Intertemporal substitution in consumption, labor supply elasticity and sunspot fluctuations in continuous-time models

The aim of this paper is to discuss the roles of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of the labor supply on the local determinacy properties of the steady state in a two-sector economy with constant elasticity of substitution technologies and sector-specific externalities. Our main results provide necessary and sufficient conditions for local indeterminacy. First, we show that the consumption good sector needs to be capital intensive at the private level and labor intensive at the social level. Second, we prove that under this capital intensity configuration, the existence of sunspot fluctuations is obtained if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough but the elasticity of the labor supply is low enough. In particular, we will show on the one hand that when the labor supply is infinitely elastic, the steady state is always saddle-point stable, and on the other hand that when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is infinite, labor does not have any influence on the local stability properties of the equilibrium path.     

Time preference and two-country trade

We present a dynamic two-country model of international trade with endogenous time preference. We show that if the two countries have similar preferences, production technologies and labor endowments, there exists a unique and stable steady state such that both consumption and investment goods are produced in both countries. Unlike the case of constant time preferences, the steady state is independent of the initial international distribution of capital. We prove a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem such that the labor-abundant country exports the labor-intensive good.     

Golden Rules of Wages

We consider a neoclassical growth model where labor collectively chooses labor share to maximize its steady‐state wage rate. In the basic two‐factor model, labor maximizes the steady‐state wage rate by setting labor share equal to the elasticity of output with respect to labor. This is precisely the competitive outcome. Only when we consider the model with organized and unorganized labor types can organized labor raise its steady‐state wage by choosing a higher than competitive labor share. Organized labor can benefit by choosing a higher labor share only at the expense of unorganized workers; not capital. We also analyze a version of the model that incorporates a tradeoff between collective bargaining opportunities and skill acquisition. All else equal, a higher skill premium leads organized labor to choose a higher labor share. Organized labor benefits again at the expense of skilled workers; not capital.     

产品内分工的生产组织模式选择——基于中国产业角度的实证研究

本文基于不完全契约和交易成本的视角,构建了产业层面的产品内分工生产组织模式选择的理论模型,对跨国公司在选择中间品供应商时的生产组织模式进行了分析,并运用中国制造业的数据加以实证检验。结论表明:中间品行业的有形资本密集度越高,跨国公司使用垂直FDI的倾向越高;中间品行业的人力资本密集度越高、行业的市场厚度越大、沉没成本越大以及中间品市场环境越完善,跨国公司使用外包获取中间品的倾向越高。基于此本文通过实证分析指出:我国作为东道国在吸引垂直FDI和跨国外包时,资本密集度高的产业应优先吸收FDI;人力资本丰富、市场厚度大且沉没成本大的产业在吸收外包方面有优势,应优先发展跨国外包,这对中国目前新兴起的OFDI也提供了一定的借鉴意义。     

The rise of the service sector in China

This paper analyzes the underlying mechanisms that explain the rise of the service sector in China. Along with China’s unprecedented growth, the rapid expansion of its service sector is one of the fastest among emerging countries. However, the literature has yet to offer a clear understanding of such expansion. We show that distribution services first grow with the manufacturing sector, followed by personal services as per capita income rises. Motivated by this growth pattern, this paper provides a theory that describes 1) the complementarity between distribution services and the manufacturing sector, and 2) the substitution between personal services and home production. Empirics show that the personal service sector is the key to account for the early and rapid rise of the service sector in China. Quantitatively, high productivity growth and high capital intensity in the personal service sector, and labor market frictions are the most important channels. By revealing the growth pattern of the service sector in the early stages of development, the paper thereby contributes to the growing literature on the rising importance of the service economy.     

A reapraisal of the capital goods sector in Hong Kong: The case for free trade

This paper was provoked by an earlier one by Fransman (1982) in which he examined the functioning of the capital goods sector in Hong Kong and came to the conclusion that it needed special protection by the government to allow it to reap the benefits of externalities essential for increasing its design and production capabilities. Statistical evidence is provided indicating that the capital goods sector as conventionally defined is prospering. Even following Fransman (1982), and equating the capital goods sector with the machine-producing sector, the latest survey of production indicates considerable dynamism. His case for infant industry protection is further weakened by consideration of the nature of the particular industrial structure of Hong Kong and the quality of the social relations that prevail between entrepreneurs. It is argued that the costs of singling out the capital goods sector for special treatment in terms of the impact of the highly competitive export-oriented manufacturing sector are likely to be high, while the theoretical benefits from externalities are liable to be illusory in a small economy.     

The Impact of Research and Development on Economic Growth and Productivity in the U.S. States

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056–0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82–211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70–80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own‐ and other‐R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own‐state R&D elasticity but the highest other‐R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors.     

Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods to investigate the effects of unanticipated and anticipated tax reforms. First, an unanticipated tax reform produces an expansion of GDP, labor, and investment, while an anticipated tax reform has opposite effects before the implementation of the labor tax cut. Quantitatively, if the traded sector is more capital intensive, GDP increases by 1.6 percentage points or declines by 2.7 percentage points after three years, depending on whether the tax cut is unanticipated or anticipated. Second, we find that GDP change masks a wide dispersion in sectoral output responses. As long as investment is both traded and non traded, a tax reform substantially raises the relative size of the non-traded sector after three years while traded output always drops. Third, a tax reform improves welfare in all scenarios, more so if the markup is endogenous, but less so if the shock is anticipated. Importantly, we find that welfare gains in a two-sector economy with capital accumulation and perfect access to external borrowing are between 39 % and 89 % higher than those in an economy without physical capital.     

REPORT OF THE WORKING PARTY ON THE ACCESSION OF CHINA (Ⅱ)

7.Pricing Policies 50. Some members of the Working Party noted that China had made extensive use of price controls, for example in the agricultural sector. Those members requested that China undertake specific commitments concerning its system of state pricing. In particular, those members stated that China should allow prices for traded goods and services in every sector to be determined by market forces, and multi-tier pricing practices for such goods and services should be eliminated. Those members n...     

Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited

This paper applies the Feldstein-Horioka criterion, that is, the role of savings-investment correlations, to assess the degree of financial integration in the European Community. We establish a link between the Feldstein-Horioka criterion and three other criteria for financial integration: the covered, uncovered, and real interest parity condition. Subsequently, we evaluate the Feldstein-Horioka criterion for financial integration on the basis of its underlying assumptions. The paper performs both cross-section and time-series analyses of savings-investment correlations. The time-series analysis relies on the concept of cointegration. Our major finding is that the Feldstein-Horioka criterion—contrary to what is usually found in world financial markets—is able to explain an increasing degree of financial integration in the European Community.Symbols S gross national savings - I gross domestic investment - C total private and government final consumption expenditure - M import of goods and services - X export of goods and services - Y gross domestic product - CA current account of the balance of payments - GNP gross national product - NCT net current transfers from the rest of the world - NFI net factor income from the rest of the world - FCF gross fixed capital formation - ST increase in stocks - S_p gross national savings by the private sector - S_g gross national savings by the public sector - I_p gross domestic investment by the private sector - I_g gross domestic investment by the government sector - corrected for a nonzero value of the statistical discrepancy     

贸易自由化与中国劳动需求弹性:基于制造业企业数据的实证分析

本文采用中国制造业企业1998-2007年的微观面板数据,研究贸易自由化对企业劳动需求弹性的影响.我们将中国加入世界贸易组织视为一次自然实验,以加工进口企业为“控制组”,以一般进口企业为“处理组”,采用倍差法和固定效应模型进行回归分析.结果显示,贸易自由化通过提高资本品和中间产品的可获得性,显著提高了劳动需求弹性.进口关税下降越多,企业的劳动需求弹性提高也越多.     

Jobs for the skilled: how technology, trade and domestic demand changed the structure of UK employment, 1979-90

A new method is developed for allocating the changing use ofskills among final demand growth, trade and technological change.In a multi-sector framework the skills content of intermediateand capital goods purchased is captured through input-outputdata. Technological change is measured through the changinguse of labour, within the sector and in its purchased inputs.Three skill levels are identified from detailed occupations.Domestic demand growth (employment-creating) and technologicalchange (labour-saving) both show marked skill-bias. The effectsof trade are small. Most strikingly, the services sector generateshigh-skilled even more than low-skilled jobs, and new employmentthrough supply chains.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE CLUBS, AND THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

This paper aims to show and test the existence of a povertytrap linked to the development of the banking sector. Our theoreticalmodel exhibits multiple steady state equilibria due to a reciprocalexternality between the banking sector and the real sector.Growth in the real sector causes the financial market to expand,thereby increasing banking competition and efficiency. In return,the development of the banking sector raises the net yield onsavings and enhances capital accumulation and growth. The aimof our econometric tests is to check the existence of multiplesteady states associated with financial and educational development.     

Enhancing productive capabilities through intra-regional trade and cross-border investments in Southern Africa

Regional integration is an important factor for enabling knowledge flows between economies and enhancing the capacity of firms within the integrated block to benefit from local knowledge spillovers. This study analyses data on economic interactions between Botswana and its technologically more advanced southern neighbour, South Africa, to examine the extent to which knowledge flows facilitated by geographical proximity translate into fostering technological learning and productivity of manufacturing firms. Industry- and firm-level data on bilateral capital goods trade and investments over the period 1991–2013 are used to assess the technological learning of the manufacturing sector in Botswana. This study also applies the Hunt, J, &; Tybout, J (1999. Does Promoting High-Tech Products Spur Development? FEEM Working Paper REG 42. Milan: Fondazione Eni EnricoMattei) technological sophistication framework to analyse the role played by regional trade and investment flows between the economies of South Africa and Botswana in the skills intensification of manufacturing firms. Skills intensity decomposition reveals that Botswana’s manufacturing technical intensity has been positively influenced by the extent of capital goods trade and investment linkages with South African economy.     

The Leontief paradox in a multi-country setting: Comments

Conclusions Apart from the commodity mix effect, exports, imports consumption and production respond identically to changes in relative capital endowment, regardless of whether one refers to physical capital, human capital or total capital. Hence, when allowing technology and product mix to vary, one cannot distinguish between export goods and import goods in terms of capital intensity. These conclusions are still in agreement with Hirsch [1977, p. 418] who argues “Poor countries export low capital-intensive and import high capital-intensive goods, while rich countries import low capital-intensive and export high capital-intensive goods.” The only response that is significantly different is due to the commodity mix effect.     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

陕西省制造业与生产性服务业融合程度研究——基于投入产出模型的测算

依据陕西省投入产出表,按照行业分类标准,将制造业各部门按照劳动、资本和技术密集程度进行划分,测算细分部门间两业融合发展程度.通过计算投入产出系数,对比产业间前后关联程度.结果表明:陕西省制造业与生产性服务业融合度不高,制造业部门的发展更多地依赖自身,与生产性服务业部门联系不紧密,其中制造业对传统型生产性服务业中间需求高,而新型生产性服务业和制造业前向关联度较弱,对制造业部门的拉动作用不明显.总体上来看,当前阶段两业融合水平较低.     

Capital goods manufacture and the choice of technique in the maize - milling industry

The article discusses the structure of the market for milled maize products, emphasizing that products embody different levels of service as well as different physical characteristics. Different levels of capital intensity may be obtained by selecting alternative sources of supply for plant and machinery - this is especially important for a merchant mill producing a refined product, the core process of which is often regarded as technically rigid. A detailed comparison of Indian and West European equipment shows that for the market prices considered, the Indian equipment is likely to be preferred. The interrelationship between the structure of the capital goods sector, the rate of technical progress and choice of technique issues is discussed.     

Role of Endogenous Vintage Specific Depreciation in the Optimal Behavior of Firms

This paper studies the firms' capital accumulation process in a vintage capital model with embodied technological change. We take into account that depreciation is endogenous and in particular associated with vintage specific maintenance expenditure. We prove that maintenance is a local substitute for investment as soon as the marginal cost of maintenance is strictly increasing. We show that maintenance and investment in new capital goods appear as complements with respect to the changes in productivity, cost of maintenance, fixed cost of operation, efficiency of maintenance services and appear as substitutes with respect to the price of new machines. Allowing for investment in old vintages, we determine that investment in old machines appears as a substitute of both investments in new machines and maintenance services. We end up by analyzing the effects of technological progress on optimal plans and prove that a negative anticipation effect can occur even without any market imperfections.