微观视角下中国纺织行业出口增长研究

本文首先对中国纺织工业近七年来出口增长进行了定性和定量分析,考察了中国纺织行业出口和行业全要素生产率的提高、行业规模、行业赢利情况的关系,进而对中国纺织工业出口和纺织行业发展的关系做出较为准确的判断。借Bernard,Eaton,Jemen和Komun所建立的模型,阐明了中国纺织企业扩大出口和企业效率之间的关系,指出了中国纺织企业扩大出口的路径,进而对中国纺织企业如何转变贸易增长方式和实现全行业竞争力升级提出了有针对性的建议和意见。     

广州外向型工业取得重大进展

实行对外开放政策以来,广州外向型工业的发展迈开了实质性的一步。这种发展不仅是工业产品出口实力的增长,重要的是外向型工业经济结构发生了深刻的变化。广州外向型工业的发展实绩,首先突出表现在工业产品出口实力的增长。1990年全市生产出口产品的工业企业约1300家,出口商品基地170多个,出口产值超过1000万元以上的企业100多家,有20家企业年自营出口超过1000万美元。工业出口产品产值的发展趋势在不断上升。同时,工业出口产品结构也发生了显著变化。一是出口产品多样化。     

中国出口商品结构的主成分分析

对外贸易对经济增长的推动作用是很大的,作为对外贸易的基础,出口对经济增长的推动作用更加明显。按产品附加值大小可以将出口商品划分为十类,对按结构划分的中国出口产品进行主成分分析,可以发现中国出口数据的规律性。通过对数据分析,说明中国应扩大出口,进一步优化出口商品结构,以促进中国经济的快速发展。     

中国农产品出口增长的影响因素研究:1995-2013

我国农产品出口贸易保持着稳定快速的发展势头,在对外经济和农业产业发展中发挥了重要作用.本文从贸易规模、产品结构和市场分布3个方面分析1995-2013年我国农产品出口贸易状况,运用恒定市场份额模型,对影响我国农产品出口增长的因素进行了剖析.结果表明:世界市场需求的扩张是拉动我国农产品出口增长的主导因素;竞争力因素对农产品出口有着积极的作用;出口产品结构日趋合理,但对出口贸易的影响不大.农产品出口的长期稳定发展关键在于坚定实施市场多元化战略和优化产品结构.     

吉林省出口增长质量透析

出口增长不仅是吉林省经济增长的一个重要组成部分,而且是拉动整个经济增长的重要因素。一、吉林省出口增长的现状吉林省是从1975年开始对港澳市场实行少部分自营出口,1980年以后,才设立口岸,全面开办自营出口业务,至今已有20年的历史。20年来,特别是改革开放17年来,吉林省出口增长的速度还是比较快的。据统计资料显示,全省年出口总额已经从1980年的0.6625亿美元发展到1994年20.2247亿美元,增长近30倍;年出口总额在全国的排名位次,由1980年的18位上升到1994年的13位;年出口品种从1980年232个发展到1994年1120个,增长近4倍;出口产品结构不断优化。1994年工业制成品出口比重上升     

我国出口产品存在的问题及对策

本文分析了我国出口产品在产品结构、出口市场、技术标准和管理等方面存在的问题,并提出了解决的对策,希望能对促进我国出口行业的发展提供理论依据。     

绍兴纺织业出口现状及国际竞争力分析

纺织产业作为绍兴市的支柱产业,对当地经济的发展起到了至关重要的作用。因此,对绍兴纺织业的出口现状及国际竞争力状况进行深入研究,不仅可以清晰地展现绍兴纺织业的优势和劣势,也能为未来发展指明方向。     

中国出口贸易增长的波动因素实证研究——来自湖北的证据

近年来。中国出口贸易增长迅速，也出现了如高新技术产品、国有企业出口产品和一般贸易出口产品比重等结构性问题。以湖北为例，从出口商品构成、出口主体、贸易方式和出口国市场四角度实证分析了制约因素对出口贸易增长的影响，提出了优化出口主体，推行出口主体的多元化；转变以加工贸易为主的传统出口模式；推行出口市场多元化，努力拓展出口市场等促进中国出口贸易快速发展的相关政策建议。     

金融危机对我国纺织业出口的影响分析及应对建议

受金融危机影响,我国对外贸易进出口受到冲击。据海关统计,2008年我国全年进出口额增速结束连续6年超20％的高速增长,进出口总额仅比上年增长17．8％。就出口来看,2008年1—3月出口3059亿美元,增长21．4％,与2007年同比增长30．5％相比,增幅已有回落;7月以来出口总值则全面回落,出口额同比增速在2008年底跌至一2．8％。在我国主要的出口产品中,纺织鞋帽,钢铁,机械,汽车,化肥,食品,仪器仪表,电子器件,煤炭,家具家电等行业所受影响大。作为我国大宗出口产品的纺织品,其受金融危机影响尤其大。本文分析金融危机暴露出的我国纺织业出口存在的问题,并对促进纺织业出口提出相关建议。     

出口退税对广东省外贸行业的影响

基于优化产业结构,促进外贸转变增长方式的考虑,政府于2006年9月14日发出通知,调整出口商品的出口退税率,后又对出口退税进行多次调整.这时广东省经济造成重大影响.特别是对广东省外贸行业的影响.本文拟通过对出口退税政策调整的方向、力度、目的的阐述,结合广东经济的出口依赖度、出口产品的结构,分析出口退税政策调整对广东经济的影响.并提出在理论上有创新性、实践上可行的应对措施.以保持广东省外贸出口乃至整个广东省经济的持续,快速增长.     

A structural VAR analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on Pakistan's textile exports

This paper creates a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model which looks at the macroeconomic factors that impact the export of both finished and unfinished Pakistani textiles between 1980 and 2011. The analysis is unique in two ways: first, it separates unfinished (low value-added) textile exports from finished (high value-added) textile exports; second, it separates out the impact of aggregate exchange rate changes with respect to trading ‘partners’ from aggregate exchange rate changes with respect to trading ‘competitors’. We find that unfinished, or low value-added, Pakistani textile exports were positively impacted by the aggregate consumption of trading partners while finished, or high value-added, textile exports were negatively affected by these shocks. Also, a real depreciation of the Pakistani exchange rate leads to temporary increases in unfinished textile exports but sustained increases in the level of finished textile exports. Finally, positive shocks in the textile exports of competitor countries lead to temporary decreases in both unfinished and finished Pakistani textile exports, but these falls were followed by eventual increases in the exports of both.     

Little Divergence: Evidence from Cotton Textiles in Japan and China 1868–1930

This paper looks at the role of textile exports in Japan and China's economic development in the period of 1868–1930 as a major explanation for the “Little Divergence” between the two countries in the context of the “Great Divergence” between Europe and Asia. Because of textiles' large weighting in proto‐industrialization gross domestic product (GDP), we postulate that China's initial 20‐year lag in textiles vis‐à‐vis Japan turns out to be fatal for its industry and that it eventually ordains totally different development patterns for the textile industry in the two countries, which ultimately led to different growth patterns for the overall economy. Although both countries saw rapid growth of textile exports, the nature of those exports and the entailed position of each country in the industry value chain of trade were quite different. We then use Granger causality tests to show that in one case (Japan) it is in support of the export‐led‐growth hypothesis (ELG) while in another (China) it is not. Our study then also explains why Japan's industrial revolution took place much earlier than China's.     

Exchange rate depreciation and exports: the case of Singapore revisited

This article revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for Singapore, using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. The evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports, but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports. In sum, Singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation.     

当前中国出口退税率调整对出口额的影响研究

随着全球经济的复苏,今年第一季度中国对外贸易恢复性增长势头良好。以中国为应对2008年金融危机造成的出口下滑,国家再度提高出口退税率作为研究背景。通过对出口退税率和出口额关系进行回归分析,得出出口退税率对出口额影响显著,以评价出口退税政策的客观效果。然而,强化提高劳动密集型产业的退税率,不利于中国出口产业结构的调整,而且退税率频繁变动,会干扰企业正常的经营决策。进而提出建立合理的、较为稳定的退税制度,促进中国经济增长方式转变和产业结构的升级,实现党中央可持续性发展的战略方针。     

绿色壁垒对绍兴外贸出口的影响及政策建议

当前，绿色贸易壁垒在全球经济中运用得越来越广泛，对出口造成了巨大影响。本文通过对绿色壁垒绍兴外贸出口贸易方向和出口结构影响的分析，提出一些政策建议。     

Quota removal and firm-level offshoring: Theory and evidence

Recent literature indicates that offshoring can effectively increase firm productivity and improve product quality. Therefore, global value chains have increased in importance. In this paper, we investigate the impact of export growth on firm-level offshoring. Removal of the quota on textile and clothing products in importing countries boosts China's exports of quota-restricted products. This removal offers a quasi-natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that export growth induced by the quota removal increases the extensive and intensive margins of firm-level offshoring. The impact is more pronounced on domestic firms and firms that are engaged in ordinary trade. Our findings suggest additional gains from trade liberalization: trade liberalization not only boosts exports, but also enhances firm productivity and product quality through encouraging firm-level offshoring.     

Causal analyses between exports and economic growth in developing countries

This study investigates the prima facie causal relationship between the exports and output growth in 30 developing countries over the period from 1960 to 1988 in a multivariate framework. The information set considered for the output and exports models are ω = (domestic output, exports, labour and capital), and ω = (exports, domestic output, exchange rate and foreign output) respectively. This study indentities a feedback prima facie causal relationship between exports and output growth in five countries, export growth prima facie causes output growth in another six countries; output growth prima facie causes export growth in a further eight countries; and no causal relationship was observed between export growth and output growth in the remaining 11 countries. We also found that in 15 countries the foreign exchange rate prima facie caused export growth, and that in 12 countries world output caused export growth.     

The evidence of strategic pricing policies of Turkish textile exports

This paper examines the strategic pricing behaviour (Pricing to Market; PTM) policies of textile exports in the 1990s for a hyperinflation country, Turkey, whose currency has been depreciating continually for the last two decades. The findings show that Turkish textile export categories exhibit evidence of strategic pricing behaviour when the Turkish textiles export data is analysed for different frequencies. The results show that evidence of strategic pricing behaviour is observed in response to changes in real exchange rates for textile exports for closer lagging periods and strategic pricing behaviour diminishes with further lagging periods. Also, evidence of strategic pricing behaviour is observed in a more recurrent fashion with higher frequency data, three-month periods, than with relatively lower frequency data, six-month and 12-month periods. Another interesting finding is that Turkish textile exporters prefer to increase their prices as a reaction if they had adjusted their prices in an overshooting fashion in response to real exchange changes in the previous period. The most important finding of the paper is that while Turkish textile exporters prefer to adjust their export pricing without fully absorbing the real exchange depreciation and by increasing their relative markups for some textile categories, they prefer to adjust their export prices by lowering their markups in addition to fully absorbing the real exchange depreciation for some other textile categories in order to increase their market share overseas.     

Export surges

How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We examine why the exchange rate is important in developing countries and find that the depreciation is associated with a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation stimulates entry into new export products and new markets. These new exports are important, accounting for over 40% of export growth on average during the surge in developing countries. We argue that a large real depreciation induces firms to expand the product and market space for exports.     

Simultaneity in the Study of Exports and Economic Growth

A number of empirical studies have concluded that exports promote economic growth. In each case, a single equation model was estimated by OLS with the magnitude of the export growth coefficient being consistently small, albeit significant. The present study of extensive cross-country data indicates the likelihood of simultaneous determination of exports and economic growth. The rate of growth of exports is then treated as an endogenous variable with the equation estimated by 2SLS in a number of cases in which various plausible combinations are assumed for the system. The 2SLS results generally amplify the earlier findings but tend to show that exports probably play a more important role than was previously indicated. [019, F43]