中美养老金的投资运营比较

一、美国养老金投资运营概况 1．养老金的构成。美国的养老保险制度包括三个层次：基本养老保险制度、雇主提供的养老金计划以及个人退休账户计划。其中,基本养老保险制度的资金筹集、发放以及投资运营通过形成社会保障信托基金来完成。而雇主提供的养老金计划和个人退休账户计划的资金筹集与投资运营通过退休金市场进行。     

美国雇主养老金计划对中国养老金制度改革的启示与借鉴

1.明确雇主养老金计划在退休收入保障体系中的地位,并与其他支柱相衔接。美国包括社会保障、雇主养老金计划、个人退休储蓄三个层次的退休收入保障体系,其制度设计的总体目标是保障退休者有足够的退休收入(70%~80%的替代率),虽然在不同时期以及不同的收入阶层中,三个层次的作用有所不同。20世纪70年代以前,社会保障是退休收入的主要来源(对众多的低收入者甚至是惟一来源);1974年《雇员退休收入保障法案》颁布以后,雇主养老金和个人退休储蓄的发展使之逐渐成为退休收入的重要来源;随着退休人口与在职人口比例的进一步提高,政府财政负担的加重…     

“一刀切”还是“差异化”——养老金计划的最优合约设计

中国的养老金计划由政府进行设计并以合约的形式提供,成员按照政府给出的统一缴费率和退休年龄标准进行缴费并领取养老金,我们称这种在相同合约下的统一养老金计划①为“一刀切②”,与其相对的即是针对“不同成员特点”的“差异化③”养老金计划.一刀切式的养老金计划虽然可以带来推广上的简便,但由于参与人群的差异性,对其道德风险进行监管的成本很高,已经对我国目前养老金计划的可持续性和有效性构成了威胁.这促使我们思考差异化的养老金计划能否成为一个更为可行的方案,通过设计一组让“不同”成员都“乐于主动”参加的合约,从而在根本上解决道德风险的问题.本文从合约设计的视角,就中国养老金计划的可持续性,养老金计划的差异化和统一化之间孰优孰劣进行了比较,得出了一个反直觉的结论:总体来看,养老金计划中固有的道德风险难以通过差异化的合约设计得到改善,一刀切模式的合约反而能够通过让社会成员选择唯一合约提高资源配置效率.     

企业养老金会计核算问题分析

企业年金制度是一种保障制度，是指企业按照国家政策规定，根据自身经营状况和发展需要而建立的旨在使职工在退休后的一定时期内能按年度领取一定数额养老金的退休收入保障制度，它同基本养老保险和个人商业养老保险计划构成一个完整的养老金制度。     

老龄化中国养老金产业发展之我见

在老龄化趋势日益严峻的中国,着力构建个人自我养老保障体系具有重要的现实意义。个人自我养老保障制度的发展不仅需要个人具有自我养老的责任感与紧迫性,还需要支持该制度发展的养老金产业的发展与养老金产品的完善。本文首先界定了养老金产品与养老金产业的概念与特征,阐述了我国养老金产业的发展现状,进一步探讨了养老金产业的发展策略。本文认为,我国养老金产业发展滞后于人口老龄化的发展程度,应综合从宏观的国家层面、中观的产业层面与微观的企业与产品层面入手,着力发展我国的养老金产业。     

国家养老储备金制度分析——从国际比较的视角

从国际比较出发,分析了现收现付公共养老金计划的结构特征,指出了发达国家公共养老金制度的三个层次,明确了国家养老储备金在其中的功能和定位,并以此为基础分析了公共养老金计划中国家、企业和个人的责任划分以及中国基本养老保险制度的设计缺陷,提出了相关政策建议,指出了国家养老储备金在中国养老体制改革中的多重责任。     

基于随机利率和通货膨胀的缴费确定型养老金计划最优资产配置策略

在随机利率和通货膨胀的背景条件下,应用随机动态规划方法,提出一个连续时间数学模型来分析动态资产组合选择,主要研究缴费确定型养老金计划的最优资产配置策略,旨在使其最终实际财富的期望效用最大化.用Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR)过程来模拟名义利率的动态变化,用通货膨胀指数化债券来有效的对冲通货膨胀风险.通过应用随机动态规划方法,得出在CRRA效用函数下的最优资产配置策略.最后通过数值分析并计算出解析解来说明动态投资策略,可以帮助缴费确定型养老金计划的参与者建立自己的养老基金投资组合,根据其风险厌恶程度从现有的个人养老金产品中进行选择,并提出基于养老金受益人生命周期及不同风险偏好的投资策略.     

浅论养老保障模式创新的取向——从国家事业单位改革视角看

养老保障制度是社会保障制度的重要组成部分.根据国家事业单位改革要求,必须实现传统的养老保障制度到现代养老保障制度的转型,在这一转型时期里,要求以人为本实现养老保障制度的创新,就是要实行社会统筹与个人账户相结合;改革养老金计发办法,强化激励和约束机制;建立科学的养老金增长机制;建立健全企业年金制度和个人养老储蓄计划.     

美国的养老金制度及对中国改革的启示

较为系统地介绍了美国由政府强制性养老金、雇主养老金和个人储蓄养老金所构成的三支柱养老金制度的发展历吏,目前的基本组织、管理方式和积累制养老金的投资运营情况,并对其基本特点、基本经验以及对中国养老金制度改革的启示进行了归纳总结     

老龄化中国养老金产业发展之我见

在老龄化趋势日益严峻的中国，着力构建个人自我养老保障体系具有重要的现实意义。个人自我养老保障制度的发展不仅需要个人具有自我养老的、责任感与紧迫性，还需要支持该制度发展的养老金产业的发展与养老金产品的完善。本文首先界定了养老金产品与养老金产业的概念与特征，阐述了我国养老金产业的发展现状，进一步探讨了养老金产业的发展策略。本文认为，我国养老金产业发展滞后于人口老龄化的发展程度，应综合从宏观的国家层面、中观的产业层面与微观的企业与产品层面入手，着力发展我国的养老金产业。     

The Political Power of the Retirees in a Two-Dimensional Voting Model

We show that the retirees are able to obtain favorable pension policies whereas they belong to a minority in the population. The argument relies on the multidimensional nature of the political process. We consider a two‐dimensional collective choice problem. The first of these choices is the level of the contribution rate to the Pay‐As‐You‐Go pension system. The second is a noneconomic decision, unrelated to the pension system. Using a political agency model, we show that, as soon as the retirees are sufficiently numerous, the equilibrium tax rate may be higher than the tax rate preferred by the young, who yet constitute a majority over the pension issue.     

Are stocks desirable in tax-deferred accounts?

Existing literature suggests that, in order to maximize the tax benefit of retirement accounts, investors should follow a “pecking order” location rule of placing highly taxed assets (e.g., bonds) in a tax-deferred account and lightly taxed assets (e.g., stocks) in a taxable account. Empirical evidence, however, documents that a large number of investors violate this rule. In this paper, we show that such violations can be optimal for risk-averse investors who face portfolio constraints. In particular, while the strategy of placing bonds in the tax-deferred account maximizes the expected level of tax benefit, it may lead to volatile benefits under different realizations of stock returns. By holding a similar portfolio in both accounts, investors can achieve a more balanced growth in the two accounts, minimize the likelihood of violating the constraints in the future and hence “smooth” the volatility of the tax benefit. For some risk-averse investors, this smoothing motive can lead to the observed violation of the pecking order location rule. Our model predicts that such violations are more likely when future tax benefits are more volatile, which can occur, for example, when: (i) the tax rate differential across assets increases over time due either to tax law changes or to tax bracket changes for investors; (ii) asset returns are more volatile; and (iii) investors anticipate large future liquidity needs.     

目标替代率下的企业年金缴费率——基于税收优惠视角分析

企业年金作为我国养老保险体系中的第二支柱,因缺乏税收优惠政策而发展滞后,难以形成对基本养老保险的有力补充。通过将税收优惠政策和企业年金缴费率联系在一起进行考察,建立年金基金平衡模型,计算出为实现企业年金的目标替代率政府应实行多大程度的税收优惠政策。并运用成本——收益理论对这一税收优惠政策进行可行性评价,最终得到企业年金税收优惠政策能够以较小成本换来企业年金较大发展,并能够较大程度地提高整个社会福利水平的结论。     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

企业年金税收政策的分析框架

文章在一个两期政府消费模型中,讨论了税收政策对企业年金计划的影响。政府的减税政策取决于初始的财政状况、偏好、对年金的控制权以及法定养老金的缴存率等。税收政策的有效性取决于企业年金计划的激励效果,当前的税收政策是不同级别政府、公平与效率、长期与短期博弈的结果。目前年金税收政策有效性的前提条件并不具备,政策的重点不应集中在统一的税收优惠政策的颁布,而应逐步完善其前提条件。     

The tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax-deferred retirement savings

Many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax-deferred accounts (TDAs) used for retirement. We show that, under certain conditions, it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase TDA contributions because of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and tax-exemption of qualified retirement savings. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we document that a significant number of households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of saving in TDAs forgo a profitable tax arbitrage opportunity. Finally, we show empirically that this inefficient behavior is unlikely to be driven by liquidity or other financial constraints. Rather, the observed behavior can be attributed to a certain extent to the reluctance of many households to participate in financial markets as either lenders or borrowers.     

Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes

In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47–0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic ‘trap’.     

Income tax policy and lifetime labor supply

A progressive income tax structure provides incentives for individuals to alter their rate of work and their age of retirement. Compared to a zero tax or proportional tax equilibrium, progressive taxation induces individuals to take less leisure in the form of retirement in exchange for more leisure during the worklife, especially at high wage levels. The imposition of a special pension tax provision on top of a progressive tax structure offsets the distortion on leisure alternatives imposed by progressivity. Indeed, the pension tax deferral provision can neutralize the impact of tax progressivity on the work profile over life. The magnitude of these tax inducements in the U.S. tax structure are non-trivial and therefore are expected to alter labor supply decisions over the lifetime. The model finds empirical support using data from the Social Security Newly Entitled Beneficiaries Survey.     

The Political Economy of Social Security under Differential Longevity and Voluntary Retirement

This paper studies a model where the existence of a pension system is decided by majority voting. We assume that individuals have the same income but different longevity. Retirement is voluntary and the pension system is characterised by a payroll tax on earnings and a flat pension benefit. Individuals vote only on the tax level. We show that a pension system emerges when there is a majority of long-lived individuals and that voluntary retirement enables to lower the size of the transfers received by the long-lived. A rise in average longevity will also increase the size of the pension system.