个性化市场需求下的创新企业研发管理模式的探讨

"物竞天择,适者生存",同样是市场经济的金科玉律.企业要在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地,必须抓住"产品开发"和"市场开拓"才能形成自己的竞争优势.而"产品开发"又是"市场开拓"的基础,为实现"市场开拓",就应及时对产品研发管理模式进行变革和优化,及时开发出大量的新产品提供市场.这就给企业提出了研发管理模式如何创新以适应加速新产品开发的课题.     

新产品开发中的风险辨识

开发新产品是企业在激烈的市场竞争中保持强劲竞争优势,立于不败之地的重要手段之一。世界上的优秀企业,它们不只是消极地满足市场需要和适应市场的变化,而是源源不断地开发出新产品来创造新的市场,使自己永远站在世界的前列。然而,新产品开发是一项错综复杂的活动,投资多、风险大、周期长,几乎所有的企业都尝到过失败的滋味。因此,     

论企业新产品的开发与设计

企业是市场的主体之一，企业竞争是通过市场竞争来实现的，而市场竞争的核心是产品营销的竞争。产品营销的成败，直接关系着企业的生存和发展。随着科学技术的不断发展，人们的需要也日益多样化。所以，产品的创新又成为企业发展的生命线。企业只有根据消费者的各种不同需要，加强新产品的设计和开发，不断发展新品种、新花色、新包装等来吸引顾客，才能不断拓展市场，在竞争中立于不败之地。一、企业新产品的开发是企业发展的生命线企业要在市场中求发展，主要靠通过设计，创造名优产品，增加花色品种，降低成本，不断提高产品质量，为此，…     

新产品试销决策方法及应用研究

1新产品开发随着现代市场竞争的日趋激烈,新产品开发业已成为企业生存与发展的主要动力。新产品开发工作主要包括两大步骤：筹备和开发。在筹备阶段,企业要完成：（）建立新产品开发的组织机构,配备各类研究人员;（2）制订详细的开发管理制度和工作程序;（3）确定新产品开发的评价标准。在开发阶段,企业须依序进行六项工作：（1）产品创意或策划;（2）创意方案评价;（）商业分析;（）产品设计、制造;（）试销;（6）全面上市。新产品上市成功与否取决于营销人员正确的币场定位、市场分析和上市时机的选择。新产品试销目的在于以抽…     

新产品营销的DEMON分析方法

1新产品开发概述为了减少失误，提高新产品开发的成功率，企业应建立健全新产品开发组织机构并配备各类研究人员，制订详细的开发管理制度和评价标准，并采用科学的开发程序。有效的开发过程一般包括六个步骤：（1）产品创意或策划；（2）创意方案评价；（3）产品营销的量本利分析；（4）产品设计、试造；（5）市场试销；（6）全面上市。新产品开发程序见图1：新产品试制成功之后，为调查消费者的反应和预测未来市场销路，企业一般要选择一目标市场作一次甚至多次试销。试销的目的在于收集产品的销量、市场占有率、购买者及使用者特征、不同…     

我国财产保险市场集中度与市场行为分析

我国保险市场尚处于发展的初级阶段,财产保险市场竞争主体数量过少、有效竞争明显不足,导致市场集中度过高,出现了非理性的价格、新产品开发能力较弱、保险产品销售与服务差和市场过度投机的行为,这关系到未来保险业的稳定和健康发展。     

小议企业降低产品成本的途径

在市场经济条件下,市场竞争异常激烈。企业要在激烈的市场竞争中取胜,就要面向市场,对生产计划的安排、工艺方案的选择、新产品开发等,采用现代化管理科学的手段来加强成本控制,同时,要寻求更多的降低成本的途径。     

论科技型企业联合研发

市场中的激烈竞争也要求企业下功夫研发新产品，以获得竞争的优势。任何一个企业在今天的市场竞争中都特别重视新产品的研发。通过建立符合企业规律的研发联盟新产品开发业务流程是企业不断取得竞争优势的有效的手段。     

中小企业新产品开发中的智猪博弈

在市场竞争日益激烈的环境下,企业能否占领新市场的一个很关键因素是能否及时抢占商机,而抢占商机的重要因素取决于企业能否以最短的时间开发出新产品。就中小企业如何立足于自身实际情况,用适合自身的方式开发新产品以赢得商机进行了初步探讨。     

利用外商投资设立研发中心的思考

２１世纪 ,我国要在全球经济一体化市场竞争中占据主动 ,需要在技术创新速度上追赶西方。不断推出自己的新技术、新产品 ,需要借助外力强化自己的研究开发能力。科研开发能力弱是当前中国经济的致命弱点。对目前主要行业名牌产品进行的分析表明 ,我国自行研制开发的仅占２%。只靠购买、引进、仿制 ,而不能自己开发新技术、研制新产品 ,我们在国际市场上将永远处于劣势。“以市场换技术”是我国实行对外开放以来始终坚持的主要目标 ,以优惠政策鼓励外商投资办高新技术企业也取得了一定的效果。但是 ,跨国公司带进来的大多是应用技术 ,很少有…     

Forecasting future demand for large-screen television sets using conjoint analysis with diffusion model

The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses two limitations of the basic Bass diffusion model: that it does not reflect competition among products nor does it forecast demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. The model consists of four steps. First, to investigate consumer preferences for product attributes, we use conjoint analysis to estimate the utility function of consumers. Next we estimate the dynamic price function of each competing product to reflect technological changes and the evolving market environment. Then we derive dynamic utility function by combining the static utility function and the price function. Finally, we forecast the sales of each product using estimated market share and sales data for each period, which are derived from the dynamic utility function and from the Bass diffusion model, respectively.We apply this model to South Korea's market for large-screen televisions. The results show that (1) consumers are sensitive to picture resolution and cost and (2) in the near future, should the market see the introduction of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs with screens larger than 50 inches, the high resolution and steep price drop of LCD will lead LCD TVs to capture a larger market share than TVs with other display types. Finally, our results show that TVs with 40-inch screens are preferred over TVs with larger screens.     

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

Investigation of the effect of secondary market on the diffusion of innovation

In the high-tech product market, the number of hungry adopters, a new type of early adopters who buy new products and sell them soon in the on- or off-line secondary market to seek for the other new products, has been increasing due to the short product life cycle of high-tech products and the low transaction cost on the Internet. This new phenomenon means that it is inappropriate to consider customers only in the primary market as total adopters in innovation diffusion modeling, since purchasers in the secondary market also have a word-of-mouth effect on the remaining non-adopters. To explain this new phenomenon, we modify the basic Bass diffusion model by incorporating the effect of the secondary market and conduct an empirical analysis. As a result, we conclude that the basic Bass model is likely to overestimate sales volume and tends to forecast lagged peak time when there is an effect from the secondary market. This means that applying a diffusion model to high-tech products without considering the secondary market effect would provide an inaccurate market forecast.     

Combining conjoint analysis,scenario analysis,the Delphi method,and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.     

我国热轧板带市场预测研究——基于统计模型

目标市场研究是产品定位的基础。本文运用统计模型和分析工具,对我国的钢材总需求以及热轧板带市场进行了定量预测分析。得出结论:通过回归分析可较准确地预测出未来2～3年我国钢材的消费量与产量;我国钢材总产量能够满足需求,但存在结构调整的需要,就热轧板而言,热轧薄板和热轧薄宽带钢的比例仍然较低。研究结论对新一代钢厂的产品定位具有理论指导意义及实用价值。     

Regulators Markets And Standards Coordination: Policy Lessons From Telepoint

Using quarterly data for 56 new ethical-drug products launched between 1989 and 1996, we estimate the coefficients of a regression equation that has cumulative future sales beyond the forecast period as its dependent variable and third-quarter sales, post-launch product improvements and promotional activities, pre-launch product quality and speed to market, and market growth as the independent variables. We find the future success of a new product to be detectable as early as the third quarter after launch, and that while post-launch promotional activities can contribute to that success, if the product has not shown signs of life by the third quarter it is unlikely to do so afterwards. The implication is that being first to the market can contribute to the success of a new drug, as can having the highest-quality drug, though neither being first nor being best is necessary. Rather, a new drug can be both the first and the best in its product category, but if strong signs of success do not appear within nine months after launch, the drug is likely to be fighting a losing uphill battle thereafter, even in a growing market. Or, at least in pharmaceuticals, you get only one bite at the cherry.     

证券投资风险预测的E-Bayes估计

本文给出了E-Bayes方法，以上海证券个股五粮液52个连续交易日的收盘价格为例，建立数学模型进行分析和预测，预测结果与市场实际值相当吻合。与灰色系统理论中的GM（1，1）预测模型相比，本文提出的方法预测的精度更高，计算量小。不仅适用于经济系统的分析与预测，也适用于其它系统的分析与预测。     

A forecasting model for the market of competitive products

The classic way of performing a market forecast for industrial products implies an econometric analysis of the historical data of consumption and their projections into the future. The present work illustrates a fresh approach to the problem; the demand for the product under study is evaluated in a mathematical model which takes into consideration the technological and commercial characteristics of this product and correlates it with competitive and substitutive products. Competitiveness is measured by assigning merit scores to the characteristics of the different products, and calculating the relevant “weights of importance” on the basis of the historical consumptions. Forecasts of consumption are made by estimating the future scores of the characteristics and extrapolating the weights of importance. An example of complete application of the model to the textile market in Italy is included.     

Technology roadmapping in review: A tool for making sustainable new product development decisions

Typically, firms decide whether or not to develop a new product based on their resources, capabilities and the return on investment that the product is estimated to generate. We propose that firms adopt a broader heuristic for making new product development choices. Our heuristic approach requires moving beyond traditional finance-based thinking, and suggests that firms concentrate on technological trajectories by combining technology roadmapping, information technology (IT) and supply chain management to make more sustainable new product development decisions. Using the proposed holistic heuristic methods, versus relying on traditional finance-based decision-making tools (e.g., emphasizing net present value or internal rate of return projections), enables firms to plan beyond the short-term and immediate set of technologies at hand. Our proposed heuristic approach enables firms to forecast technologies and markets, and hence, new product priorities in the longer term. Investments in new products should, as a result, generate returns over a longer period than traditionally expected, giving firms more sustainable investments. New products are costly and need to have a durable presence in the market. Transaction costs and resources will be saved, as firms make new product development decisions less frequently.