我国开放式和封闭式基金绩效比较的实证研究

近年来我国新设立的开放式基金远远多于封闭式基金。在数量迅速增长的情况下，开放式基金能否取得优于封闭式基金的绩效受到市场的普遍关注。本文选取了10家基金管理公司，每家公司各选一只开放式基金和一只封闭式基金，从收益率、风险调整后的绩效和择时能力三个方面比较了2004年1月至2005年4月期间开放式基金与封闭式基金的绩效。实证结果显示，在我国目前情况下，开放式基金的绩效略高于封闭式基金，但并不存在显著的差异．     

基金绩效差异与基金投资者行为分析

本文以2004～2006年的股票型开放式基金为研究对象,比较和考察了中外合资基金管理公司所管理的开放式基金（“合资开放式基金”）和中资基金管理公司所管理的开放式基金（“中资开放式基金”）。研究发现：与合资开放式基金相比,机构投资者更愿意赎回中资开放式基金,而且“赎回之谜”只在中资开放式基金的个人投资者中存在,在合资开放式基金的机构投资者中甚至还表现出了与理性预期相一致的经营绩效与赎回率之间的显著负相关关系。     

海外基金投资者如何选择基金公司

截至2012年1季度末,我国已有71家基金管理公司,管理着市场上900余只共同基金。投资者面对如此众多的基金进行选择时,不仅要了解基金产品和基金经理,也应该对管理该产品的基金公司有充分的了解。未来几年内我国基金公司有望超过100家,投资者如何评价这些     

我国指数基金与一般股票投资基金间投资绩效比较与分析

1999年我国首次推出了普丰、兴和、景福等3只封闭式指数基金,并于2002年11月推出了我国第一只开放式指数基金——华安上证180指数增强型基金,拉开了我国指数基金发展的序幕。指数基金存在的理论基础在于"有效市场假说"。该理论认为市场是有效的,一切证券的价格均反映了所有信息,因此,试图通过基金经理人的积极主动管理以获得超过市场平均收益的努力是徒劳的,认为以复制市场指数寻求市场平均收益的指数基金是最佳基金投资选择。国外的大量统计数据表明,大多数基金主动管理基金未能战胜市场。为了检验我国指数基金的绩效表现,本文共挑选了7只指数基金和9只开放式股票基金进行实证分析。然而从实证分析结果来看,我国的指数基金并未较开放式股票基金表现出绩效优势,甚至于总体上,一般开放式股票基金绩效较指数基金要好。     

基于DEA方法的封闭式基金相对绩效和持续性研究

我国封闭式基金的发展已经有些时日,基金的业绩和发展的持续性是基金投资者以及基金管理公司极为关注的问题,目前的基金评价方法存在很多不足.本文尝试建立数据包络分析(DEA)的BCC模型,通过选取投入和产出指标,对上证25只封闭式基金进行相对绩效评估和持续性分析.     

FOF猎取“最牛基金”国泰君安君得益业绩最“给力”

近5年里，基金行业迅猛发展，产品数量从133只扩容到800多只。在公募基金产品迅速扩容，业绩分化加剧的环境下，FOF型券商理财产品凭借其“优选基金”的专业能力，已经成为投资者基金投资的最佳工具。     

中国开放式基金任重而道远

开放式基金在2001年以前,对大多数投资者而言都是一个十分陌生的名词。随着2001年9月华安基金公司发行了第一只华安创新证券投资基金以来,国内现已经陆续发行了十几只开放式基金,开放式基金成为了我国证券市场一道靓丽的风景。在证券市场低迷的时候,给广大的投资者带来了一种全新的投资理念,同时也大大丰富了我国投资者的资产选择品种。     

对开放式基金税收管理的建议

投资基金从封闭式到开放式的变迁，是一种市场的选择。20世纪90年代以来，开放式基金与封闭式基金资产规模之比达到20：1，成为投资基金的主要存在方式。开放式基金特有的赎回机制提高了投资者的地位，基金管理公司的关注点由基金单位净值转向基金规模上，基金管理公司的角色由投资公司转向金融服务公司。1998年6月，我国封闭式基金开始在证交所挂牌交易。     

2011年中国证券投资基金行业发展简述

自1998年以来,中国证券投资基金行业已走过了13个年头。纵观基金行业的发展历程,基金业总体发展速度较快,在资本市场的影响力日趋增强,成为最重要的机构投资者之一。截至2011年9月30日,我国共有基金管理公司67家,管理基金867只。基金资产净值合计21310亿元,基金份额规模24506亿份,基金持股市值占A股市场流通市值比重约为7.9%,占总市值比重约为6.1%。在这13年的发展历程里,我国基金经历了2001～2005年的五年熊市,也经历了2006～2007年的牛市(资产规模年增长分     

封闭式基金折价与管理绩效的实证研究

本文基于管理绩效理论,对我国封闭式基金折价现象进行实证研究。管理绩效理论认为,封闭式基金折价反映了投资者对于基金未来过低的管理能力的理性预期,未来管理绩效越差,折价越大。本文使用了多种基金绩效度量模型,分别采用引入时间哑变量和除去时间均值混合OLS回归方法以及Fama-Macbeth横截面回归方法,验证了折价率和未来管理绩效之间的关系。结果显示,封闭式基金折价和溢价反映了市场对于基金未来管理绩效的预期;当期折价率和未来管理绩效之间存在显著的正向关系,尤其在未来一个季度的时间内;这种关系不受非同步性交易效应和基金异质性的影响。本文同时发现,折价率对于未来管理绩效的解释能力强于过去的管理绩效对于未来管理绩效的解释能力。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.