市场占有率预测的好方法——马尔可夫预测法的实证分析

随着我国加入WTO,市场竞争日趋激烈,为在竞争中立于不败之地,各企业势必要预测本产品在市场上占有的份额。本文以实证法介绍了马尔可夫市场占有率预测方法的应用步骤。     

马尔可夫预测法在商品流通领域中的应用及实证分析

本文以实证法介绍了马尔可夫预测法在商品流通领域中的应用，为企业决策提供依据。     

基于个体购买决策分析的消费品市场建模与预测

以“决策函数”为基础建立了消费品市场的系统模型，并讨论了该模型在市场预测中的应用。     

提升河北省食品工业竞争力对策研究——基于显在竞争力的市场占有率评价

改革开放30年来,河北省食品工业得到长足发展的同时也面临着诸多问题,突出表现在食品工业显在竞争力不强。根源于河北农副产品加工业、食品制造业及饮料制造业的市场竞争力下降。提升河北省食品工业竞争力要着力于提高三大门类制造业的市场占有率,获取竞争优势,为此,应加大政府相关政策支持力度;加快技术创新,调整产业结构,提高产品附加值;壮大龙头企业,培育知名品牌;建立和完善食品安全监管体系。     

生产资料市场运行分析预测及对策——以江西省生产资料市场为例

通过对2008年江西生产资料市场调查研究发现：2008年生产资料价格总水平呈回落态势,上半年大幅上涨,下半年急速回落,但仍高于去年同期水平。预计2009年江西省生产资料需求继续放缓,在产能全面过剩的形势下,市场供需增长势头将进一步回落;价格总水平将低位运行,不同品种价格走势各异,全年价格水平将较大幅度低于上年。为此,本文通过2008年江西生产资料市场简要分析,预测今年生产资料市场的走势并就此提出相应对策和建议。     

人民币汇率预测——基于GARCH模型的实证研究

自汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率的走势一直受世人关注.运用合适的方法对汇率进行预测研究,具有重要意义.本文首先介绍了广义条件异方差自回归(GARCH)模型,随后对人民币/美元的高频数据进行预检验,发现其存在自相关性和异方差性,之后建立汇率GARCH模型,并进行汇率预测.     

人民币汇率预测——基于GARCH模型的实证研究

自汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率的走势一直受世人关注。运用合适的方法对汇率进行预测研究,具有重要意义。本文首先介绍了广义条件异方差自回归(GARCH)模型,随后对人民币/美元的高频数据进行预检验,发现其存在自相关性和异方差性,之后建立汇率GARCH模型,并进行汇率预测。     

基于最大Lyapunov指数的股市数据预测

股市数据的预测是预测领域的热点问题。给出了基于最大Lyapunov指数的股市数据短期预期方法。首先据混沌的特性计算得到时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数值,然后找到预测中心点的最近邻点,建立预测中心点与最近邻点的关系式,据此关系式计算出两个预测值,最后对两个值进行平均得最终预测值。实际应用结果表明效果良好,预测精度很高。     

基于主成分分析的农民收入预测

农民收入问题一直是社会关注的热点,本文利用主成分分析的方法通过SPASS软件对数据进行预处理,减少了输入变量,然后进行线性回归,提高了预测的效率和准确度,实例表明该方法是有效和可行的。     

明星分析师盈利预测准确度与投资者选择性偏差——基于中国A股市场的实证研究

文章选取A股2005—2012年分析师盈利预测数据,研究明星分析师相对于非明星分析师预测是否更加准确,以及投资者对于明星分析师跟进股票的反应。通过控制影响分析师盈利预测准确度的公司特性变量,发现明星分析师较非明星分析师有更差的预测精确度。并根据明星分析师跟进的公司规模调整残差和过度3个月的累积收益进行分组,发现投资者对于明星分析师跟进的股票存在过度反应的现象,即持有3个月就出现收益反转。     

社区公园中自然环境要素的恢复性潜能评价研究

进入21世纪,快速城市化进程下高密度、快节奏的城市生活环境引发人群精神紧张、生活压力大等精神健康问题,加剧了精神疾病的蔓延。已有研究证实,社区公园作为一种“恢复性环境”能够有效缓解人群精神压力。但是,其内部不同环境要素的配置组合对人群恢复性潜能的影响程度有待深入研究。以重庆渝中区3个社区公园为研究对象,实施网络调查,运用联合分析法的基本思路,选取社区公园内草地、灌木、乔木、花卉、水体、置石、山体坡地和动物8类自然环境要素,开展不同要素类型效用、同种要素规模效用和群体需求差异效用3个方面恢复性潜能的度量评价。结果发现,草地(W=27.82%)恢复性潜能最高,大面积草地覆盖(U=47.6)、大片树林(U=23.8)、疏松灌木丛(U=16.1)、大量花卉(U=21.2)、大面积湖泊(U=32.7)、零散置石(U=6.3)、少量山体坡地(U=5.5)和少量动物(U=19.2)等自然环境要素组合的社区公园具有高恢复性潜能。     

产品伤害危机中影响消费者购买意图因素的重要性:危机严重程度及性别存在影响吗?

产品伤害危机被定义为产品被发现是有缺陷的或危险的广为宣传的事件。本文通过检验在产品伤害危机中影响消费者购买意图四个关键因素(品牌、组织响应、原产地形象、外部影响)的重要性,为组织管理者在危机发生后如何将危机造成的不利后果化为最小提供指南。为了实现上述目标,使用了联合分析。结果表明无论是在危机严重程度高或低情境下,还是在不同性别情境下,组织响应都是影响消费者购买意图最重要的因素,而原产地都是影响消费者购买意图最不重要的因素。一项发现特别值得注意:女性在危机严重程度高和低情境下、男性在危机严重程度低情境下,外部影响与购买意图负相关。基于本研究的发现,讨论了管理含义。     

重庆市外贸竞争力的现状分析与对策建议

近年来,重庆市的经济外向度有所提高,但外资参与度低、出口产品在国际市场上的竞争力较弱的状况依然存在.重庆市是长江上游和我国西部地区的中心城市.在我国加入世贸组织、国内国际市场无缝连接进程不断加快的今天,重庆市要加快发展,就必须融入全球化进程,在开放经济中求发展,提高自身的外贸竞争力.     

Examining technological competition between BMW and Hyundai in the Korean car market

The Korean car market has increased in size. BMW and Hyundai are the top-ranked imported and domestic vehicle brands in Korea, respectively. Thus, it is important to understand these companies and the Korean car market, because technology is most significant in the vehicle industry. In this paper, we compare BMW with Hyundai from the technological perspective. Our research is focused on an analysis of the technological competition between BMW and Hyundai based on their developed technologies. We use all BMW and Hyundai patents from worldwide patent databases to analyse the two companies’ technologies. In addition, we apply statistical methods and machine learning algorithms to the patent analysis. In our conclusion, we show the technological differences and competition between BMW and Hyundai, and find their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

Price-Cost Margins and Profit Rates in New Zealand Electricity Distribution Networks Since 1994: the Cost of Light Handed Regulation

From 1994 to 2003, New Zealands corporatized electricity lines networks operated with no industry regulator, but under the spotlight of mandatory information disclosure. As a result there exists a large body of detailed, audited and publicly available accounting data on the financial performance of these businesses. Using that data, this paper finds that price-cost margins have widened substantially since deregulation. We estimate the extent to which light-handed regulation has allowed profits to exceed the levels which would have been acceptable under the old rate-of-return regulatory framework, and find that the answer is about $200 million per year, on an ongoing basis.We thank colleagues at Victoria University, and two anonymous referees for this journal, for constructive comments on this paper. Any remaining errors are entirely our responsibility.JEL classification: D21; K23; L11; L43; L51     

Patient and parent preferences for immunoglobulin treatments: a conjoint analysis

Abstract

Objectives:

The purpose was to quantify patient and parent preferences for administration attributes of immunoglobulin (IG) treatments; and determine which administration attributes were most important to users of IG treatment and whether patients and parents have similar preferences for administration attributes.

Methods:

US adult patients and parents of children with a self-reported physician diagnosis of a primary immunodeficiency disorder completed a best-practice web-enabled choice-format conjoint survey that presented a series of 12 choice questions, each including a pair of hypothetical IG-treatment profiles. After reviewing current therapies, each profile was defined by mode of administration, frequency, location, number of needle sticks, and treatment duration. Before answering the choice questions, respondents were told to assume all treatments worked equally well. Choice questions were based on a D-efficient experimental design. Preference weights for attribute levels were estimated using random-parameters logit for each sample (adult patients and parents). Tests were performed to determine potential interactions among the administration attributes. All respondents provided online informed consent.

Results:

In total, 252 patients and 66 parents completed the choice questions appropriately. Overall, both groups preferred a home setting, monthly frequency, fewer needle sticks, and shorter treatment durations of IG treatment relative to alternative choices (p?<?0.05). Mode of administration was the least important attribute to both samples; however, parents strongly preferred self-administration to an appointment with a healthcare professional (p?<?0.05), whereas patients slightly preferred self-administration but were indifferent to the two modes.

Limitations:

Respondents evaluate hypothetical treatments and differences can arise between stated and actual choices.

Conclusions:

Considering the hypothetical treatments evaluated, IG treatments that provide the option of a home setting, monthly frequency, fewer needle sticks, and shorter treatment durations may address the needs of both patients and parents. Patients and parents have different preferences for administration attributes of IG treatments.     

房地产市场GERT网络模型应用研究——基于极大熵参数配置

采用极大熵方法配置参数,构建了考虑体外循环的GERT网络模型,研究投资决策参量的相关参数的函数关系、运算法则及确定方法,提出了考虑体外循环的GERT网络模型求解算法。将该GERT网络模型应用于房地产市场领域,研究房地产市场中各参与主体之间的投资决策流动系统。结果显示,利用该GERT网络模型能充分反映房地产市场中各部门之间、房地产市场部门与体外环境部门之间的交互影响关系,可得到科学合理的量化结论。