Exchange Rate Expectations,the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones

Expected rates of depreciation within the target zone for the exchange rates of four Nordic countries during 1979–1989 are estimated. Combining these with expected rates of devaluation estimated by Edin and Vredin (1993) we obtain time-series of the overall expected exchange rate change. We can thus construct time-series of foreign exchange risk premia and expectational errors, following which we decompose the forward exchange rate bias into portions attributable to expectational errors and/or risk premia. The conclusion is that time-varying risk premia appear to be the dominant cause of deviations from uncovered interest parity while the role of expectational errors is less clear.     

经济均衡视角的人民币利率与汇率联动关系

利率与汇率作为宏观经济调控的重要变量,理论上它们之间存在正反馈的联动关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验与VEC模型发现,人民币利率与人民币汇率之间存在双向因果关系,但通过脉冲响应模型与方差分解分析发现,长期的联动效应要大于短期的联动效应,人民币利率对汇率的影响要大于人民币汇率对利率的影响。     

Estimating Korea's Exchange Rate Exposure

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the exchange rate exposure of 392 Korean firms by employing not only changes in the exchange rate but also the standard deviation of exchange rates as foreign exchange risk. A logit model is also used to identify the major factors in exchange rate exposure. The empirical results in the case of using the standard deviation of exchange rates suggest that: the number of firms showing significant exchange rate exposure has been relatively increasing; exchange rate exposure is more likely for export‐oriented manufacturing industries than for nonmanufacturing industries; and large firms using hedging methods are likely to show a low degree of exchange rate exposure.     

商业银行必须进行外币利率风险管理

外币利率市场化对商业银行的发展带来了机遇．也增加了风隆。因此．商业银行必须建立起高效的现代利率风险管理机制。要密切关注和监测国内外金融市场利率的汇率动态。对外币走势进行科学预测．建立合理的外币存款定价机制．建立模拟分析模型，建立完善的利率风险内控制度，并加强利率风险管理人才的培养。     

我国商业银行利率风险管理实证分析

采用利率敏感性缺口模型中的利率敏感性缺口、缺口率、利率敏感性比率和利率敏感性比率偏离度四个指标,对我国14家上市银行2006年和2007年的利率风险管理情况进行分析。结果显示：近年来我国商业银行利用利率敏感性缺口模型对利率风险进行了较有效的管理,但1年以上资产、负债的匹配上失衡现象严重,利率敏感性缺口的调整滞后于利率变化趋势;我国传统国有大型商业银行的利率风险管理,落后于新兴的股份制商业银行。     

人民币汇率的长短期影响因素对比分析和汇率波动主导因素界定

论文采用2000-2013年间的月度数据,构建了马尔科夫区制转换模型,在此基础上研究了人民币汇率的长短期影响因素,实证结果显示,短期影响因素中国内通货膨胀、国际市场利率和国内利率的一个正向冲击在10个月的反应期内能造成人民币汇率升值或贬值的累积值分别达到约0．75、0．35和0．9。长期影响因素中贸易条件、货币供给和外汇储备的一个正向冲击在30个月的反应期内能造成了人民币汇率升值或贬值的累积值分别达到约5．5、5．5和16。然后结合模型区制间转换累积脉冲响应和模型区制时间分布可以确定我国某一时期汇率变动的主导因素。分析发现,2007年5月-2008年4月这一时期我国汇率升值变动主要由短期因素决定,2011年3月-2012年1月这一时期我国汇率升值变动却主要由长期因素决定,说明我国不同时期汇率变动趋势决定因素可能不一致。     

Monetary Union and the Interest-Exchange Rate Trade-off

By using a multi-country simulation model this paper analyzes the qualitative effects of joining a monetary union. The transition to EMU (European Monetary Union) is shown to produce interest and exchange rate changes with substantial and countervailing effects on the real economy which can be traced through the model. Observable anticipation effects in the wake of the EMU are substantiated; and some policy recommendations for joining any monetary union are derived. It is also shown that fixing conversion rates at last-day market rates produces a unique outcome and not exchange rate indeterminacy as argued by De Grauwe (1997), Obstfeld (1998), and others.     

Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea,Hong Kong,and Singapore

Abstract

For Korea, the overnight rate responds positively to the inflation rate, the output gap, the lagged real exchange rate, and the lagged overnight rate and negatively to the current real exchange rate. For Hong Kong, the overnight rate reacts positively to the inflation rate and the lagged overnight rate and does not react to other variables. For Singapore, the overnight rate is affected positively by the output gap and the lagged overnight rate and is not influenced by other variables. Hence, interest rate rules for some industrialized countries may not apply to Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.     

Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis

The present study examines the sensitivity of commercial banks' stock excess returns to their volatility and financial risk factors, measured by interest rates and exchange rates, across the recent Asian financial crisis. In general, we found that there were no significant differences among Malaysian commercial banks in their risk exposure prior to and during the Asian financial crisis. The introduction of selective capital controls, a fixed exchange rate regime and a forced banking consolidation program, however, had increased the risk exposure of both large and small domestic banks. The effects of these risk factors were significantly detected in both large and small banks.     

Reexamining the Exchange Rate Exposure Puzzle by Classifying Exchange Rate Risks into Two Types

The “exchange rate exposure puzzle” refers to the phenomenon in which the proportion of firms with significant exchange rate exposure tends to be lower than expected figures. Some studies use changes in exchange rate to indicate exchange rate risks relevant to firm value. However, a different measure of exchange rate risks, which is the volatility in exchange rate changes, can also affect the value of firms because exchange rate uncertainty can affect international trade and investments of firms. This study classifies exchange rate risks into two types, namely, changes in exchange rate and the standard deviation of exchange rate changes, and empirically examines exchange rate exposure of firms in 12 countries. The results suggest that the proportion of firms with significant exchange rate exposure increases substantially, and thus, weakens the exchange rate exposure puzzle when we also count the cases in which the standard deviation of exchange rate changes affects stock return significantly.     

我国商业银行利率风险管理的实证研究

借助利率敏感性缺口模型,文章对我国14家上市银行在2007年至2010年期间的利率风险管理状况进行了实证研究。结果发现,近几年,我国商业银行整体上在应对利率变动风险方面取得一定成效,中小规模商业银行的利率风险管理能力总体上要优于大规模商业银行;但是,商业银行依然存在中长期利率敏感性资产和负债匹配严重失衡等问题。     

新的人民币汇率形成机制下企业规避汇率风险的选择

新的人民币汇率形成机制下,央行继续维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定.但可以预见未来我国汇率的变化的频率将会加快、波动幅度将会扩大,进出口企业面临的汇率风险加大,企业应当通过加速出口产品的结构调整、拓展海外投资、充分利用现有的金融工具等几个方面规避日益增大的汇率风险.     

Exchange Rate Regimes: Middling Through

Abstract

The appropriate exchange rate regime, in the context of integration of currency markets with financial markets and of large international capital flows, continues to be a policy dilemma. It is found that the majority of countries are moving towards somewhat higher exchange and lower interest rate volatility. Features of foreign exchange (forex) markets could be partly motivating these choices. A model with noise trading, non-traded goods and price rigidities shows that bounds on the volatility of the exchange rate can lower noise trading in forex markets; decrease fundamental variance and improve real fundamentals in an emerging market economy (EME); and give more monetary policy autonomy. Central banks prefer secret interventions where they have an information advantage or fear destabilizing speculation. But in the model discussed in this article, short-term pre-announced interventions can control exchange rate volatility, pre-empt deviations in prices and real exchange rates, and allow markets to help central banks achieve their targets. The long-term crawl need not be announced. In conclusion, the regime's applicability to an EME is explored.     

Exchange Rate Volatility,Heterogeneous Firms and Market Concentration

With the gradual promotion of market‐oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate is increasing. How to deal with the impact of exchange rate volatility on Chinese exports is an important challenge faced by China. This paper finds that although exchange rate volatility, as a whole, has a negative impact on exports, high‐productivity exporters are less prone to exchange rate volatility shock in both intensive and extensive margins. As high‐productivity firms are less affected by exchange rate risk, they account for larger market shares. This paper, from a new perspective, provides evidence that increasing productivity helps mitigate the negative impact of exchange volatility on exports.     

Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run relationship between exchange rate and its determinants based on the flexible-price monetary model. The multivariate cointegration approach is adopted to attain our objective of this study. The empirical results provide evidence favoring the monetary approach to exchange rate for a small and open emerging economy, namely Thailand. In addition, the validity of the underlying assumptions of the monetary approach to the determination of exchange rate is established. The findings suggest that exchange rate players may effectively monitor and forecast the exchange rate movement via the money supplies, incomes, and interest rates variables of both Thailand and Japan. Besides, one has to follow the economic development of Thailand's major trading partner, Japan, to understanding the movement of exchange rate for Thailand. Moreover, our findings add new insights to accompany previous studies that documented the important influence of the US in the emerging Asian economies.     

久期和资产负债管理中的利率免疫策略

文章对目前广泛应用的利率风险度量方法包括久期、修正久期和凸度进行了深入分析。运用久期—凸度方法,研究了资产负债管理的利率免疫策略。针对利率变动的结构因素(即各种金融资产的利率同时上升或下降相同的数额)的局限,通过建立数学模型,对此方法进行了一定的改进,从而为人们在资产负债管理中实行利率免疫策略提供一种参考。     

Risk and Asian Exchange Rate Regimes

Abstract

A panel regression gives evidence that more flexibility in Asian exchange rates reduces risk associated with bank borrowing abroad, but deviations from mean exchange rates, and from the renminbi, increase risk. Since the exchange rate regime affects bank behavior and the incentives to hedge, the results broadly support the bank run over the moral hazard view of twin banking and currency crisis. The results suggest that flexibility in exchange rates is required for Asian EMEs, but the flexibility has to be limited, and it depends on more flexibility in the renminbi. This has implications for current global imbalances in reserves and feasible adjustment paths.     

基于汇率错位视角的人民币汇率制度转换概率研究

本文基于汇率错位的视角,运用二元模型对东南亚6国汇率错位幅度与汇率制度转换概率的关系进行实证分析。在此基础上,对人民币汇率制度的转换概率进行研究。得出结论:人民币汇率水平的高低与汇率制度的稳定性有很强的关系,即人民币汇率错位幅度与汇率制度转换概率呈现明显的正相关关系。汇率错位是汇率制度转换的原因,汇率错位幅度越大,汇率制度转换的概率越大。因此,若要维持人民币汇率制度的稳定,保持人民币汇率水平的基本稳定至关重要。就当前来说,人民币汇率制度发生转换的概率不大。     

项目融资中的金融风险管理——基于境外的项目发起方

本文就是从金融风险入手,把金融风险分为汇率风险和利率风险,针对不同的风险提出了相应的策略,从而给境外的项目发起方提供一些建议。     

What Drives Monetary Policy in Post-Crisis East Asia? Interest Rate or Exchange Rate Monetary Policy Rules

This paper estimates a simple small open macroeconomic model to analyse the effectiveness of monetary policy rules (MPRs) where either the nominal interest rate or the nominal exchange rate is the policy instrument. The aim is to ascertain which of those MPRs are best suited for a selection of inflation targeting economies of Asia. Normally, one would associate inflation targeting with interest rate rules but it is thought that, due to fear of floating, exchange rate rules may well be more effective given the openness of these economies. It is found that interest rate rules seem to better reflect the prevailing policy regime than exchange rate rules. It is also found that stronger relationships pertaining to the interest rate rules are found in the case of Korea and Thailand than for Indonesia and the Philippines. Exchange rates appear to be very influential in determining the value of the nominal interest rate but not in a policy sense.