HOW DOES COUNTRY RISK AFFECT INNOVATION? AN APPLICATION TO FOREIGN PATENTS REGISTERED IN THE USA

Abstract.  Innovation can occur at the national level under a wide range of settings. However, the leading innovative countries internationally have several common traits, including economic, financial and political stability, which are reflected in various measures of country risk. The purpose of the paper is to examine, for the first time, the relationship between the economic, financial and political country risk ratings, on the one hand, and innovation, as measured by a country's registered patents, on the other. The relationships between various monthly country risk ratings and registered patents are analyzed for the leading 12 foreign patenting countries in the USA from 1975 to 1997. The empirical results show that economic, financial and political risk ratings have a considerable impact on the innovative activities of the 12 countries. Total US patent applications are also influential in inducing innovation in the 12 countries. Such issues have not previously been addressed in the literature on country risk and innovation.     

Institutions and economic development: A Granger causality analysis of panel data evidence

This study examines the causal relationship between institutions and economic development using a panel Granger causality test. The study incorporates two institutional datasets, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and World Governance Indicators (WGI). The empirical results based on 60 countries show that there is a bi-directional causality between institutions and economic development. The findings also suggest that causality patterns between institutions and economic performance vary at different stages of income level. Better institutional quality fosters economic development in higher income countries, whereas economic development tends to enhance institutional quality in lower income countries.     

Who speaks louder,financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil

Analyzing sovereign risk measures for Brazil, we observe that credit rating agencies are more cautious and conservative than the market to report risk rating improvements, and more rigorous in assigning better risk ratings. In turn, evidence suggest interest rates reflect sovereign risk conditions. However, to date, no study has assessed which measure of sovereign risk has the greatest impact on the yield curve. Using data from March 2004 to August 2019, we investigate whether interest rates respond differently to different sovereign risk measures in Brazil. As a novelty, the results indicate that credit rating agencies “speak louder” in affecting interest rates, i.e., they proved to have greater capacity to affect the yield curve. Therefore, the importance of these agencies is not limited only for financial markets, but also for policymakers, as the slope of the yield curve acts as a leading indicator of the business cycle.     

Are credit rating agencies regionally biased?

We investigate claims of regional bias in the sovereign credit ratings given by the rating agencies Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s by considering a wide range of macroeconomic, financial, institutional, regional and geopolitical indicators for 99 countries categorized into eight regions plus the United States. Empirical results based on seemingly unrelated regressions indicate a strong home country bias towards the United States, while there seem to be no special biases against individual groups of countries. We also demonstrate how modeling errors such as omitted variables can increase dispersion in the estimated regional effects, causing agencies to appear biased.     

The nexus between country risk and exchange rate regimes: A global investigation

Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984–2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.     

Does the market perceive a difference in rating agencies?

A frequent and recent topic in the financial press concerns the two major rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. The reported perception is that Moody’s is less credible. In this study, we determine whether the market shares this perception and whether this perception carries an economic cost. Since there are many features attached to a bond issue that affect its yield, differences in bond rating cannot be tested in isolation. This paper estimates the impact of differences in ratings as well as several other key bond features (call and sinking fund features, and syndication) of public issues of corporate bonds using regression analysis over the period 1986 through 1996. All features tested except the sinking fund option for doubling and tripling the amount of funds retired are found to be significant including the variable measuring the market’s perception of the informational content of ratings from the two rating agencies. Thus, we conclude that the market finds value in the ratings from each agency, but that the value is not symmetrical between the two agencies. There is not enough evidence that the market values one agency over the other.     

The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

This paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.     

土地估价机构风险评价体系研究

我国土地估价机构在激烈的市场竞争中面临着各种风险,识别和评价风险是土地估价机构实施有效风险防控策略的前提。本文在对土地估价机构风险系统分析的基础上,设计了包含财务风险、人力资源风险、评估技术创新风险、委托方信用风险、成本效率风险、激励制度风险等非系统风险和政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、市场风险、其他风险等系统风险的多层次风险体系,基于Vague集理论对风险体系的底层指标做出筛选,形成较完善的土地估价机构风险指标体系;给出了明确的风险评价指标等级划分标准,建立了土地估价机构风险模糊评价模型,实现了对土地估价机构风险较为全面和科学的分析评价。     

Country risk and stock market volatility,predictability, and diversification in the Middle East and Africa

With globalization, an understanding of country risk (political risk (PR), financial risk (FR), and economic risk (ER)) and its impact on stock market return volatility and predictability is important for evaluating direct investment and country selection decisions in globally and regionally diversified portfolios. This paper examines these issues in the context of the Middle East and Africa (MEAF) and analyzes 10 stock markets in the region over the period 1984–1999. After examining volatility and predictability, this paper explains how portfolios of stocks can be formed from these countries in order to achieve mean–variance efficient portfolios. This paper generally finds that country political, financial and economic risks significantly determine stock volatility and predictability. The diversification exercise shows that an international investor can still benefit by diversifying into the stock markets of Middle East and African countries.     

Sovereign rating changes—Do they provide new information for stock markets?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995–2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses – both return and volatility – are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors’ asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.     

THE UNDERPINNINGS OF COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT

Abstract.  This paper surveys the history and current status of country risk assessment. The motivation is to understand why it is that country risk assessors have such a poor track record in anticipating the onset of financial crises. The development of the field reflects changes in the composition of international capital flows. These changes have confounded a definition of country risk, especially if a definition is centered on a particular event. It is then argued that the field has reached an impasse, and this impasse is related to the methods of abstraction and the current crisis of vision within the science of economics. This crisis of vision, as it pertains to theories of financial crises, has led to increased reliance on quantitative methods in the field of country risk. The paper concludes by proposing a new direction for the field, the first step towards which is to recognize that the object of country risk assessment is not to monitor for a particular event or symptom of financial crisis, but, rather, to monitor for a particular state of the economy.     

Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch

During the 2007–2009 financial crisis, US subprime mortgage risk exposures led to severe liquidity problems in several other foreign markets. Such risk contagion was caused by enormous changes in interest rates. Although risk contagion has been investigated by several literatures, the magnitude of propagated interest rate risk around global financial markets remains unexplored. Therefore, this study quantifies the degree to which the increased credit risk within the US financial system propagated to the European markets’ liquidity risks. Specifically, using a conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) model, we quantitatively measure interest rate risk of a European country, by looking at the upside risk in distribution of changes in interest rate. And such propagation risk measure considers additional value-at-risk conditional on the interest rate movements in the US. The results show significantly positive differences between European country's value-at-risk conditional on the US financial markets being in a normal or distressed state. This propagating effect increased from 2007, and was particularly pronounced in the 2008–2009. In addition, the interest rate risk contagion is especially severe for some countries in the Euro regions with greater sovereign debt problems. Hence our result foretells the deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis which started to unfold in 2010. Our work supplements the literature by successfully quantifying the magnitude of additional interest rate risk conditional on risk exposure from external sectors.     

Predicting the portfolio risk of high-dimensional international stock indices with dynamic spatial dependence

The spatial dependence of assets, which relates to similarities in economic, political, or cultural systems and other aspects, has been confirmed through empirical research; however, spatial dependence has rarely been applied to financial risk measurement. To fill this gap in the literature, a dynamic spatial GARCH-copula (sGC) model is proposed in this paper to evaluate the portfolio risk of international stock indices. In this model, a spatial GARCH is used as the marginal distribution and vine copula is adopted as the joint distribution of indices. Then, the proposed model is applied empirically to assess portfolio risk. Results show that, first, the proposed risk prediction model with spatial dependence outperforms a model neglecting spatial effects per the Kupiec test, Z test and Christoffersen test. Risk prediction during periods of economic stability is also more accurate than during times of crisis. Second, risk measures for models with spatial dependence are higher than those without such dependence but lower than for vine copula models. Third, models including either spatial dependence or vine copulas alone exhibit relatively poor performance. Fourth, the model involving extreme value theory (EVT) generates the greatest value at risk to pass the Kupiec test, Z test and Christoffersen test; however, this model is not suitable for characterizing international indices with EVT based on negative values of the shape parameters of estimates. Findings offer important implications for personal investors, institutional investors, and national regulatory authorities.     

浅议运用期货风险管理模式规避大宗商品市场价格波动风险

当前,伴随发达国家的经济不景气和欧债危机的蔓延,我国经济也面临下行压力;发达国家不断向货币市场释放流动性,输入式通胀存隐忧;贸易保护主义抬头,贸易战升温;迫使人民币加快升值步伐,而近期人民币即期汇率连续跌停,汇率战拉开序幕;国际政治经济形势复杂多变,局部战事此起彼伏。这一切,对大宗商品市场和金融市场产生重要影响,引起商品价格巨幅波动且周期缩短,使我国企业迎来了改革开放以来前所未有的价格风险。相关企业必须作出快速反应,建立期货风险管理模式,运用金融衍生工具迎接挑战。     

中美评级机构博弈

国际信用评级市场被美国三大评级机构———惠誉,标准普尔和穆迪垄断,而三大机构的独立性,公正性和前瞻性近些年备受质疑,各主权国家的金融安全和产品定价权受到威胁。中国在国际评级市场中要承担起一个大国的责任,运用博弈论的方法分析中国评级机构能否顺利进入由美国垄断的国际评级市场,针对均衡结果提出对抗垄断的评级市场的建议。     

Navigating the New Normal: Political Affinity and Multinationals’ Post-Acquisition Performance

The New Normal in the international business landscape reflects a world challenged by economic volatility and political hostilities. This suggests increased political risk, even for MNEs operating in developed markets. We use the legitimacy-based view of political risk to examine how political affinity between host and home markets may contribute to an MNE’s post-acquisition performance in a developed market. A high degree of political affinity signifies aligned national interests thus reducing legitimacy concerns faced by MNEs during post-acquisition integration. Based on cross-border M&A deals focused on U.S. targets completed by MNEs representing 45 countries between 2004 and 2012, we find that MNEs from countries with greater political affinity to the U.S. experience better post-acquisition performance. We also investigate two country-level factors that intensify the threat to legitimacy; the MNEs’ home market economic status and the presence of a financial crisis in the host market. Our findings indicate that political affinity mitigates risk for MNEs originated from emerging economies much more than for MNEs originated from developed economies, whereas a financial crisis reduces the benefit of political affinity.     

The quality of credit ratings: A two-sided market perspective

This paper presents a formal model of a credit rating agency. I study the consequences of the transition from an “investor-pays” model to an “issuer-pays” model on the quality standard of credit ratings chosen by the agency. I find that such a transition is likely to generate a degradation of the quality standard, which may fall below the socially efficient level. Finally, I discuss empirical implications and several reform proposals to the business model of credit rating agencies.     

Fiscal Rules and Financial Systems: Complements or Substitutes?

We study the effect of fiscal rules on a country's credit rating and their interaction with financial development. We build a rich set of panel data, which includes a novel index for the strength of fiscal rules. We find a positive and significant effect of fiscal rules on sovereign ratings. We also find that this effect is attenuated in economies with a more developed domestic financial system. Therefore, financial markets act as a substitute for fiscal rules in lowering the default risk assessed by credit rating agencies. This substitution effect between fiscal rules and financial development is mostly triggered through the monitoring and enforcement dimension of fiscal rules.     

构建有利于自主创新的风险投资运行体系

风险投资是技术创新金融支持的重要内容,它在中小型科技企业发展以及整个国家创新体系中的作用已经得到了国内外理论与实践的证明。本文在现有理论研究的基础上,分析了风险投资与自主创新相互促进的作用机理以及当前形势下我国风险投资所面临的机遇与挑战,并基于我国风险投资的现实情况,对有利于自主创新的风险投资体系的构建提出了基本思路。     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.