A Primer on Financial Contagion

Abstract.  This paper presents a theoretical framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks. We first review the different definitions and measures of contagion adopted by the literature. We then use a simple multi-country asset pricing model to classify the main elements of the current debate on contagion and provide a stylized account of how a crisis in one country can spread to the world economy. In particular, the model shows how crises can be transmitted across countries, without assuming ad hoc portfolio management rules or market imperfections. Finally, tracking our classification, we survey the results of the empirical literature on contagion.     

Network VAR models to measure financial contagion

Financial contagion among countries can arise from different channels, the most important of which are financial markets and bank lending. The paper aims to build an econometric network approach to understand the extent to which contagion spillovers (from one country to another) aris from financial markets, from bank lending, or from both. To achieve this aim we consider a model specification strategy which combines Vector Autoregressive models with network models. The paper contributes to the contagion literature with a model that can consider bank exposures and financial market prices, jointly and not only separately. From an empirical viewpoint, our results show that both bilateral exposures and market prices act as contagion channels in the transmission of shocks arising from a country to other countries.     

Stock market linkages and financial contagion: A cobreaking analysis

Financial crises have shown that dramatic movements in one financial market can have a powerful impact on other markets. This paper proposes to use cobreaking to model comovements between stock markets during crises and to test for contagion. We find evidence of cobreaking between developed stock markets. In emerging stock markets, the evidence of cobreaking is mainly due to the non-financial event of the World Trade Center terrorist attacks in 2001. We find evidence of short-term linkages during times of crisis but not contagion. These short-term linkages have important implications for investors, risk managers and regulators.     

Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets

This paper investigates contagion to European stock markets associated with seven big financial shocks between 1997 and 2002. We apply methods using heteroscedasticity-adjusted correlation coefficients to discriminate between contagion, interdependence and breaks in stock markets relationships. The analysis focuses on a comparison between developed Western European markets and emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe. We find modest evidence of significant instabilities in cross-market linkages after the crises. The Central and Eastern European stock markets are not more vulnerable to contagion than Western European markets.     

Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis

This paper describes an investigation of the transmission of US shocks to Asian economies with consideration of financial linkages and trade linkages. Using the sign restriction vector autoregression (VAR) approach during 2000–2012, our empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, both US financial and trade linkages exert a significant impact on production in Asian economies. Second, through both financial and trade linkages, US spillover shocks account for around 50% of the production fluctuation in Asian economies. Third, during the episodes of 2007–2009 US financial crisis, the impact of financial shocks is greater than that of trade shocks. Results suggest that (i) Asian economies are not decoupled with US; and (ii) different from conventional findings, financial linkages between US and Asian economies are strong, especially for highly developed Asian economies. Therefore, investors and policymakers of Asian economies should take account of US financial conditions.     

Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis

This study examines market co-movements in Islamic and mainstream equity markets across different regions in order to discover contagion during 9 major crises and to measure integration between markets. Using wavelet decomposition to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movement, we find that the shocks were transmitted via excessive linkages, while the recent subprime crisis reveals fundamentals-based contagion. While Islamic markets show traces of reduced exposure to the recent crisis owing to low leverage effect, their less diversified portfolio nature increases vulnerability to other crises. We generally find incomplete market integration, with relatively higher fundamental integration for Islamic markets which may be attributable to their real sector allocation nature.     

Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods

In this paper, we investigate financial spillovers between stock markets during calm and turbulent periods. We explicitly define financial spillovers and financial contagion in accordance with the literature and construct statistical models corresponding to these definitions in a Markov switching framework. Applying the new testing methodology based on transition matrices, we find that spillovers from the US stock market to the UK, Japanese and German markets are more frequent when the latter markets are in a crisis regime. However, we reject the hypothesis of strong financial contagion from the US to the other markets.     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONTAGION RISK IN BANKING

The recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro‐prudential regulation and supervision. In this paper, we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system. It is argued that the structure of the interbank market, the size of banks, the linkages among them, the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion. We discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research.     

Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market

Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the International Monetary Fund as “the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions,” is a key topic in financial stability studies and macroprudential policy-making. In this context, the complex web of interconnections of the interbank market plays the crucial role of allowing funding liquidity shortages to propagate between financial institutions. Here, we introduce a simple yet effective model of the interbank market in which liquidity shortages propagate through an epidemic-like contagion mechanism on the network of interbank loans. The model is defined by using aggregate balance sheet information of European banks, and it exploits country and bank-specific risk features to account for the heterogeneity of financial institutions. Moreover, in order to obtain the European-wide topology of the interbank network, we define a block reconstruction method based on the exchange flows between the various countries. We show that the proposed contagion model is able to estimate systemic liquidity risk across different years and countries. Results suggest that our effective contagion approach can be successfully used as a viable alternative to more realistic but complicated models, which not only require more specific balance sheet variables with high time resolution but also need assumptions on how banks respond to liquidity shocks.

     

Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies

The global financial crisis (2007–2009) saw sharp declines in stock markets around the world, affecting both advanced and emerging markets. In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion originating from the US to advanced and emerging markets during the crisis period. Using a latent factor model, we provide strong evidence of contagion effects in both advanced and emerging equity markets. In the aggregate equity market indices, contagion from the US explains a large portion of the variance in stock returns in both advanced and emerging markets. However, in the financial sector indices we find less evidence of contagion than in the aggregate indices, and this is particularly the case for the advanced markets. The results suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.     

Modelling contagion of financial crises

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during “Black Monday” of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market’s fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.     

The impact of funding liquidity on market quality

This study analyzes market quality during the 2007–2008 credit crunch, by examining the impact of funding liquidity on market liquidity and price discovery of S&P 500 exchange-traded funds (i.e., S&P 500 depositary receipts [SPYs]) and index futures (E-minis). The empirical results show that funding liquidity affects market liquidity, and that the impact of illiquidity contagion between SPYs and E-minis was significant during the subprime mortgage crisis. In particular, the contagion effects between the two markets mediate the impact of funding illiquidity on market liquidity during the credit crunch. Considering the influences of other market factors on price discovery, we suggest that E-mini index futures made less contributions to price discovery during the credit crunch compared to normal periods. The empirical finding emphasizes the importance of the contagion effect between ETF and E-mini futures markets, when they suffer from external shocks.     

Identifying contagion

Identifying contagion effects during periods of financial crisis is known to be complicated by the changing volatility of asset returns during periods of stress. To untangle this we propose a GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) common features approach, where systemic risk emerges from a common factor source (or indeed multiple factor sources) with contagion evident through possible changes in the factor loadings relating to the common factor(s). Within a portfolio mimicking factor framework this can be identified using moment conditions. We use this framework to identify contagion in three illustrations involving both single and multiple factor specifications: to the Asian currency markets in 1997–1998, to US sectoral equity indices in 2007–2009 and to the CDS (credit default swap) market during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–2013. The results reveal the extent to which contagion effects may be masked by not accounting for the sources of changed volatility apparent in simple measures such as correlation.     

Identifying credit demand,financial intermediation,and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach

In this paper, we identify three exogenous shocks to credit market: demand for credit, supply of funds into the financial system, and the willingness to lend of financial institutions (financial intermediation), and also, determine the contribution of these shocks to fluctuations in the credit market and overall economic activity. We estimate a structural vector autoregression model where the three credit shocks are identified with a set of sign restrictions motivated by a simple partial equilibrium model of financial intermediation. We find that the credit demand shock explains significantly the variations in the long-term loan rate proxied by the Moody’s Baa corporate bond yield, while the supply of funds shock contributes to most of the fluctuations in the short-term commercial paper rate. The financial intermediation shock drives most of the fluctuations in the quantity of loans as well as the spread between the Baa and commercial paper rates. Of the credit shocks, we find that the financial intermediation shock has the largest impact on real economic activity. In fact, our analysis implies that the sharp decline in output during the 2007–2009 financial crisis is largely attributable to the financial intermediation shock, along with shocks originating outside of the financial system.     

Did Vietnam stock market avoid the “contagion risk” from China and the U.S.? The contagion effect test with dynamic correlation coefficients

This paper examines the Vietnamese stock market with an extension of the recent investigation of risk contagion effects. Daily data spanning October 9, 2006–June 19, 2009 are sourced for the empirical validation of the risk contagion between the stock markets in Vietnam, China, and the U.S. To facilitate the validation of contagion effects with market related coefficients, this paper constructs a bivariable EGARCH model of dynamic condition correlation coefficients. First, we examine whether there are contagion effects when there is a financial crisis in the Vietnamese stock market. Next, we verify whether the contagion risk triggered by the crisis can affect the Vietnamese market and examine which market influences the Vietnamese market the most. We find that compared to the U.S. stock market, the Chinese stock market brings more contagion risk to the Vietnamese market, and these effects gain more significance after the sub-prime mortgage crisis.     

Risk spillover analysis across worldwide ESG stock markets: New evidence from the frequency-domain

With the increasing global awareness of green environmental protection, the international environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stock markets are developing rapidly together with rising risk linkages across worldwide markets. Therefore, this study explores the risk spillover characteristics of international ESG stock markets in the time and frequency domains and constructs a risk linkage network to further explore the risk contagion mechanism. The results show that in most cases, the developed North American market is the core of outward risk spillover in international ESG stock markets. The entire system presents a small-world structure, and the internal regions display different risk spillover characteristics. Moreover, international ESG markets generally have strong time–frequency spillover and medium-frequency (a month to a year) spillover. In contrast, the high- (a day to a month) and low-frequency (more than one year) spillovers are located at relatively low levels, but they will rise significantly under sudden financial events. The empirical results expand the ESG stock market's theoretical framework and provide a reference for investors and market regulators to reduce the investment risk of ESG.     

Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis

Considering the frequency domain and nonlinear characteristics of financial risks, we measure the multiscale financial risk contagion by constructing EMD-Copula-CoVaR models. Using a sample composed of nine international stock markets from January 4, 1999, to May 13, 2021, the empirical study reveals that: (1) EMD-Copula-CoVaR models can effectively measure the multiscale financial risk contagion, and the financial risk contagion is significant at all time scales; (2) The high-frequency component is the major contributor of financial risk contagion; meanwhile, the low-frequency component is the smallest among all time scale components; (3) The risk export of the US financial market to other markets, except the UK under the original and medium-frequency component, is higher than that it receives; and (4) Even though the magnitude of overall financial risk contagion is similar for the COVID-19 pandemic, Subprime Crises, 9/11 terrorist attack and other crises, the relative importance of different frequency components is heterogeneous. Therefore, the countermeasures of risk contagion should be designed according to its multiscale characteristics.     

Contagion effect of systemic risk among industry sectors in China’s stock market

This paper constructs a tail event driven network to investigate the interdependence of tail risks among industries in the Chinese stock market from 2014 to 2019, and identifies systemically important industries that have made significant contributions to risk contagion by systemic risk decomposition technique. The empirical results suggest strong linkages among industry sectors. The risk profiles of certain industries under close supply–demand relationships are positively correlated, whereas the financial industry, particularly banking, proves to be the principal risk diversifier in the network, with the household appliance, food and drink industries performing likewise an important role in risk diversification. Based on the TENQR model, further study on additional information provided by the industrial chain structure demonstrates that the upstream industry dominates the spread of risks under extreme market conditions. Our findings are of constructive significance to the anticipative introduction of corresponding policies by regulatory authorities, and are also instructive to the investors’ allocation of assets.     

Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies

Despite the econometric advances of the last 30 years, the effects of monetary policy stance during the boom and busts of the stock market are not clearly defined. In this paper, we use a structural heterogeneous vector autoregressive (SHVAR) model with identified structural breaks to analyse the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies on U.S. stock market volatility. We find that contractionary monetary policy enhances stock market volatility, but the importance of monetary policy shocks in explaining volatility evolves across different regimes and is relative to supply shocks (and shocks to volatility itself). In comparison to business cycle fluctuations, monetary policy shocks explain a greater fraction of the variance of stock market volatility at shorter horizons, as in medium to longer horizons. Our basic findings of a positive impact of monetary policy on equity market volatility (being relatively stronger during calmer stock market periods) are also corroborated by analyses conducted at the daily frequency based on an augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model of realised volatility (HAR-RV) and a multivariate k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles framework. Our results have important implications both for investors and policymakers.     

The macro-financial factors behind the crisis: Global liquidity glut or global savings glut?

It has been argued that the global financial crisis 2007–2009 was intrinsically related to two largely unprecedented phenomena in the global economy: (i) exceptionally benign financial market conditions as mirrored in historically low risk premia and buoyant asset price developments as well as (ii) an unprecedented widening of external imbalances. This paper explores to what extent these global trends can be understood as a reaction to three structural shocks to the macro-financial environment of the global economy: (i) monetary shocks (“excess liquidity” hypothesis), (ii) preference shocks (“savings glut” hypothesis), and (iii) investment shocks (“investment drought” hypothesis). In order to uniquely identify these shocks in an integrated framework, we estimate structural VARs for the two main regions with widening imbalances, the United States and emerging Asia, using sign restrictions that are compatible with standard New Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models. Our results show that (US) monetary policy shocks explain the largest part of the variation in imbalances and financial market prices. We find that savings shocks and investment shocks explain less of the variation. Hence, a “liquidity glut” may have been a more important driver of real and financial imbalances in the US and emerging Asia that ultimately triggered the global financial crisis.