Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development programs. We present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of behavior within local government through use of a scenario planning-based approach. Our aim was to facilitate the organizational actors' conduct of investigation of the ‘limits of the possible’ for a range of plausible futures and determination of strategic responses to these. Participants used their own current knowledge and understanding as a basis for development, with the introduction of external ‘expertise’ to challenge their thinking and to expand their understanding. Following this, we facilitated the participants' elucidation of key uncertainties on the future, exploration of the relationships between them and possible outcomes. The participants then constructed scenarios that outlined four possible and plausible futures. These held explicit meaning for the participants, enabled them to identify implications of each possible future in relation to structure and service requirements and informed analysis of current structure, service, etc. We compare and contrast the process and outcomes of our scenario-planning intervention (based on intuitive logics) with both those of other futures methodologies (decision analysis, Delphi and environmental scanning) and with other scenario methodologies (trend-impact analysis and cross-impact analysis). We argue that the external facilitation of internal generation of knowledge, understanding and meaning, and of exploration of the limits of the possible for the future, is a valuable tool for comprehending strategic choices. We conclude that our scenario approach, utilizing intuitive logics, enables organizational actors to make sense of the complexities and ambiguities that they face and so facilitates strategic change.     

90年代西方经济地理学的文化研究趋向评述

９０年代后半期以来西方经济地理研究呈现出一种文化研究趋向,那重视文化因素在经济活动空间格局的形成和演变中的作用,着重从历史和文化的角度把握世界、国家和区域的时空变化,强调经社会文化与政治经济相互作用的动态过程中来认识资源、资本和劳动力等生产要素的空间特征,通过认识具体区域的基本特性来氢气区域发展的本质,从而更准确地认识地方多样性和地理差异,本文在简要回顾现代经济地理的主要理论流派及其阶段性特征的基     

主导产业提升县域城市化水平的作用机制分析——以浙江义乌市为例

批发业作为主导产业对义乌城市化水平的提升是历史与文化、制度与管理、经济发展和规划建设等多因素共同作用的结果,其作用机制表现为连锁反应过程。即:制度作用推动主导产业的形成与发展,带动义乌城市规模的扩张和空间结构的优化;批发业联动其他产业发展,城市功能显著提升、各种资源和要素集聚能力增强;集聚作用驱动城市空间规模进一步扩大、空间结构发生新的变化,导致扩散作用增强;批发业的空间集聚与扩散加速了义乌城市化水平的提升,促进义乌市影响的空间范围扩大,成为浙中区域的经济中心。     

Black Education: Myths and Tragedies

This article explores elements of apologetics in conventional economics. It argues that much of the latter is apologetics in the form of the ideology or utopia of laissez-faire, and many of its representatives are apologists of the latter. The article first examines instances of unconditional laissez-faire apologetics and extreme apologists. Then it presents cases of qualified laissez-faire apologetics and moderate apologists. Lastly, it identifies some examples of laissez-faire non- and anti-apologetics and critics expressing discontent with apologetic economics. The article aims to contribute to a fuller understanding of the relationship between economics and social science overall and ideology, politics, and related non-scientific elements.     

The shading and distancing of commerce: When internalization is not enough

A political economy of degradation and of sustainability should account not only for the full range of production costs but the sources of those costs. It should consider how the pursuit of wealth can, deliberately or not, lead to uncounted costs and unaccountable actors. This article explores the conditions of cost generation and externalization, especially those that are largely unintended and inadvertent. It shows how the pursuit of wealth, the expansion of markets, the mobility of capital, and the entanglements of production processes can lead to the unwitting generation and displacement of costs. It analyzes competitive business strategy and patterns of production and consumption for their contribution to such costs. Business strategy and state policy tend to create a never-ending search for frontiers, however simulated and however unecological they may be. The costs generated in those frontiers are a function of shading, that is, obscuring of costs, and distancing, the separation of production and consumption decisions, both of which impede ecological and social feedback and create cognitive, institutional, and ethical lags between initial benefits and eventual full costs. As distance increases along dimensions of geography, culture, bargaining power, or agency, negative feedback loops are severed, stakeholders expand while decision making contracts, environmental problems are displaced, and shading and cost externalization increase. The likelihood of sustainable resource use increases as distance is lowered, as institutions locate decision authority in those who receive negative ecological feedback and who have the capacity and incentives to act on that feedback, and as the burden of proof for economic interventions shifts to the interveners.     

Macroeconomic stability and economic justice

This article presents a proposal to broaden the right to acquire capital with the earnings of capital as a means of promoting sustainable economic recovery and growth. It would open the markets for real and financial capital acquisition more fully and competitively to poor and working people (1) to distribute more broadly the earnings of capital and (2) to profitably employ more capital and labor. Both the recession and the strategies advanced to promote economic recovery may be viewed as responses to the prospect of inadequate present and future earning capacity of both consumers and producers (1) to purchase what can physically be produced and (2) to repay existent and anticipated debt obligations. To increase the prospects of sufficient, sustainable earning capacity, the proposal advanced in this article would extend to all people the same protections and benefits presently provided by government that facilitate market transactions whereby capital is acquired with the earnings of capital primarily for well-capitalized people. Although in theory, all people in a market economy are able to acquire capital with the earnings of capital, reliable empirical data reveal that as a practical matter, the major determinant of the ability of individuals to acquire capital with the earnings of capital is the existing distribution of capital ownership. The theory of “binary” economic growth underlying this proposal holds that the market return on capital is positively related to the distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital. The prospect of a broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital carries with it the prospect of more broadly distributed earning capacity in future years, which in turn will provide the market incentives to profitably employ more capital and labor in earlier years. The idea that the broader distribution of capital acquisition with the earnings of capital will promote growth is not found in any of the widely accepted theories and models of economic growth such as those proposed by Schumpeter, Solow, Roemer, and Lucas. By opening to all people the institutions of corporate finance, banking, insurance, government loans and guaranties, and monetary policy (the very institutions presently relied upon by the Federal Government to stimulate the economy) the practical ability to acquire capital with the earnings of capital can be more broadly extended to all people with the result that greatly enhanced prospects for greater and more broadly distributed earning capacity and growth can be reasonably expected and realized by all.     

Rights and wrongs of economic modelling: refining Rodrik

ABSTRACT

This is a critical discussion and proposed refinement of the inspiring account of the successes and failures of economic modelling sketched in Dani Rodrik’s Economics Rules. The refinements make use of a systematic framework of the structure of scientific modelling. The issues include distinguishing the discipline of economics from the behaviour and attitudes of economists as targets of normative assessment; nature and sources of success and failure in modelling; the key role of model commentary; model transparency; purposes and audiences of modelling; the nature of critical assumptions; negligibility, applicability, and tractability in modelling; the possibility of generally applicable models; and economics fundamentalism. The proposed refinements submit sharper formulations for some of Rodrik’s ideas and supplement others, but they also reveal tensions and relieve some – not yet all – of these.     

长江中下游省市众创空间运行效率评价及创新溢出研究

在“大众创业、万众创新”的背景下,我国众创空间数量呈现爆发式增长。为了提高众创空间运行效率以及促进各地众创空间协同发展,以长江中下游各省市众创空间为研究对象,采用数据包络分析方法和投影分析法分析众创空间创新资源投入产出效率,进一步利用莫兰指数和面板空间杜宾模型探索区际创新资源流动可行性与众创空间协同发展路径。研究发现：近年来长江中下游各省域众创空间运行效率绝大多数时候未达到有效,财政投入冗余度最高,在孵企业当年获得投资总额、拥有有效知识产权数、总收入存在不同程度的不足;各省域众创空间发展水平存在空间相关性,创业导师投入、技术市场成交额对周边省市众创空间发展水平具有显著正向影响,高校和科研机构数量、地区生产总值对周边省市众创空间发展水平具有显著负向影响。     

社会现代化与中国现代国家建构

中国现代国家构建需要置于社会现代化进程中考察。必然围绕社会与社会发展、公平正义及公共福利共享,促成社会结构的合理重建和良性整合,最终改善现代“社会人”的生活质量和生存状态。,通过公共服务的均衡化、公共福利的社会化、政治文化的世俗化、社会发展的科学化以及制度供给的本土化和制度调试的常态化等,实现国家职能范围的可控性、国家权威的合法性以及国家能力的支配性。     

基于创新主体视角的专利交易差异与区域网络研究

专利交易是创新主体回收研发成本、形成创新良性循环的重要途径。基于创新主体视角深入探讨专利交易差异及区域网络有利于不同创新主体制定差异化专利交易政策，从而加快实现创新引领经济高质量发展。采用统计分析法和社会网络分析法，以2018年中国专利许可与转让数据为研究对象，探讨各类创新主体专利交易差异与专利区域流动网络。研究发现:①不同类型创新主体专利交易特征不同，创新主体类型不同，相关专利特征也不同；②不同类型创新主体对区域经济的影响作用不同，高等院校和科研机构主要对当地经济发展产生积极影响，企业和个人则对多地甚至全国技术发展具有积极影响。因此，不同类型创新主体应整合内外部资源，通过合作研发扩大专利交易范围；政府应建立完善的专利交易评价体系和专利服务体系，推动科技成果转化与应用。研究结论有利于促进不同类型创新主体科技成果转化，为加快创新型国家建设提供参考。     

交易成本与创新治理视阈下创新群体组织性质及治理模式分析

从科技管理到创新治理，是新时期实施创新驱动发展战略、建设创新型国家在科技政策与科技治理领域的必然要求。经济学中的交易成本治理模式理论是分析组织性质与治理模式的经典理论。创新研究群体是受自然科学基金资助的我国基础研究高水平科研创新团队，从交易成本与创新治理视角分析其组织性质、合作网络与治理模式，具有重要理论意义与实践价值。研究发现，创新研究群体是科研合作网络组织与中间组织，治理模式走向为网络治理。明确创新群体组织性质，并实施网络治理模式，有助于促进研究目标实现与高水平团队培养。     

生态文明视野下自然保护地规划的研究 与思考

建立以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系，是贯彻习近平生态文明思想的重大举措。自然保护地①作为生态文明建设的核心载体和重要区域，其规划也应积极践行“人与自然和谐共生、绿水金山就是金山银山、统筹山水林田湖草系统治理”[1]等生态文明思想和理念，以目标和问题为导向，针对中国自然保护地的特征和困难，将生态优先、科学利用、统筹社区发展等方面作为规划研究的重点，使规划既成为各自然保护地工作的基础和管理的依据，也成为生态文明建设的重要技术手段。     

我国科技项目中机会主义行为治理研究

科技项目是科技资源配置的最小单位，决定了科技资源的整体配置效率。由于科技项目中可能存在机会主义行为，致使我国科技资源配置效率较低。学术自尊、信息披露、制度执行、内部监督、科技评价和结题验收在理论上对科技项目机会主义行为治理存在促进效应，但这些要素的促进功能还存在一定不足。基于我国科研人员样本数据，借助结构方程模型，分析科技项目机会主义行为治理的微观机理，指出科技项目资源配置的优化方向，从科技管理微观层面提出机会主义行为治理策略，以提升我国科技项目研发效率，优化我国科技资源整体配置。     

事业单位固定资产和无形资产会计核算改革目标及其方法探讨

固定资产和无形资产会计核算改革应达到的目标包括:适应预算管理的要求、适应资产长期性管理的特点、适应资产价值逐渐减少的特点、适应事业性活动和经营性活动对资产核算的不同要求等。为满足这一改革目标要求的主要经济业务的会计分录模式包括购入、价值摊销、为事业性活动服务与为经营性活动服务之间的转移、变卖处置等。     

Globalization and State: Four Paradigmatic Views

Any adequate analysis of globalization and state necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of globalization and state. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to globalization and state is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of globalization and state which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of globalization and state from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of globalization and state, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

公益林生态服务市场补偿政策研究

文章论述了公益林生态服务市场补偿政策的理论依据,认为政府政策创新是公益林生态服务市场补偿的基础,政府应制订公益林生态服务交易制度,明确规定公益林生态服务的权利和义务;并且提出政府要规定企业二氧化碳的排放标准和公益林水文生态服务补偿主体,制订自然保护区配额交易政策等。     

大力扶持"微型企业":我国民营经济发展中需要重视的一问题

作者在对“微型企业”的含义及其在解决贫困和失业方面的重要作用说明的基础上,重点对我国在促进民营经济发展中应如何借鉴部分国家和地区的经验,建立起包括“技术(业务)支持和商业服务体系”、“微型金融服务与支持体系”和“政府政策支持体系”等三个构成部分的“微型企业”综合培育体系作了研究。     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Advances in evolution and genetics: Implications for technology strategy

Genetic and evolutionary principles are of great importance to technology strategists, both directly (as in the forecasting of genetic engineering technologies) and as a source of metaphor and perspective on socio-technical change. Recent rapid progress in the molecular sciences have revealed new genetic mechanisms of evolution, and introduced new controversies of interpretation. How do these recent developments affect technology forecasting and our view of technological evolution? This paper provides a quick primer for TFSC readers on several new developments in evolution and genetics, comments upon a number of common misconceptions and pitfalls in evolutionary thinking, and critically describes some controversies and open questions, introducing key readings and sources. It relates genetic and evolutionary knowledge, analogies and metaphors to areas of interest to researchers in technology forecasting and assessment, noting possible future directions. The paper concludes with an overview of the other papers in this special section.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.