试论目前拓展我国金融宽度的重要途径--发展企业债券市场的必要性及策略选择

我国金融宽度发展不足，企业债券发展尤为滞后。本文从我国资本市场不均衡的结构现状出发，分析了我国企业债券市场发展滞后的制度性原因、目前潜在的供求状况，提出了发展企业债券的建议。     

我国企业债券市场均衡的理论分析和实证测算

我国企业债券市场的均衡分析与一般的均衡分析有重大区别,即必须以供给分析、需求分析和预算约束分析相结合,才能对我国企业债券市场的合理规模得出科学的结论.在构建了我国企业债券市场的均衡分析理论的基础上,笔者对我国企业债券市场的实际规模进行了测算,结论是我国企业债券市场必然会得到巨大发展.     

论我国企业债券融资信息不对称问题

本文认为，我国企业债券市场没有得到大力发展，其症结在于我国企业债券市场上存在严重的信息不对称问题，无论在企业债券的发行市场上还是在流通市场上都是如此。若不对信息不对称问题加以解决，我国企业债券市场有大的发展将是不可能的。为此，本文在分析企业债券信息不对称的机理上，提出了解决我国企业债券信息不对称的三大机制：声誉机制、法律机制和信用评级机制，以求规范我国企业债券市场的运作，使我国企业债券市场得以顺利发展。     

我国企业债券现状分析与未来展望

本文首先回顾了我国企业债券经历的萌芽阶段、快速发展阶段、整顿阶段和规范发展阶段的发展历程,同时从行业分布、资产规模、经营状况和供需总量分析等角度审视我国企业债券市场滞后的现状。但是我国政府高层已经意识到发展企业债券市场的必要性,而且利率水平降低,企业发债融资的成本大幅度降低,为企业发债提供了有利条件;债券市场供需双方为发展我国企业债券创造了成熟的市场条件;大量资金急于寻求有稳定收益、低风险的金融产品,为企业债券的发展提供了充足的资金来源;当前股市再融资低迷,也在一定程度上促使企业债券升温,所以我国企业债券市场前景将比较光明。     

发展企业债券市场的关键在于增强企业债券流动性

我国企业债券市场的发展远远滞后于股票市场和国债市场的发展，其原因是企业债券市场缺乏流动性，无法吸引机构投资者，阻碍了企业债券的市场化进程。增强企业债券流动性的有效途径是增加企业债券品种和发债主体，调整债券结构，发展地方企业债券市场，培养机构投资者。     

试论我国企业债券市场存在的问题与对策

随着我国经济体制的不断改革与深入发展,我国企业债券市场获得了快速发展,逐渐地从不规范趋向规范,人们对企业债券的认识也在不断提高。但由于我国的具体国情,我国企业债券市场发展还存在一些问题。本文从宏观上分析了我国企业债券市场发展存在的问题与成因,积极探寻解决我国企业债券市场发展存在问题的对策,旨在推动我国企业债券市场的快速、健康发展,为我国经济的持续发展注入活力,加速"中国梦"的进程。     

我国企业债券市场发展的有效途径

企业债券市场是资本市场的重要组成部分,大力发展企业债券市场对发展和完善我国资本市场具有举足轻重的作用。本文首先对我国企业债券市场的发展现状及其存在的问题进行全面的分析研究,然后在此基础上深入地分析了造成我国企业债券市场发展严重滞后的深层次因素,最后对于解决制约我国企业债券市场发展的深层次原因提出了一些对策与建议。     

中国企业债券市场管制与绩效分析

我国企业债券市场不发达的根本原因是政府管制的无处不在。对我国企业债券市场管制的内容和管制绩效进行详尽地分析，可以得出放松管制，走市场道路是发展我国企业债券市场的唯一出路。     

对当前我国企业债券市场发展的思考

近年来,我国理论界和有关部门一直在积极探索从多角度、多方式上拓宽我国企业的融资渠道,但作为现代企业基本融资渠道之一的企业债券却始终在我国发展缓慢。本文主要通过对当前我国企业债券市场的分析,指出其中存在的问题,并提出发展我国企业债券市场的一些建议。     

我国企业债券市场 不发达的原因分析

市场经济建设需要发展包括企业债券市场的资本市场。针对我国的现实情况，发展企业债券更能在某种程度上解决债务的软约束、内部控制等问题。无论从资金需求、还是从企业治理问题的角度讲，企业债券在我国应当有很大的发展空间。然而我国企业债券发展还很落后，究其滞后的原因，与我国决策层对其采取了过于严格的控制措施以及我国相关的法律、制度等债券发展所需的软件发展很不完善有关。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.