Correction to: Appraisal Accuracy and Automated Valuation Models in Rural Areas

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - The article Appraisal Accuracy and Automated Valuation Models in Rural Areas, written by Alexander N. Bogin and Jessica Shui, was originally...     

浅谈司法鉴定中的资产评估

本文作者通过对司法鉴定的性质、资产价值司法鉴定的认识、资产价值鉴定程序以及资产价值鉴定文书基本要求的论述,对司法鉴定中的资产评估进行了分析,以期对广大读者了解此方面的内容有所帮助。     

Handling Valuation Models

Valuation models are useful tools, but they need to be handled with care. When taking the form of mathematical formulas, they can easily be made to convey a false sense of precision. In particular, selective choice of long‐term growth rates and discount rates can be used to justify almost any desired valuation. The author shows how relatively simple valuation models can be applied by active investors in a way that honors the fundamentalist dictum of building valuations on the foundation of “what we know” and avoiding speculation about long‐term growth rates. The article also emphasizes the role of accounting in discovering what we know, and shows how to use accounting results in a way that not only minimizes speculation about growth rates and discount rates, but actually challenges the speculation about those rates that is implicit in current stock prices. Accounting‐based valuation models are “reverse‐engineered” to discover the forecasts of future operating performance that are effectively built into current prices, so the plausibility of such forecasts can be evaluated with fundamental analysis. In this sense, valuation models are used not so much to discover the “right” price as to identify, and then subject to critical examination, the market's current expectations about future performance.     

第一辑Appraisal与Valuation

编者按:应广大读者要求,为促进评估人员提高专业英语水平,本刊从今年起增加专业英语栏目.本栏目将邀请熟悉评估专业英语的专业人士主持,通过对评估中常用专业词汇、评估报告中常用语句的讲解,帮助读者熟悉主要的评估专业英语;同时将国外评估理论、准则和专业书籍中的经典部分予以点评介绍,帮助读者了解国际评估理论和实务的发展方向.     

浅议企业价值及商誉的评估

评估案例: 有甲、乙两企业,五年前同时创办,当时投入资金均为100万元.企业性质、规模、生产产品等方面都完全一致.因经营管理方面的原因,甲企业每年的盈利能力高于行业平均利润率,乙企业则相反,故目前基本情况如下:     

The Valuation Accuracy of the Price-Earnings and Price-Book Benchmark Valuation Methods

This paper evaluates the valuation accuracy of the price-earnings (P/E), the price-book (P/B) and a combined price-earnings and price-book (P/E-P/B) benchmark valuation methods. Performance of the benchmark valuation methods relies on the definition of comparable firms. In this paper, comparable firms are selected based on industry membership, size and return on equity as well as combinations of industry membership with size and with return on equity. We find that within the P/E and P/B benchmark valuation methods, the best definition of the comparable firms are based on industry membership combined with return on equity. However, only the industry membership is necessary to define the comparable firms for the combined P/E-P/B method. In sum, the results suggest that, when firm's value is unknown, the combined P/E-P/B valuation approach selecting comparable firms based on industry membership performs the best among all the approaches evaluated in this paper.We also find that the P/E benchmark valuation method performs better than the P/B benchmark valuation method and the combined method outperforms either the P/E or the P/B method. These results imply that earnings are more important than book value as a single-number firm valuator over our sample years (from 1973 to 1992) and that both earnings and book values are value relevant, one does not substitute perfectly for the other.     

强化诚信建设 规避执业风险——中国评估论坛第三届年会召开

本刊讯 中央财经大学资产评估研究所发起并主办的中国评估论坛第三届年会于2003年10月25日在北京召开。本次年会以“资产评估行业诚信建设与风险规避”为主题。来自财政部、中国注册会计师协会、中国房地产估价师学会、国家发改委、商务部、公安部、国土资源部、奥组委、资产管理公司、部分地方注册会计师协会、资产评估协会、资产评估机构、律师事务所、科研机构以及高等院校的专家学者百余人参加了此次会议。会上就资产评估行业诚信与职业道德、法律责任、资产评估机构组织形式、行业管理与风险规避、执业能力提高与风险规避、评估准则制…     

企业价值评估中的不动产评估存在的问题

前言：中国资产评估协会在《资产评估准则——不动产》中提出了企业价值评估中的不动产评估^[1],并把不动产评估分为单独的不动产评估和企业价值评估中的不动产评估。无论企业价值评估中的不动产评估,还是关于上述不动产评估的分类,在国内外还是首次提出。企业价值评估中的不动产评估这一概念的提出,应该考虑以下两个方面的因素：一是不动产是企业资产的一部分,     

境外企业价值评估准则概览之二——欧洲评估准则

一、<欧洲评估准则>简介 <欧洲评估准则>(European Valuation Standards,EVS)是由欧洲评估师联合会(TEGOVA)制定的一部适用于欧洲地区的区域性评估准则,也是当前国际评估界具有重要影响力的评估准则之一.欧洲评估师联合会和<欧洲评估准则>都与欧盟的公司法特别是会计改革紧密相关,这一点与美国<专业评估执业统一准则>形成了明显的区别.     

理论比率模型与股票价值评估

本文以回收期模型为基础,探讨相对价值评估三大比率的理论模型,即理论市盈率、理论市净率和理论市销率模型。至今为止三大比率主要应用于相对价值评估,理论比率模型的建立连通了相对价值评估与绝对价值评估,有利于克服相对价值评估的主观随意问题,也有利于解决合理比率的标准确定和股市泡沫判断问题。     

股权估值模型及其比较研究

股权估值方法是建立在预期基础上的。由于关键估值变量的不同选择,产生了三种基本的股权估值模型:红利贴现模型、贴现现金流量模型和剩余收入模型。本文对三个基本模型进行了理论和实证的分析、综述,研究了基本模型之间的关系,比较了基本模型及其引申模型之间的优劣。     

Accounting Valuation Models: A Short Primer

This note discusses basic issues related to residual income valuation (RIV) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) models but has only scratched the surface of a complex subject. What clearly emerges from this 'primer' is the conclusion that AEG is a more complex valuation model than RIV. This complexity concerns both the mechanics and interpretation of AEG compared to RIV. Furthermore, a study by Penman (2005 ) raises a question about the usefulness of AEG compared to RIV. His comparisons between RIV and AEG are rather remarkable and suggest that RIV gives estimates of value which are more accurate and less variable than estimates based on AEG. Clearly, these results need further study.     

境外企业价值评估准则概览之三--国际评估准则

一、<国际评估准则>简介 国际评估准则委员会制定和努力推广的<国际评估准则>(International Valuation Standards,IVS)是目前最具影响力的国际性评估专业准则.长期以来,受传统评估业的影响,<国际评估准则>中的相关内容主要以不动产评估为主.近年来随着国际评估业综合发展的趋势,<国际评估准则>逐步扩大到各类评估领域,并于2000年正式制定了<指南4-无形资产评估指南>和<指南6-企业价值评估指南>.<指南6-企业价值评估>主要借鉴了美国企业价值评估的理论成果,成为当前最具有国际性的企业价值评估准则.本文分析中引用的该指南相关内容取自2003年国际评估准则委员会发布的第六版<国际评估准则>.     

利用回归分析技术评估机械设备的价值

回归分析技术在资产评估中有许多应用.本文介绍了回归分析技术在机械设备评估中的应用,并对怎样运用回归分析技术谰估机械设备的价值,提出了自己的方法.     

关于资产评估方法及其选择的研究与探讨——学习《资产评估准则——基本准则》的体会

由于资产评估方法在资产评估中的重要地位和作用,包括注册资产评估师在内的资产评估执业人员,对资产评估方法给予了极高的重视,以至于在某种程度上这种认识已经出现了某些片面化的倾向.第一,对资产评估中的基本方法与具体技术方法没有划分和界定,人为将资产评估方法限制在市场法、收益法和成本法三种方法的范围内.第二,评估人员普遍认为资产评估方法在资产评估中具有决定性的作用,使用不同的资产评估方法,即使是在评估对象相同,评估条件相同的情况下,也会得出截然不同的评估结果.对资产评估方法只有三种方法的片面认识,一方面使得资产评估技术的运用受到了人为的局限,加剧了资产评估实践中的资产评估方法的有限性与资产评估业务广泛性和复杂性的矛盾.并且使得评估人员在评估报告中关于本次评估所使用评估方法的表述变得不规范、模糊和难以表达.另一方面,评估人员过分看重资产评估方法对评估结论的作用,以及夸大了资产评估方法对资产评估结论的影响,这就加重了注册资产评估师对资产评估方法选择的压力.     

诸城:从农村社区化开篇

从潍河东岸,沿河边大道一路走过去,满眼是不亚于湿地公园的优美景色,四处飘荡的都是栗子花香。路边金色的铁艺(钢铁艺术制作)社区大门时而闪过,有的已经不能算新,但依旧擦的很亮。     

An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out-of-sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan-Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal and Tsiveriotis-Fernandes models outperform the Brennan-Schwartz model.     

切实贯彻资产评估准则 进一步推动我国资产评估行业健康发展——写在两个基本准则颁布之时

我国资产评估行业经过十多年的发展,全面提高理论研究和实践水平的任务已责无旁贷地落在资产评估理论和实践工作者的身上.为制定既符合国际惯例,又能切实指导我国资产评估行业健康发展的资产评估准则体系,从上世纪九十年代中后期至今,我国资产评估行业主管部门、资产评估理论研究者和资产评估实践工作者为此付出了长期的努力.     

Long-Term Earnings Forecasts in the Electric Utility Industry: Accuracy and Valuation Implications

This paper integrates research on the accuracy of alternative long-term earnings forecasts, the gain in accuracy achievable from combining various forecasts, and the power of different long-term earnings forecasts to explain stock prices. The tests are performed on 82 electric utility firms because of the relative homogeneity of accounting data in that industry and because of the importance of the findings for the determination of the cost of capital in a regulatory proceeding. The results are consistent with earlier research findings that analyst forecasts of long-term earnings growth are more accurate than forecasts from extrapolative models. Combined forecasts applied to out-of-sample data, however, did not result in markedly improved forecasting accuracy. Finally, valuation tests of alternative forecasting techniques offered strong evidence that investors place the greatest weight on forecasts from Value Line.     

Valuation of Equity-Linked Insurance and Annuity Products with Binomial Models

Abstract

In this paper we develop a valuation method for equity-linked insurance products. We assume that the premium information of term life insurances, pure endowment insurances, and endowment insurances at all maturities is obtainable within a company or from the insurance market. Using a method similar to that of Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), we derive three martingale probability measures associated with these basic insurance products. These measures are agedependent, include an adjustment for the mortality risk, and reproduce the premiums of the respective insurance products. We then extend the martingale measures to include the financial market information using copulas and use them to evaluate equity-linked insurance contracts and equity-indexed annuities in particular. This is different from the traditional approach under which diversification of mortality risk is assumed. A detailed numerical analysis is performed for various existing equity-indexed annuities in the North American market.