Is Africa different?

Africa's macroeconomic response to external shocks was significantly differrent from that of other developing countries during 1976–1986. Nonparametric tests that correct for differing initial conditions indicate significantly lower economic growth in African economies. Average inflation was also significantly lower, while current-account deficits were larger. Economic policies in African countries are characterized by significantly larger budget deficits and government current expenditure as a share of gross domestic product and by greater inward orientation. African economies in the CFA Franc Zones are distinguished by relatively lower inflation, budget deficits, and less reduction in investment/GNP ratios.     

逆周期财政政策能够控制政府债务风险吗?——理论变迁与经验数据分析

文章基于经济理论变迁,梳理了近代以来西方预算平衡与政府债务理论变迁的主要趋势,探讨了古典经济学年度预算平衡理论与凯恩斯财政革命后的周期预算平衡理论,及其对政府债务风险管理的影响。在此基础上,文章使用跨国面板数据实证分析了发展中国家财政周期选择对政府债务风险的影响,研究发现采取逆周期财政政策的国家能够更好地约束债务风险,该实证结果在不同债务警戒标准下均保持稳健。当前,为了有效约束财政风险,我国应避免进入顺周期财政陷阱,建立可控债务风险的逆周期财政调控机制。     

Saving,investment, fiscal deficits,and the external indebtedness of developing countries

This paper investigates selected aspects of the external indebtedness of the developing countries. It examines both the theoretical and empirical sides of the debt servicing capacity issue, focussing on the role of domestic savings and investment as well as the budget deficits of the public sector in the recent widening of their current account deficits. The results of the study do not support the proposition that increases in external indebtedness among developing countries reflect overconsumption. Capital inflows did not partly or wholly displace domestic saving for the sample of countries examined; rather, the increase in external deficits can in most cases be accounted for by expansion in investment (relative to total output). However, the author qualifies his basically optimistic conclusions in pointing out that countries' ability to repay debt depends not only on whether initial borrowing sustained consumption or investment. but also, if the latter, on the quality of the investment spending.     

Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data

Using panel data for 94 countries in 1975–97, we estimate OLS, 2SLS and GMM regressions to explain IMF and IBRD lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's government budget deficit and its rate of monetary expansion are higher the larger its borrowing potential in the Fund. New net lending of the Bank (relative to GDP) raises monetary expansion but lowers budget deficits of the recipient countries while new net credit from the Fund is associated with less expansionary policies. As for political business cycles, our evidence indicates that new net credits from the IMF are significantly larger prior to elections and that borrowing from the IBRD is significantly smaller after elections.     

Government budget deficits,nominal andex ante real long-term interest rates in the U.K., 1960:1–1990:2

This paper explores the impact of government budget deficits on the U.K. nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates over the period from 1960:1 to 1990:2 utilizing an open and closed economy IS-LM model. An open economy IS-LM model indicates that nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates are affected by the expected rate of inflation, the real money stock, the real government budget deficit, the real government spending, and the real balance of trade.The evidence presented suggests that increases in the U.K. budget deficits do contribute significantly to increases in nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates. This implies that rising nominal and ex ante real long-term interest rates, as a result of high government budget deficits, would crowd out private investment and deter capital formation and long-term economic growth.     

Assessing central bank independence in developing countries: do actions speak louder than words?

My fiscal dominance hypothesis of central bank independenceposits that the size of the government's deficit and the methodsby which it is financed determine central bank independencem developing countries. I measure central bank independenceby the extent to which a central bank neutralises the effectsof increased credit demands by the government on the money supplyby reducing credit to the private sector My estimates show thatlarger deficits and greater government reliance on the domesticbanking system are associated with less central bank neutralisationof mcreased government borrowing from the banking system.     

Public budgetary rules and GDP growth: An empirical study on OECD and twelve european countries

We study the long-term effects of budgetary rules on GDP growth rate and analyse the determinants of the short-term GDP growth dynamics. For both a sample of 19 OECD and a subsample of 12 European countries, we show that, in the long run, improvements in the cyclically adjusted budget balance, as well as increases in the tax burden, have negative effects on GDP growth. The highest effect of fiscal policy on GDP growth would be obtained if the structural deficits were used to increase the market size by reducing the tax burden. In line with Barro (1990), a deficit-financed reduction of tax burden has a stronger effect for European than for OECD countries, because in Europe the government size with respect to market size is too large. Therefore, if GDP growth is a dominant policy objective, in Europe specific actions should redress the 2012 Treaty toward a reduction of the tax burden.     

Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial integration on fiscal policy. Using an unbalanced panel of 31 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009, the paper shows that financial integration has significant disciplinary effects by reducing fiscal deficits and (discretionary) spending volatility. In addition, we find that financial integration affects the composition of government debt and enhances risk-sharing by increasing the share of foreign debt to the total. The results are robust to both de jure and de facto measures of financial integration, different measures of budget balance, and different estimation strategies.     

The german stability program: A quantitative assessment

In the Maastricht Treaty and the European Stability and Growth Pact, it was recognized that high public deficits and debt levels would endanger the success of the European Economic and Monetary Union. In its stability program, updated in December 2001, the German government published its objective to achieve a balanced general budget in the year 2004. The budget of the central government should be balanced in 2006 [Bundesfinanzministerium, 2001]. This paper analyzes the effects of strict budget consolidation policies on important macroeconomic variables like inflation, unemployment and GDP growth. It is shown that a balanced budget as early as 2004 would necessitate high public consumption and investment. These should be financed by higher indirect taxes, whereas social security contribution rates should be reduced to bring unemployment down.     

市场经济国家预算编制改革的主要做法及启示

政府预算的编制改革在我国仍处于起步阶段,这一改革注定要触及围绕预算而形成的现有利益关系格局,改革进程一路艰难。"他山之石,可以功玉",市场经济国家的改革探索为我们提供了可资借鉴的经验。本文在对市场经济国家政府预算改革历程进行概括的基础上,归纳出有代表性的政府预算编制改革的主要做法,基于任何一个公共财政管理系统都应具备的一些基本共性,得出对我国政府预算改革有益的启示。     

审计监督、公众参与和预算透明度——基于跨国数据的实证研究

以在2012年、2015年连续两次参加国际预算合作组织（IBP）开展的《开放预算调查》的201个国家为样本,运用混合OLS回归,研究审计监督、公众参与以及两者互动对预算透明度的影响。实证结果表明,国家审计通过加强独立性、提高审计结果公告能力,可以提高预算透明度;社会公众通过提升参与预算的层次性和实质性,也可以有效提高预算透明度;审计监督与公众参与的互动机制主要表现为审计立项对公众建议的接受度、审计结果对公众阅读的方便度,它们对政府预算透明度的提高都具有显著的正向作用。研究结论对于加强审计机关自身能力建设,完善审计监督和公众参与的互动机制,不断提高政府预算透明度,推进国家治理现代化具有一定的启示意义。     

The rise and fall of deficit in Japan, 1965–1990

This paper investigates the fifteen-year period when the Japanese government deficit (defined as the deficit bond issues to the general budget) rose sharply and shrank to zero. Our main contribution is to differentiate the budget “plan” and the “actual” (ex post) budget in order to distinguish intention and surprise. From 1976 to 1979, deficit bonds were considered to be deliberately increased, because of little surprise (deviations of actual from planned budget) in deficits for these years. The deficit ratio was brought down in the 1980s, mainly by freezing expenditures at the nominal level and waiting for bracket creeps in taxes to catch up. Beyond a trend increase in the 1970s and a trend decrease in the 1980s, the Japanese government acted to pursue a fiscal expenditure fine-tuning.     

Extent and evaluation of protection in developing countries

Tariff protection and nontariff barriers are higher in developing countries than in industrial nations. The tendency of protection to decline with a higher level of development can be explained by the role of import taxes in government revenue, by export pessimism, and by differential treatment of developing countries under GATT.Protection against imports is a burden on the export sector. Trade liberalization has important effects on economic growth and factor productivity. Recent programs of trade liberalization are implemented together with complementary macroeconomic policies to enhance the possibility of sustaining trade policy reforms to be sustained.     

Expenditure and deficit policy: An analysis of the William E. Simon's rules

In a speech before the Mont Pelerin Society, William E. Simon recommended that the U.S. government adopt five rules to achieve stability and economic growth. Two of these rules deal with the budget posture. The rules were based upon Simon's belief that excessive government spending and recurring federal budget deficits significantly contributed to the economic instabilities of the 1970s and 1980s, namely, high inflation, high unemployment, and decreasing rates of production and private capital accumulation. This paper seeks to explore the extent to which fiscal action in these two decades had departed from Simon's recommendations and presents evidence on the link between federal budget deficits and economic growth.The proposals to limit spending and balance the budget are sometimes discussed as alternatives, but in my mind, they are not.William E. Simon. Speech before the Mont Pelerin Society. Hoover Institution, 1980, p. 30.     

当前地方政府融资存在的问题及其治理

文章认为,由于财政分权改革导致地方政府事权与财权不相匹配,使得地方各级政府的财源不能满足现时的地方发展的需求,导致巨额财政赤字。而目前的经济发展模式和中央对地方政府考核以及官员晋升激励模式,使得这一问题更加严重,同时地方政府融资渠道狭窄,导致地方各级政府融资偏离财政监督,宏观调控艰难;地方政府融投资平台开始泛滥,监管体系不健全,导致目前地方政府债务失控;地方政府信息披露机制尚未建立,地方政府融投资信息不透明,使得地方政府的融资风险也难以宏观调控。基于此分析,文章提出了完善法律体系、改革财政分配关系、建立管理机制、完善融资体系和信息披露制度等对策。     

US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?

The 1990s were an extraordinary period for the US economy, both because of declining budget deficits and emerging budget surpluses, as well as high rates of economic growth. This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that high growth rates caused budget improvements, and claims that budget consolidations also contributed to fostering economic growth. We propose the existence of a non-Keynesian effect, where fiscal policy runs counter to Keynesian theory and fiscal consolidation can foster economic growth. We present empirical evidence that an increase in tax revenues reduces the distortionary bias of future taxation and therefore leads to an increase in consumer confidence and consumption. Two supply side effects are proposed: a reduction in transfers reduced labour market pressures and government savings provided liquidity for financial markets, both of which increased incentives to invest.     

Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

The political economy of the ‘recurrent cost problem’ in the West African Sahel

The syndrome of development projects in agriculture and the social sectors languishing after completion of their foreign-aided establishment phase, due to lack of host government budget support, is particularly characteristic of, though by no means limited to, the eight countries of the West African Sahel. A two-year study of the problem by a multilateral working group attributed the problem substantially to donor policies causing recipients to attach a low opportunity cost, only a fraction of nominal value, to project-specific aid resources, as against the high opportunity cost, corresponding to a shadow price well over 1.0, attached to use of their own uncommitted budget resources.     

我国财政可持续性的实证分析：1952—2007

1998年以来,我国连续7年实施积极的财政政策。2008年,为了应对世界金融危机,我国又重启积极的财政政策。积极的财政政策在促进经济增长的同时也使得财政赤字显著增加和国债规模显著扩大,这就不可避免地引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。文章根据政府跨时预算约束理论,利用协整方法对1952—2007年我国财政可持续性的状况进行实证分析。结果显示：从长期来看,1952—2007年,我国的财政是可持续的;从短期来看,1952--1978年、1979—1994年,我国的财政也是可持续的;但1995—2007年,我国的财政收支之间不存在协整关系,财政赤字政策不可持续。     

Do International Sanctions Reduce Household and Government Consumption in Developing Countries?

This paper uses a panel of 30 developing countries over the 1996-2015 period to study the effect that international sanctions have on household and government consumption in target countries. I use a broad set of sanctions covering different aspects of sanctions. The panel model estimates show that sanctions have heterogeneous effect on household and government consumption. Household consumption responds significantly negative to noneconomic sanctions. Government consumption, in contrast, is negatively associated with intensity of sanctions, economic sanctions, plurilaterial sanctions, EU sanctions and U.S. sanctions. Disaggregating government consumption reveals that the intensity of sanctions increases government expenditure on subsidies and transfers, while government expenditure on goods and services is not correlated with sanctions. With regard to health outcomes, there is no clear evidence that sanctions are significantly associated with either life expectancy or infant mortality in target countries.