Income Inequality: A Tale of Two Cycles?

Building on previous work, this paper documents the changes in income inequality that have occurred over the past 20 years, right up until the late 1990s. In particular, we are interested in whether or not the path of inequality in the most recent economic cycle differed from that observed in the 1980s. The robustness of the results is investigated using innovative statistical techniques, in an attempt to identify whether or not the observed changes represent real increases or decreases in inequality or whether they can be attributed simply to sampling variation between years. Finally, some preliminary results are presented which attempt to identify some of the reasons underlying the observed trends in income inequality, with a particular focus on the role of the labour market.     

Gini Indices and the Redistribution of Income

Just as the Gini inequality index captures people's relative deprivation (Yitzhaki, 1979), so, we show in this paper, Gini-based progressivity and horizontal inequity indices capture individual perceptions of relative fiscal harshness and ill-fortune. In fact, we find that these links between individualistic perceptions and the measurement of the distribution and redistribution of income generalise to the family of indices based on the extended Ginis of Donaldson and Weymark (1980) and Yitzhaki (1983). Through 'leaky bucket' experiments, we also suggest how we can parameterise the inequality aversion present in these indices. Analysis of the Canadian gross and net income distributions (conducted using recently developed statistical inference procedures) shows the distribution and the aggregation of these individual indicators of relative deprivation, fiscal harshness and ill-fortune in 1981 and in 1990.     

公积金制度对住房财富不平等的影响效应分析 ——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

住房公积金制度对住房财富积累具有较强的中介效应,其再分配机制对住房财富水平有显著影响。为此,结合中国家庭金融调查数据,引入结构方程模型和不平等回归分解法,对其影响路径进行系统性研究发现：我国住房公积金制度对高收入和高社会地位群体的住房财富积累具有稳定的正向再分配效应,对住房财富不平等的贡献较高。按照公积金的代际支付转移及分配差异的负反馈循环机制,这种不平等远未达到其最大影响。未来通过政策调整和结构优化,在公积金制度公平性和财富分配方面还蕴含着巨大的改善空间。     

Unemployment Risk, the Housing Market and the Effects of Decentralised Redistribution

The paper examines the general equilibrium effects of benefits to the unemployed and the taxes to pay for them in a two country model in which people move to maximise expected utility. Wages are set by unions, and unemployment emerges as an equilibrium phenomenon. Wage setting institutions are found to be important for assessing the welfare effects of redistribution from the employed to the unemployed. The analysis finds that, with monopoly unions, more redistribution tends to repel population from the country increasing redistribution and to reduce welfare in both countries, but the opposite is the case in a model in which wage setting does not depend on unemployment benefits and taxes. These effects are dampened by the combination of risk averse consumers and inelastic housing supply.     

Redistribution as Social Insurance and Capital Market Integration

In this paper we claim that enhanced economic integration can call for an increase in redistribution among workers. When individuals are risk averse and no human capital insurance is available, the share of workers who choose to invest in specific human capital will be inefficiently low. Redistribution among workers plays the role of the missing insurance market by making the investment in the specific skills more attractive. Capital market integration has two different effects. On the one hand it makes labour income taxation more distortionary, therefore reducing the optimal tax rate on labour. On the other hand, it increases the variance of specific labour wage and widens the scope for risk protection of specific human capital through the redistribution implemented by a labour income tax. We show that the insurance effect of redistribution can be stronger than the distortionary effect, so that the optimal tax rate on labour income can increase when capital markets become more integrated.     

The Impact of Firing Costs on Turnover and Unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian Labour Market Reform

Reductions in firing costs are often advocated as a way of increasing the dynamism of labour markets in both developed and less developed countries. Evidence from Europe and the U.S. on the impact of firing costs has, however, been mixed. Moreover, legislative changes both in Europe and the U.S. have been limited. This paper, instead, examines the impact of the Colombian Labour Market Reform of 1990, which substantially reduced dismissal costs. I estimate the incidence of a reduction in firing costs on worker turnover by exploiting the temporal change in the Colombian labour legislation as well as the variability in coverage between formal and informal sector workers. Using a grouping estimator to control for common aggregate shocks and selection, I find that the exit hazard rates into and out of unemployment increased after the reform by over 1\% for formal workers (covered by the legislation) relative to informal workers (uncovered). The increase of the hazards implies a net decrease in unemployment of a third of a percentage point, which accounts for about one quarter of the fall in unemployment during the period of study.     

Does Tax Evasion Affect Economic Crime?*

This paper examines the effect of tax evasion on criminal activities in Italy. Specifically, we consider three types of crime that are related to economic determinants: property crimes (including robbery, theft and car theft), fraud and usury. We estimate different econometric models using annual data from the Italian provinces (NUTS-3 level) for the 2004–12 period. We find that tax evasion positively affects economic crimes, and our results suggest that tax evasion is an incentive to engage in criminal activities, in addition to more standard determinants that we include in the analysis, such as labour market opportunities and deterrence. Moreover, these crimes demonstrate different levels of persistence over time and reflect different adjustment costs.     

Unemployment,Government Spending and the Laffer Effect*

The paper studies the effects of income tax rate changes in a general equilibrium model with frictional unemployment. Laffer curve effects, by which a tax rate reduction may increase the level of government spending or its share in output, are shown to be possible under certain conditions. These are the presence of unemployment benefit payments, government budget balance through fiscal spending adjustment and limited quantitative importance of labour reallocation costs. Endogenous government spending acts as a fiscal accelerator if the fiscal burden of unemployment benefit payments is large, but reduces the employment effects of tax rate cuts if it is low.     

决不能轻易否定"劳动生产力和商品价值变化成反比"的关系

马克思《资本论》中的劳动价值理论是一个完整的科学理论体系。其经典命题是:劳动生产力和商品的价值变化成反比,和商品的使用价值量变化成正比。实践证明马克思的这一理论是极其正确的,我们决不能随意地否定马克思这一科学的理论。