Spatial mobility and competition for jobs: Some theory and evidence for Western Germany

This paper sheds new light on the role of regional labor market conditions for regional mobility. We study competition for vacant jobs along two dimensions – between employed and unemployed job searchers, and between resident and non-resident job searchers – within a simple matching framework. Evidence from estimating regional matching functions with data on job searchers disaggregated by previous employment status and regional provenance indicates that competition for jobs along both dimensions affects hiring. Tests of the theoretical predictions suggest that labor market conditions do determine regional mobility, but the countervailing effects of competition between employed and unemployed dilute mobility effects.     

Residential mobility with job location uncertainty

This paper investigates the relationship between job changes and residential mobility. A job change may be prompted by reasons unrelated to factors associated with housing consumption. However, a job change may lead to an adjustment to housing consumption, i.e., residential relocation. Previous studies find that job relocations are positively associated with residential mobility. This paper departs from previous studies by looking at the effects of an uncertain future job location on residential mobility and mobility expectation. It is conjectured that with the existence of costs of residential mobility, a household head's likelihood for changing jobs in the future dampens the household's propensity to move, but encourages the formation of mobility expectation. These conjectures are examined empirically using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and they are confirmed.     

Analysis of the practice of job evaluation in the metal industry in Turkey

Job evaluation's main aim is to establish a fair wage structure. Its main principle is ‘equal pay for equal work’. ‘Metal Industry Job Grouping System’ (MIDS) has been in the metal industry in Turkey for more than 20 years. The results of the practice of the system were measured by the Gini coefficient. By the findings, the average wages of the job groups are different enough from each other by their job groups in the way the wage of the bigger number job group is higher than the smaller except the job group two in the industry. However, the wages are far from the principle ‘equal wage for equal job’ within the same job itself. In addition, the workers make use of bonuses and social benefits. The effect of social benefits of them on the wage structure is positive within the same job group and negative between different job groups within the same company. Nevertheless, the effect of both bonuses and social benefits on the wage structure is negative between the companies because, between them they are different from each other. Job group and seniority affect the wage structure. Seniority has a socio-psychological self-producing dynamic. The distribution of seniorities within the same job group has negative effects on the wage structure. However, this fact for each worker disappears for the long term since the worker of today who has short-term seniority will be the one of tomorrow who has long-term seniority. Therefore, for each worker, the wage structure gets closer to the principle ‘equal wage for equal job’ within the same job group itself over time.     

Competition and accessibility on a regional labour market

This paper presents an empirical study of competition among applicants for job openings in the Stockholm region and a multinomial logit model of allotment of job openings among applicants. The model is applied to the empirical data in a micro-oriented evaluation of accessibility to employment oppurtunities in the Stockholm region. The results suggest that competition has a strong and uneven effect on job searchers' prospects. Extensions and variations of the model are discussed.     

Dispositional and organizational sources of job satisfaction: a cross-national study

ABSTRACT

Job satisfaction has proven to be a resilient contributor to employee motivation, productivity, organizational commitment, absenteeism, and turnover. Utilizing cross-national data from five Asian countries/settings and the United States we examine the impact of organizational and psychological factors on job satisfaction. This study contributes to the literature by showing that while organizational factors, such as performance appraisals and leadership behaviours are important sources of job satisfaction, what matters most is whether individuals perceive themselves to be efficacious in their jobs. Self-efficacy was found to be the strongest determinant of job satisfaction in both, the U.S., and the Asian contexts. Based on cultural characteristics of power-distance and collectivism, this study also examines cross-national differences in the level of public employee job satisfaction.     

Relationships Between Cultural Orientations,Shared Ethical Values,Job Characteristics,and Organizational Commitment for Turkish Industrial Sales and Retail Managers

This study examines the relationship between cultural orientations, shared corporate ethical values, job characteristics, and organizational commitment for Turkish industrial sales managers and retail managers, replicating and extending the study done by Hunt, Wood, and Chonko (1989). This comparative study found that organizational commitment is a positive function of both Turkish industrial sales and retail managers' personal attributes/characteristics, shared corporate ethical values within companies, and task identity, autonomy, variety, and feedback as main components of job characteristics. The perceived level of cultural orientations of managers, on the other hand, differs significantly between two groups: companies with bureaucatic orientations affect organizational of commitment of their employees negatively whereas innovative and supportive ones affect positively.     

Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and CI benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research.     

The effects of oil price shocks on job reallocation

We investigate the effect of oil price innovations on U.S. manufacturing job flows using a simultaneous equation model that nests symmetric and asymmetric responses. We find no evidence of asymmetry in the response of job flows to positive and negative oil price innovations. We then inquire whether firms, when facing positive shocks, shed jobs faster than they create jobs. We show that positive innovations lead to a decline in net employment and an increase in job reallocation, possibly due to search and matching issues. Yet, the latter effect becomes statistically insignificant when we control for data mining. We demonstrate that the cumulative one-year effect of oil price shocks on job creation and destruction was smaller during the Great Moderation, but it was larger for gross job reallocation. These variations were caused by a change in the transmission channel and not by smaller oil price shocks.     

Job evaluation systems and pay grade structures: do they match?

Job evaluation is usually applied in an organization in order to assess the relative value of jobs on the basis of which jobs are assigned to classes of pay grades. Thus, the assumption is that job value scores match with pay grade structures, and allow adequate predictions of basic job wages or salaries in practice. The validity of this assumption is questioned in this article. Data of five job evaluation systems (number of jobs: 16,809) were used to assess the effects of three system manipulations, concerning the number of anchors per scale (characteristic), the nature and the number of scales, and the weights of scales. Total job value scores of the manipulated data and the associated pay grades were compared with the non-manipulated ('original') scores. It turned out that even when two sets of job value scores are highly correlated (around 0.99), pay grade classification agreement was always less than 90 per cent, and in many instances much less. This result has important implications for the use of job evaluation in practice: when a fine grained system of pay grades applies, total job value scores may be deficient. Implications for a better match between total job worth values and pay grade classes are discussed.     

Identifying strategic interactions in Swedish local income tax policies

This paper uses data on Swedish local governments to test for strategic interaction in local tax setting. We make use of a number of indirect predictions from the theories of tax competition and yardstick competition in order to test for the presence of strategic interaction in these forms. Using such additional predictions of the theories serves a twofold purpose—first it helps us establish if the spatial coefficient is due to strategic interactions or merely reflecting spatial error correlation, and second, it helps identify the source of interaction. The analysis provides strong evidence for spatial correlation in tax rates among Swedish local governments. Moreover, we find weak evidence of tax competition effects in the setting of tax rates.     

Change of work schedule and its implications during financial crisis: the case of the Philippines

This study was conducted on the human resource management response of ten manufacturing companies in the Philippines to the financial crisis that affected the country. Instead of implementing manpower reduction, the companies adopted either flexitime or working-week reduction. The study tried to capture the effects of this approach on employees' job satisfaction and work stress. The study deduced that the change of work schedule affected the level of job satisfaction significantly but did not elicit the same effect in the area of work stress. The results negated the expectations of the management. Employees' perception of their work schedule is among the different factors that affect their job satisfaction.     

M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion,distributional forecasting,GAMLSS, and beyond

The M5 competition uncertainty track aims for probabilistic forecasting of sales of thousands of Walmart retail goods. We show that the M5 competition data face strong overdispersion and sporadic demand, especially zero demand. We discuss modeling issues concerning adequate probabilistic forecasting of such count data processes. Unfortunately, the majority of popular prediction methods used in the M5 competition (e.g. lightgbm and xgboost GBMs) fail to address the data characteristics, due to the considered objective functions. Distributional forecasting provides a suitable modeling approach to overcome those problems. The GAMLSS framework allows for flexible probabilistic forecasting using low-dimensional distributions. We illustrate how the GAMLSS approach can be applied to M5 competition data by modeling the location and scale parameters of various distributions, e.g. the negative binomial distribution. Finally, we discuss software packages for distributional modeling and their drawbacks, like the R package gamlss with its package extensions, and (deep) distributional forecasting libraries such as TensorFlow Probability.     

The effects of IT-enabled supply chain process change on job and process outcomes: A longitudinal investigation

Prior research on information technology (IT)-enabled supply chain management (SCM) has primarily focused on macro-level issues (e.g., IT capabilities related to SCM, and SCM design and optimization) and outcomes (e.g., firm performance). There has been limited research that focuses on micro-level outcomes related to employees who actually execute SCM processes in organizations. These employee-level outcomes are important because successful implementation of SCM systems and processes hinges on SCM employees’ support and commitment. I develop and test a model positing that SCM employees’ perceptions of changes in their work process characteristics, i.e., process complexity and process rigidity, following a new SCM system implementation will influence their job outcomes, i.e., job performance, job satisfaction, job anxiety, and job security, and their perceptions of process outcomes, i.e., process performance and relationship quality. The model incorporates a holistic appraisal of the extent of change—change radicalness—as a mechanism between work process characteristics and outcomes. The model is supported in three studies conducted in the context of three different SCM system implementations (N = 278, 282, and 304, respectively). In particular, I found that individuals perceived a significant change in their work process characteristics following an SCM system implementation, and changes in work process characteristics had a significant impact on job and process outcomes. These findings contribute to the information systems and operations management literatures and their intersections by offering insights on challenges related to IT-enabled SCM innovation implementation in organizations.     

Flexicurity and job satisfaction in Europe: The importance of perceived and actual job stability for well-being at work

In this paper we study the effect of a micro-level measure of flexicurity on workers' job satisfaction. To this end, using micro-data from the Eurobarometer survey, we disaggregate the sample of workers into different groups according not only to their employment contract (i.e. permanent or temporary), but also to their perceived job security, and we evaluate differences in job satisfaction between these groups. After the potential endogeneity of job type has been controlled for, the results show that what matters for job satisfaction is not just the type of contract, but mainly the perceived job security, which may be independent of the type of contract.The combination “temporary but secure job” seems preferable to the combination “permanent but insecure job”, indicating that the length of the contract may be less important if the worker perceives that s/he is not at risk of becoming unemployed. Our main conclusions are robust to the use of alternative definitions of workers' types and they generally hold within different welfare regimes and also for different aspects of job satisfaction, mainly those more related to job security.     

Predicting/hypothesizing the findings of the M5 competition

The scientific method consists of making hypotheses or predictions and then carrying out experiments to test them once the actual results have become available, in order to learn from both successes and mistakes. This approach was followed in the M4 competition with positive results and has been repeated in the M5, with its organizers submitting their ten predictions/hypotheses about its expected results five days before its launch. The present paper presents these predictions/hypotheses and evaluates their realization according to the actual findings of the competition. The results indicate that well-established practices, like combining forecasts, exploiting explanatory variables, and capturing seasonality and special days, remain critical for enhancing forecasting performance, re-confirming also that relatively new approaches, like cross-learning algorithms and machine learning methods, display great potential. Yet, we show that simple, local statistical methods may still be competitive for forecasting high granularity data and estimating the tails of the uncertainty distribution, thus motivating future research in the field of retail sales forecasting.     

Self-organizing marketplaces

Dynamics of retail firms in marketplaces are analyzed, assuming that firms compete under monopolistic competition within a marketplace as well as between marketplaces and consumers are uniformly distributed over space. The number, size, and location of marketplaces or edge cities are analytically obtained. Furthermore, extending the model to a two-dimensional space, Christaller–Lösch system of hexagonal market areas is analytically derived.     

Coping with stress in emergency department physicians through improved patient-flow management

This paper provides a method for the real-time monitoring of job stress in emergency department (ED) physicians. It is implemented in a Decision Support System (DSS) designed for patient-to-physician assignment after triage. Our concept of job stress includes not only the workload but also time pressure and uncertainty. A job stress function is estimated based on the consensus views of ED physicians obtained through a novel methodology involving stress factor analysis, questionnaire design, and the statistical analysis of expert opinions. The resulting stress score enables the assessment of job stress using workload data from the ED physicians’ whiteboard. These data can be used for the real-time measurement and monitoring of ED physician job stress in a stochastic and dynamic environment, which is the main novelty of this method as compared to previous workload and stress measurement proposals. A further advantage of this methodology is that it is general enough to be adapted to physician job stress monitoring in any ED. The use of the DSS for ED patient-flow management reduces job stress and spreads it more evenly among the whole team of physicians, while also improving other important ED performance measures such as arrival-to-provider time and the percentage of compliance with patient waiting time targets. A case study illustrates the application of the methodology for the construction of a stress-score, the monitoring of physician stress levels, and ED patient-flow management.     

Employee recruitment and job search: Towards a multi-level integration

This study describes an attempt to develop an integrative model of job search and employee recruitment. Inevitably multi-level in nature, the model demonstrates the interplay between organizational-level factors and individual-level factors in influencing the outcomes of employee recruitment and job search activities. According to the model, influenced by job seeker and organizational characteristics, job search and recruitment activities jointly create job awareness, which is the first step in organizational attraction. Next, depending on the job seeker's current job situation, this attraction leads to job pursuit intention and behavior. The model also emphasizes the longitudinal nature of the process by which individuals gain employment. Finally, since each organization's applicant pool consists of job seekers with some common characteristics attracted to the same position, the model proposes that recruitment and job search can be examined by utilizing a multilevel framework.     

Spatial discrimination: Bertrand vs. Cournot with asymmetric demands

This paper develops a barbell model a la Hwang and Mai [Hwang, H., and C.C. Mai, 1990, Effects of spatial price discrimination on output, welfare, and location, American Economic Review 80, 567–575.] with homogeneous product and asymmetric demands to compare prices, aggregate profits and social welfare between Cournot and Bertrand competition, and to analyze the firms' equilibrium locations. It focuses on the impacts of the spatial barrier generated from transport costs, and the market size effect resulting from asymmetric demands. It shows that the market-size effect is crucial in determining firms' locations under Cournot competition, but insignificant under Bertrand competition. Moreover, the equilibrium price of the large market and the aggregate profits are lower but the social welfare is higher under Cournot competition than under Bertrand competition if one of the markets is sufficiently large and the transport cost is high.     

基于混沌模型的港口竞争力问题研究

目前,随着港口企业的不断增多及国家政策的鼓励,港口企业间的竞争逐渐加剧,因此港口竞争力问题成为港口企业关注的焦点问题。同时,港口竞争力系统又是一个复杂的、对初始条件具有敏感依赖性的系统。本文首先采用因子分析法对数据进行降维处理,得到对港口竞争力影响最大的因子,而后结合混沌模型通过对数据进行分析进而对港口竞争力问题进行研究,希望为港口企业在日常的管理决策过程中提供帮助。