Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility — Australian evidence

This paper examines the key characteristics of foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the period 1983–1997, which can be broken into five distinct phases. We investigate the changing effectiveness of daily intervention on the $US/$A exchange rate by decomposing the exchange rate response to the intervention into various separate components. We find contemporaneous positive correlation between the direction of intervention and the conditional mean and variance of exchange rate returns. We show that sustained and large interventions have a stabilising influence in the foreign exchange market in terms of direction and volatility. Without these interventions, the market would have moved further and exhibited more volatility.     

On the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions in emerging markets

We analyze the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions for a panel of 18 emerging market economies during the period 2003–2011. Using an error-correction model approach, we find that on average, intervention is effective in moving the real exchange rate in the desired direction, controlling for deviations from the equilibrium and short-term changes in fundamentals and global financial variables. Our results are robust to different samples and estimation methods. We find little evidence of asymmetries in the effect of sales and purchases, but some evidence of more effective interventions for large deviations from the equilibrium. We also explore differences across countries according to the possible transmission channels and nature of some global shocks.     

公开市场操作与利率期限结构行为——基于混频数据信息的研究视角

在混频数据信息环境中,精准识别公开市场操作(央行政策利率)和国债收益率曲线(基准利率体系)之间的关联机制至关重要,其影响了货币政策期限结构传导的有效性。本文在混频Nelson-Siegel(N-S)利率期限结构模型框架下,引入央行政策利率,揭示公开市场操作与利率期限结构(水平、斜率、曲度)因子之间的作用机制。实证结果表明:混频数据信息条件下,引入的公开市场操作信息显著改进国债收益率曲线的拟合效果;斜率因子冲击对公开市场操作具有显著的正向影响,而利率期限结构因子对政策调控的反应不敏感。进一步研究表明,2015年以来,公开市场操作对斜率因子的影响逐渐扩大,政策利率向国债收益率曲线的传导效率得到显著提高,我国现代货币政策框架日益健全。     

2011年中国货币市场展望

2010年,货币政策向常态回归,市场流动性总体较为宽松,但流动性和利率的波动幅度加大。展望2011年的中国货币市场,由于商业银行超额存款准备金率已降至低位,银行开始调整资产结构,预计法定存款准备金率的上调空间将低于2%;商业银行可用资金呈中性偏紧态势,预计隔夜回购利率均值在2.1%～2.3%;央票利率基于其价格引导作用在短期内不会超过定存利率,而扩大公开市场规模则有利于应对流动性变化。     

The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations,open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?

It is widely believed that the Fed controls the federal funds rate by altering the degree of pressure in the reserve market through open market operations when it changes its target for the funds rate. Recently, however, several analysts have suggested that the Fed need not conduct open market operations to change the funds rate. Rather, they argue it is sufficient that the Fed indicate its desire for the funds rate. This paper notes that there is yet a third alternative, the interest-rate-smoothing hypothesis, that suggests that the Fed does not move rates per se but, rather, smooths the transition of rates to the new equilibrium required by economic shocks. This paper tests the open market and open mouth alternatives using a methodology first used by Cook and Hahn [Journal of Monetary Economics (1989a) 331]. Finding no evidence that either open market operations or open mouth operations can account for the close relationship between the funds rate and the funds rate target, a variety of evidence consistent with the interest-rate-smoothing hypothesis is considered. The results suggest that many changes in the Fed’s funds rate target are an endogenous response to economic events and suggest that an alternative way to identify exogenous changes in policy is to identify exogenous changes in the Fed’s funds rate target.     

上海银行间同业拆放利率报价准确性分析

上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)作为新的货币市场基准利率指标体系,为货币政策调控逐步从数量调控转为价格调控提供了条件。Shibor 推出后,以 Shibor 为基准的利率互换交易不断增加,在债券市场、票据市场和衍生品市场,越来越多的交易以 Shibor 作为基准,因此,Shibor 报价行的报价准确性与真实性将直接影响 Shibor 的有效运行。本文运用统计方法对2007年 Shibor 报价银行团中16家商业银行的报价,从总体水平与报价基点差两方面进行分析,统计结果表明:中国工商银行报价准确性相对最高,地方商业银行整体报价能力优于股份制商业银行,外资银行仍需进一步改进。     

人民币汇率波动与我国通胀、产出波动：一个扩展泰勒曲线的研究

发挥市场供求对汇率的调节作用,增强人民币汇率双向浮动弹性,是当前我国汇率体制改革的主要方向。本文在泰勒曲线的框架下考察人民币汇率波动对我国宏观经济波动和货币政策实施的影响。通过实证研究发现,1994—2006年通货膨胀波动对人民币汇率波动是不敏感的,人民币汇率传递效应不显著,人民币汇率波动对宏观经济波动没有显著的影响;2007年以后人民币汇率波动推动泰勒曲线向内移动,因此更大的人民币汇率弹性对货币政策传导和货币政策有效性是有利的,逐步扩大的人民币汇率弹性区间对我国宏观经济运行是适宜和可接受的。另外人民币汇率波动也使得泰勒曲线更加陡峭,稳定通货膨胀所导致的产出缺口波动减小了,因而更有利于货币政策当局追求一个低而稳定的通胀目标。     

Intraday volatility responses to monetary policy events

This paper explores the effects of US monetary policy events on intraday volatility in the US equity markets. We examine Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements as well as real-time changes in market expectations about future policy announcements and their impact on the intraday volatility dynamics of the S&P 500 index. The analysis shows elevated intraday volatility following FOMC announcements through the market close, with a spike at the time of the announcement. We then differentiate the volatility spike by modeling an asymmetric response based on the direction of the actual target rate change. Our results suggest that the size of the volatility spike is dependent on the direction of the rate change, with expansionary monetary policy actions having a larger spike than contractionary policy actions. The duration of these volatility spikes is relatively short-lived, with the spike dampening out within 15 minutes. A more lasting impact is, however, documented for real-time changes in market expectations where the volatility spike tends to persist for at least one hour.     

On Intraday Risk Premia

This article presents a framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of anticipated large demand pressures on asset risk premia. We show that large institutions who can time their entry into the market will trade either at the open, or during periods of unusual demand pressures. We show that if these institutions do enter later in the day, they trade in the same direction as institutions which provide liquidity continuously; institutions therefore appear to exhibit “herding” behavior. We also explore how changing the uncertainty of demand pressures late in the day affects trading costs throughout the day.     

Why the computer industry is restructuring now

For over 30 years the computer industry has been a growth sector. Recently major players have run into trouble and many smaller ones have fallen under the onslaught of two major forces. Firstly, what is being sold, to whom, and with what margins is changing rapidly as computing moves from being an immature, high technology market for major corporations and specialists to a mass market for every size of firm. Secondly, the industry has by tradition depended on a confused jumble of proprietary standards to defend market share. Today the phenomenon of open systems is destroying those old defences. Long-term survival will mean not only adjusting to the effects of open systems on reducing traditional margins but also playing by the new rules of the resultant commodity market. Success will depend on rapid readjustment, with exploitation of the internal influences of open systems on the company value chain, in order to slim down yet achieve a new scale of productivity.     

支付系统发展对货币政策操作效果的影响

在以货币供给量为中介目标的情况下,支付系统发展提高了公开市场操作投放或回笼基础货币的效率,增加了货币乘数及货币流通速度。为达到相同的货币供给量目标,支付系统运行效率越高,公开市场操作投放(或回笼)的基础货币可越少。此外,支付系统的发展提高了资金周转效率,增加了银行体系的流动性,支付系统发展将弱化法定存款准备金率提高的效果。本文还探讨了支付系统发展对以利率为中介目标的货币政策操作效果的影响。     

Learning, price formation and the early season bias in the NBA

We test the NBA betting market for efficiency and find that totals lines are significantly biased early each season, yet sides lines do not show a similar bias. While market participants generally force line movements in the correct direction from open to close, they do not fully remove the identified bias in totals lines. This inefficiency enables a profitable technical trading strategy, as the resulting win rate of our proposed simple betting strategy against the closing totals line is 56.72%.     

利率政策对货币市场的“非对称性”传导

运用事件研究法,检验了2007~2010年在通胀和危机背景下中国10次调整存贷款基准利率对同业拆借市场利率的影响。研究发现,利率调整对市场利率存在非对称性传导效应,主要表现在,降息会使市场利率下降,加息却对短期市场利率产生显著的负向效应。究其原因在于,中国利率市场化程度不高和货币超经济发行导致银行体系内流动性过剩。     

终身寿险退保的利率敏感性分析——基于保单保障水平的测算

市场利率变化对于不分红终身寿险产品退保的影响很大,终身寿险保单不能够通过选择较长的缴费期来缓解市场利率变化引起的退保压力,调整预定利率能缓解退保压力;适当的分红政策能够大大缓解市场利率变化对分红型终身寿险退保的影响,但是经营效益差,分红水平低于市场预期的寿险公司产品可能会遭遇到更大的退保压力。     

Equity market and the transmission channels of monetary policy: Before and after the zero lower bound

We examine the effectiveness of the interest rate channel and the credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound (ZLB), using intraday stock returns. We construct a number of industry-specific and firm-specific indicators to capture the sensitivity of firms' demand to interest rates (interest rate channel) and firms' financial constraints (credit channel). We find that the transmission of monetary policy has shifted across both periods. Conventional monetary policy works through both the neoclassical interest rate channel and the credit channel, while unconventional policy is propagated primarily via the credit channel which became even more effective at the ZLB. Before the ZLB the transmission channels operate primarily through target rate shocks rather than forward guidance announcements, whereas both forward guidance and large scale asset purchases were equally important for the credit channel at the ZLB. We also find strong evidence that transmission channels are asymmetric depending on the state of the stock market (bull/bear, tighter/easier credit conditions, high/low volatility), and the type of policy surprises (positive/negative). Our findings are robust with respect to a number of model extensions and alternative specifications.     

汇率沟通、实际干预与人民币汇率变动——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证分析

近年来,汇率沟通已成为货币当局一个重要的货币政策工具。本文评估了汇率沟通在人民币汇率变动中的效力,并就其效力与实际干预的效力进行了比较。经验结果表明:汇率沟通时滞短,能使汇率朝着货币当局合意的方向变化,且汇率沟通冲击对人民币汇率变动的解释力较强;然而实际干预时滞较长,其效力明显弱于汇率沟通,对汇率变动的解释力弱。这两种政策工具的差别表明,汇率沟通在汇率市场是个有效的货币政策工具。     

中国公开市场业务的操作目标：一个描述性分析

目前,公开市场业务已经成为中国中央银行货币政策实施的最重要工具之一,尽管与发达国家相比,在操作目标的选择以及操作对象使用上面,还具有多种缺憾。当前,中国中央银行公开市场业务操作只能选择基础货币作为操作目标,并通过基础货币的调节影响和控制货币供应量的变动。利率的非市场化和债券市场规模约束成为中国公开市场业务操作的缺憾。     

存款准备金率后续调整路径探析

本文在分析金融机构流动性的基础上,对今年下半年公开市场操作与存款准备金率调整如何协同吞吐基础货币作了粗浅的探讨,展望了存款准备金率后续调整路径,并对一年期和三年期央票的发行规模及利率进行了预测。     

The Fed,the Bond Market,and Gradualism in Monetary Policy

We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: the central bank has private information about its long‐run target rate and is averse to bond market volatility. In this setting, the central bank gradually impounds changes in its target into the policy rate. Such gradualism represents an attempt to not spook the bond market. However, this effort is partially undone in equilibrium, as markets rationally react more to a given move when the central bank moves more gradually. This time‐consistency problem means that society would be better off if the central bank cared less about the bond market.     

中国饭店企业国际化经营的驱动力分析

跨国经营正在以越来越大的规模、越来越快的速度改变着世界的经济格局。中国作为世界经济发展速度最快的巨型经济体之一,跨国经营对中国经济社会的影响也越来越大。中国企业面对两个市场,两种资源,在国家"走出去"战略指引下,一些行业领头羊纷纷走向国际市场,开始实施跨国经营战略。中国酒店行业作为开放最彻底、跟国际接轨最早、发展也最成熟的行业之一,为了能更好地利用两个市场、两种资源以进一步提高国际竞争力,参与跨国经营的大潮势在必行。