Environmental risk and welfare valuation under imperfect information

Consumers are often uninformed, or unsure, about the ambient level of environmental risk. An optimal policy must jointly determine efficient levels of self-protection, information provision, and public risk mitigation efforts. Unfortunately, conventional welfare measures are not amenable to welfare analysis in the presence of imperfect information. We develop a theoretical welfare measure, called quasi-compensating variation, that is a natural extension of compensating variation (CV). We show that this welfare measure offers not only a money metric of the “value of information,” but also a means to appropriately evaluate the welfare effects of various policies when consumers are imperfectly informed about ambient risk. This welfare measure allows us to obtain a number of results that the traditional CV measure fails to offer. In particular, we show that the consumer’s willingness to pay for a (small) environmental risk reduction is higher for those who underestimate ambient risk than for those who overestimate or are perfectly informed if the marginal return to self-protection increases with ambient risk.     

The social value of public information with convex costs of information acquisition

In a beauty contest framework, welfare can decrease with public information if the precision of private information is exogenous, whereas welfare necessarily increases with public information if the precision is endogenous with linear costs of information acquisition. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile these results by considering nonlinear costs of information acquisition. The main result of this paper is a necessary and sufficient condition for welfare to increase with public information. Using it, we show that costs of information acquisition are linear if and only if welfare necessarily increases with public information. Thus, welfare can decrease with public information for any strictly convex costs. This is because convex costs mitigate the so-called crowding-out effect of public information on private information, thereby making the social value of public information with endogenous precision closer to that with exogenous precision.     

A ‘Natural Experiment’ Approach to Contingent Valuation of Private and Public UV Health Risk Reduction Strategies in Low and High Risk Countries

We present the results of a natural experiment to test how variations in exogenous risk levels affect resultant willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction. The case study presented considers WTP for reductions in the skin cancer risks associated with exposure to solar UV radiation. A common design contingent valuation survey is conducted in four countries, across which variation in geographical latitude and genetic mix mean that exogenous risks differ substantially. Survey respondents were presented with both a private and public good route for affecting risk reduction. In both cases, results confirm that once adjustment had been made for expected relationships with other covariates (such as income and risk averting behaviour), valuation responses for both goods conformed to expectations with the ordering of values across countries reflecting the ordering of scientifically established health risks. This suggests that links between values and objective health risks may be observed within such situations and provides a justification for continuing research into more natural representations of risk and risk reductions in order to yield consistent and robust measures of associated values.     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.     

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

We explore the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation and distributional preferences, by which we mean individuals’ opinions about who should be responsible for climate change prevention and whether the share of climate change impacts borne by the poor is a cause for concern. We use 1,770 responses to an online stated preference survey. The domestic costs in our survey’s policy choice scenarios are expressed as a set of randomized shares across four different payment vehicles, and the international cost shares are randomized across four groups of countries. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions of the likely regressivity of climate change impacts under a policy of business-as-usual. WTP is higher when larger cost shares are borne by parties deemed to bear a greater responsibility for mitigation, and when respondents believe (and care) that the impacts of climate change may be borne disproportionately by the world’s poor. That WTP for an environmental policy depends on the distributional consequences of the policy is an unsettling result: efficiency assessments are typically assumed to be separate from equity considerations in most benefit-cost analyses.     

The role of uncertainty in the relationship between fairness evaluations and willingness to pay

Participants in contingent valuation studies may be uncertain about a number of aspects of the policy and survey context. The uncertainty management model of fairness judgments states that individuals will evaluate a policy in terms of its fairness when they do not know whether they can trust the relevant managing authority or experience uncertainty due to insufficient knowledge of the general issues surrounding the environmental policy. Similarly, some researchers have suggested that, not knowing how to answer WTP questions, participants convey their general attitudes toward the public good rather than report well-defined economic preferences. These contentions were investigated in a sample of 840 residents in four urban catchments across Australia who were interviewed about their WTP for stormwater pollution abatement. Four sources of uncertainty were measured: amount of prior issue-related thought, trustworthiness of the water authority, insufficient scenario information, and WTP response uncertainty. A logistic regression model was estimated in each subsample to test the main effects of the uncertainty sources on WTP as well as their interaction with fairness and proenvironmental attitudes. Results indicated support for the uncertainty management model in only one of the four samples. Similarly, proenvironmental attitudes interacted rarely with uncertainty to a significant level, and in ways that were more complex than hypothesised. It was concluded that uncertain individuals were generally not more likely than other participants to draw on either fairness evaluations or proenvironmental attitudes when making decisions about paying for stormwater pollution abatement.     

Economic Valuation of the Threat Posed by the Establishment of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Australia

Invasive species policy could be better informed if we understood how much people value reductions in the risks posed by these organisms. This study investigates the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for additional measures to reduce the risk of invasion of the Australian mainland by the Asian tiger mosquito (ATM). The study contributes to the literature by applying a stated preference method to estimate the public’s WTP to reduce the risk of an ATM invasion, expressed as a change in probability. It is the first ex ante invasive species analysis to test over two discrete invasion reduction probabilities based on management effort. Further, to overcome the challenges in valuing changes in probabilities, the study presented respondents with a well-defined discrete difference in the final probability, with one scenario reducing risk from 50 to 25% and the other from 50 to 5%. We find a significant difference in the mean WTP values between these two scenarios (A$67 vs. A$90). The overall conclusion is that estimated benefits of reducing the probability of an ATM incursion outweigh the costs.     

Popular Support for Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from a General Population Mail Survey

Using a sample of 1,651 US households, we explore some determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation programs. Our mail survey had a relatively low response rate, so we first use several additional data sources to build a detailed sample selection model. This model uses features of the survey instrument, measures of geographic vulnerability to climate change, seasonality, the political mix in the county, attributes of the address or addressee, and a set of factor scores from an extensive factor analysis of all census tracts in the US. We estimate this model jointly with a model to explain climate policy preferences as a function of the domestic and international distribution of policy costs as well as the climate change impacts that each respondent believes will occur under a policy of business-as-usual. Despite statistically significant patterns of nonresponse, selectivity effects are minimal in this case. WTP for climate change mitigation is greater when the domestic incidence of mitigation costs is borne mostly through higher energy taxes. It is also greater when costs are understood to be shared internationally with other groups of countries, rather than being borne mostly by a country group including the US. People are generally more willing to pay for climate change mitigation if they believe that the harm caused by climate change impacts will be substantial, rather than just moderate. The assistance of former UCLA undergraduate students Ivka Adam, Tashi Ghale, Michelle Gogolewski, Vilija Gulbinas, and Lindy Olsson was essential to survey development and administration. This paper is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 9818875 to UCLA, with additional support from the Raymond F. Mikesell Foundation at the University of Oregon. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of either the National Science Foundation or ICF International.     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

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Are Korean consumers willing to pay a tax for a mandatory BSE testing programme?

The outbreaks of mad cow disease (BSE) have significantly increased the demand for food safety programs in the Korean beef market. Two issues that are getting much attention are about whether Korea should implement mandatory testing of slaughtered domestic cattle for BSE and whether consumers are willing to pay a tax for the programme. No study, however, has examined consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) a tax for a BSE testing programme. We conducted a contingent valuation (CV) study using a double-bounded dichotomous choice approach to estimate Korean consumers’ valuation for a mandatory BSE testing programme on slaughtered domestic cattle that are 21 months or older. Our results show that the sample-population adjusted mean estimate of WTP a tax per year is 4482 KRW (US $4.01) per household. This suggests that Korean consumers have a strong preference for a mandatory testing of domestic cattle for BSE. This study also found that Korean consumers’ WTP for the programme is greater than estimated implementation costs of the programme. These results imply that implementing a mandatory BSE testing programme in Korea could confer positive consumer welfare.     

Sensitivity of Willingness to Pay Estimates to the Level of Attributes in Discrete Choice Experiments

This paper considers issues raised in the application of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimating willingness to pay (WTP). The main issue addressed is the sensitivity of WTP estimates to the level of attributes. A DCE, concerned with preferences for alternative cervical screening programmes, was carried out with women in the Tayside area of Scotland. A split sample design was employed in which respondents were divided into two groups. Each group received a discrete choice questionnaire that varied with respect to the levels of three of the six attributes. The price attribute was one of the attributes that varied across questionnaires. Whilst estimated coefficients were not significantly different across five of the six attributes included in the experiment, mean WTP estimates were significantly different for four of the five welfare estimates. However, from a policy point of view, such a difference may not be important. Consideration is also given to other general methodological and policy issues that are raised when using DCEs to estimate WTP. The findings suggest the need for further research into the design and application of DCEs as a method for estimating WTP.     

Public willingness to pay for endocrine disrupting chemicals-free labelling policy in Korea

As public interest in health and safety grows, endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) have become an inevitable problem in society. One way to reduce the social cost of exposure to EDC is to grant a label certification to eco-friendly products that do not release EDC. The Korean government is considering introducing an EDC-free labelling policy. Therefore, our article tries to examine the public willingness to pay (WTP) for implementing the EDC-free labelling policy in Korea. For this purpose, a contingent valuation survey of 1000 Korean consumers was conducted in 2016. We used a one-and-one-half-bounded dichotomous choice question to elicit the WTP responses from the respondents. The mean of household WTP for the EDC-free labelling policy implementation is estimated to be KRW 2266 (USD 2.05) per year. When we expand the value to the whole country, it amounts to KRW 42.9 billion (USD 38.8 million) per year. These values are statistically meaningful at the 1% level and imply that the EDC-free labelling policy contributes to households’ utility and should be implemented immediately.     

Endogenous neighborhood effects on welfare participation

This article examines the impact of neighborhood welfare participation on individual welfare participation, that is, the endogenous neighborhood effects. Endogenous neighborhood effects generate social multipliers. Few existing empirical studies on neighborhood effects distinguish between endogenous neighborhood effects and exogenous neighborhood effects, that is, the effects of neighborhood characteristics. This article constitutes an early attempt to identify and estimate endogenous and exogenous neighborhood effects separately. I construct an instrumental variable for neighborhood welfare participation rate based on the variation in welfare benefits and neighborhood demographic composition to address the reflection problem and the omitted neighborhood variables problem. A two-step method is proposed to separately estimate endogenous and exogenous neighborhood effects. The results show that neighborhood welfare participation plays an important role in a woman’s welfare participation both before and after the welfare reform in 1996.     

Effects of information about invasive species on risk perception and seafood demand by gender and race

In this paper we consider the effects of negative and positive risk information on perceived seafood risks and seafood consumption by gender and race. The data is from a Mid-Atlantic survey of coastal seafood consumers. We elicit risk perceptions in three risk scenarios with a dichotomous choice with a follow-up question format. We elicit continuous revealed and stated preference seafood consumption in nine risk and price scenarios. Analysis in four gender and race categories indicates that demographic groups respond to the positive and negative information in different ways. Communication of risk information as risk mitigation policy is a challenge.     

Trading Taxes vs. Paying Taxes to Value and Finance Public Environmental Goods

The potential sensitivity of environmentalresource valuation to payment vehicles is ofinterest to researchers and decision-makersinvolved in estimating and applying thesenumbers. A conceptual model is developed whichprovides insight into how the different paymentvehicles of a special tax and a taxreallocation affects the willingness to pay(WTP) for environmental goods. Hypothesistesting using contingent valuation datasuggests WTP with a tax reallocation is higherthan WTP with a special tax for ground waterquality protection in Georgia and Maine, USA.Technical measurement and welfare analysisimplications and limitations of valuing andfinancing public environmental goods using taxrealloactions are discussed.     

On the contingent valuation of mortality risk reduction in developing countries

Using the contingent valuation method in developing countries to value mortality risk reduction is particularly challenging because of the low level education of the respondents. In this article, we investigate whether some brief training regarding probability and risk concepts has any significant effect on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses. We elicit individuals’ risk perceptions by providing information on age specific mortality risks and find that people on average overestimate the mortality risk at younger ages and underestimate it at older ages. Our results indicate a significantly higher WTP for the trained sub-sample and WTP is sensitive to the magnitude of risk reduction for both the sub-samples.     

Social Economics and Risk Analysis

Risk analysis studies the likelihood and potential severity of harm created by a hazard. Research suggests that public “paranoia” about environmental risks is a product of mistrust, and that perceptions should carry weight in public policy. Application of social economic's “dual self” framework suggests that the willingness-to-pay approach to deciding whether risk reduction efforts are economical is flawed in its presumption against public values, its bias against the poor and the unborn, and its neglect of risk prevention. If comparative risk analysis can minimize rent-seeking and view environmental protection as an investment good, it may improve environmental policy.     

Returns to scale: concept,estimation and analysis of Japan's turbulent 1964–88 economy

Abstract There is policy interest in factoring productivity growth into technical progress and returns to scale components. Our approach uses exact index number methods to reduce the parameters that must be estimated, and allows us to exploit the cross‐sectional dimension of plant‐level panel data. We show that the same equation can also be used to estimate ‘Harberger’ scale economies and technical progress indicators that require fewer assumptions. Estimates of the elasticity of scale for Japanese establishments in three major industries over 1964–88 are presented. Our study spans the high growth era of the 1960s, two oil shocks, and other exogenous shocks.     

Are Internet surveys an alternative to face-to-face interviews in contingent valuation?

Internet is an increasingly popular data collection mode for stated preference research in environmental economics. However, little is known about how this survey mode may influence data quality and welfare estimates. As part of a national contingent valuation (CV) survey estimating willingness to pay (WTP) for biodiversity protection plans, we assign two groups of respondents either to an Internet or face-to-face (in-home) interview mode. Our design aims to better isolate measurement effects from sample composition effects by drawing both samples from the same sample frame. We find little evidence of social desirability bias in the interview setting or satisficing (shortcutting the response process) in the Internet survey. The share of “don't knows”, zeros and protest responses to the WTP question with a payment card is very similar between modes and equality of mean WTP cannot be rejected. Results are fairly encouraging for the use of Internet in CV as stated preferences do not seem to be significantly different or biased compared to face-to-face interviews.     

Why Can’t I keep my Surname? The Fairness and Welfare of the Japanese Legal System

This study examines the welfare and fairness implications of Japan’s current policy on marriage surnames versus the proposed revised family law, which would enable husbands and wives to retain their premarital surnames. The study compares welfare in these two legal states, with a married couple’s welfare dependent on marriage-surname choice. It reviews the external preferences of anti-revisionists by the fairness criteria of impersonality or extended sympathy. Utilizing web-based survey data, the study conducts nonparametric rank analysis and parametric analysis of willingness to pay (WTP) for surname retention and legal support. Moreover, it conducts a structural equation analysis via a multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model, incorporating surname attachment and fairness as latent variables. The study shows that the revised law can increase welfare and that external disutility of the legal revision is invalid on fairness grounds.