Introduction: Policy and prophecy in the Five-Year Outlook on Science and Technology

The efforts of the National Science Foundation to gather inputs to and commentary on the Five-Year Outlook are recounted. The respective roles of the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of Science and Technology Policy are discussed, as is the change in approach to the Outlook, and to science policy in general, between the Carter and Reagan administrations.     

The Five-Year Outlook as metaphor for technology forecasting and social change

The National Science and Technology Policy Organization and Priorities Act of 1976, which mandated the Five-Year Outlook, is considered as a doctrine of anticipation to coalesce the federal bureaucracy in order to engage the future and to determine, as a community, its long-term priorities. The Outlook is thus a symbol of a broader process of managing technology to produce, over time, socially satisfactory outcomes that will not be squeezed out by short-term needs. The article argues that to transfer preparation of the Outlook back to OSTP would add immensely to the stature and influence of the report.     

Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

Policy dimensions of the second Outlook: The AAAS contribution

The contribution of the American Association for the Advancement of Science to assist NSF in addressing public policy dimensions in the second Outlook through the identification of vital issues, and the preparation and review of papers that explore those issues, is described. An ad hoc committee, constituted as a subcommittee of the AAAS Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, has served as an advisory body to the project. Two workshops and an “intersociety seminar” were conducted to synthesize the contributions of ten papers. Close and continuous collaboration between AAAS and NSF assured that the issues raised in the AAAS policy papers were being taken into account in preparation of the second Outlook. The extent to which analysis of those issues prove useful in federal policymaking is less certain.     

Drowning in a sea of science and technology policy issues: Are we going down for the third time?

A perspective on the various actors in and constraints on the science-technology policy process is offered. Problems such as who defines the issues and according to what criteria are discussed. This is followed by a critique of the AAAS and SSRC contributions to the second Outlook, as outlined by Teich and Miller, respectively. The article concludes by asking rhetorically if Congress is the major client, shouldn't congressional involvement in the planning of the Five-Year Outlook be considerably greater than it is?     

An interactive computer-based approach to aid group problem formulation

The size, cost, and complexity of quantitative modeling in the social and physical sciences demand that the modeler focus attention on premodeling phases of analysis, specifically on formulation and definition of “problems.” This is especially true in the “softer” or less “well-structured” problem areas of futures research and technology assessment. At this stage of modeling, a key factor is communication among modelers. This paper briefly discusses approaches to classifying and formulating problems that illustrate the role of communication in modeling. It then describes a computer-based communication system as one possible aid in the problem-formulation process.     

The Economics of Social Interactions: An Interdisciplinary Ground for Social Scientists?

Social interaction models, i.e. the changing sequence of actions between individuals who modify their behavior under the influence of their peers, have rarely enjoyed as high a profile in economic analysis as they do today. However, the literature growth has not been accompanied by a process of academic consolidation. The difficulties encountered in research are largely but not entirely the result of data constraints. The main argument of this article is that the source of problems may be traceable to the lack of a complementary approach between economics and other disciplines. The difficulties presented by the deficit in academic exchange among social scientists are compounded by the current analytical framework, which still concentrates on the fundamental, but mutually exclusive, traditions of thought: homo oeconomicus and homo sociologicus. In spotlighting these ideas, this article reviews the economic body of literature on social interactions and their effect on individual unemployment status. Two directions in current research are analyzed: the impact of social (work) norms on unemployment and the role of social networks in the job search process. The theoretical and methodological challenges encountered in research suggest that the future of social interactions models might be found at the crossroads of economics and other social sciences.     

The semantics of market and civil society: a bird’s eye view of Robert Sugden’s contribution to social sciences

In this article, we discuss some key aspects of Robert Sugden’s contribution to social sciences. We focus on both his inclination to consider social orders compatible with the real distribution of knowledge in society and his idea that the market is better seen as a network of opportunities for mutual advantage.     

Socioeconomics and the new “battle of the methods”: Towards a paradigm shift?

During the last ten or fifteen years the old separation between economics and other social sciences has increasingly been challenged by economists applying the neoclassical paradigm to problems that traditionally concern the other social sciences. The main thesis of this paper is that this so-called “economic imperialism” threatens to unleash a new paradigmatic struggle in the social sciences, which is likely to be just as destructive as the old Methodenstreit. It is in this situation that socioeconomics emerges as a viable alternative since it emphasizes the need for a systhesis of the findings of several social sciences when an economic problem is analyzed. The article stresses the original battle of the methods at the turn of the century that gave birth to a set of ideas, analogous to those of Etzioni on socioeconomics, namely what Max Weber called Sozialökonomik. The emergence of “economic imperialism” is described, and the essay ends with a plea for a socioeconomics in the sense of a broad, overarching approach to economic analysis. Economic imperialism, it is concluded, threatens to close the door to new developments in economics; socioeconomics, on the other hand, tries to keep it open.     

Modelling research and development: How do firms solve design problems?

One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable. The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries.     

Should governments fund basic science? Evidence from a willingness-to-pay experiment in five universities

ABSTRACT

Tax-payers are usually the ultimate funders of large-scale research infrastructures (RIs), but the expected discoveries of such projects often do not have any known use-value. By interviewing 1,022 undergraduates, we study the drivers of preferences for paying for basic research, which are still little known. We focus on the LHC at CERN, where the Higgs boson was discovered. Income, awareness, and positive attitudes towards science drive a positive willingness-to-pay for science. Students in social sciences and the humanities are willing to contribute to scientific curricula at least as much as their peers. Findings offer support to government funding of basic research as a public good.     

Economics of Social Capital*

The literature on the idea of ‘social capital’ is now enormous. Offering an alternative to impersonal markets and coercive states, the communitarian institutions built around social capital have looked attractive to scholars in the humanities and social sciences. The literature in consequence has a warm glow to it. In this article, I first study the various contexts in which the promises people make to one another are credible and then suggest that the accumulation of social capital is a possible route to creating such a context. I offer a tight definition of social capital – namely, interpersonal networks – so as not to prejudge its ability to enhance human well-being. The links between the microfoundations of social capital and the macroeconomic performance of economies are then studied. I also show that economic theory not only identifies circumstances in which communitarian institutions can function well, but that it also uncovers a dark side, namely, their capicity to permit one group to exploit another within long-term relationships.     

The Five-Year Outlook as a policy document: Historical and comparative perspectives

The article reflects on the role played by policy analysis in the development of national science policies. Its thesis is that science policy, for coherence as a policy function and its impact on policy making, depends on analysis of goals, strategies, issues, and programs; policy crystallizes, to the extent it does, through the medium of policy analysis. First, a number of United States science policy reports prepared between 1945 and 1980 are reviewed. Next, recent science policy reports from predominantly western countries are examined. Taken together, these historical and comparative perspectives make it possible to appreciate the policy potential of future Five-Year Outlook reports.     

The citation field of evolutionary economics

Evolutionary economics has developed into an academic field of its own, institutionalized around, amongst others, the Journal of Evolutionary Economics (JEE). This paper analyzes the way and extent to which evolutionary economics has become an interdisciplinary journal, as its aim was: a journal that is indispensable in the exchange of expert knowledge on topics and using approaches that relate naturally with it. Analyzing citation data for the relevant academic field for the Journal of Evolutionary Economics, we use insights from scientometrics and social network analysis to find that, indeed, the JEE is a central player in this interdisciplinary field aiming mostly at understanding technological and regional dynamics. It does not, however, link firmly with the natural sciences (including biology) nor to management sciences, entrepreneurship, and organization studies. Another journal that could be perceived to have evolutionary acumen, the Journal of Economic Issues, does relate to heterodox economics journals and is relatively more involved in discussing issues of firm and industry organization. The JEE seems most keen to develop theoretical insights.     

Adam Smith's Ethics and the “Noble Arts” 1

Adam Smith's character-based ethical system lays the foundation for his vision of the social and economic good. Within this system, the arts perform a critical role. Smith's essays “Of the Imitative Arts” and his Lectures on Rhetoric and Belles Lettres are useful companions to The Theory of Moral Sentiments in analyzing the mechanisms whereby literature and the arts excite moral development. The arts stretch the boundaries of imagination and perspective, stimulating self-awareness and self-reflective growth. When combined with rational thought, decision-making takes place through an internal dialogue in which this wider perspective weighs upon one's “impartial spectator” and becomes the background for action. According to this view, the arts provide positive externalities for society and should be encouraged through public policy. The arts promote a conversation that becomes part of the common goods of society, including that of science.     

Negative externalities and Sen’s liberalism theorem

Summary. Sen’s seminal, negative theorem about minimal liberalism has had a profound effect on economics, philosophy, and the social sciences. To address concerns raised by his result, we show how Sen’s assumptions must be modified to obtain positive conclusions; e.g., one resolution allows an agent to be decisive only if his choice does not impose “strong negative externalities” on others. We also uncover a significantly different interpretation of Sen’s societal cycles: rather than describing the rights of individuals to choose, the cycles identify when these choices impose difficulties on others. Other ways to address Sen’s difficulties come from game theory.Received: 14 October 2004, Revised: 7 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D71, C70, D62.Donald G. Saari: Correspondenc toThe research of D. Saari was supported by NSF grant DMI-0233798. Our thanks to P. Hammond for suggesting some useful references. Some of our joint results were reported in Brunel (now Petron) (1998).     

The worth of a songbird: ecological economics as a post-normal science

One of the very valuable features of Ecological Economics is its provision for publications under the rubric ‘Commentary’. In that way, essays which are not research in the strictest sense can still find proper refereed publication, and can be submitted to the further test of open colleague criticism. This paper is intended to be read in that spirit; and where criticisms are made of the work of particular scholars, that is done because of the significance of their contribution.     

The Work Ethic in Industrial America, 1850–1920

Clarence Ayres wished to avoid moral relativism or agnosticism in the social sciences, yet he also rejected what he called the “transcendental” epistemology of classical philosophy, an epistemology grounded in the desire to know absolute or ultimate truths. He wanted to find a middle ground between absolutism and relativism by separating “technology” from “ceremony,” and by replacing the ends/means dichotomy with an ends/means continuum. This paper examines his articulation of the issues, and in this context also examines the work of two more recent theorists, Gary Becker and Richard Posner. We conclude that Ayres' epistemological middle ground remains elusive.     

Social morality and the primacy of individual perspectives

This paper examines themes and concerns about my book, The Order of Public Reason, raised in the three essays in this symposium by Peter Boettke & Rosolino Candela, Michael Munger and Kevin Vallier. The three essays present variations on a common theme: I need to embrace deeper commitments than The Order of Public Reason acknowledges. In my estimation these proposals lead to places that I do not wish to go — nor should anyone devoted to core Hayekian insights. The goal of the book is show how a diversity of moral views can lead to a cooperative social morality while abjuring as far as possible “external” moral claims — claims that do not derive from the perspectives of cooperating individuals. The diverse individual moral perspectives, and what they understand as normative, must be the real engines of social normativity. In this essay I stress the primacy of the individual normative perspectives in generating social morality; this helps show why the urge to embrace deeper commitments should be resisted. Rather than going over the presentation in The Order of Public Reason to stress this point, I sketch a modest recasting of the analysis in terms of models of individual moral interaction.