居民收入、心理预期及其商品房价格波动

选取不同收入水平城镇居民1998～2009年的收入、消费面板数据,考察房价波动对收入和消费的影响,引入宏观经济和房屋抵押效应控制变量,利用房屋租赁价格构造房屋销售价格的工具变量进行实证研究。结果表明:房价波动下城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。     

Investigating the linkage between infrastructure and regional development in India: era of planning to globalisation

The paper tries to find out the role played by economic and social infrastructure facilities in economic development across Indian states over the last quarter century. Infrastructure services have been indexed with the help of principal component analysis. Both parametric and non-parametric estimates are done to assess per capita income disparity. A comparative static framework is developed for testing the nature of movement of the development trajectory in income infrastructure plane over different time spans. The findings are statistically very significant to warrant new regional policies under the overall framework of globalisation in order to remove rising regional disparities in both infrastructure and income. This has a strong bearing on the success of poverty removal policies under globalisation as the poor are regionally concentrated in such diverse and heterogeneous country.     

Recent trends in the condition of children in India: A statistical profile

Global recession has not affected the status of Indian children directly, thanks to the basic insularity of the country's economy, but it has constrained the government's ability to maintain/expand child-related programmes in real terms. This paper analyses recent trends in a large set of quality of life indicators for children in India. While labour market data and nutrition statistics appear ambiguous, other measures such as anthropometric measures, e.g. infant mortality, life expectancy and literacy rates, do not show generalized deterioration and occasionally provide evidence of improvements. The latter, however, show important inter-state variations, with conditions actually deteriorating in some states. Moreover, the improvements observed have been registered under very low absolute conditions of living.     

Explaining The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hump</Emphasis> In Life Cycle Consumption profiles

Summary  This paper documents life cycle (or age) profiles of (log) household income, durable and non-durable consumption for Dutch households after explicitly controlling for time (or business cycle) effects and birth cohort effects. We find that both measures of consumption as well as income is clearly hump shaped over the life cycle. Hence, real consumption per household seems to track income over the life cycle. This empirical regularity is hard to reconcile with basic specifications of the life cycle model. We further document life cycle profiles of demographic and labor supply variables. We argue that part, but not all, of the hump in consumption may be explained by household composition variables. Durable consumption per adult equivalent stays approximately flat until age 60 after which it drops dramatically. This phenomenon may be partly explained by a decrease in work related durable expenditures after retirement. Non-durable consumption per equivalent adult increases steadily until age 55 and stays approximately flat after that.      

Does foreign direct investment promote regional development in developed countries? A Markov chain approach for US states

This paper investigates the effects of inward FDI on per capita income and growth of the US states since the mid-1970s. Using a Markov chain approach, it shows that both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of FDI affect per capita income and growth. The empirical findings suggest that employment-intensive FDI, concentrated in richer states, has been conducive to income growth, while capital-intensive FDI, concentrated in poorer states, has not. Consequently, FDI has tended to be associated with weaker rather than stronger income convergence among US states. It appears to be less important whether FDI has been undertaken in the manufacturing sector of US states or in other sectors.     

城乡居民消费水平的影响因素分析

本文在对影响我国城乡居民消费水平主要因素进行分析的基础上,借助凯恩斯的消费函数表达式,采用1985～2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的时间序列数据和2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的省级面板数据,实证分析了我国居民收入水平对其消费的影响。实证分析结果表明,城乡居民的边际消费倾向都比较接近1,表明城乡居民收入水平对其消费水平有显著的正向影响。实证分析结果也显示,城镇居民自生消费水平明显高于农村居民,表明城乡居民存在明显的收入差距。因此,增加城乡居民收入,特别是增加农村居民收入,缩小城乡居民收入差距对提高我国居民整体消费水平有重要现实意义。     

Do Indian States Mimic,Compete or Interact in Local Public Spending? A Spatial Econometric Analysis

This paper analyses spatial interaction in public spending decisions across 22 Indian states during the period 1980–1981 to 2014–2015. In particular, we estimate interactive hypotheses for different proximities of states using a spatial panel data approach. The empirical results support strong spatial interaction and yardstick competition in public spending. Interactive behavior among the states has been found to be consistent and conditional on per capita income, fiscal transfers, infrastructure, literacy and population density. Interaction arising from yardstick competition significantly affects public spending decisions. The present study realizes the need for a well‐developed and comprehensive network to strengthen the interdependence in public spending among the states for higher welfare gain.     

收入和幸福间关系研究

文章采取理论综述的方法,引用既有的调查数据进行实证分析.在对幸福界定和测量进行简要回顾的基础上,首先对收入和幸福间关系的三个阶段研究进行了详细阐述,讨论了收入的增加到底能否引起幸福水平的提高这一问题.接着,文章结合经济学和心理学分析,引入社会性比较、适应水平理论和期望水平理论等概念,对上述结论给出了相应的解释.     

持久收入理论与我国城乡居民消费——基于省际面板数据的检验

本文运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验了持久收入理论的三个假设。结果发现,我国城镇和农村居民消费与其持久收入均显著相关。我国城镇居民消费与其暂时收入显著相关;安徽、黑龙江、吉林、陕西、甘肃、青海、云南和海南等省农村居民的暂时收入的边际消费倾向等于零,而其他省份的不等于零。"λ假说"检验表明,我国城镇和农村居民消费对当期收入都是过度敏感的,导致PIH的局限性。选择误差修正项的绝对值表征不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费的影响,计量结果显示,不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费产生了明显的负面影响。农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度大于城镇居民。     

我国居民收入与资产价格关系的实证研究

居民收入与资产价格之间到底存在怎样的关系是理论界广泛关注的问题。在中国当前特殊情况下,房地产和股票分别是两大具有代表性的实体资产与虚拟资产。本文基于较大期限跨度的数据,使用Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,对居民收入和资产价格之间的关系进行实证研究。结论表明,居民收入提高不会导致实体资产价格上升,但会对虚拟资产价格产生一定的影响。基于此,现阶段国内要稳步发展房地产市场和股票市场,引导投资者合理投资,在提高居民收入时要注意促使居民扩大消费而不是追加投资。     

Broadcast Advertising and U.S. Demand for Alcoholic Beverages

Quarterly data for 1977-1994 on alcohol consumption and advertising are used to estimate a differential demand system, including explanatory variables for broadcast advertising and print advertising. The model explains the growth rate of per capita consumption dependent on explanatory variables for prices, real income, demographic changes, and real advertising by media and beverage. Empirical results also are reported for total consumption of pure alcohol. The results for the three beverages and total alcohol indicate that advertising has little or no effect on demand. The empirical evidence thus supports the notion that regardless of media, advertising affects mainly brand shares.     

WAGNER'S LAW: AN ECONOMETRIC TEST FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1960‐2006

The main objective for this paper is to test Wagner's law by analysing the causal relationships between real government expenditure and real income for South Africa for the period 1960‐2006. The paper tests the long‐run relationship between the two variables using the autoregressive distributive lag approach to cointegration suggested by Pesaran et al. We use the Granger non‐causality test procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto, which uses a vector autoregression model to test for the causal link between the two. Evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long‐run relationship between government expenditure and income. However, support for Wagner's law would require unidirectional causality from income to government expenditure. Therefore, cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner's law, but not sufficient. This research does find a long‐run relationship between real per capita government expenditure and real per capita income. Results for the short‐run causality find bidirectional causality. On the basis of empirical results in this paper, one may tentatively conclude that Wagner's law finds no support in South Africa.     

Toepassing van de wet van Pareto op de lage inkomens

Summary Pareto’s Law may be applied only to the upper 50 per cent. of the incomes. In order to render it also applicable to the lower 50 per cent., the cumuled per cents. of the income recipients in this range must be calculated from poorest to richest. This can be established by making an examination of empirical material, and by comparing the log-log. scale with the log-normal distribution. The 10 per cent. highest incomes are higher, and the 10 per cent. lowest lower, than would follow from a log-normal distribution. Here, special factors are apparently exerting an influence upon the income distribution. The deviations from the log-normal distribution and the dispersion within this distribution are characteristic of a certain income distribution and are, therefore, important.     

不同收入等级城镇居民的消费结构变动趋势研究

由于不同收入人群的消费者行为不一样,所以他们的消费结构及其变动也会不一样,因而使用宏观数据研究居民的消费结构变动并不准确。本文对我国城镇居民七个不同的收入等级在2002～2007年期间的消费结构变动进行了分析和研究,这样更能真实和准确地反应他们消费结构的变动与差异,该研究对扩大我国内需和产业结构的调整政策制定有一定的参考价值。     

Does income affect fertility or does fertility affect income?

"This paper tests for the dynamic causal connection between real income per capita and the birth rate for a subset of developing countries. These countries are Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Uruguay. Our empirical findings show that, for the historical period under review, in several countries real income per capita affected the birth rate. Virtually no evidence is found to support the hypothesis that the birth rate affected real income per capita."     

A re-examination of the demand for money in Nigeria

Summary and Conclusion This paper reexamines the demand for money in Nigeria and finds the real income and the expected rate of inflation to be important independent variables that explain over 80 percent of the variation in the real cash balance. The study shows that, in view of the low per capita income of Nigerians, permanent income and measure income are largely the same. An important finding of this study is that, because their price level is (in large part) exogenously determined, the monetary authorities in Nigeria should be more desirous of following the constant growth rate rule. A very substantial part of the country's export (that is, oil) is especially prone to inflationary pressures due to the ease with which international inflation can be transmitted. Since the authorities can control money stock, this ‘rule’ is indicated from both the theoretical and the empirical standpoint.     

Dynamics of Income Distribution across Chinese Provinces during 1978–98

This study attempts to examine the growth pattern of China's economy during 1978–98 from the perspective of income distribution dynamics. Motivated by the model of dynamic distribution, a transition matrix is derived from a panel of ratios of provincial real incomes to national averages across 30 provinces over 1978–98. The transition matrix is used not only to reveal the transitions of provinces between the states of income over time, but also to predict whether there is a tendency across provinces to converge in real income per worker in the long run. This study finds evidence of a slight reduction of income dispersion across Chinese provinces over 1978–98. However, the slight reduction of income dispersion is not strong enough for the provinces to converge to mean income. But there is a strong tendency to converge across provinces within regions and it is evident that, in the eastern region, poor provinces caught up with rich ones over the period under study. The long-run distribution indicates that there will not be a tendency to converge in real GDP per capita across provinces in the long run.     

重庆市农村居民收入对消费的影响研究

在概述国内外关于收入与消费关系的研究现状的基础上,以重庆市为研究对象,分析收入在影响农村居民消费方面的作用.通过运用实证分析方法,分析不同收入阶层对消费的需求,发现收入差距是制约消费水平的重要因素.因此,促进农民增收,适当缩小不同收入阶层的收入差距,对于增加消费具有重要的意义.     

Short‐run marginal medical costs from booze and butts: Evidence from the states

This article uses a panel data set of U.S. states over the 1980 to 2007 period to estimate the demands for medical care, cigarettes, and beer. The estimation process generates own‐price, income, and cross‐price elasticities for all three goods. Implied per capita beer and cigarette consumption elasticities of per capita health care expenditures, suggested by our baseline estimates, are 0.83 and 0.14, respectively. These results are robust to a number of specification tests. Simulations suggest that yearly marginal medical costs amount to approximately $12 per bottle and 27 cents per cigarette in the short run (in 2012 dollars). These results are likely to be driven by the much larger corresponding increases in the consumption of binge drinkers and heavy smokers.

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Household and market production of families in a late nineteenth century American city

Urban families in the late nineteenth century depended upon their children as their most important source of labor income apart from the male head of house-hold. This paper explores the determinants of the labor force participation of children over 10 years old within the context of the economic theory of household and market production, using microlevel data from 1880 Philadelphia. The father's income and unemployment, the presence of the mother or father, boarders, servants, older and younger siblings, parents' literacy, and ethnicity, among other variables, are used in a probit analysis of the labor force participation of children. The results validate the economic theory of household and market production demonstrating, in particular, substitution between mothers and their daughters and the role of comparative advantage in family decisions concerning the allocation of their members' time. Ethnic differences were only important for daughters.