Conditional-logit Bayes estimators for consumer valuation of electric vehicle driving range

Range anxiety – consumers’ concerns about limited driving range – is generally considered an important barrier to the adoption of electric vehicles. If consumers cannot overcome these fears it is unlikely that they will consider purchasing an electric car. Hence, a successful introduction of low emission vehicles in the market requires a full understanding of consumer valuation of driving range. By analyzing experimental data on vehicle purchase decisions in California, I derive and study the statistical behavior of Bayes estimates that summarize consumer concerns toward limited driving range. These estimates are superior to marginal utilities as parameters of interest in a discrete demand model of vehicle choice. One of the empirical results is the posterior distribution of the willingness to pay for electric vehicles with improved batteries offering better driving range. Credible intervals for this willingness to pay, as well as both parametric and nonparametric heterogeneity distributions, are also analyzed.     

Preferences for alternative fuel vehicles of company car drivers

Costs of car ownership for company cars drivers and private car owners are very different. Car use, car choice decisions and preferences for car characteristics may therefore differ substantially between these two markets. In this paper, we present results of a study on the preferences of company car drivers for alternative fuel vehicles and their characteristics, based on data from an online stated choice experiment in the Netherlands. Results show that, assuming current car characteristics, preferences for alternative fuel vehicles, and for electric and fuel cell cars in particular, are substantially lower than those for the conventional technology. Limited driving ranges, long recharge/refuelling times and limited availability of refuelling opportunities, are to a large extent responsible for this. Preferences for alternative fuel vehicles increase considerably with improvements on these aspects, especially for the hybrid and flexifuel car. Under the current company car tax system in the Netherlands, which favours cleaner technologies, these two car types are even preferred to the conventional technology, assuming equal catalogue prices and personal monthly cost contributions. Comparing results with those from a similar choice experiment among private car owners shows that willingness to pay patterns for AFV improvements regarding driving range, recharge and refuelling times, fuel availability and diversity in AFV supply, are considerably different for company car drivers than for private car owners. Company and private car drivers may therefore react (very) differently to future improvements in AFV technology and fuel availability. We finally show that preferences of company car drivers for fuel cell and electric cars depend to a large extent on annual mileage. Market share simulations show that potential early adopters of electric and fuel cell cars can be found among people with a relatively low annual mileage.     

基于消费者视角的电动汽车全寿命周期成本模型及分析

本文以全寿命周期成本理论为基础,从消费者角度对电动汽车全寿命周期内的成本进行了全面分析,建立了电动汽车的全寿命周期成本模型,为电动汽车的保有成本估算提供了方法依据。同时,将电动汽车与燃油汽车就成本进行了比较分析。结论表明,电动汽车的全寿命周期成本远低于燃油汽车,在同等条件下理性消费者会更倾向于选择电动汽车。     

FUEL CHOICE FOR MULTI-FUEL VEHICLES

Consequences of consuming petroleum in transportation—e.g., air pollution, global warming, energy insecurity—have stimulated interest in alternative automotive fuels and in vehicles that can use multiple fuels and combinations of fuels. Consumer behavior in choosing motor fuels for flexible- or dual-fuel vehicles will likely be a key factor in creating and maintaining stable markets for new fuels. This paper explores the implications of recent studies on the sensitivity of choice of gasoline grade to price. It analyzes natural gas vehicle owners' refueling behavior, based on a survey of natural gas vehicles in Canada. The paper uses statistical models to estimate the importance of performance, range, refueling convenience, and other factors in the fuel choice decision. Choice of gasoline grade is highly sensitive to fuel prices. The cost advantage of natural gas also is of paramount importance for natural gas users. However, refueling convenience is essential for overall satisfaction and is a major factor in the frequency of natural gas use. Alternative fuels not only must be cost competitive with gasoline but initially will require a cost advantage so as to overcome range limitations and refueling inconvenience.     

A dynamic general equilibrium model of driving,gasoline use and vehicle fuel efficiency

The paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the endogenous determination of gasoline use, driving and vehicle fuel efficiency. Before vehicles are produced, their fuel efficiency can be chosen optimally. Once produced, their fuel efficiency cannot be changed. The model generates endogenously different short-run and long-run price elasticities of gasoline use, with their magnitudes well within the region of plausible estimates in the empirical literature. The paper shows that although raising gasoline taxes and tightening the CAFE standard both reduce gasoline use in the long run, they are different in terms of the transmission mechanism, magnitudes of responses and dynamic paths of key endogenous variables.     

Pricing the environment: a critique

A distinction is drawn between opportunity cost and willingness to pay (wtp) approaches to valuing the environment. Wtp is the appropriate measure in situations where there is no prior commitment to environmental standards, otherwise opportunity cost measures apply. Wtp would not normally or properly be used to formulate environmental standards. For a wide range of environmental attributes, where the conditions of direct perception of the environmental problem do not hold, meaningful expressions of wtp cannot be obtained. In these circumstances the underlying model of the Pigovian externality which leads to attempts to measure wtp is inapplicable. While a decision rule based on wtp could still be used it possesses no welfare significance. The critique has implications for sustainability when defined to require trade-offs between natural and person-made capital. Sustainability is practically achieved by developing a set of environmental standards.     

Valuing improved hurricane forecasts

The value to households of improved hurricane forecasts is estimated from a pilot survey using discrete choice econometric methods. Each household is willing to pay approximately $13 for improvements in forecast attributes such as landfall time and position, wind speed, and storm surge.     

Measuring the benefits of local publilc goods: environmental quality in Gaston County,North Carolina

Local governments across the United states have been confronted with a growing range of federal and state-mandated environmental protection programmes. It is found that an application of contingent valuation to a local environmental policy is internally valid by theoretically and empirically examining the economic determinants of responses to a hypothetical referendum. The resulting option price estimate is statistically reliable and has a reasonable order of magnitude. Results indicate that respondents are willing to pay for improvements in water quality,but not air qualilty. It is found that informatiion from various external sources helps to explain risk perceptions, and these perceptions, in turn influence willingness to pay. The aggregate benefits of an air and water polllution control programme to Gaston County are estimated to be $13.07 million annually with a 90% confidence interval of $11.07 million and $16.12 million.     

GASOLINE PRICES,GOVERNMENT SUPPORT,AND THE DEMAND FOR HYBRID VEHICLES IN THE UNITED STATES*

We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was $75 per barrel in government revenue and that of CO₂ emission reduction was $177 per ton. We show that the cost effectiveness of federal tax programs can be improved by a flat rebate scheme.     

俄罗斯电动汽车发展现状及趋势

俄罗斯自1970年诞生第一辆纯电动汽车之后数十年,电动车研发与生产基本处于停滞状态。近几年,俄罗斯意识到节能、减排是未来汽车技术发展的主攻方向,其电动汽车产业发展逐渐开始升温。对俄罗斯电动汽车市场发展现状做了概括介绍,对政府出台的扶持政策、配套设施建设等方面进行了分析,展望了俄罗斯电动汽车未来发展前景。俄罗斯汽车制造企业,除研发生产混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车外,也积极同国外合作涉足燃料电池电动车的电池研发。2012年,俄罗斯交通部出台了《俄罗斯普及电动车发展规划》,进一步显示了俄罗斯政府发展电动车行业的决心。     

Energy demand in the transportation sector of Mexico

This paper report results of an analysis of the demand for energy in the Mexican transport sectors, focusing on the railroad, air transport and motor vehicle modes. The approach is an econometric one with emphasis placed on the structure for each mode. For two of the modes a two-stage approach is employed where in the first stage demands for services from the particular mode are modeled, and in the second stage demand is treated as a derived demand from these transport services. For the motor vehicle mode, gasoline demand is considered as the product of gasoline consumption per vehicle times the total number of vehicles, and then these components are related to economic and structural variables. Diesel demand of motor vehicles is modeled in a more reduced from approach. The principal finding is that changes in income play a more important role in affecting energy demand than do changes in energy prices, especially in the railroad and air transport sectors. For the gasoline and diesel fuel demand in the monitor vehicle sector, however, price is of substantial importance.     

中国温室气体减排成本有效性分析——以纯电动汽车为例

从减排成本有效性的角度,研究了纯电动汽车的碳排放和减排成本的特性及其相互关系,对纯电动汽车减排成本的关键影响因素进行了敏感性分析。结果显示:在现有的技术条件下,纯电动汽车的减排成本较高,在万元每吨数量级上;纯电动汽车的减排成本随着其电池容量的加大而增加;减排成本受多方面因素的影响,有较大的下降潜力;当电池成本下降到2000元/kW·h以下或汽油价格高于11元/L时,纯电动汽车可以实现减排成本为负,此时发展纯电动汽车是极具竞争力的减排手段。     

Use of Contingent Valuation to Elicit Willingness-to-Pay for the Benefits of Developmental Health Risk Reductions

We report the results of several contingent valuation (CV) surveys to elicit willingness-to-pay values from the general public for risk reductions associated with decreases in exposure to a chemical, PCBs, in the environment. We also develop Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from the survey using both standard gamble and time-tradeoff elicitation methods to explore the relationship between QALYs and willingness-to-pay (WTP), and to develop QALY weights for subtle developmental effects. The results of the CV surveys are designed for incorporation into a case study of an integrated risk model to monetize the benefits of predicted risk reductions. Respondents showed a nearly proportional, positive relationship between decreasing the risk of a 6-point reduction in IQ (a standard measure of “intelligence”) and WTP, but showed a negative relationship between risk reduction and WTP for reading comprehension as an outcome. The range of mortality risks that respondents would accept on behalf of their (hypothetical) 10-year-old child is 2 in 10,000 to 9 in 1,000 per IQ point, and WTP per IQ point is $466 ($380, $520). QALY weights elicited via time tradeoff (reduction in life expectancy) were significantly different from QALY weights elicited via a standard gamble (p = 0.001). Respondents who answered questions about ecological endpoints first were willing to pay a small additional amount when asked about human health effects, but those respondents who answered questions about human health endpoints first were not willing to pay any additional amount when subsequently asked about ecological effects. This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

Electric vehicles: Market penetration and positive externalities

In this paper, we develop a methodology for approximating the market penetration potential for electric vehicles (EVs). The model is dynamic in nature and explicitly accounts for the competitive effects of conventional vehicles. Unlike many previous models, it does not require an estimation of the time required to achieve a 50% market share. Instead, the model allows one to endogenously determine the rate of market penetration, as well as the ceiling level. We note that some electric vehicle characteristics limit marketability to consumers unaffected by the disadvantages associated with operating EVs. These characteristics are accounted for in the model by the use of a substitution index. The addition of the substitution index allows one to explicitly account for variations in prices, climate, and geographic contour, all of which affect market potential. Electric vehicles are expected to result in positive social benefits by way of reduced pollution emissions and because of the concomitant decrease in the consumption of gasoline that market adoption would bring about. However, the social benefits will not be captured in the market and will not, therefore, encourage the use of these alternatives to conventional vehicles. This means that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles will be slower than is socially optimal, which is a potential argument for government subsidies for electric vehicles. In this paper, we explore a method for analyzing the benefits associated with the adoption of electric vehicles.     

CONSERVED ENERGY SUPPLY CURVES FOR U.S. BUILDINGS

Comparison of nine conservation supply curves for electricity shows that fully implementing a series of energy efficiency measures will result in annual saving of 734 billion kWh (BkWh). This is 45 percent of 1989 U.S. building sector electricity use of 1627 BkWh and represents a $29 billion saving. When translated to units of conserved carbon dioxide (CC CO₂), this annual saving is 514 megatonnes, which is 10 percent of the total 1989 U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from all sources. Implementing additional fuel efficiency measures would result in further potential saving of 5·2 quads of fuel (natural gas and oil) per year, or another 300 megatonnes of CO₂, at a net savings of $20 billion. Fuel switching (replacing electric resistance heat with on-site natural gas combustion) would produce annual saving of another 74 megatonnes of CO₂ at a net saving of $6·8 billion. Thus, total CO₂ saving from these combined efficiency measures are 890 megatonnes at a net saving of $56 billion per year.     

Evidence of a homeowner-renter gap for electric vehicles

This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the homeowner-renter gap for electric vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, the analysis shows that homeowners are three times more likely than renters to own an electric vehicle. The gap is highly statistically significant, and remains even after controlling for income. For example, among households with annual income between $75,000 and $100,000, 1 in 130 homeowners owns an electric vehicle, compared to 1 in 370 renters. Additional controls do little to narrow the gap. The paper argues that this is a version of what economists have called the “landlord-tenant’’ problem, and briefly discusses potential policy implications.     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR DESERT PROTECTION

This paper uses a referendum-style survey approach known as dichotomous-choice contingent valuation to estimate the benefits of restricting the uses of 6.9 million acres of desert land. Statistical techniques estimate the value to California residents of creating three new national parks and 76 new wilderness areas in the high and low deserts of eastern California. The total amount that California residents would be willing to pay to enact desert protection legislation ranges from $177 million to $448 million per year. This estimate hinges on the assumptions that (i) the residents who did not complete and return the survey questionnaire ("nonrespondents") would receive no benefits from desert protection and (ii) the estimate of willingness to pay for the "respondents" is unbiased.     

‘Adopt a Hypothetical Pup’: A Count Data Approach to the Valuation of Wildlife

The willingness to pay (WTP) for a coyote conservation program is estimated using a novel payment-vehicle, based on how many ‚problem’ coyotes respondents would be willing to sponsor for a year. This hypothetical scenario mimics an increasingly popular type of actual market. Data from a phone survey conducted in Prince Edward Island are analyzed using count data models that consider different processes explaining zero responses and the level of positive responses. This is particularly important in the case of coyotes, often regarded as an economic bad. Estimates of WTP per coyote per year around $18–$22 and annual WTP per contributor of about $46–$57 are obtained.      

An assessment of two environmental and economic benefits of ‘Cash for Clunkers’

This research aims to provide a more comprehensive, life cycle accounting of two categories of environmental and economic benefits associated with the $3 billion US “Cash for Clunkers” vehicle scrappage program. First, using a life cycle emissions methodology developed in Lenski et al. (2010), we find that about 29,000 metric tons of criteria pollutant emissions were avoided, for a benefit of about $23 million; avoided carbon dioxide emissions, by comparison, provided a benefit worth $90 million. Second, we compare the market value of scrapped vehicles to the rebates provided, calculating the consumer surplus or “gift” to participants to be up to $2 billion (about $2000 to $3000 per vehicle). This is significantly more than offered in previous vehicle scrappage programs, and suggests opportunities to get more environmental and economic “bang for the buck.” Finally, these two categories of benefits are found to be heavily concentrated geographically around urban centers. About 2% of US counties (50 counties) received 50% and 30% of the aggregate benefits from avoided criteria pollutant emissions and consumer surplus from the rebates, respectively.