline the absence of core variables in this historical analysis. In Sect. 3, we go back 10 years to illustrate that conventional wisdom was much different at that time, emphasizing the peculiarity of each episode of the financial crises. This raises the issue of the relevancy of the cliometric approach to identify regularities down through History: so, should we trust cliometricians?     

The antecedents and consequences of manufacturer–distributor cooperation: an empirical test in the U.S. and Japan

We develop a conceptual model for studying the antecedents and consequences of achieved and optimal levels of manufacturer–distributor (M–D) cooperation. We hypothesized that levels of market turbulence, competitive intensity, and the manufacturing firm’s strategic type (i.e., prospector, analyzer, or defender) affected the optimal level of M–D cooperation. We also hypothesized that the level of under- and overachieving the optimal levels of cooperation negatively affects firm performance. The conceptual model is tested using empirical data collected from 295 manufacturing firms in the U.S. and validated using data collected from 104 distributors in the U.S. We also collect data from 255 Japanese manufacturing firms and 98 Japanese distributors. The empirical results support the model’s hypotheses with only one unexpected finding: in the Japanese sample, overachieving the optimal level of cooperation has a greater negative effect on performance than underachieving. We conclude by discussing theoretical and managerial implications.

The Crash of 1882 and the Bailout of the Paris Bourse

The crash of the French stock market in 1882 presented the Paris Bourse with its worst crisis of the nineteenth century. Its structure was similar in key respects to today’s futures markets, with a dominant forward market leading the Bourse to adopt a common fund to guarantee transactions and liquidity. While this mutualization of risk protects clients and brokers from idiosyncratic shocks, it is generally assumed that it also provides considerable protection against systemic shocks, as no twentieth century exchange has been forced to shut down. Using new archival data, this paper shows how a stock market crash overwhelmed the Bourse’s common fund. Only an emergency loan from the Bank of France, intermediated by the largest banks, prevented a closure of the Bourse.

Capabilities and financial performance: the moderating effect of strategic type

The Miles–Snow (M–S) strategic typology has continued to receive attention in the academic business press, even though it has been criticized for not making explicit the relationships between strategic type and ultimate profit performance. Using the market orientation and Resource-Based View literature, we develop hypotheses regarding relationships between M–S strategic type and four firm capabilities (technology, information technology, market-linking, and marketing capabilities), relationship between the four capabilities and performance, and the moderating role of M–S strategic type. An empirical test involves multiple data collections from 216 firms. The study results suggest that there are significant relationships between capabilities and performance if one does not account for the moderating role of strategic type. When strategic type is used as a moderating variable, we find that only certain capabilities had significant effects on profitability. For example, technology and information technology capabilities increase financial performance for prospector organizations, while a different set of capabilities (market-linking and marketing) are positively related to financial performance for defender organizations. We discuss how our findings are consistent with the expectations of the Resource-Based View of the firm. We conclude with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications.

The effects of mid-career military enlistment on civilian career prospects: evidence from the Australian banking industry during World War II

This paper uses personnel records of employees from an Australian bank to analyse the labour market consequences of career interruptions due to voluntary military service during the Second World War. The records contain the employees’ career position and pay histories, and pre-war outcomes are used to control for selection bias caused by non-random enlistment. It is shown that, despite losing human capital during the War, upon their return veterans did not face a wage penalty relative to non-volunteers. Finally, evidence from non-wage outcomes suggests that the absence of a wage penalty was a form of positive discrimination by the Bank.

From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century

The Malthusian “preventive check” mechanism has been well documented for pre-industrial England through evidence for a negative correlation between the marriage rate and the price of wheat. Other literature, however, speculates that the correlation was in fact positive from the early nineteenth century. This paper uses the cointegrated VAR model and recursive estimation techniques to document the changing relationship between nuptiality and the price of wheat from 1541 to 1965. The relationship is indeed positive from the early nineteenth century to the First World War. A simple theoretical model shows that this result is not in fact inconsistent with a stylised Malthusian mechanism, and can be understood within the context of an increasing dominance of shocks to aggregate demand rather than to aggregate supply.

On the road to industrialization: nutritional status in Saxony, 1690–1850

Saxony was one of the pioneer regions in the German modern economic growth. We analyze the Saxon nutritional status to infer the effects of early industrialization on the population standard of living. We find that the nutritional status in the eighteenth century was relatively high and heights fluctuated mainly because of wars. From the 1770s the average nutritional status declined steadily, with the exception of the Napoleonic period, until the mid of the nineteenth century. The decline, particularly accentuated after 1815, is related to the high share of urbanization, the increase in the relative price of food, and the strong dependence on food imports.

Market-based capabilities and financial performance of firms: insights into marketing’s contribution to firm value

While there is recognition that market-based capabilities contribute to a firm’s financial performance, the exposition is largely conceptual (Srivastava et al. Journal of Marketing 62:2–18, 1998; Journal of Marketing 63:168–179, 1999). Using a resource based view of the firm, the present study proposes that (1) market-based assets and capabilities of a firm impacts (2) performance in three market-facing business processes (new product development, supply-chain and customer management), which in turn, influence (3) the firm’s financial performance. It develops related hypotheses and tests the framework empirically. The study also examines for the first time the interrelationship among the three business processes and their impact on the market value of firms. Further, the study examines the moderating influence of two organizational variables—size and age of the firm. Overall, the major contribution of the study is that it offers a process linkage between capabilities, process performance and financial performance. The results of this research will provide strategic insights to managers on optimal customer management, product development and supply chain strategies.

Quantifying the relative importance of export industries in a small open economy during the great depression of the 1930s: an input–output approach

This paper provides a quantification of the relative importance of export industries in a small open economy using new data provided by input–output tables describing the Finnish economy in 1928. The Finnish analysis of the Great Depression of the 1930s has been particularly focused on the importance of foreign trade. Despite the lack of quantified evidence, it is commonly accepted that the export industries had a major role in the economic development. The basic input–output framework is extended into a production–consumption model to produce a more elaborate model that provides a quantification of changes in final demand of some key industries in the economy. Results suggest that even though the role of export industries was dominant, domestic market industries and private consumption also had a significant role in the depression.

Integrating service and design: the influences of organizational and communication factors on relative product and service characteristics

The aim of this study is to identify the organizational and communication antecedents, and evaluate the consequences on relative product and service characteristics, of the use of service-sourced information by product designers during new product development. An empirical study of 121 product design managers demonstrates that a firm’s market orientation is improved by a healthy working relationship between product designers and service employees. Such a relationship motivates designers to use service-sourced information disseminated to them, enhancing both product and service characteristics of the new offering. The authors discuss how communication channels and information content affect the information use of product designers. Product designers value written information most. Information use does not relate to the frequency of receiving verbal or electronic information. Information about product ergonomics positively influences product designers’ perceptions of the information, whereas information on product aesthetics negatively influences their perceptions.

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Commitment to a friend,a service provider,or a service company—are they distinctions worth making?

In two studies, the authors examine three targets of commitment in service provider–consumer relationships and their effects on customer loyalty. The results indicate that service consumers distinguish between commitment to a service company, commitment to an individual in the role of service employee, and commitment to an individual outside of the role of service employee (e.g., a personal commitment such as a friendship). In addition, these three targets of commitment are hierarchically related and have differential effects on various customer responses. The results have implications for both customer relationship managers and researchers studying such relationships.

Influence of customer participation on creating and sharing of new product value

This research applies an institutional arrangement perspective to develop an end-to-end model for the interaction between customers and upstream suppliers to develop a new product to understand how new product value is created and shared. The model is empirically tested by collecting primary data from 188 manufacturers across different industries. The research demonstrates that customer participation affects new product value creation by improving the effectiveness of the new product development process by enhancing information sharing and customer–supplier coordination and by increasing the level of customer and supplier specific investments in the product development effort. In addition, increasing the formalization of the customer participation process enhances both customer and supplier relationship-specific investments in the new product development process. The impact of customer participation on the customer's share of the new product value pie is more complex then is first apparent. Based on the dependence and equity perspectives the results suggest that exchange partners' power (relative dependence) positively influences a partner's ability to capture new product value, but this power is offset by a desire of exchange partners to ensure the distribution of value is “fair” and reflects each party's contribution to the value creation.

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series: historical perspective and future developments

This paper provides a retrospective on the modelling of trends and cycles in economic time series and considers where the research agenda currently stands and where future developments might lie. A brief survey of the early empirical research on trends and cycles is first provided before attention is focused on four papers published in 1961—our ‘annus mirabilis’ of trend and cycle modelling—which we argue have been ‘prime movers’ in various aspects of research in this area. The links from these papers to current research issues are then teased out before the likely future directions of research in both theoretical and applied aspects of the modelling of trends and cycles are considered.

The market value impact of indirect ties within technology alliances

Researchers have typically studied the relationship between technology alliances and market value from a direct tie or dyadic perspective. Yet any given technology alliance is typically embedded in a network of indirect ties created by the alliance partners’ relationships with other firms. We argue that whether an indirect tie enhances or detracts from the market value a firm creates in a technology alliance depends upon factors related to inter-firm competencies at both an alliance- and partner-level of analysis. Empirical analysis of abnormal stock returns reveals support for the hypothesized contingent relationship between indirect ties and value creation within technology alliances. Theoretically, the paper clarifies opposing perspectives in the literature regarding the performance implications of indirect ties and identifies market value as a hitherto unrecognized effect associated with this type of tie. Managerially, the findings improve marketers’ ability to leverage the complex interactions that occur between technology alliances in a value-creating manner.

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