Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.     

Political Risk and Foreigners' Trading: Evidence from an Emerging Stock Market

This paper analyzes the impact of political risk on foreign investors' trading in emerging stock markets, market-wide and for industry portfolios, using quantified political risk ratings reported in the International Country Risk Guide and foreign flows data compiled by the Istanbul Stock Exchange. We also track the differential effect of political risk upgrades and downgrades. Political risk is shown to affect stock returns, net foreign flows, and macroeconomic variables. Foreigners' reaction to upgrades (downgrades) is slow (immediate) and smaller in magnitude. Foreigners' reaction to political risk varies with industry's sensitivity to market risk, except for the tourism sector, where their response is particularly salient. Local investors appear to provide liquidity to foreigners, who respond to information.     

Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets

Inferences drawn from tests of market efficiency are rendered imprecise in the presence of infrequent trading. As the observed index in thinly traded markets may not represent the true underlying index value, there is a systematic bias toward rejecting the efficient market hypothesis. For the three emerging Gulf markets examined in this paper, correction for infrequent trading significantly alters the results of market efficiency and random walk tests. The Beveridge–Nelson (1981) decomposition of index returns is done to estimate the underlying index.     

A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. Using data for eight emerging economies, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; however, the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than in moments of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention.     

Do Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors Herd in Taiwan's Securities Market?

This paper investigates whether and why qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) in Taiwan herd when picking stocks. The evidence shows that QFIIs herd in Taiwan's securities market: They follow each other into and out of the same securities. We identify how the herding behavior forms and how it changes over time. The results suggest that there is an industry effect when QFIIs pick up stocks. They herd on securities classified in specific industries and also prefer stocks with high past returns as well as large firm size, supporting the argument that QFIIs are momentum traders. Characteristic herding and investigative herding explain QFIIs' trading behavior in Taiwan.