普京新政与中俄合作

打造强有力的经济、强有力的国家政权、强有力的国家军队是普京新任期的既定目标。与2000年相比,2012年的普京面临着同样复杂却完全不同的问题。普京能否和如何超越自己,以怎样的路径实现持续增长、通过改革和创新提升经济与社会进步的质量,某种程度上决定着俄罗斯能否进入新的发展期。新任期内普京将进行稳健的政治体制改革、在确保经济增长的前提下发展创新经济、继续推行平衡务实外交,总体上保持近年来俄罗斯内政外交的延续性。     

Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?

It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the “front-runners” in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the “divergent expectations” hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican fund Net Asset Values (mainly driven by Mexican investors) dropped first and/or faster than Mexican country fund prices (mainly driven by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community.     

Trade policy in Mexico

This paper provides an evaluation of the trade policies applied in Mexico in the last quarter century (1956–1982). It examines the policies in three well-defined periods: (1) 1956–1971, considered to be a period of relative stability following the rapid inflation and devaluations of the first post-war decade, though characterized by increasing overvaluation of the peso; (2) March 1972–December 1976, beginning with the acceleration of government spending under President Echeverria and ending with the devaluations of the peso; (3) December 1976–December 1982, covering the Presidency of José López Portillo. For each period, the author discusses macroeconomic policy, trade policy developments and changes in Mexican exports and imports and their contribution to industrial growth. Having demonstrated the interdependence of macroeconomic and trade policies, the paper concludes with recommendations for policy reform, e.g. for remedying macroeconomic disequilibria, reducing price distortions and reforming trade policy, with a view to moving towards an outward-oriented development strategy in Mexico.     

The impact of removing corn subsidies in mexico: A general equilibrium assessment

This paper evaluates the impact of removing corn subsidies on the Mexican economy. More specifically, this paper employs a computable general equilibrium model of Mexico. The model will first simulate the economy's activity under the present conditions. Next, a simulation is conducted under the assumption that the present corn subsidies are reduced. The results are quite revealing. They indicate that while all income classes are initially made worse off, there is an increase in government income. These transfer payments could be targeted to displaced workers as well as the working poor who face inflationary pressures due to rising food costs. These findings also indicate that a decrease in subsidy levels will lead to a marked increase in saving and, consequently, economic investment.     

North American economic integration and industry location

Does regional economic integration affect the location of economicactivity inside countries? Discussed in this paper is recentacademic literature on whether the movement towards free tradein North America has influenced the spatial organization ofproduction in Canada, Mexico, or the United States. In Mexico,closer economic ties with the United States appear to have contributedto a contraction of employment in the Mexico City manufacturingbelt, a rapid expansion of manufacturing employment in northernMexico, and an increase in the wage premiums paid to skilledworkers. The effects of economic integration on industry locationin Canada and the United States seem to have been much weaker.One exception to this finding is US cities on the Mexican border,whose employment growth is strongly positively correlated withexport production in neighbouring Mexican regions. The implicationof a possible hemispheric free-trade agreement are also discussed.     

Monetary policy,exchange rate targeting and fear of floating in emerging market economies

This paper investigates whether central banks in emerging markets systematically respond to exchange rate movements. It estimates a structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy with an exchange rate-augmented Taylor-type rule for four countries. The results show that over the entire sample-period, South Africa and Mexico do not target the exchange rate, whereas Indonesia and Thailand do. In the 1980s and 1990s, all four countries targeted the exchange rate but in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the Mexican peso crisis, and the end of apartheid, they all liberalized their exchange rate regimes, shifting toward inflation targeting.     

促进低碳经济发展财税政策的国际实践及启示

文章论述了欧盟、美国、日本等经济发达国家在促进低碳经济发展方面的财税政策,分析其特点,并结合我国国情,从建立绿色预算制度、加大财政投入力度、改革税收制度、完善税收优惠政策以及加强制度创新、提高财税政策效果等方面提出了促进低碳经济发展的对策建议。     

泰州产业集群发展战略思考及其对策研究

产业集群是地理位置上集中的某一产业及其相关产业和机构基于专业化分工与协作而形成的聚集体。当今世界,产业集群的成长构成区域产业发展的新亮点和主旋律,集群经济成为推动世界经济发展的新力量。产业集群这种经济发展形式极大地促进了地方区域经济的发展,一些经济发展比较快的区域,产业集群的支撑作用是十分巨大的。本文通过对泰州产业集群发展现状分析,指出:要着重围绕培育十大产业集群、打造四大产业基地,从发展战略选择、政府行为选择、企业行为选择等方面,提出了培育和提升泰州产业集群的对策建议。     

日本经济走势分析

千年伊始，饮受衰退洗礼的日本经济有了一定的起色，于是人们便对日本经济的走势产生出各种各样的判断。归纳起来有3种看法，并各有各自的根据，对此进行深入分析有助于我们对日本经济走势做出正确的判断。决定日本经济势的关键因素是日本政府采取的主要政策、措施及其效果和美国经济的走势。经过分析并结合日本经济目前的状况，得出的结论是：目前日本经济将难以增长并可能再次陷入衰退。     

欧债危机下中国的政策选择和发展机遇

欧洲主权债务危机从开始浮出水面,到发展、蔓延、危机升级,已持续了整整两年,而这场危机的影响力非但没有缩小,反而从欧元区边缘国向核心国扩散,导致整个欧元区经济陷入了一片恐慌之中。虽然中国并没有受到直接影响,但欧洲经济的颓势导致了我国对欧洲出口量的大幅度减少、大量热钱涌入等等问题,这就决定了我们不能袖手旁观,无动于衷。本文将尝试分析在这场危机中我国应采取的政策措施,以及为如何从中看到新的发展机遇提出看法,从而既达到为欧洲主权债务危机国提供援助以达到缓解世界经济动荡的目的,又尽可能使国内经济保持稳定态势。随着中国在国际政治、金融、贸易等地位的不断提高,我国所持有的态度、所采取的行动,也必将受到其他国家的广泛关注和热议。     

普京新政与俄罗斯经济政策走向

第三次当选总统的普京将立足于新型工业化道路,通过产业政策主导经济发展,大型国有企业与金融机构仍将成为关键性力量,国家垄断资本主义政策仍将延续,国有制将长期存在于自然垄断、军事工业与原材料产业。同时,普京也将试图通过减少管制和私有化来降低风险。再工业化定位、消除财政赤字的压力、欧美债务危机的警示、中产阶级的快速崛起,决定了普京政府的民粹主义色彩将不得不有所淡化,政策重点将主要围绕培育人力资本与发展高科技产业而展开。经济政策能否推动创新发展与结构转型,取决于一系列条件,其中最为重要的,是政治制度能否顺利实现转型。     

国际热钱流人及对中国经济的影响

作为短期投机资本的国际热钱是导致历次金融危机的主要元凶之一。无论是墨西哥金融危机还是亚洲金融危机都给世界人民敲晌了热钱扰害经济的警钟。由于热钱的隐蔽性和流动性往往很难把握其来龙去脉,给各国监管当局造成很大的困难。中国经济的稳定快速发展使人们担忧热钱会搅动中国经济健康发展的局面。文章首先就热钱对经济可能产生的影响进行理论分析,然后利用计量经济模型分析了影响热钱进入中国的因素以及由此给我国的相关经济变量所造成的影响,并针对热钱带来的负面影响提出趋利避害的应对建议。     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.     

论经济手段视角下的循环经济发展

在我国,发展循环经济,已经引起了各级政府的高度重视和社会的广泛关注。本文分析了发展循环经济过程中存在的问题,提出了建立和制定各种相关的经济制度和政策,运用税费、投资、消费、信贷、价格等经济手段,促进循环经济发展的对策。     

新疆外向型经济发展的测度与思考

发展外向型经济是新疆全面建设小康社会的重要内容,也是"十一五"规划的重大问题。无论是从全球经济一体化的大背景还是立足自身的区情,新疆的经济发展都必须要走外向型的发展道路。本文将通过对新疆外向型经济发展水平的测定,找出其在发展外向型经济过程中存在的问题,进而提出相关的对策和措施。     

基于产业、文化与行政三维视角的“广佛肇”经济圈一体化研究

广州、佛山以及肇庆在地理、经济、文化等方面都有着密切的联系。随着经济的发展,三个城市间的联系将会愈发密切,在新形势下,"广佛肇"经济圈的形成发展是发展珠三角一体化的重要途径。广州与佛山是珠三角经济区的核心,对于"广佛肇"经济圈一体化的发展有着深远的意义。本文着重分析"广佛肇"经济圈一体化的现状,制定一体化的目标,并从中发现存在的问题,针对问题对"广佛肇"经济圈一体化的发展提出合理建议。     

唐山市低碳经济发展的路径选择与对策研究

发展低碳经济、推进绿色经济发展,已成为金融危机之后实现人类健康生存、经济社会持续发展的必然选择。本文是在前期对唐山低碳经济发展现状、问题、机遇及挑战的分析的基础上,提出未来唐山低碳经济发展的路径,通过技术、行政、市场机制的作用,实现能源低碳化及各行业低碳化,构建低碳绿色产业体系及其实现的具体对策措施。     

Money Transfers among Banked and Unbanked Mexican Immigrants

The recent recognition of the matrícula consular as an acceptable form of alien identification by financial institutions has increased undocumented Mexican immigrants' access to U.S. banking services. Usage of the banking system's low-cost wiring and money-transfer services may encourage Mexican immigrants to save and potentially transfer more money to Mexico. We use data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP107) to examine the hypothesis that immigrants with access to banking services in the United States between 1970 and 2004 sent back more funds to Mexico than their unbanked counterparts. We find that banking among Mexican immigrants in our sample is limited. While having a U.S. bank account does not appear to significantly raise monthly remittance flows by Mexican immigrants, it does help boost the amount brought back home. Thus, our analysis sheds light on the potential effects of matrícula cards on the future flow of remittances to Mexico.     

产业升级视角下日本泡沫经济反思

由于日本金融体系的缺陷和基础研究的薄弱导致其产业结构从制造业向信息业升级失败,这使得其在贸易顺差快速扩大下所产生的过剩流动性失去产业投资渠道,最终必然涌向房地产和股票市场,从而造成日本泡沫经济的产生。所以,日本20世纪80年代泡沫经济的出现有其历史必然性,而错误的宏观经济政策不过是经济泡沫产生和破裂的加速器而已。尽管中国目前的情况与当年日本有相似之处,但一些深层次的不同让中国不会重蹈日本覆辙。     

广西发展循环经济型生态农业的路径与对策

2010年广西全面完成了农业和农村经济第十一个五年规划。但作为一个农业欠发达区域,广西的农业和农村生态环境问题还十分突出,因此,无论从理论方面来看,还是从现实方面来看,广西发展循环经济型生态农业都十分重要。广西有许多发展循环经济型生态农业的有利条件,从技术层面上看,可从农产品种养、农产品加工、农产品市场三方面来推进,同时辅以资金、技术以及法律法规、制度和政策等方面的强有力支撑,这样,广西的农业和农村生态环境问题就能得到进一步的改善。