上海市第三产业从业人数预测研究

人数预测的统计方法有多种,但利用ARIMA模型进行单指标短期预测工作,可以预测非平稳序列,对提高预测的准确性方面有比较明显的效果.文章利用SAS软件工具采用ARIMA模型对上海市第三产业从业人员进行预测,从预测结果来看,ARIMA模型用于上海市第三产业从业人数预测的理论和方法都是适用的.     

物流需求量灰色马尔科夫模型预测

针对物流信息的不确定性与复杂性,用灰色马尔科夫模型对黑龙江省物流需求的指标量"货运量"与"货物周转量"进行了预测.预测结果为黑龙江省物流产业的发展政策及物流基础设施的规划和设计提供了决策依据,对提高黑龙江省物流产业的发展水平具有一定的参考意义.     

最优组合预测在四川省人才需求预测中的应用

本文依据相关资料数据,构建灰色GM(1,1)模型和二元线性回归模型,分别对四川省2005-2015年从业人才需求进行预测,然后使用二模型最优组合预测对预测结果进行修正。在此基础上,提出了实现预测目标的策略建议,为四川省人才培养决策提供参考。     

基于灰色系统理论的黑龙江省物流需求预测分析

从黑龙江物流需求省情出发，运用灰色GM（1，1）预测模型理论，根据实际数据建立了黑龙江省物流需求量模型，并运用该模型对黑龙江省未来几年物流需求规模进行了预测，预测结果显示黑龙江省的物流需求呈增长之态，在一定程度上能够为黑龙江省物流业发展提供理论依据。     

物流需求量灰色马尔科夫模型预测

针对物流信息的不确定性与复杂性,用灰色马尔科夫模型对黑龙江省物流需求的指标量"货运量"与"货物周转量"进行了预测。预测结果为黑龙江省物流产业的发展政策及物流基础设施的规划和设计提供了决策依据,对提高黑龙江省物流产业的发展水平具有一定的参考意义。     

湖南专利申请量的灰色组合模型预测

针对灰色模型预测效果不佳,对其进行了改进,并对改进前后的灰色模型建立了3种组合模型。结果表明,和传统的灰色模型相比,组合模型预测结果更可靠,可应用于实践中。最后,运用方差倒数法组合模型,对2013年的湖南专利申请量进行了预测。     

基于灰色马尔可夫模型的物流园区物流量预测研究

物流量预测是物流园区规划和管理的一项重要内容.本文将灰色系统理论与马尔可夫链相结合,介绍了灰色模型-马尔可夫链预测物流园区物流量的预测方法,并对某物流园区未来三年的物流量进行预测,结果表明比单纯利用灰色模型进行预测更加准确可靠.     

湖南专利申请量的灰色组合模型预测

针对灰色模型预测效果不佳,对其进行了改进,并对改进前后的灰色模型建立了3种组合模型。结果表明,和传统的灰色模型相比,组合模型预测结果更可靠,可应用于实践中。最后,运用方差倒数法组合模型,对2013年的湖南专利申请量进行了预测。     

变权组合模型在货运量预测中的应用

文章采用变权组合模型对货运量进行预测.首先阐述了变权组合预测模型的基本原理,构建出以每个样本点处误差绝对值最小为原则的变权组合模型,并对求解过程进行一些改进;然后分别选择单项模型、定权组合预测模型以及变权组合预测模型预测上海市2002～2013年货运量,再对变权组合预测模型的预测精度进行检验;最后运用该模型预测上海市未来5年货运量.     

Z-score预警模型的研究与分析

本文对Z-score预警模型进行了新的研究,将模型中各财务比率的权数及常数项进行调查;并对各模型预测概率进行比较,以获得其预测准确率;然后在此基础上提出P模型(百分数模型),同时用ST公司和非ST公司的财务数据对P模型进行实证检测分析。     

Strategic talent management: A review and research agenda

Despite a significant degree of academic and practitioner interest the topic of talent management remains underdeveloped. A key limitation is the fact that talent management lacks a consistent definition and clear conceptual boundaries. The specific contribution of the current paper is in developing a clear and concise definition of strategic talent management. We also develop a theoretical model of strategic talent management. In so doing we draw insights from a number of discreet literature bases. Thus, the paper should aid future research in the area of talent management through (1) helping researchers to clarify the conceptual boundaries of talent management and (2) providing a theoretical framework that could help researchers in framing their research efforts in the area. Additionally, it aids managers in engaging with some of the issues they face with regard to talent management.     

论高等职业会计专业人才需求与培养

本文通过对高职会计人才需求情况的分析,总结了人才培养和使用过程中的问题与矛盾,提出了培养基础宽厚、专通结合、和谐发展的高等职业层次会计专业人才的观点,并围绕知识传授、能力训练和素质培养探讨了高等职业层次会计专业教育目标、模式和过程,以其对高职会计专业建设和教学改革的健康发展提供参考。     

关于高等学校人才成本的若干理论问题

人才成本的研究至今仍未形成共识,由于理论的滞后导致实践近乎空白,这种状况已经不适应当前高等教育发展的需要。本文从人才成本的界定、人才成本的内容和人才成本的核算等方面进行了探讨,试图为人才成本的研究提供一些新的思路。     

Mixed signals: employee reactions to talent status communication amidst strategic ambiguity

Abstract

Given the sensitive nature of communicating talent status in an ‘exclusive’ talent management system and the complexity involved in simultaneously sending signals of exclusivity and inclusivity, some organisations avoid open communication and instead opt for ‘strategic ambiguity’ – intentionally maintaining an element of secrecy and information asymmetry. However, we know relatively little about the effects of this communication approach as a feature of the organisational context on the reactions of employees. Drawing on signalling theory, we examine the reactions of both talents and ‘B’ players on finding out about their talent status in the context of a company that adopts strategic ambiguity in its communication about talent. The data consists of 24 in-depth, qualitative interviews with individuals with experience of TM in a Finnish subsidiary of a large, US-based multinational corporation. The findings reveal that the contextual effects of strategic ambiguity in talent communication affected the reactions of talents and ‘B’ players in distinctly different ways, but had few long-term positive effects on the attitudes and behaviours of either group. These findings present important theoretical and practical implications for the role of communication and organisational context in employee reactions to talent pool inclusion and for talent management more generally.     

高技能人才队伍建设政策供需适配偏差及矫正:以四川省为例

本文基于补偿性适配理论,首先建立了"政策工具-人才供应链"二维分析框架,然后采用内容分析法,分别对2011-2018年四川省高技能人才队伍建设的41项政策文本以及256份访谈记录样本进行了政策供需现状分析。在此基础上,运用供需适配模型计算和分析了高技能人才队伍建设政策供需适配度及适配关系。研究发现:"信息技术支持"、"政府购买"、"海外机构"和"法规制度"等次级政策工具在人才供应链的教育/鉴定机构环节存在着政策供给过溢现象;而"政府购买"和"海外机构"在劳动者环节,"贸易制度"在教育/鉴定机构和人才市场环节存在着政策供给缺位现象;同时,"信息技术支持"在人才市场环节,"资金投入"、"金融支持"和"服务外包"在企业环节存在着政策供给不足现象。针对目前在人才供应链各个环节存在的政策供给过溢、缺位和不足共存的现实,本文以优化政策资源配置和提高政策供需适配度为导向,从次级政策工具使用的强度、内容、形式、运行机制和平台建设等方面,分别提出了相应的矫正对策。     

基于“校企互动”的物流人才培养模式

文中通过分析我国对于物流人才的需求,并将其分为三个层次:物流操作人员、物流实际管理人员和高级物流管理人才。提出了基于校企合作的培养模式构建,有利于企业实施人才战略,从而获得符合企业特征和个性需求的人才。与此同时谈到了构建综合物流人才需求各方与物流人才供给各方的网络平台,加强物流人才培养信息的及时反馈。最后提出对加快发展我国人才物流培养的几点建议。     

Double-edged effect of talent management on organizational performance: the moderating role of HRM investments

Abstract

More than a decade after the publication of the book The War for Talent, there has been growing interest in the role of talent management in achieving organizational success. Although past studies have empirically investigated the role of talent management and its positive association with organizational performance, few studies have integrated the bright and dark sides of talent management. Using a sample of 444 firms in South Korea, this study finds that talent management has a double-edged effect on firm outcomes, including innovation and voluntary turnover rate. Moreover, it finds that the effect of talent management considerably varies across organizational contexts. Specifically, this study identifies the conditions under which the negative role of talent management changes across different levels of human resource management investments. Demonstrating the dual direct effect and contextual effect of talent management, this study provides reference for future studies on talent management, specifically those that aim to discover the mechanisms influencing the distinguished role of talent management in organizational outcomes. This study further discusses the theoretical and practical implications.     

校企合作模式下审计课程教学改革与实践探讨

高职高专教育人才培养的基本特征是"培养能力为本位,高级应用型、技能型人才".文章以河北某职业技术学院会计专业审计实务课程教学为例,通过分析目前高职院校审计课程教学存在的主要问题,探讨校企合作模式下审计课程教学与实践活动的开展,希望对高职院校审计课程教学有一定的帮助.     

Talent management: context matters

Abstract

There is little doubt that the attraction, development, and retention of talent are nowadays one of the most critical challenges faced by companies worldwide. Despite the increasing scholarly attention during the last years many questions remain, particularly, those related to how (and why) talent management (TM) is conceived, implemented and developed within organizations, not to mention about its outcomes or effectiveness. We argue that organizational context has been underappreciated in TM research, which is an omission since context affects the occurrence, meaning and implementation of TM. Therefore, we edited a special issue which seeks to contribute to advance our knowledge of how contextual factors affect the conceptualization, implementation and effectiveness of TM. In this opening article, we offer a brief overview of how context is integrated in previous TM research. We then introduce the four articles in this special issue and their contributions which addresses gap in TM research and, finally, we offer some suggestions on how to improve contextualized TM research.